Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

What factors go into drawing that midline?

"GF Value is an intrinsic value developed by GuruFocus, using our internal algorithm based on three factors: Historical multiples (PE Ratio, PS Ratio, PB Ratio and Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow). GuruFocus adjustment factor based on the past returns and growth. Future estimates of performance."

GF Value for SP500 Index - GuruFocus.com > sp500-gf-value​

 

[Opus BC fan]

It is time to have a sustained continuation of today's SP trend...

 

[EQC_]

Still going... 237 by morning according to my "Analysis."

View attachment 967167

Nice! I expect a continuation of this $13 per day increase! Or should it be exponential?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I like your posts, but I'm pretty sure there's a rule about linking to your own social media here - especially now that X is for profit for creators. The mods frown on this forum being used as a distribution channel.

Mods - If I'm wrong please community note me.

Correct. No more promotion of personal X accounts. If members have something useful to say they can post it on the social medium called TMC, instead of linking to the social medium called X.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Verizon will continue to outperform Tesla over the year, says MAI Capital's Chris Grisanti

Chris Grisanti, chief equity strategist at MAI Capital Management, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss his bet that Tesla will underperform Verizon, Verizon offering a higher dividend than its P/E ratio, and more.

www.cnbc.com

So...he's saying a stock that is down 18% YTD is going to outperform $TSLA that is up 114% YTD? How can this even compare these 2 stocks? I forgot, CNBS loves to have Tesla in it's headlines.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think it really comes down to - Did hedgies get enough of a draw down to be content and flip their shorts/bearish puts to calls or do they still want to hope for more a macro drawdown and have TSLA test the 200 day?

When its feeding time at the Zoo, the elephant gets his way while the chickens are pecking at the side of the road.

Lion == The FED (offscreen and to the Right)

Cheers to the Zookeepers!

 

[Prunesquallor]

So let me set the record straight for you. I post all by myself and I post what I think. You’re not new here and certainly have the ability to look at my posting history. There’s a clear, individual pattern.

I’ve been very clear in previous posts about the level of truth and fact coming from the Internet, media, analysts, articles etc., etc.,

Now, rather than try and change the conversation just provide some concrete evidence that what you posted was entirely factual. Here’s a hint for you: someone already tried to do that for you, however, the truth they uncovered was a bit different than you presented.

Finally, surely you jest that I have or might have a Tesla investment problem. Once again, a look at my posting history would clear that assumption right up for you.

Adding: the only TSLA or Tesla risk left worth being concerned about is what WallStreet types and their country club buddies decide to do.

In a few years, you will be able to buy the state within which your mountain resides.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The cybertruck launch will be a big deal for TSLA, but in my view the beginning of distribution is not the key moment for investment effects. That key moment occurs with the release of the specs for the trucks, and the selling prices. At that point we can estimate the degree of success expected.

The stock market often front runs actual news. It’s the ”buy the rumor, sell the news” effect, which seems to happen more often than not with TSLA.

So the beginning of Cybertruck distribution could easily be the reason for positive TSLA movement. Remember that most stock market players know nothing compared to what we know, so Cybertruck deliveries are going to be news coming out of the blue for them.

Personally, I think the Highland rumors are also affecting the stock price. There are rumors out there of seriously higher Model 3 margins which result in significantly lower prices, resulting in significant Model 3 volumes, all starting in about 6 weeks. This is much more in the rumor camp than Cybertruck deliveries (which ARE happening), but nonetheless could be huge if true.

 

[Artful Dodger]

but it's just a rehashing of the recent Starlink donation saga

Wait, I can't keep up. Is that the starlink donations to Ukraine, or reconnecting Tonga after the volcanic eruption? Perhaps its the Maui hurricane starlink donations for 1st-responders and NGOs? Or maybe First Nations in Northern Canada getting telepresence in schools? Or Amazon tribes connecting their society to the world-wide-web for the very first time in history?

Nawh, it's definately reviving hospitals in Puerto Rico with powerpacks, solar, and starlink. That was evil*. /s

Cheers to the Fringes!

*if you're a grid utility

 

[Prunesquallor]

Fast forward, history will tell us, Ford, F currently trading at price first reached in 1993 (30 years ago), and General Motors, GM currently trading at price below their IPO date of 2010 (13 years ago), and Stellantis, STLA currently trading at price first reached in 2017, will fail faster than anyone believes. Their bread and butter, pickup trucks, will be outsold by Tesla combined in just a few short years. The looming strike by UAW representing 150,000 blue collar auto workers with current contract expiring September 14th, do not see the headlights of the Cybertruck in their rear view mirror. They are not even looking. And the Cybertruck is coming up fast.

This is concerning regarding UAW's approach:
View attachment 967095

‘We are burned out’: UAW ready to take on automakers in contract negotiations

Amid record profits, workers want to roll back concessions made to auto industry after the 2008 economic recession

www.theguardian.com

Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway just sold almost half their investment stake in GM, likely due to their slow transition to EVs and the looming strike. Hey Warren, come over to Tesla. We'll save you a seat.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway cuts its stake in GM almost in half

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold nearly half of its holdings in GM. Here are some possible reasons why.

www.freep.com

A 3-margarita question. It just seems the US EV competition has vaporized. Ford is hemorrhaging money and GM can’t get anything out the door. Is there a point where the market actually realizes this? Is the hybrid hammer coming? What’s the endgame?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Still going... 237 by morning according to my "Analysis."

View attachment 967167

Hope you’re right. Did a very unusual (for me) short play to get some folding cash. We’ll see.

 

[jerry33]

Wait, I can't keep up. Is that the starlink donations to Ukraine, or reconnecting Tonga after the volcanic eruption? Perhaps its the Maui hurricane starlink donations for 1st-responders and NGOs? Or maybe First Nations in Northern Canada getting telepresence in schools? Or Amazon tribes connecting their society to the world-wide-web for the very first time in history?

Nawh, it's definately reviving hospitals in Puerto Rico with powerpacks, solar, and starlink. That was evil*. /s

Cheers to the Fringes!

*if you're a grid utility

You're sure it's not L.A. and the hurricane? After all, that would save a ton of shipping costs.

 

[jerry33]

A 3-margarita question. It just seems the US EV competition has vaporized. Ford is hemorrhaging money and GM can’t get anything out the door. Is there a point where the market actually realizes this? Is the hybrid hammer coming? What’s the endgame?

I doubt those who haven't bought a hybrid to date, will now start to buy them. Ford may get some Prius->Ford hybrid sales.

 

[Prunesquallor]

You and I feel this way, but my impression is this is the big push for ICE survival now.

 

[lazybot]

It seems to be mostly factual, but at the same time, devoid of meaning. The headline reads like some sort of deep investigative journalism (which everyone also assumes because of the author), but it's just a rehashing of the recent Starlink donation saga, and then some random ramblings about Elon's adolescence and early career.

Farrow's main point is that it's a problem that a private citizen is relied upon so much; but it's bizarre to blame Elon for being indispensable.

Nothing salacious, and as a result it's not gaining much traction on social media. You see a few "Oooh, an exposé by Ronan Farrow" posts, and then no follow-up because everybody went in expecting a scandal and came out with nothing new.

The article comes off as a shallow and selective narration of facts with a one sided perspective. Elon's perspective on these facts, which he has talked about in depth on multiple interviews and tweets is severely missing. It presents an alarmist view of the dominance of Tesla and SpaceX with out even a mention of the mission and the achievements of these companies. Elon is the ultimate Rorschach test and Farrow does not do well.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I doubt those who haven't bought a hybrid to date, will now start to buy them. Ford may get some Prius->Ford hybrid sales.

I was doing some ICE catalog shopping over the weekend (don’t ask … well if you must, then realize there are university campuses around the country that have zero EV charging infrastructure on them … we are still in the early innings), and I found that if you want a respectable horsepower engine for many vehicles, then the hybrid version of whatever is your only choice. I suspect this all has to do with fleet emission and fuel economy rules, but pure ICE high horsepower engines are getting pretty rare already.

By high horsepower, I mean 0-60 in the 4.5 second range, like a long range Model Y. I’m not talking supercar stuff.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yeah, the range of like 175-300 is a zone of boring for me. Not going to do either way. Below 175 and I'll pick up far out LEAPS, especially as further dated LEAPS open up. Share price north of 300 is when I'll start selling covered calls on my shares for income. Everything in between is like watching paint dry for me

Nice pop there at the end with volume. That was the type of end of day I was hoping to see. Took a lot of volume at the very last second to make sure the stock didn't close at the exact high of the day. Overall pretty productive day. The stock dropped enough intraday close enough to close the gap from open and then rebounded.

To touch on this a bit further, would be really nice if we didn't break that uptrend low because we would be in a really nice and clearly defined uptrend channel with about 200 basis points spread between the high and low of the channel.

I would probably implement a divesting and reinvesting strategy where I would sell covered calls on a tranche of shares every time we hit the upper part of the channel and then when/if the share price hits the bottom of the channel, pick up far dated LEAPS, put the proceeds into something very safe that'll get me 5-6% interest for 2 years and then exercise those LEAPS.

Rinse and repeat.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

More good news on the inflation front - especially core inflation

MSN

 

[Artful Dodger]

What’s the endgame?

dunno, but I'll bet it involves bankrupcies, bailouts, and golden parachutes.

P.S. Can the UAW go bankrupt?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Based on what? The people watching the factory seem to think they are currently making 6-10 per day.

First I heard. That's great if true.