Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Today's TSLA low of $210.42 briefly pushed the price under the August low of $212.36 and the current 200-day simple moving average of $214.69. But TSLA has since snapped a bit above these prices and may be hinting at a successful test of support levels.

Meanwhile, this is a monthly options expiration day. That implies more interest than a weekly but less than a quarterly. Based on my survey of the current TSLA options trading volume and the earlier open interest, large option writers with the ability to temporarily manipulate the share price may target $215 as their most profitable closing share price. The share price is near there right now, so it may be relatively easy for manipulators to keep it there. Of course, news or traders' insistence could confound them.

 

[insaneoctane]

Elon is feeling significant pressure coming from multiple directions, IMO

• Interest rates are relatively high, and more importantly, are driving buyers payments higher faster than Tesla can cut prices, slowing demand at a time when his factories are increasing supply.
• Tesla seems to be lowering prices in a vacuum...Who else is cutting prices anywhere? How ridiculous is a $5 tea/soda at lunch? All my utilities / bills UP. Insurance UP. Every time I look, some new expense in my household goes up. And a lot (%). I don't know what numbers they're using, but inflation seems to still be relentless to me.
• UAW strike must be putting new labor pressures on Tesla at the same time Tesla is having to reduce prices to balance supply.
• He's been critical of the US government frivolous spending and yet it is ignored, continues at record pace, and isn't helping inflation either.
• 2 wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East
• Mexico seemingly was pushing back on all the needed infrastructure to support the Monterey factory. Admittedly, not sure this is true or FUD.
• Twitter / X is constant weight over our CEO

I'm sure there's more, but I've made my point(s). The economy seems teetering and it could get worse from here. Let's hope something changes for the better.

 

[CitizenKane]

For those that didn't buy a new Tesla in Q3 for the FSD transfer, you can now buy a new Tesla [S/X/Y, not 3] and get your unlimited lifetime superchargering transfered.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1715288371528966541

Or wait a bit longer, since Tesla's new strategy seems to be to constantly lower prices.

 

[InTheMiddle]

That's a bit ambiguous, did you spend $20k or $4m?

Each block was 10k shares (hence “10k” not “$10k” in my post), so ~$4.25m for clarity. As I’d posted in a prior exchange with another member here, 10k blocks seems to be a reasonable balance between many small orders vs larger fewer orders.

 

[madodel]

Got this email from Tesla today that I can transfer my lifetime free supercharging to a new S, X or Y without having to trade in my Sig X. Fantasy I know, but wish they'd do this for the CT.

 

[Tachyon]

 

[thx1139]

Elon is feeling significant pressure coming from multiple directions, IMO

• Interest rates are relatively high, and more importantly, are driving buyers payments higher faster than Tesla can cut prices, slowing demand at a time when his factories are increasing supply.
• Tesla seems to be lowering prices in a vacuum...Who else is cutting prices anywhere? How ridiculous is a $5 tea/soda at lunch? All my utilities / bills UP. Insurance UP. Every time I look, some new expense in my household goes up. And a lot (%). I don't know what numbers they're using, but inflation seems to still be relentless to me.
• UAW strike must be putting new labor pressures on Tesla at the same time Tesla is having to reduce prices to balance supply.
• He's been critical of the US government frivolous spending and yet it is ignored, continues at record pace, and isn't helping inflation either.
• 2 wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East
• Mexico seemingly was pushing back on all the needed infrastructure to support the Monterey factory. Admittedly, not sure this is true or FUD.
• Twitter / X is constant weight over our CEO

I'm sure there's more, but I've made my point(s). The economy seems teetering and it could get worse from here. Let's hope something changes for the better.

So by my calculations a Model Y LR bought last year at the price then and at average interest rate has a monthly payment about $100 more than buying a Model Y LR now at the current price with current average interest rates. That doesnt even take into account the $7500 tax credit.

 

[thx1139]

Yes. Exactly my point. Lots of folks are blaming the Cybertruck design (and therefore Elon) for it being "late." But any earlier would have required huge trade-offs with decreases in production of other Teslas, loss of manufacturing efficiency, huge costs, and diversion away from Tesla's apparent production strategy.

Tesla never planned on building the CT much earlier. They had no place to build it, let alone the factory equipment to do it.

 

[AudubonB]

I call First Dibs on that TommyGunned CTrk.

 

[cliff harris]

I do think that opinions on the stock will change once we have more updates from the big ICE 'competitors'. Right now the focus is on Tesla, and previously there was discussion about the UAW strike, but even if the strikes are settled, its just a major cost increase to make ICE cars, whereas Teslas EVs are using fewer workers (AFAIK) per car, so even if they matched the UAW pay, its still going to hurt ICE makers more right?

I don't think many people on wall st know that Tesla is still pretty profitable, and has zero debt (and a huge defensive cash mountain), whereas the other car companies are... not in the same position.

• GM quarterly results are 24th October.
• Ford are 26th October
• VW are 26th October
• Stellantis are 31st October.

Combine that with the cybertruck delivery date and I think things may look very different? And thats even before the impact one way or another, of the strikes takes effect. Q4 will be fun .

 

[DTG_]

Elon is feeling significant pressure coming from multiple directions, IMO

• Interest rates are relatively high, and more importantly, are driving buyers payments higher faster than Tesla can cut prices, slowing demand at a time when his factories are increasing supply.
• Tesla seems to be lowering prices in a vacuum...Who else is cutting prices anywhere? How ridiculous is a $5 tea/soda at lunch? All my utilities / bills UP. Insurance UP. Every time I look, some new expense in my household goes up. And a lot (%). I don't know what numbers they're using, but inflation seems to still be relentless to me.
• UAW strike must be putting new labor pressures on Tesla at the same time Tesla is having to reduce prices to balance supply.
• He's been critical of the US government frivolous spending and yet it is ignored, continues at record pace, and isn't helping inflation either.
• 2 wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East
• Mexico seemingly was pushing back on all the needed infrastructure to support the Monterey factory. Admittedly, not sure this is true or FUD.
• Twitter / X is constant weight over our CEO

I'm sure there's more, but I've made my point(s). The economy seems teetering and it could get worse from here. Let's hope something changes for the better.

At least one of these points is totally, completely, self inflicted.

 

[elasalle]

Or wait a bit longer, since Tesla's new strategy seems to be to constantly lower prices.

Nov 1st is the next FOMC .... 10 days
Nov 30 is CT ... 40 days

 

[Usain]

.45 ACP (Tommy gun) isn't exactly known for it's penetration power, but I'd still absolutely love to see a video of that.

I think you will. They gotta do something like that at the delivery event.

 

[loquitur]

I don't think there has been confirmation, but it appears that Issacson personally witnessed the decision.

It would be nice to get confirmation though.

From the Isaacson book, p. 505: "So in May 2023, he decided to change the initial build location
for the next-generation cars and Robotaxis to Austin, where his own workspace and that of his
top engineers would be right next to the new high-speed ultra-automated assembly line."

This followed earlier discussion about how von Holzhausen and Lars Moravy really had to twist
Musk's arm to design Gen 3 cars with steering wheels for humans. The decision was fed
by a secretive meeting held in September 2022 with them presenting data that Tesla
couldn't support a 50% growth rate without an inexpensive small car for global markets.

I still think that public statements to TSLA investors shouldn't mention that 50% CAGR reflecting
Tesla's (aspirational) internal plans, in the interest of underpromising and overdelivering.
For comparison, there was "Gordon Moore's rule of four" which Moore modified to a doubling
every two years, still a CAGR of 41%.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

I do think that opinions on the stock will change once we have more updates from the big ICE 'competitors'. Right now the focus is on Tesla, and previously there was discussion about the UAW strike, but even if the strikes are settled, its just a major cost increase to make ICE cars, whereas Teslas EVs are using fewer workers (AFAIK) per car, so even if they matched the UAW pay, its still going to hurt ICE makers more right?

I don't think many people on wall st know that Tesla is still pretty profitable, and has zero debt (and a huge defensive cash mountain), whereas the other car companies are... not in the same position.

• GM quarterly results are 24th October.
• Ford are 26th October
• VW are 26th October
• Stellantis are 31st October.

Combine that with the cybertruck delivery date and I think things may look very different? And thats even before the impact one way or another, of the strikes takes effect. Q4 will be fun .

I think "finally" delivering cybertrucks will provide a nice sugar high short term bump for the stock but after that passes it's hard for me to see it having a durable effect on the stock price until true volumes come, hopefully in 2025. With a painstaking ramp, I'm assuming they produce ~50,000 next year at an ASP of ~$80,000, which only translates to a ~4% bump in annual top line revenue.
The thing I'm guessing creates a durable price improvement is when we see TE really ramping & analysts are forced to account for its potential & an observed & significant rate of growth in their earnings models. The margins are now there, and we're seeing increased production from Lathrop. Given the lag time between production and installation, I'm hoping to see a meaningful bump in Q4 with continued improvement in margins. Hoping to see the China TE megapacktory construction proceed as fast as the car factory did, and that it starts meaningful production a year from now, while we also get 1 - 2 more TE factory announcements over that time.
My simplistic take on tesla since first heavily investing in 2018 was that it could someday have a market cap of $2+(?) trillion (1 trillion for cars/trucks; 1 trillion for TE; and maybe another trillion or two if one or more of the flyer options hits (e.g., FSD, optimus, dojo, etc.)

 

[Atomsla]

I'm assuming they produce ~50,000 next year at an ASP of ~$80,000

whaa... no.

 

[dhanson865]

I didn't want to miss out if today turns out to be the low and it just goes up from here but I missed my 210 triggering.

It won't hurt my feelings if we don't go below 210 ever again.

 

[Artful Dodger]

(Assuming the cell capacity existed somewhere).

Hence Elon's comment years ago that 'adding complexity without increasing deliveries is a waste of effort'.

Finally, Tesla will ramp a more complex product: (over 12-18 mths)

• 4680 cells in a 800v hi-voltage pack
• Megacharger/Supercharger V4 support
• 48v low-voltage electricals
• Paintless, rustproof bodywork
• Onboard AC + Air supply
• Tesla Glass

Who knows what other innovations are coming? We only know that this is just the beginning, and at least a few of these new techniques will filter down into Gen3.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Drumheller]

An informative thread regarding the car dealer business and how it is going recently. There were posts here yesterday claiming car sales are fine and companies besides Tesla are still selling typical levels. Doesn't sound like that from dealers replying to this thread.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1715438650689773877

 

[Artful Dodger]

People are thinking the split in GVWR is due to the extra motor.... based on the initial info, it's pretty likely that the difference in GVWR between the dual and tri is actually because of the bigger pack(many pounds) not the 3rd motor(150lbs?).

The GVWR difference is prolly due to both 2 vs 3 motors AND medium pack vs large pack. The diff. is 1,000 lbs. I leave it as an excercise for the reader to estimate the BATTERY CAPACITY diff due to the change in weight rating. @mongo not singled out!