Tesla/Elon is very vocally proud to be an American company, first, so the CT is on brand.
I get looking at the Global picture as an investor. I did have an F150 for some of my time in Europe...the parking spaces are way too small.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I get looking at the Global picture as an investor. I did have an F150 for some of my time in Europe...the parking spaces are way too small.
I will prepare s more complete discussion, and put it in another thread. There is decent detail available but some sources are from outside the company. Although I am bullish on their prospects I am not an investor nor have I intentions to become so.
He stressed that the 200k per year is a long ways off, like 3 times, even calling himself a broken record saying that making the CT and manufacturing in general is so difficult.
Drumheller
Active Member
I don't recall Elon saying that. Please share a recording or a source. Thank you.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
At least not until one considers the full advertising value of the CT for Tesla and the EV movement by going head to head with the highest volume vehicle being sold in the US, the pickup.
Perhaps a masterstroke it is after all.
Soon enough, those on Roman roads will get their turn. That too will be fabulous.
I will tomorrow. About to take my kids trick or treating. It was on a podcast and he said the problem with a 25k car is that there are still cost and it's difficult to make good margins. There was also the part in the Biigraphy where he was against it and just wanted a Robotaxi.
GhostSkater
Member
This is why I put emphasis that the TTM charts paints a clearer picture, we know Tesla have had a lot of downtime on the lines this past quarter, which we will likely see the effect on the next with even higher production numbers
Lora Fraudaliny.
When someone here earlier wrote, "Excellent coverage from Lora ..", I literally puked.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Do the math. The U.S. pickup truck fleet emits far more C02 than small European cars.
Now guess why Semi is also a higher priority than the compact car.
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True. But even with all lines running now, Q4 is expected to be somewhere in the 470k-500k range, so BYD & Tesla are still at similar levels (+/- 10%).
I have no idea how much BYD is expected to grow their EV number in Q4, but it seems a logical discussion now to project whether or not BYD surpasses Tesla in EV shipments in 2024.
We know CT is going to be a slow ramp according to Elon, and ultimately not be a huge volume mover in 2024, so the question is how much the Y scales in Berlin & Austin soon, the answer to which is currently not very clear. Berlin is currently capped at 375k projected output for Y (~90k per quarter) while awaiting further future approved factory expansion (Probably for next gen car), while Austin Y line (>250k) seemingly now using 2170 as the 4680 is going to CT, and those 2170s from Giga Nevada are shared with Fremont & Lathrop, so unsure how much near term capacity increase there is available there.
Would say the odds of “BYD surpasses Tesla in EV production” headline in 2024 are probably 50/50
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, Elon never said any such thing (no quote?) Read the Master Plan. His long term goal for Tesla is exactly the opposite: 'Start at the top and move down to the mass-market'.
If you're referring to the Walter Isaacson Bio, Elon did not have to be convinced to make the compact car. He just wanted to build Robotaxi first. His team convinced him to make both cars on the same (flex) line. Big difference.
@uscbucsfan, you said:
I don't think Elon ever said he didn't want to make a cheap car. I also don't think he ever said cheap cars have no margins.
I've heard him say many times that they needed to get the cost down to half of what it takes to make a Model 3. I've heard him say that it's going to be hard. But I've never heard him say he didn't want to do it and they will have no margins.
Please do find the podcast. I'm often wrong in my recollections.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Megapacks built at the Lathrop, CA Megafactory use CATL LFP cells, nothing from Giga Nevada. That's an extra 40GWh/yr supply, which already exceeds Panasonic capacity in Nevada.
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Perhaps the reason for delaying the small affordable city car was the word "affordable". Tesla is in a much better place now to deliver an affordable car with adequate margin.
Mod: 14 posts about "stalk talk" were deleted. The discussion was done months ago. The next person who raises the issue again gets a timeout. The bragging about who gets the best or worst tire mileage can be considered over too. --ggr
Nope. The goal is not lower cost cars. The goal is displacing fossil fuel burning. And selling 2M $50k cars satisfies that goal just as much as selling 2M $10k cars. ‘Tis math.
i.e. Affordable cars are a means to an end. They are NOT the end.
And
The Model 3 was also difficult at first. I didn't say that it would be soon (although it might be soon after the initial line gets going well).
Agree that 2m $50k cars eliminates the same amount of fossil fuel usage as 2m $10k cars.
But tesla isn’t going to get to a 5m vehicle annual run rate selling $50k cars, let alone 10m or 20m.
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