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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Quarter push. Yesterday (Friday) in Utrecht, The Netherlands, a truck arriving at the Tesla shop. it had Model 3+ displayed in front of the store. Didn’t check the doors; a couple did and they got in.
 

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One of the easy to see reasons the ‘competition’ is blown away by Tesla’s production of the Model Y:


Tesla: We make ergonomics a priority for our production line workers.

Also Tesla: You will be required to balance upside-down on your head with your legs in a pretzel to change your Model 3 air-filter.
 
MisterGreenEV is following the
UNECE process for the homologation of autonomous vehicles very close. That's their latest guess for Europe after several days of meetings happen this week - unbelievable progress if that is true:
"FSD Beta will be introduced in Europe as of 2024 , probably with a few months delay so we @MisterGreenEV now expect to see the launch in q2 instead of q1 2024"

 
Yes, I think you accurately captured the state of play up until now.

But we need to pay attention to what is starting to happen. Trump has just come out against EVs and now others on the right are starting to parrot his talking points.

Up until now, EVs have not taken center stage in political discourse. But the UAW strike has forced it out into the open and EVs are becoming a political football.

(I get it that the mods might want to stop or limit this discussion, but this is an emerging threat to Tesla's business. It's important.)
 
After the initial hype, the Byd premium sedan the SEAL which matches Teslas spec and pricing, is dying a quick death in China. Tesla is outselling that car 10:1. BYD as expected failed to capture the premium buyers as most of their volume are from cheaper 10-25k cars.

Do you know why?
 
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All of the above is how we got a 15X from the 2019 price - not how we'll get the next 10X. It's not new news for investors. The next 10X will come from doing something the market doesn't really believe or expect: AI and robots.

Elon has warned us all how bad a conflict with China could be. The world is in the process of choosing sides right now for what could be a big blowout. Who thought that we'd be in a proxy war with Russia? I suspect that our supply chains would dry up if China takes Taiwan. Elon seems (to me) to think they will. I think Tesla would survive, but we're not immune to that kind of trouble. In fact, I'd say we're much more vulnerable than the "average" business.
I know that is how ‘we’ reached our views even before the first share split. However, even though ‘we’ know and it’s not news virtually no analysts outside TMC and other TSLA obsessive sources almost never discuss TE, much less value it. Even fewer have any attempt to value subscriptions and/or Supercharger revenue with or without non-Tesla.

These are indeed transparently obvious. In this respect there is a perfect analogy with APPL. Analysts sometimes give lip service to these “non-core“ activities they then immediately return to ‘iPhone sales missed’ or ‘Tesla car sales miss’.

That is the reality. Thus we need to keep attention on the ‘eco-system’, Superchargers and subscriptions. It is indeed hard to do that when the publicity and announcements focus on ‘iPhone and car sales volumes. Monday will reaffirm that limited singular focus with zero mention of TE volumes or services. I hope that last sentence will be wrong. If I’m wrong I’ll be buying more TSLA immediately.
 
Gordon Johonson drops in to a Twitter Space with Tesla CyberBulls. Great entertainment for a Friday!

Worth the time to listen IMO, just made me more bullish. Gordon clearly doesn't understand much and makes some odd leaps of logic - for example he says that "Tesla got lucky during the covid chip shortage because they were able to short-cut conventional testing procedures and swap out chips for others in acouple of weeks, where as legacy auto it takes years" -> that's a) not luck and b) not a weakness, it's agility and strength

He was also harping on about Musk "lying", he had four examples: a solar panel during the SolarCity buyout, the FSD video from 2016, the filing of a 13G instead of a 13F form for Twitter share purchase and one other I don't remember. That was it. He's basing his whole bear thesis on vapor

So yes, I came away feeling good about things. Got to give some respect to Gordon for venturing into the lion's den there though
 
Do you know why?
The Chinese rarely see domestic brands as luxury or premium. This comes from years of poor Chinese business practices in which fake and low quality goods were introduced to the daily lives of the Chinese. People used to spend hours 40 years ago picking out little rock pebbles from their rice bags as it was introduced into the food supply to increase weight. I remember watching a comedy skit from 1989's Chinese New Years festival show about this one person selling rice and the buyer asked if there are rocks in it...the seller said no, grabbed a handful and threw out some rocks and said "you see?" which was the punch line. Some uses artificial processes to change the look of the fruits to make them look fresher. Huge incidents of little infants having abnormal growth of their head due to eating Chinese made formula. The list goes on and on and con artists are just accepted as part of dealing with the Chinese market. If you think we had it bad due to lead paint and Chinese dry wall, it seems that every other day the news uncover some kind of crazy con people have been doing for years causing people throwing away things in their fridge.

People usually seeks premium imports from Europe or the US because they know there were no secret corners cut to make a buck. Also they are just way more expensive, which naturally comes with the prestige of buying such items as the culture is very money/class oriented.