Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NicoV]

What is a 2024 model for the Model S/X? Never heard of it and Google returned nothing but speculation.

Well, the current inventory lists the S and X as ‘2023 Model S/X’. That implies that someday it will switch to ‘2024 Model S/X’. The US already has some minor changes (e.g. darker or lighter glass in the sunroof, I don’t remember exactly), I’m not sure if those changes are already in the S/X currently available in Europe. So those changes might make it a 2024 model.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I don't want to reopen well trod topics, but I found this video useful to send to others (hopefully not posted, I haven't seen it) & the audience (pre and post retirement) is a little different. The youtube channel doesn't do car reviews normally. Includes how to get rebates & money off inventory cars.

Tesla Model Y - Ultimate Retirement Car or Money Pit??
0,153 views 11 Sept 2023
This video discusses if the Tesla Model Y is the ultimate retirement car or just a retirement money pit! The video discusses how to get the best price (including an additional $3000 off in many cases), tax rebates, features that retirees will love, and others that retirees will hate) and why the Tesla Model Y should be a consideration for the next purchase.

His answer: Ultimate car, Model Y Long Range, he bought performance because of the wheels but drives it in Chill Mode

 

[insaneoctane]

Below are some excerpts from the Q2 earnings call with regard to the Q3 guidance on the plant shutdowns. As you can see, they are purposely vague (I'm sure they really didn't know exactly). They do tend to lean towards it being a reduction, but phrases like "slight decrease", "not profound reduction", and "Hopefully, it's quite small" probably helped to set an expectation of, let's call it, a 2 or maybe 3% reduction (although again, no number was mentioned). Instead, we are seeing predictions of closer to 5%...that's a material drop. Will it matter in the long run or heck, maybe even for the year if Q4 is decent? Probably not. Will it matter to the stock price for the rest of this year? Um, yeah. Hold on to your butts.

Elon Musk
"We continue to target 1.8 million vehicle deliveries this year, although we expect that Q3 production will be a little bit down because we've got some shutdowns to for -- a lot of factory upgrades. So, just probably a slight decrease in production in Q3 for sort of global factory upgrades."

Mark Delaney -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

"Yep. Yeah. Thank you very much for all the details on that. You know, maybe you could put a finer point on the downtime impact that you both -- you spoke about in your prepared comments in terms of production impact and then also to what extent there's a margin impact from those factory upgrades that you're planning this quarter.

Thank you."

Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer

"Yeah, the downtime -- you know, we don't know exactly the number of cars impacted because, you know, kind of the way that we go into downtime windows for upgrades is, you know, we set aside a period of time, but then the team is challenged to go as quickly as possible so that we can get the factories up and running again and minimize that. So, it's not -- it's not profound reduction, you know. Hopefully, it's quite small."

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

"Yeah, I think we're getting too much into the weeds here. I mean, like we're asking for a level of precision that is not possible to answer. So, let's move on."

It's obvious to me that Tesla guided to reduced Q3 production due to upgrades. We are now clearly staring at reduced Q3 production due to upgrades. WS will distort this story to their liking. The FUD will, likely, be epic. WS will have their way with this stock because that's what they do. My suggestion is to fasten your seat belt and if you are lucky enough to have some dry powder it seems like you'll probably have a good local opportunity to use it. Don't shoot the messenger.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Photo of the GigaTexas Entrance from the ground:...

Look, if they can't line up the tiles on the floor, how are they going to get the Cybertruck Panels straight?
Don't tell Elon! (I'm on Chapter 26 Biography). This could delay release.

 

[MountainRatMat]

I don't want to reopen well trod topics, but I found this video useful to send to others (hopefully not posted, I haven't seen it) & the audience (pre and post retirement) is a little different. The youtube channel doesn't do car reviews normally. Includes how to get rebates & money off inventory cars.




His answer: Ultimate car, Model Y Long Range, he bought performance because of the wheels but drives it in Chill Mode

I'll admit I didn't waste my time watching this video but this is awful retirement advice.

I'm ok with the Model Y but performance? That's $2k in tires every 20,000 miles and some replaced rims because of pot holes and/or curbs. Get the cheap wheels and sink that savings in to bond funds or index funds.

 

[betstarship]

Not heard here yet as a question, but is TSLA being lifted up by RIVN today?

 

[UkNorthampton]

I'll admit I didn't waste my time watching this video but this is awful retirement advice.

I'm ok with the Model Y but performance? That's $2k in tires every 20,000 miles and some replaced rims because of pot holes and/or curbs. Get the cheap wheels and sink that savings in to bond funds or index funds.

To clarify...He said NOT to buy performance.

If (like him) you want different wheels (not necessarily the same as performance ones), buy separately (his advice). Therefore, he recommends the model y long range as the "ultimate retirement car"

 

[FastCompany]

Look, if they can't line up the tiles on the floor, how are they going to get the Cybertruck Panels straight?
Don't tell Elon! (I'm on Chapter 26 Biography). This could delay release.

View attachment 977327

I also wonder what it will look like from the viewpoint of passing traffic, especially at night.

 

[Patrick66]

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

"Yeah, I think we're getting too much into the weeds here. I mean, like we're asking for a level of precision that is not possible to answer. So, let's move on."

I don't think it is in the weeds at all personally; Fremont was short, China was short, Berlin was short, but Austin was ~30% of production. Fortunately, at the top end that is only about 60k units lost for the quarter, and they likely have the inventory to cover it on the delivery side. I don't think it would have been unreasonable for Tesla to indicate a range of 30-80k cars.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Not heard here yet as a question, but is TSLA being lifted up by RIVN today?

Unknown but RIVN got a boost by an analyst who was bullish on RIVN because it looks like demand on the R1S is strong. Well of course it is. I don't need an analyst to tell me that. It's the only EV SUV in its class being sold. Rivian's problem isn't demand, but

a) production ramp. Can they increase production meaningfully Q over Q? and
b) profitability. Can they produce and sell vehicles at a profit, which they haven't even come close to demonstrating yet.

 

[LodiEVFan]

In my experience it hasnt been a red vs blue thing for the everyday person, but rather a fear of change and new technology. I have plenty of republican friends (including myself), that have been driving EVs for years now. Every time I talk to someone about it the objection isnt a politically biased one, but rather that of the fear of the unknown. My neighbor for example, who is very liberal, is worried what they would do in the event of a power outage, or if they ran out of battery, and they dont like computers so using the car is scary and the most recent objection of not wanting to support a billionaire...It's an issue of education, but unfortunately not every EV is the same, so it makes it quite challenging to sift through the various concerns.

I just returned from a large family gathering for a wedding. During lots interaction I sensed mostly positive to very positive reactions to Teslas and not so much for EVs in general. However, a few in attendance (definitely left leaning people) found every reason they could to be negative - specifically about Tesla and Elon. "Don't like Elon because of his switch in politics", "extraction of lithium is so dirty and damaging", "long distance driving is a pain" (which I hopefully mitigated), "manufacturing batteries is too destructive to the environment" (this from a climate activist who seems to forget about the damage the petroleum and ICE industries do - and who would not listen to my side of the story). This led me to believe for some subset of the population, it is a "red vs blue thing".

 

[Cosmacelf]

FUD comes at you from all angles, not just MSM.

Wife's Long Range Y barely 5 week old died a horrible, infant mortality death of a (probably) power control module affecting the driver side, disabling everything with a power lock. Sigh.

The FUD? Not this post, but the tow truck driver who said, "yeah, these Tesla cars are junk! I tow 6-8 a week. They just die at an intersection!"

Right. No comment when I said my 7 year old S hasn't had a problem. Crickets.

Um, did you question the tow truck driver some more? Like, why are they dying? Infant mortality? Range? That's real data. That's the second infant mortality anecdote I've seen in the past week, and it wasn't a common occurrence before.

 

[GOVA]

FUD comes at you from all angles, not just MSM.

Wife's Long Range Y barely 5 week old died a horrible, infant mortality death of a (probably) power control module affecting the driver side, disabling everything with a power lock. Sigh.

The FUD? Not this post, but the tow truck driver who said, "yeah, these Tesla cars are junk! I tow 6-8 a week. They just die at an intersection!"

Right. No comment when I said my 7 year old S hasn't had a problem. Crickets.

This is rather common fallacy to support their false narrative. You don't need much or even nothing to support bullssugar.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Amazingly the worlds most popular car is being seen more often by a tow truck driver. Wow. Couldn't be that there are just more of them now?

Ironically, that driver should be grateful tesla's "break down" so often weekly because he gets paid per tow.

 

[Vines]

He's lying. There is no way he's towing 6 to 8 per week.

Or his company sees an outsized sample of them because not all companies will tow a tesla. It could be his company sees more of them because other companies say no.

I learned the hard way that a Tesla is not a desirable tow compared to a gas-powered car. If you are trying to schedule your own tow you will get some pushback when they learn its a Tesla and likely pay more than it would have otherwise cost.

 

[Tachyon]

Look, if they can't line up the tiles on the floor, how are they going to get the Cybertruck Panels straight?
Don't tell Elon! (I'm on Chapter 26 Biography). This could delay release.

View attachment 977327

Panel gaps

 

[Max Plaid]

I just returned from a large family gathering for a wedding. During lots interaction I sensed mostly positive to very positive reactions to Teslas and not so much for EVs in general. However, a few in attendance (definitely left leaning people) found every reason they could to be negative - specifically about Tesla and Elon. "Don't like Elon because of his switch in politics", "extraction of lithium is so dirty and damaging", "long distance driving is a pain" (which I hopefully mitigated), "manufacturing batteries is too destructive to the environment" (this from a climate activist who seems to forget about the damage the petroleum and ICE industries do - and who would not listen to my side of the story). This led me to believe for some subset of the population, it is a "red vs blue thing".

I think rather than arguing, when folks drop negative pronouncements about lithium mining or battery manufacture (they can't be recycled you know!! /s), just ask them "What would you propose as an alternative", and they will have no answer...

 

[cliff harris]

TBH if your livelihood depends on cars breaking down all the time, you would also hate the company that has driven the entire EV revolution too . In other news, car mechanics also hate Tesla.

 

[kbM3]

At an ASP of $40k thats HALF A BILLION DOLLARS of revenue difference.

That is a massive swing.

Yes, it does matter!

$0.5B revenue to be generous would provide $150M free cash flow.

Tesla’s value as a company is the discounted sum of all future cash flows. So a one time hit of $150M (no discount because it is the present) should affect Tesla’s value by $150M / 3.5B shares = ~ $0.05 / share hit to the value of the company.

 

[Joe F]

Um, did you question the tow truck driver some more? Like, why are they dying? Infant mortality? Range? That's real data. That's the second infant mortality anecdote I've seen in the past week, and it wasn't a common occurrence before.

No, because I don't waste time with people who spew BS comments like that. Same reason that I have a healthy ignore list on TMC.