Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Snerruc]

My service invoice said "REMAN" on it, if I recall. Not sure if the pack decal does or not...

I never had any paperwork. They just hauled the car in and changed the battery. Loaner was all in the app.

 

[jim0266]

i though the same just had my HV battery replaced last week on Model S (49000 miles) .. new 100KWH pack ... i hope it is rare
SC did claim it was a new battery ... not sure how I could verify this

ScanMyTesla

 

[Drumheller]

It seems to me that it makes financial sense, with respect to factory costs and ramping a new vehicle line, for Tesla to not deliver any cybertrucks to customers until October 1st. Same with Highland.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Curious....if out of warranty battery pack replacements cost us $18K, does Tesla take a $18K charge on each of these in-warranty claims?

Probably have been continuously reserving for projected warranty expenses for all items, including batteries.

 

[raffiniert]

The cybertruck launch will be a big deal for TSLA, but in my view the beginning of distribution is not the key moment for investment effects. That key moment occurs with the release of the specs for the trucks, and the selling prices. At that point we can estimate the degree of success expected.

I would buy one for 150k here in Switzerland if it would be available.
More for the Van.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Dan Ives was on CNBC this morning and they asked him to explain. He listed -
1) price cuts are in the rear view mirror
2) chinese demand appears to be ticking upwards

Not sure I agree with either of those but he had to say something

Or maybe because....

Big $$ was made on puts/shorts and now it's 'let's turn things positive' since we have made enough $ for now.

 

[2daMoon]

Yep. I'll say it. After watching the reflection of those flat panels, I foresee a great deal of drama from the MM about how dangerous and blinding the sun reflections off the flat SS CT panels are for surrounding "victims"...you heard it here first!

It will be worse with the CT, as the victims are already wide-eyed while experiencing the "what the heck is THAT!" state of initial exposure.

​

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

While it was nice to see the stock hold up while the macro's sold off a bit this morning, we're now getting that dynamic of volume drying up rapidly + TSLA not following the macro's higher.

Tells me hedgies are not done yet trying to take it down to test further support levels. Also, going to be humorous to see MM's actually step in now to try and pin point max pain when they did nothing to help for the past 3 weeks

 

[2daMoon]

While it was nice to see the stock hold up while the macro's sold off a bit this morning, we're now getting that dynamic of volume drying up rapidly + TSLA not following the macro's higher.

Tells me hedgies are not done yet trying to take it down to test further support levels. Also, going to be humorous to see MM's actually step in now to try and pin point max pain when they did nothing to help for the past 3 weeks

Yeah, I see what you mean... tell me more

(wink wink, nudge nudge, Murphy may be listening to you)

 

[GhostSkater]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1693684848639062043

 

[wipster]

Yep. I'll say it. After watching the reflection of those flat panels, I foresee a great deal of drama from the MM about how dangerous and blinding the sun reflections off the flat SS CT panels are for surrounding "victims"...you heard it here first!

And watch out for what happens when you connect with 1.21 Gigawatts while going 88 mph!

 

[wipster]

The same way many didn’t expect China to allow Tesla to build a factory in China without a Chinese partner.

Just because something has been a certain way doesn’t mean it will remain the same. Nothing is static, not even the Chinese government.

The world is changing. Fast. Elon wields a lot of power, as does Tesla and SpaceX and, and. Some people don’t like that. In the end it’s not going to matter what they like and even less what they post. Point being, that channel isn’t any more important than any other Internet channel.

The times they are a'changin' while the answer my friend is blowin' in the wind...

 

[EQC_]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1693684848639062043

Do you by chance mind summarizing the key points of the threads here?

Just using the web (not app) and with no account, twitter/X seems to only let me view individual tweets. No threads, no replies, etc.... But your info, I suspect, is likely valuable for those of us followin and investing in Tesla.

 

[Buckminster]

Do you by chance mind summarizing the key points of the threads here?

Just using the web (not app) and with no account, twitter/X seems to only let me view individual tweets. No threads, no replies, etc.... But your info, I suspect, is likely valuable for those of us followin and investing in Tesla.

The money shot:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1693684868398399854

Charging time wise from 10-80% it's like this:Model 3 Panasonic - 24 minModel Y LG - 32 minModel Y 4680 - 38 minModel Y 4680 Best Case - 21 minModel Y 4680 Worst Case - 24 min

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yeah, I see what you mean... tell me more

(wink wink, nudge nudge, Murphy may be listening to you)

I'd love to be a contrarian indicator

I think it really comes down to - Did hedgies get enough of a draw down to be content and flip their shorts/bearish puts to calls or do they still want to hope for more a macro drawdown and have TSLA test the 200 day?

If it's the former, flipping their bets from bearish to bullish could put too much pressure on MM's to pin the stock below the current 230 Call Wall. We'll see tomorrow what happens with Open Interest/Volume chart

 

[GhostSkater]

Do you by chance mind summarizing the key points of the threads here?

Just using the web (not app) and with no account, twitter/X seems to only let me view individual tweets. No threads, no replies, etc.... But your info, I suspect, is likely valuable for those of us followin and investing in Tesla.

Sure, the charging times were already posted

But the biggest TLDR is that Tesla is being ultra conservative on the 4680 charging curve, we can only speculate why

Maybe avoiding risks, maybe making the 4680 Model Y not a good deal due to the limited availability, although this doesn't make much sense because unless the customer goes into a deep dive it won't know how bad it charges currently

I see no technical reason for it at least no be a little bit better, at least on par with the LG packs coming out of Shanghai and Berlin, which aren't good chargers, at 32 minutes 10-80%

But 10-80% on 38 to 41 minutes for the Model Y 4680 in 2023 is bad, shameful even for Tesla to put on the market

Would like to hear if you guys have any other ideas

But, the new Cybercell should lower internal resistance a bit due to using DBE on anode and cathode, so the next clue will be for Cybertruck deliveries do happen and someone to record a charging session, even on V3 Supercharger will give us clues

Would be quite bad for Cybertruck to have a charging curve similar to that one, since a bigger pack on a V3 Supercharger would mean even more than 40 minutes 10-80%

 

[Usain]

Market for storage similar to EVs, Tesla and Chinese companies at the top:

Six Chinese companies were among top 10 global energy storage system suppliers in 2023H1 | Shanghai Non ferrous Metals

According to SMM statistics, the global energy storage system shipments in 2023H1 reached 72.4 Gwh. China’s shipments were 47Gwh, accounting for 65%; overseas shipments were 25.4Gwh, accounting for 35%; global energy storage system shipments were still dominated by Chinese integrators. Tesla’s...

news.metal.com

Article based on the above with some context:

Wie bei Elektroautos: Tesla führt Weltmarkt für stationäre Akkus an, großer Rest aus China

Laut einer Studie ist Tesla bei stationären Akkus weltweiter Marktführer – wie bei Elektroautos direkt vor BYD und weiterer China-Konkurrenz.

teslamag-de.translate.goog

I'm anxious to see Tesla break ground on the Megapack factory in China. Opening a factory there will say a lot about Tesla's confidence that they can compete against the toughest competition in a crowded market.

If Tesla thought they didn't have anything unique to offer then they would just concentrate on North America and Europe.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Fast forward, history will tell us, Ford, F currently trading at price first reached in 1993 (30 years ago), and General Motors, GM currently trading at price below their IPO date of 2010 (13 years ago), and Stellantis, STLA currently trading at price first reached in 2017, will fail faster than anyone believes. Their bread and butter, pickup trucks, will be outsold by Tesla combined in just a few short years. The looming strike by UAW representing 150,000 blue collar auto workers with current contract expiring September 14th, do not see the headlights of the Cybertruck in their rear view mirror. They are not even looking. And the Cybertruck is coming up fast.

This is concerning regarding UAW's approach:

‘We are burned out’: UAW ready to take on automakers in contract negotiations

Amid record profits, workers want to roll back concessions made to auto industry after the 2008 economic recession

www.theguardian.com

Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway just sold almost half their investment stake in GM, likely due to their slow transition to EVs and the looming strike. Hey Warren, come over to Tesla. We'll save you a seat.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway cuts its stake in GM almost in half

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold nearly half of its holdings in GM. Here are some possible reasons why.

www.freep.com

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Fast forward, history will tell us, Ford, F currently trading at price first reached in 1993 (30 years ago), and General Motors, GM currently trading at price below their IPO date of 2010 (13 years ago), and Stellantis STLA, (currently trading at price first reached in 2017) will fail faster than anyone believes. Their bread and butter, pickup trucks, will be outsold by Tesla combined in just a few short years. The looming strike by UAW representing 150,000 blue collar auto workers with current contract expiring September 14th, do not see the headlights of the Cybertruck in their rear view mirror. They are not even looking. And the Cybertruck is coming up fast.

This is concerning regarding UAW's approach:
View attachment 967095

‘We are burned out’: UAW ready to take on automakers in contract negotiations

Amid record profits, workers want to roll back concessions made to auto industry after the 2008 economic recession

www.theguardian.com

Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway just sold almost half their investment stake in GM, likely due to their slow transition to EVs and the looming strike. Hey Warren, come over to Tesla. We'll save you a seat.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway cuts its stake in GM almost in half

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold nearly half of its holdings in GM. Here are some possible reasons why.

www.freep.com

If/When Warren decides to start building a position in TSLA, I think it will be because of Energy, specifically the economics around large scale deployment combined with software for royalties (the combination of Megpack + Autobidder driving recurring software revenue for Tesla). I also think once Insurance gets rolled out to at least half of the states and the adoption numbers increase, it will be another reason for Warren to increase his stake.

Warren seems like too much of a dinosaur to invest because of EVs/Auto sector. He just can't really fathom everything needed from the start in a car to transition it to software recurring revenue. As in, you have to lay the groundwork many many years in advance in order to flip the switch and start reaping significant recurring software revenue on car.

 

[Nocturnal]

If/When Warren decides to start building a position in TSLA, I think it will be because of Energy, specifically the economics around large scale deployment combined with software for royalties (the combination of Megpack + Autobidder driving recurring software revenue for Tesla). I also think once Insurance gets rolled out to at least half of the states and the adoption numbers increase, it will be another reason for Warren to increase his stake.

Warren seems like too much of a dinosaur to invest because of EVs/Auto sector. He just can't really fathom everything needed from the start in a car to transition it to software recurring revenue. As in, you have to lay the groundwork many many years in advance in order to flip the switch and start reaping significant recurring software revenue on car.

If Tesla insurance and Tesla energy start eating into his insurance and utility profits he may not have a choice.