Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NicoV]

Since this morning Tesla is giving 5000km supercharging for free if you take delivery of a Model S or X by the end of the month in Belgium, but probably also the rest of Europe.
There are 42 Model S’s available for immediate delivery, about half of them demo/showroom models.
I wonder if the next batch of Model S/X to arrive in Europe in 6 weeks or so will be 2024 models.

 

[mongo]

So yeah: the transition to highland 3 in Europe is fabricated to be instantaneous. Showrooms sold their cars and inventory and the new 3's are on the way.

Clarification due to regional meanings: does "fabricated" in this case mean the same thing as "planned"?
(Fabricated can also mean falsified, just like scheme has a negative connotation in the States)

I thought the first Highland Model 3’s are already en route to Europe. There were reports of the Shanghai docks being full of Highlands and being transfered to roro ships.

Yeah, load/transit/unload time + local shipping is still > 3 weeks.
China sent out two ships on the 24th, one for Europe, one Canada.

Edit: loading another today

https://twitter.com/x/status/1706613281316594036

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1706613600478023742

https://twitter.com/x/status/1706611157509812477

 

[Todd Burch]

How is it a “material miss” when Tesla literally guided to a lower quarter due to Highland and factory upgrades? Lol.

 

[jeewee3000]

Clarification due to regional meanings: does "fabricated" in this case mean the same thing as "planned"?
(Fabricated can also mean falsified, just like scheme has a negative connotation in the States)

I'm not a native speaker, so I did not intend the negative connotation.

I meant Tesla planned the model 3 transition to be instantaneous, as opposed to phasing out the old and phasing in the new model.

Nothing fake or evil about it

 

[hobbes]

Not sure where I'd best share this so I'm posting this here for high visibility.

Last saturday september 23rd I visited my local Tesla showroom (Ghent, Belgium) with my inlaws since they want a Tesla too after seeing me drive one.

They were in doubt between a Y or a 3, so wanted to sit in both to compare interior. (Test drive not necessary, they already drove mine)
The lot was filled with mainly Y's and (old) 3's, but the Tesla representatives explained they had not a single model 3 left for us to sit in.

He explained the highland switchover, and told us:
- all (old) model 3's were sold, even the showroom models. The 3's still in the lot were all sold (or customer cars of course).
- the highland 3's for the showroom would be arrive at the very end of October, together with the first customer Highlands already. (I believe he said the weekend of 28-29 October, but it was at least in the 20's) So if I ordered now I could still get delivery end of October.

So yeah: the transition to highland 3 in Europe is fabricated to be instantaneous. Showrooms sold their cars and inventory and the new 3's are on the way.

Given the timing it seems clear to me that China is not exporting 3's right now at the end of the quarter, but keeping them for domestic sales. Starting October 1st they will IMO prioritize export to provide showroom 3's (and first customer deliveries) across Eurasia.

Germany does have Highland 3s in some showrooms. Don´t know about delivery timing though.

 

[mongo]

I'm not a native speaker, so I did not intend the negative connotation.

I meant Tesla planned the model 3 transition to be instantaneous, as opposed to phasing out the old and phasing in the new model.

Nothing fake or evil about it

Right, I didn't think you intended negativity, nor was it inherently negative. I was trying to reduce confusion.

Language is weird; I get PCBs made all the time and I would hate if a supplier fabricated that they were fabricated them.

 

[Patrick66]

Looks like we will get a good buying opportunity this week as hesitation over production grows. Drawdown of inventory should pull things back up though next week, although that inventory will probably need to be rebuilt over the next few quarters.

The S/X situation will be interesting to watch.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Tesla to face EU anti-subsidy probe over China exports- FT

Tesla and European carmakers that export from China to the EU will be part of the bloc's probe into whether the country's electric vehicles industry is receiving unfair subsidies, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday, citing Brussels' most senior trade official.

ca.finance.yahoo.com

Apparently European's probe into China manufacturers receiving unfair production-side subsidies for exports may extend to Tesla's operations in China. Tesla will surely be exonerated however another FUD hit piece the mass media is piling on.

 

[raffiniert]

I wonder if the next batch of Model S/X to arrive in Europe in 6 weeks or so will be 2024 models.

What is a 2024 model for the Model S/X? Never heard of it and Google returned nothing but speculation.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Tesla to face EU anti-subsidy probe over China exports- FT

Tesla and European carmakers that export from China to the EU will be part of the bloc's probe into whether the country's electric vehicles industry is receiving unfair subsidies, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday, citing Brussels' most senior trade official.

ca.finance.yahoo.com

Apparently European's probe into China manufacturers receiving unfair production-side subsidies for exports may extend to Tesla's operations in China. Tesla will surely be exonerated however another FUD hit piece the mass media is piling on.

Hilarious journalistic logic.

 

[2daMoon]

Hilarious journalistic logic.

That's like Jumbo Shrimp, or, Military Intelligence, isn't it?

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observing

Yesterday, Monday not long ago, my wife allowed me out of the dungeon. During our rainy day drive, she and I spotted two newly released into the wild Model Xs ~ temp plates. Those two count as 3Q23 releases.

I will enjoy my Left Bank (French) pastry for breakfast after our morning stretching. She does legal yoga, I do boga ~ Bruce’s/yoga ~ cross between military exercise at 73 and yoga.

Cheers

 

[Tachyon]

You can’t make this sugar up and horrified to see what extent journalistic malpractice is ingrained in MSM and in its anti Tesla bias

“Tesla shares slipped 1% before the market open on news that the European Union will reportedly probe the electric vehicle maker over its China exports.“

The wording insinuates that it’s only Tesla that’s being probed

 

[elasalle]

Cheer up all ... Once in a while the delivery expectations for the quarter are so low, that they might get beaten

 

[FastCompany]

Photo of the GigaTexas Entrance from the ground:

I'm looking forward to seeing it lit up at night.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

That's like Jumbo Shrimp, or, Military Intelligence, isn't it?

Not really. Journalistic logic can be evil, while jumbo shrimp are tasty. Journalistic logic is taking two true facts A(X) and B(Y), where X is boring and Y is interesting, then create a qualified headline/clickbait story with "Maybe A(Y)".

It's particularly popular in sports journalism where they have to fill a lot of space between the actual sports.
E.g. TeamWantsToTradeForInPositionX(Any Player) IsInPositionX(Star Player) becomes Maybe TeamWantsToTradeForInPositionX(Star Player).

I loathe journalism.

 

[cab]

Below are some excerpts from the Q2 earnings call with regard to the Q3 guidance on the plant shutdowns. As you can see, they are purposely vague (I'm sure they really didn't know exactly). They do tend to lean towards it being a reduction, but phrases like "slight decrease", "not profound reduction", and "Hopefully, it's quite small" probably helped to set an expectation of, let's call it, a 2 or maybe 3% reduction (although again, no number was mentioned). Instead, we are seeing predictions of closer to 5%...that's a material drop. Will it matter in the long run or heck, maybe even for the year if Q4 is decent? Probably not. Will it matter to the stock price for the rest of this year? Um, yeah. Hold on to your butts.

Elon Musk
"We continue to target 1.8 million vehicle deliveries this year, although we expect that Q3 production will be a little bit down because we've got some shutdowns to for -- a lot of factory upgrades. So, just probably a slight decrease in production in Q3 for sort of global factory upgrades."

Mark Delaney -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

"Yep. Yeah. Thank you very much for all the details on that. You know, maybe you could put a finer point on the downtime impact that you both -- you spoke about in your prepared comments in terms of production impact and then also to what extent there's a margin impact from those factory upgrades that you're planning this quarter.

Thank you."

Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer

"Yeah, the downtime -- you know, we don't know exactly the number of cars impacted because, you know, kind of the way that we go into downtime windows for upgrades is, you know, we set aside a period of time, but then the team is challenged to go as quickly as possible so that we can get the factories up and running again and minimize that. So, it's not -- it's not profound reduction, you know. Hopefully, it's quite small."

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

"Yeah, I think we're getting too much into the weeds here. I mean, like we're asking for a level of precision that is not possible to answer. So, let's move on."

 

[AndrewZ]

Tesla, among other long-dated risk stocks within tech, are likely down because of what’s happening in treasuries / with rates and not because of an EU subsidy probe.

Unless I’m mistaken, Tesla’s exports from Shanghai to Europe are not priced very low in those EU markets so it seems unlikely theres much risk.

 

[Knightshade]

What is a 2024 model for the Model S/X? Never heard of it and Google returned nothing but speculation.

Tesla, like most car makers, moves to the next model year in terms of the designation/VIN code in roughly Sept/Oct timeframe of the present year.... they didn't do this for a long time, but began doing so 3 or 4 years ago (I'm sure someone will have a more precise date)


Note unlike most OEMs they don't condition switching to a new set of options/features on model year- they make those changes when they're ready-- so it's entirely possible a 23 and a 24 are physically identical cars for a given model other than the relevant letter in their VIN.