Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

The whole point of the cybertruck design was better manufacturability. Bending vs stamping. No paint. What changed ?

All the complaints about "It won't fit in a garage", too big, etc. So they reworked the entire CT.

 

[bkp_duke]

The whole point of the cybertruck design was better manufacturability. Bending vs stamping. No paint. What changed ?

The issue is no one has ever mass-produced anything like that. There is no one that can build that assembly line with experience. It has to be "felt" out through a large degree of trial and error.

At the ultimate end-point of mass production, yes it will be cheaper per unit to produce. But the know-how to get there doesn't exist.

 

[jerry33]

Unless you are doing AI work, very VERY few workloads today cannot be done on something with the CPU equivalent of a chromebook. It doesn't take much to run a spreadsheet, word processor, quickbooks, etc.

The only exception, which "smart" companies have discovered - BIG computer screens. Give someone a 32 inch monitor vs. a 27 inch and their productivity goes up markedly with that extra real estate.

You got that right. Big screens are key. (Heck, I use two 30" screens at home)

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Rivian is selling as many R1S SUVs as they can make, even with their inflated prices (imagine how much cheaper Tesla could make the R1S),

I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla buys Rivian

 

[Tony73]

If Gordon Johnson had said Tesla dug it’s grave with cybertruck, everyone here would ridicule him but it’s somehow ok for Musk to use those words

 

[thenewguy1979]

You got to give it to Elon for being a brutally honest CEO. Haven't seen anyone like him for quite some times. Yep, it was not a great call and we can all interpret it as how we see it but got to give it to the guy.

 

[juanmedina]

The issue is no one has ever mass-produced anything like that. There is no one that can build that assembly line with experience. It has to be "felt" out through a large degree of trial and error.

At the ultimate end-point of mass production, yes it will be cheaper per unit to produce. But the know-how to get there doesn't exist.

Model X 2.0

 

[skybluecgreen]

Overall, I fully agree with Tesla's plans to slow down GigaMexico, while moving the next-gen platform's initial production to GigaTexas. It makes sense in multiple ways, like the building already exists and has space available as well as that is where the engineers are. Plans change, and long-term this change is one that I think is for the best.

I think starting initial production of the next gen vehicle at Austin is the way to go also but did they confirm this would be the case? I wasn't clear on that.

 

[tslagreen]

Look, the same info (more or less) could have been imparted without actual sound bites like "We dug our own grave with Cybertruck". Is he that dumb (I know he isn't, but stay with me here), to not realize that the OBVIOUS retort/question is "Why the hell didn't you create a normal pickup truck then?". Does he think Tesla's brand is that weak that only something that looks different than a Chevy could sell? Doesn't he realize that NO ONE ELSE is selling EV trucks at any volume because they all suck in some way? Ford Lighting isn't even a bad truck, well except for the range, but they can't make it in volume since they don't have the battery supply.

I am really starting to think Elon's strategic thinking is messed up here. He was anti-selling the $25K car because it was a "boring ordinary car". Who the **** cares Elon? Give me a $25K Tesla and I'll sell a million of them, boring styling and cheap interior or not.

I'm realizing that the Model X wasn't a one of mistake. That vehicle, which could have been THE soccer mom car, was cost crippled because of those flashy but ultimately pointless falcon wing doors. Rivian is selling as many R1S SUVs as they can make, even with their inflated prices (imagine how much cheaper Tesla could make the R1S), because it is JUST A CAR, with a form factor that people like. Does it have cold gas thrusters? Does it have flappy wing doors? Does it have sub 2 second acceleration? No, and it doesn't have to to sell tons.

Elon was dragged kicking and screaming to make a $25K car with a steering wheel. Speaking of wheels, how was his intuition on wheel vs yoke? I even like my yoke, but it turns out it was a market dud. Thanks Elon for crippling Model S/X sales for a while until you figured that one out.

Yeah the Cybertruck might turn out to be great. But it has cost Tesla at least a year delay in getting a truck to market. And apparently margins on it are going to suck if you believe (checks notes), some guy named Elon.

Most of the rest of the call was taken up with Elon giving reasons why no one can afford his cars. Yes, it was more nuanced than that. Think the press will explain the nuance?

Look, I continue to think Tesla has a bright future, but gawd that call didn't paint that picture.

Problem is, this is nothing new with Elon's behavior as a CEO and in particular on conference calls. I get it, the stock has been flat for the past year, yet cash keeps piling up in the Billions - with B. Can he be overly ambitious with flying wings (perhaps unnecessary) and Mad Max trucks - yes - but that is what we, or at least I - signed up for.
Tim Cook is good about crunching numbers and putting out IPhone model 15.0 and beyond, but has no vision while Elon, in his too honest, manic-depressive mode continues to defy monumental odds.

 

[Buckminster]

Good news; it will be difficult to be so negative on the call in Jan when the $7500 is coming off the sale price.

 

[traxila]

Because then everybody would be delusional about what’s really happening and we’d have ridiculous, detached predictions for next quarter.

Read the report, listen to what’s being said, and stop being emotional because he’s not saying what you wanted to hear in a manner you wanted to hear it. And that is for everyone, not just you.

You’d think this was the first ER everyone had heard, and the first time the company was navigating difficult times.

The company is in a GREAT financial position. Never before has a company so expertly expanded, reduced costs, increased efficiencies, gotten rid of debt, invested in the future, built their bank account, and rode a tumultuous macro environment to come out the other end healthier and stronger. But yeah, let’s rag on Elon because he hasn’t decided to be a puppet for the financial market crooks running the company’s SP. Shame on every one of you. You don’t deserve the potential future Elon is killing himself for.

Have the utmost respect for the cat.

EM is a great person. Sometimes he needs to chillax as well, and not sing dirges on the quarterlies.

He should have said what you wrote above.

 

[cab]

The issue is no one has ever mass-produced anything like that. There is no one that can build that assembly line with experience. It has to be "felt" out through a large degree of trial and error.

At the ultimate end-point of mass production, yes it will be cheaper per unit to produce. But the know-how to get there doesn't exist.

A random poster on Reddit (yeah, yeah, I know) indicated he worked for an automation supplier to Tesla and they weren't going to be installing their specific Cybertruck automation pieces until Q3...of 2024!!! No idea if thst is true or how critical those pieces are, but well...take it for what it's worth (maybe not much).

 

[uscbucsfan]

Good news; it will be difficult to be so negative on the call in Jan when the $7500 is coming off the sale price.

It's funny, Tesla sales are saying that most Teslas won't qualify for that.

I think it's to sell more cars, but I do believe there are some that won't qualify based on the components of the battery.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Overall, I fully agree with Tesla's plans to slow down GigaMexico, while moving the next-gen platform's initial production to GigaTexas. It makes sense in multiple ways, like the building already exists and has space available as well as that is where the engineers are. Plans change, and long-term this change is one that I think is for the best.

Mmm, but I’d like to see them build the structures, get services connected, and only if necessary pause then. Worst case it’s an expensive solar farm for a year. It’s not like they don’t have the cash.

 

[bkp_duke]

With the audio drop outs I might have missed this. Did he give a start of production date?

Tesla's X/twitter account said delivery event Nov 30 at Giga Austin. So, that would mean "already started" or "soon".

 

[EXOTIC1]

Elon warned this was happening in 2qtr earnings call. Quarter 4 will be a definite winner in my opinion.

Also for the people who are just flippers of the stock whenever Cathie Wood is selling large qty days before earnings……. it’s a good idea to sell as well, if in for the short time.

 

[GhostSkater]

The whole point of the cybertruck design was better manufacturability. Bending vs stamping. No paint. What changed ?

It's designed for that, but at the same time it's a whole new way of building cars that will be ramped for the first time, so it will be hard

Something can be cheap and quickly to manufacture and still be hard to get there

 

[Tachyon]

I have never felt so desperate for Optimus with generative AI.The first job I have for it is to replace Elon in earnings call so he can get a much deserved break and hope we can get one too.

 

[Skryll]

(1) Drugs and Elon happens. (2) The sooner that expectations can be "managed" about 50% CACR the better. Why not have a Tesla official say the actual truth that it's rare that making physical goods over more than several years can occur at that rate? For software yes, but not for metal-bending. So "guide" to 30%, not 50%. (3) If CTs are hard and expensive to make, why not charge early adopters accordingly? Out of more than a couple million pre-orders, won't 1 out of 10 pay a boosted initial price? Tesla did it this way for Roadsters and Model S/X; they only came down the cost J-curve with Model 3/Y. (4) As for ordinary trucks, someone at Tesla is on record somewhere that they'd make a more ordinary truck if the CT (at least the exterior styling) fails.

They should auction off the first 1000 vins

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Bought some at $231, I am a sucker for $TSLA, plus who cares about the guaranteed 5% return on HYSA or treasuries these days!!