Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[insaneoctane]

Well, I went on record before Elon's livestream saying I wasn't expecting much. I was pleasantly surprised by what I saw, much more than I was expecting. I see why Elon was hyping v12 now. I hope this pans out to be everything we all want it to be. I'm anxious to try v12 myself, but certainly don't want it too early (unsafe), but the video I saw implies it might be ready for early adopters in weeks, not years. Tesla always has me waiting....

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

So what is the licensing fee going to be? What amount will be deemed ‘fair’ by Elon particularly when we consider he’s given Tesla SuperCharging Network away for free to OEMs.

‘free’ and when the SCs have enough mega packs & solar Tesla will be making money off all the OEMs….when they actually make some vehicles. I’d imagine there is a plan for AI

 

[Gigapress]

Big price cuts to Megapacks (~20% cuts) prices. And apparently wait times have decreased.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1695225600821101035

Not good for the uberbullish proclamations of > 50% gross margins. This likely cuts gross margins in half.

Still profitable, but likely in the 25% range.

Not great for future earnings growth.

The fact that Tesla had room to cut prices by 22% adds credibility to the estimates of >50% margins for Megapack hardware at the previous prices.

This new starting price is still $375/kWh, with some bulk discounts for larger purchases. Also, there's still the $45/kWh US tax credit, so the actual revenue per kWh is $420/kWh. 25% gross margin on $420/kWh would mean Tesla's cost is $315/kWh. I would bet their actual cost is much lower than that, or at least it will be when mass production matures. Tesla makes car battery packs for far less than $315/kWh, and car batteries should be more expensive than stationary storage batteries because they are smaller and because the engineering requirements are much stricter. I mean, the price of the LFP cells themselves is around $100/kWh. I really doubt the rest of the cost structure adds up to over $200/kWh.

Additionally, the profitability model presented by JPSartre and ZeroSumGame had much of the profit coming after installation from the high-margin services. Have the prices of those services changed?

If we use a more reasonable guess of cost, like $200/kWh, with addition service profit accruing afterwards, then we still yield gross margin >50%.

What's truly exciting, in the bigger picture, is that Megapacks are extremely popular with customers at such a high price point. If it's this easy for utilities to close the business case at these prices, then imagine how easy it'll be when the price is cut in half in the coming years.

 

[Robertj]

Tesla’s FSD training computer gets added power Monday

https://x.com/tim_zaman/status/1695488119729238147?s=61

 

[EQC_]

So what is the licensing fee going to be? What amount will be deemed ‘fair’ by Elon particularly when we consider he’s given Tesla SuperCharging Network away for free to OEMs.

Using my optimistic mindset: Tesla keeps raising the price for "just the software" for FSD for their own customers...since, technically the cameras and computer are part of every Tesla. I have exactly zero experience in monopoly-type law ... But if Tesla can justify directly charging Tesla buyers $15K for FSD software, then they can certainly justify charging other OEMs $14,999 for that same software and it wouldn't look anti-competitive. That OEM can choose how to price it for their own customers. Additionally, those other OEMs might have to pay Tesla directly for some of the hardware, in addition to that $14,999 software price, if they dont want to develop their own.

Tesla could also offer the subscription model for those other OEMs. They might still purchase the hardware from Tesla, and their customers end up paying Tesla the full subscription price to use it.

And Tesla would still be free to raise prices whenever they choose, for both their own customers and the OEMs.

Again...optimism mode...but I see big potential for Tesla to benefit.

On the supercharger comparison: at least we know/expect the "other" cars to pay the same for supercharger use...so why wouldn't we expect the "other" OEMs and their customers to pay the going rate for FSD software?

 

[cliff harris]

I havent watched the whole live stream, but its clear people are impressed. I always thought end to end NN was the final point, but easier said than done. As someone who has FSD but is in the UK, its REALLY frustrating to know how could it WOULD be, if they had it here... argghhh.

But on an investor note, this is great news. I now am advising my friends who bought some TSLA that there are THREE things that are coming up that are exciting potential SP catalysts:

1. Highland refresh will juice sales, and maybe put more price pressure on competitors, maybe increase production/square foot.
2. Cybertruck release will be the biggest auto-company free advertising in decades.
3. FSD 12 may finally turn out to be the one that gets financial types taking the potential of FSD seriously. (If not robotaxi, then at least massive boost to uptake for the FSD option by taxi drivers, and people who hate their commute).

A very good time to hold the stock.

 

[AudubonB]

Weekend Moderator Funny:

We went to a county fair yesterday where I encountered a sight - a sign - so perplexing that I truly cannot come up with any cogent explanation other than perhaps its creator wanted me with something to put in my quiver for the next time I need to address certain thread….disturbers. As follows, cross-my-heart-&-hope-to-die absolutely unaltered:

 

[Christine69420]

I wasn't clear enough, sorry. I considered E.U. as one country--just as the driving patterns are somewhat different in different cities in the U.S., countries frequently traveled between would be grouped together, but there's no need for a U.S. registered car to know about conditions is the E.U. China, or Australia, etc. I was referring to how many cars move registration from one country to another. Even U.S. to Canada (or reverse) is pretty uncommon though not unknown.

You should know that it is not uncommon to drive from Europe to China - or the oher way.

It is somewhat popular among Euro motorhome fans to bring their own van to the US.

 

[2daMoon]

Weekend Moderator Funny:

We went to a county fair yesterday where I encountered a sight - a sign - so perplexing that I truly cannot come up with any cogent explanation other than perhaps its creator wanted me with something to put in my quiver for the next time I need to address certain thread….disturbers. As follows, cross-my-heart-&-hope-to-die absolutely unaltered:
View attachment 968431

In the Cat world, it seems likely the term "Archery" would describe the unique feline art of arching their back with style, eloquence, and flexibility. Perhaps, adding a head turn or a tail swish for added emphasis and flair.

This sign may have represented the location for a class or a contest where cats may go strut their stuff.

There will be no argument about this as I made it up as I went

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Weekend Moderator Funny:

We went to a county fair yesterday where I encountered a sight - a sign - so perplexing that I truly cannot come up with any cogent explanation other than perhaps its creator wanted me with something to put in my quiver for the next time I need to address certain thread….disturbers. As follows, cross-my-heart-&-hope-to-die absolutely unaltered:
View attachment 968431

Did you happen to be in or near Charleston, AR?

There, CATS is apparently Charleston Archery in The Schools.

 

[AudubonB]

Nope! Though there remains after all these decades enormous post office mail confusion between {AK Alaska} and {AR Arkansas}

 

[Todd Burch]

The v12 FSD demonstration is a good indicator that Tesla is getting close. We have a little ways longer, but while this demo wasn't super-challenging, its performance given no control logic says Tesla is on the right track. George Hotz believes that the approach Tesla is taking is the way to go--and it appears to be.

Having said that, I don't think it will be an immediate catalyst for the stock. Wall Street is too short-sighted for that. I think it will not be until we start seeing it handle things like crossing guards, emergency vehicles, and construction zones that people will realize "oh wow, it is possible". Then and only then will the stock start rocketing upward. So I think we have another 6-12 months at least until FSD itself becomes a catalyst. It could go up for Cybertruck/Highland/other random reasons, but I don't think this demo alone will be much of a catalyst for the stock.

 

[Usain]

Tesla always has me waiting....

This ^^^

 

[Unpilot]

The v12 FSD demonstration is a good indicator that Tesla is getting close. We have a little ways longer, but while this demo wasn't super-challenging, its performance given no control logic says Tesla is on the right track. George Hotz believes that the approach Tesla is taking is the way to go--and it appears to be.

Having said that, I don't think it will be an immediate catalyst for the stock. Wall Street is too short-sighted for that. I think it will not be until we start seeing it handle things like crossing guards, emergency vehicles, and construction zones that people will realize "oh wow, it is possible". Then and only then will the stock start rocketing upward. So I think we have another 6-12 months at least until FSD itself becomes a catalyst. It could go up for Cybertruck/Highland/other random reasons, but I don't think this demo alone will be much of a catalyst for the stock.

I think you're right. IF there is one thing Wall Street is....it is short-sighted. I

n spite of all the fancy lingo and graphs to make you think they are not.

 

[Etna]

I wasn't happy with Elon's answer about Hardware 4. It makes me think that FSD beta on HW4 will require an all new training set and thus it will be a long time before Tesla has enough data to get it running.

It won't need to start from scratch. Neural Networks are made from multiple layers. The first few layers are those involving visual perception, while the next layers are about understanding the meaning of what is seen, the next layers are about what to do with it, etc. and it ends up with the layers involving decisions. Each layer has it own set of neuron weights acquired during training. Moving from HW3 to HW4 will involve retraining the lower image perception layers but most other layers can be preloaded with the weights dataset from HW3 so the retraining on HW4 should be a much faster process.

Warning: I just finished reading my first technical book on AI (from Yann Le Cun ) so I know just enough to believe I can comment on this topic but not enough yet to realize I shouldn't.

 

[Usain]

It won't need to start from scratch. Neural Networks are made from multiple layers. The first few layers are those involving visual perception, while the next layers are about understanding the meaning of what is seen, the next layers are about what to do with it, etc. and it ends up with the layers involving decisions. Each layer has it own set of neuron weights acquired during training. Moving from HW3 to HW4 will involve retraining the lower image perception layers but most other layers can be preloaded with the weights dataset from HW3 so the retraining on HW4 should be a much faster process.

Warning: I just finished reading my first technical book on AI (from Yann Le Cun ) so I know just enough to believe I can comment on this topic but not enough yet to realize I shouldn't.

I hope you are right! But I'm still not holding my breath that V12 on HW4 will be ready soon.

Before yesterday I was of the belief that the driving force behind FSD transfer was a desire to get FSD beta testers onto HW4 because they were going to need things like disengagement data on that platform. In other words, they wanted HW4 support to happen soon.

But now my opinion has changed because I think they are getting very close to nirvana on HW3. Ashok even seemed to indicate that ASS (Actually Smart Summon) was close to ready on HW3. So if I were Ashok and Elon I would put all my resources into getting V12 out the door. The payoff for demonstrating that it works on even a single platform is huge. So they are pushing ahead with HW3 as fast as possible.

 

[15Peter20]

Weekend Moderator Funny:

We went to a county fair yesterday where I encountered a sight - a sign - so perplexing that I truly cannot come up with any cogent explanation other than perhaps its creator wanted me with something to put in my quiver for the next time I need to address certain thread….disturbers. As follows, cross-my-heart-&-hope-to-die absolutely unaltered:
View attachment 968431

Krugerrand's safe room/arsenal?

 

[dhanson865]

Cybertruck production rate holding up, still pumping them out and loading up trucks. At least 11 in this picture and video of them loading the carrier below that.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1695504524058718584

 

[nativewolf]

Weekend Moderator Funny:

We went to a county fair yesterday where I encountered a sight - a sign - so perplexing that I truly cannot come up with any cogent explanation other than perhaps its creator wanted me with something to put in my quiver for the next time I need to address certain thread….disturbers. As follows, cross-my-heart-&-hope-to-die absolutely unaltered:
View attachment 968431

Finally a use for cats. BRILLIANT

 

[Buckminster]

Am I the only one getting confused between M3P the Tesla vehicle and M3P the CATL battery that might get used on the M3P Highland?

I mean there isn't anything to talk about at the moment...