Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[unk45]

Right? I actually looked at the iPhone earlier today. As I recall, $1.6M in sales were imported to the US. And that's how we make a trade deficit - on our own product mind you.

Just remember that the FX cost is only the marginal cost of construction and the marginal cost of purchased ingredients. Depending on precise details of arrangements, shipping might even be partly US source. Cost accounting and tax accounting are the clues.

That may well be quite different on other major importers such as Amazon, but much of theirs may not be quite so detrimental as it seems to be.

 

[MP3Mike]

Is this like a shop that was formerly doing collision repair on ICE, then certified to also do Tesla? That's like our shop in Tempe. It's not a Tesla shop and been there before Tesla.

Assuming that's the same scenario in Sweden, it would be the owner and employees of the shop who suffer due to a lack of work (on ICE, due to any spares blockade). Like @heltok mentioned, this would not hurt Tesla directly. I might even add, except as a scapegoat for someone to blame?

However, if they were all to strike, then Tesla repairs could halt as well, correct? That's where the replacements workers come in which is taboo in Sweden culture. And there's the rub it seems. Do I have this right? Thanks for your view.

I think this article might clear up some of the details:

Tesla workers strike in Sweden over union demands

About 130 mechanics walk out after company refuses to sign collective wage agreement

www.thenationalnews.com

He said that unless Tesla changed its position, IF Metall would widen its strike on November 3 to cover all workshop repairs on Tesla cars across Sweden, not just those done by Tesla employees.

So, their plan is to punish all Tesla vehicle owners so that they force Tesla to sign a Collective agreement.

The labour sector/market in Sweden is 'quite different' compared to what it is in the US. In Sweden 72% of women and 65% of men are members of a union.

I get that it is different, but let the market work itself out, don't go to drastic measures to try to force something. i.e. if that is how everyone really feels in Sweden then Tesla just wouldn't have any willing employees to hire. (Which obviously isn't the case, as people went to work for Tesla knowning that there was no Collective agreement in place, or planned.) Without some evidence I won't believe that the working conditions are unsafe and that a Collective agreement is the only way to force Tesla to improve things.

Yeah, with that kind of mentality, I would hope Tesla just closes up shop in Sweden, and opens service centers just outside Sweden in bordering countries to serve the existing Tesla customers. (Yeah, I take a very dim view of what I consider bullying tactics.)

 

[SOULPEDL]

The summary from summarize.tech had a few errors. Anyway the strike has now expanded to included Transport(transport union) and they will not release Tesla cars from the boats:

sympati för IF Metall

Svenska Transportarbetareförbundet är facket för dig som är chaufför, väktare, renhållningsarbetare med flera yrken.

www-transport-se.translate.goog

When does the sympathy measure start and which workplaces are affected?​

The sympathy measure comes into force on 7 November 2023 at 12.00 noon .

The sympathy measure involves a blockade against all loading and unloading of Tesla cars in the following four Swedish ports:

Malmö – (Copenhagen Malmö Port AB)
Södertälje – (Södertälje Hamn AB)
Gothenburg – (Logent Ports & Terminal AB Gothenburg)
Trelleborg – (Trelleborg Hamn AB)

The sympathy measure applies until further notice or until a collective agreement is signed between IF Metall and TM Sweden AB, Tesla.

Bold move, this escalated for sure. And right during UAW strike, maybe strategically. What do they want? Do we know if they are Tesla Service Centers or 3rd party shops?

I wonder if Tesla would consider pulling out of Sweden? The people might also have a say, Christmas is coming.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Bold move, this escalated for sure. And right during UAW strike, maybe strategically. What do they want? Do we know if they are Tesla Service Centers or 3rd party shops?

I wonder if Tesla would consider pulling out of Sweden? The people might also have a say, Christmas is coming.

I don't think this will just be about Sweden. My guess is that this could also come to involve Germany. And I'm also guessing the French won't back down. So... Would Tesla consider pulling out of Europe?...

 

[Gigapress]

Have you looked at Stellantis outside North America?
NA has been their recidivist element since acquisition. OTOH the Jeep BEV is promising where it's being produced and sold, as are their BEV light trucks and other lines.
For sure they'll not alienate their NA Luddites, especially when RAM minted money prior to what it will be post-UAW settlement.

What is the point of looking at Stellantis outside North America?

Stellantis makes more profit in North America than in the rest of the world combined. In 1H23, the NA market contributed €8B out of their €14B total "adjusted operating income". That's almost as much as their total profit €11B.

Ram and Jeep ICE sales are carrying this company. Without their continued success, Stellantis likely can't survive a major recession, and that's before accounting for the costs of actually transitioning to EVs. They are doomed.

 

[Fred42]

I don't know why there are so many posts about Sweden. Tesla will do what other employers here and there do: settle with the union and raise prices in Sweden. The significance to the big picture is nil.

 

[2daMoon]

The sympathy measure involves a blockade against all loading and unloading of Tesla cars in the following four Swedish ports:

Malmö – (Copenhagen Malmö Port AB)
Södertälje – (Södertälje Hamn AB)
Gothenburg – (Logent Ports & Terminal AB Gothenburg)
Trelleborg – (Trelleborg Hamn AB)

The sympathy measure applies until further notice or until a collective agreement is signed between IF Metall and TM Sweden AB, Tesla.

Granted, I know nothing of the work environment in Sweden, nor the history of their way of doing things.

With that said, I am opposed to use of strong-arm tactics if there is no actual problem to address. Without further info it just seems to me a forced "negotiation" for a collective agreement in the workplace might result in rewarding below average workers on par with excellent workers. This is generally not considered conducive to improving quality and performance in a workplace environment. "Everyone gets a trophy" is unlikely to improve the employee gene pool.

If this isn't the case for Sweden what I wrote above would not apply, but to me the threats look like a duck, and walk like a duck, so, I'm gonna consider it a duck.

On another note, the union-organized-blockade wouldn't prevent Tesla from directing the ships to alternate ports in a country that would receive and deliver cars to customers there, would it?

 

[Stretch2727]

So with the stock price at recent lows I just did another Roth IRA conversion on some shares.

So lots of taxes to pay separately but any gains and the shares in the Roth are now tax free. I plan to do these conversions until all the Tesla shares are in the Roth IRA.

One way to make a good thing out of the lower stock price as you pay taxes on the price at closing on the day of conversion.

 

[Words of HABIT]

CTV News: General Motors and Stellantis in talks with United Auto Workers to reach deals that mirror Ford's​

General Motors and Stellantis in talks with United Auto Workers to reach deals that mirror Ford's

"GM is likely to be the next company to settle because it has agreed to pull new electric vehicle battery factories into the UAW's national contract, which essentially unionizes them. The UAW sees the plants as the jobs of the future in the auto industry as the nation and world transition from internal combustion engines to battery power. Workers making gasoline engines and transmissions will need a place to work when their plants are phased out.

It wasn't clear what Ford agreed to in terms of battery factories. The company has said it would be hard to unionize employees who haven't been hired yet at plants that haven't been built. Ford had announced plans to build two battery factories in Kentucky, one in Tennessee and another in Michigan, but the Michigan plant is now on hold."

Wow. Today Union Auto Workers are making gasoline engines and transmissions. Tomorrow the same Union Auto Workers will be making new electric vehicle battery factories. Does GM and UAW really believe it is that simple to switch disciplines? Would you hire a plumber to complete the electrical wiring in your house? Would you allow an obstetrician to perform your brain surgery? Just wow.

 

[samppa]

Finn here.
We have I believe even stronger unions and collective agreements than in sweden.
Employees union and employers union negotiate the agreements. But thats not all. In most major business sectors, these collective agreements apply to businesses regardless if they belong to the union or not.

So in essence Tesla has agreed into a collective agreement here when they set up shop here. Whether they like it or not.

 

[MP3Mike]

I don't know why there are so many posts about Sweden. Tesla will do what other employers here and there do: settle with the union and raise prices in Sweden. The significance to the big picture is nil.

Not every company caves. I know of one company where the employees were about to vote to unionize, and the owner just fired everyone and shut the business down. He said he absolutely was not going to deal with a union. (Of course, the now ex-employees were all up in arms and said "you can't do that", but of course he could.)

But really it all depends on what they are actually asking for, and what needs to be fixed. It sounds like they want it just because that is what they are used to, and I don't think that is a good reason. And not knowing all of the details, it sounds like there has essentially been no negotiation time, just a demand to sign this now or we walk and shut down your repair shops and the ports for your vehicles. And that seems like bad faith actions that should not be tolerated.

 

[2daMoon]

So with the stock price at recent lows I just did another Roth IRA conversion on some shares.

So lots of taxes to pay separately but any gains and the shares in the Roth are now tax free. I plan to do these conversions until all the Tesla shares are in the Roth IRA.

One way to make a good thing out of the lower stock price as you pay taxes on the price at closing on the day of conversion.

Speaking of Roth Conversions, any investors in the US who are receiving Social Security benefits will have opportunity to use the untaxed difference between SS income and the amount of income where taxes would apply to transfer shares into a ROTH.

As I understand it, an investor can move shares from a taxed account into a ROTH without a tax penalty when they figure up how many shares can be moved before the taxable amount exceeds the difference in this window between SS income and where taxation begins.

Doing this late in the year when the SP is on a down-swing might be perfect timing for those who can employ this tactic.

Now, where did I put that calculator...

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Not every company caves. I know of one company where the employees were about to vote to unionize, and the owner just fired everyone and shut the business down. He said he absolutely was not going to deal with a union. (Of course, the now ex-employees were all up in arms and said "you can't do that", but of course he could.)

But really it all depends on what they are actually asking for, and what needs to be fixed. It sounds like they want it just because that is what they are used to, and I don't think that is a good reason. And not knowing all of the details, it sounds like there has essentially been no negotiation time, just a demand to sign this now or we walk and shut down your repair shops and the ports for your vehicles. And that seems like bad faith actions that should not be tolerated. [My edit.]

The union has been talking to Tesla since they set up shop in Sweden. So at least 10 years, if not 15... But Tesla hasn't even come to the table(!)... So what would have been a reasonable amount of time here? 20 years? 25? 30?

 

[hobbes]

Doesn´t seem they know exactly what they mean with AP HW4 being in Highland 3s (see thread following the post), but would be interesting..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1717896112215138671

 

[AudubonB]

As a matter of fact we can know that with pretty high confidence, because the peak of actual ASPs never got close to the peak list prices.

Uh oh. Mathematics demands that be the case, at least for a given definition of “close”.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

The union has been talking to Tesla since they set up shop in Sweden. So at least 10 years, if not 15... But Tesla hasn't even come to the table(!)... So what would have been a reasonable amount of time here? 20 years? 25? 30?

I vote for 69 years.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Tesla should stand firm because unions most everywhere, especially those with a relation to ICE car manufacturing, have a variety of motives to try to slow Tesla down.

I do think Tesla should be a little bit sensitive to the optics. Though they needn’t be overly concerned because the FUD will continue at full volume regardless and "union bashing" will likely sell Tesla products in some circles.

Also, walking away from Sweden entirely should be an option. Doing so would send a salutary message to governments with any awareness of the energy transformation and the likely impact of lack of participation in it on their country’s economy.

Unions at Ford is asking to slow the transition is one thing, Tesla workers asking better pay it's another. Tesla does not make ICEs so unions don't play that card. If anything, they raise the bar for every one, so traditional OEMs are even more screwed.

 

[heltok]

Seems like lots of the workers went to work in Sweden despite the strike:

Strejk på Teslas verkstäder

IF Metalls strejk Teslas bilverkstäder inleddes på fredagsmorgonen – men många servicetekniker kom till jobbet ändå. Den svenska modellen står på spel, säger strejkvakten Stefan Leiding.

arbetet-se.translate.goog

Several still work​

During Friday morning, several car mechanics - or service technicians as they are also called - slip into the workplace in Upplands Väsby. Most do not want to talk to Arbetet, but one of them, Patrik Broman, is happy to give his view on the strike:

- It is unnecessary. I don't think we get better wages with a collective agreement. We are above the minimum wages in the agreement, but if Tesla were to sign an agreement, I think we will receive the minimum wage.

According to Stefan Leiding, the average salaries at Tesla are below the average at other car service companies. Patrik Broman is skeptical of that task.

- We have received testimony that Tesla hires its employees so that they will work as usual, says Stefan Leiding.

"Carry on as usual"​

According to Patrik Broman, Tesla has told its employees that "we are running as usual". But also that those who are members of the union have the right to strike.

Patrik Broman thinks the strike is "unnecessary" and came to work as usual on Friday morning. "Tesla has said that we are running as usual, and that they will move staff here from another workshop if necessary," says Patrik Broman. Photo: Moa Källström
To customers, Tesla has sent out the message that the workshops "continue to be available".

Tesla plans to replace the service technicians who are on strike with others, something Dagens Arbete was the first to report on.

Some of the service technicians move between the workshops even in normal cases. But if Tesla organizes a strike, IF Metall is ready to escalate the conflict.

 

[joh01652]

Yeah, it’s a big deal that the fact it’s coming from Tesla and will be known by nobody outside this tiny TMC thread world.

Just you watch what happens. Praise for other charging networks while either ignoring Tesla’s, Tesla, and the fact it’s Tesla’s invention, hardware, software and standard etc.

And no, I don’t think ‘monopoly’ was or should be a ‘worry’. I’m really, really, really annoyed that the people and company that worked their butts off, that had to take all the ridicule and doubt, are now being effectively ignored and vanished. This is exactly how history gets lost and rewritten.

Absolutely hate (and I rarely use that strong, dirty word) what’s happening.

ADDING!!! For all those people so pro-advertising you should be incensed. By rebranding the standard AND then rebranding the units, an incalculable amount of free advertising has been given away. Like billions of dollars worth.

The first person who comes onto TMC and posts BP (or whomever) has a charging network as good as Tesla’s; I’m going to invite them to The Mountain and then push them off the side.

Think of history as myth, and myth as history. Focus on winning, whatever that means to you. Life is easier that way.

 

[betstarship]

Yeah, it’s a big deal that the fact it’s coming from Tesla and will be known by nobody outside this tiny TMC thread world.

Just you watch what happens. Praise for other charging networks while either ignoring Tesla’s, Tesla, and the fact it’s Tesla’s invention, hardware, software and standard etc.

And no, I don’t think ‘monopoly’ was or should be a ‘worry’. I’m really, really, really annoyed that the people and company that worked their butts off, that had to take all the ridicule and doubt, are now being effectively ignored and vanished. This is exactly how history gets lost and rewritten.

Absolutely hate (and I rarely use that strong, dirty word) what’s happening.

ADDING!!! For all those people so pro-advertising you should be incensed. By rebranding the standard AND then rebranding the units, an incalculable amount of free advertising has been given away. Like billions of dollars worth.

The first person who comes onto TMC and posts BP (or whomever) has a charging network as good as Tesla’s; I’m going to invite them to The Mountain and then push them off the side.

BP has a ton of money, just putting on my thinking hat on - this seems like an interesting recruiting efforts for those who don't want to work at Tesla anymore.