because solar city, solar roof, powerwall would be my guess
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Convertibles are another one of those issues where there aren't many on the road, but we can't really be sure if the sales are truly limited by demand or supply. I know that modern safety requirements make it harder to produce reasonable convertibles, which would result in fewer manufacturers even trying. I can also imagine a lot of manufacturers not wanting to do double the engineering and offer both a convertible and non-convertible version of many cars like in the days of yore.
That being said, a quick google search for "what percentage of cars are convertibles" lead me to this interesting note:
"The convertible was once part of American culture, but it has fallen victim to changing tastes and an ever-evolving economy. Every five years, the number of convertibles sold drops by seven percent. According to edmunds.com, less than 1% of cars sold in the United States are convertibles today."
JupiterMan
Active Member
This announcement has come on the back of recent work done by the UK Law Commission on the legal aspects of self driving cars.
Essentially, if my understanding is correct, UK are looking at dual regulation, with UNECE and UK rules running in parallel. Thus any car sold to the UK will need to be either UNECE or UK compliant.
Now, whether Tesla go ahead and tailor FSD for the UK market, or just wait for forthcoming UNECE to do all those countries in one go we don't know. Likely the latter I expect.
But possibly a get out of jail card for the UK should UNECE keep dragging its feet, or if UK regs do not differ to wildly from that proposed by UNECE, allowing earlier implementation.
Convertibles are great until you actually own one.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
To paraphrase the late, great Jimmy B, it's 4:20 somewhere... and I'm happy to report that my CyberBeer has arrived. 
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Highly unlikely that Tesla would take liability for FSD, especially at this point while they still call it Level 2, so I doubt they would try to go for UK rule compliance.
Anyone seen LCID's results?
-$433kcar sold
Lucid reported Q3 revenue of $137.8 million on deliveries of 1,457 vehicles and produced 1,550 vehicles. The company is also adjusting its production outlook for 2023 to 8,000 – 8,500 vehicles to prudently align with deliveries.
How much longer can they stay alive?
-$433kcar sold
Lucid reported Q3 revenue of $137.8 million on deliveries of 1,457 vehicles and produced 1,550 vehicles. The company is also adjusting its production outlook for 2023 to 8,000 – 8,500 vehicles to prudently align with deliveries.
How much longer can they stay alive?
Just a short OT update on Lucid with their Q3 reprot out today. (sorry if this is not the place for it, or ensuing posts goes off rail).
-2023 production guidance lowered from 10,000 to 8,000-8,500 (at beginning of year, guidance was 12,000 for 2023)
-Loss $0.28/share on sale of $138M, beats analysts estimate $0.40/share from sale of $178M (less sales, less loss)
-Operating loss $753M, beats 830M analysts estimate (again, less production/sales, less loss)
-Q3 production 1,550 units that brings total production until end of Q3 to 6,000. This means they need to increase production to at least 2,000 for this last quarter to meet the revised guidence of 8,000.
-2023 production guidance lowered from 10,000 to 8,000-8,500 (at beginning of year, guidance was 12,000 for 2023)
-Loss $0.28/share on sale of $138M, beats analysts estimate $0.40/share from sale of $178M (less sales, less loss)
-Operating loss $753M, beats 830M analysts estimate (again, less production/sales, less loss)
-Q3 production 1,550 units that brings total production until end of Q3 to 6,000. This means they need to increase production to at least 2,000 for this last quarter to meet the revised guidence of 8,000.
So this means that the TSLA share price will go down tomorrow?
/s
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Maybe it is just one of those jokes where you don't get the punchline until later.
Thanks to it being chair-splitting humor at least you are at break even now.
Hey at least it's acting like a stable mega cap now.
GhostSkater
Member
Preaching to the choir, I know, but Tesla vs Lucid at the same stage of existence
From
From
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
If Lucid made only one change to their SG&A expense line, they'd be far closer to being net income neutral: they need to stop paying their CEO for his (non-)performance.
Lucid was incorporated in 2007; Tesla Motors in 2003. An argument could be made that we should be comparing Lucid's 2023 numbers to Tesla's 2019 numbers, as opposed to their 2012 numbers...
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
No, Since the price target doesn't say 2030 it's a 12 month price target.
It's easy to make that mistake since they are using 2030 numbers and working back to the 12 month target. But that is the math they are doing, they are saying if Tesla does X in 2030 then the price in 1 year should be Y.
All the discussion of the Roadster 202(X???) misses perhaps the single-most important reason (IMHO) to release it: Because they said they would. In fact, this applies to all the announced products Tesla has taken reservation monies for vs the endless discussion of the various products that Tesla could potentially make. To some degree, it's what causes some consternation when Tesla announces new products while not having delivered the products already announced many years ago.
In that frame of mind, here is a proposed priority order for the automotive side of Tesla:
1. CyberTruck delivery ramp over the next 12 months. This is only ranked #1 due to the impending launch and the expectation that within 6 months the CyberTruck can be manufactured on a true line (not just by hand), reasonably automated within 12 months.
2. Semi manufacturing on an automated assembly line within the next 12 months. As the 1 year anniversary of deliveries of hand-assembled semi trucks approaches, it is interesting that the quarterly report for 2022 Q4 mentioned the launch, listed it in pilot production, and included it in the disclaimer; 2023 Q1 and Q2 dropped the mention of the launch but kept the other two, and 2023 Q3 even excluded it from the disclaimer (most likely a typo, but still interesting). The sporadic bits of information which can be found don't portray a convincing image of an automated assembly line for significant manufacturing starting any time soon. There's precious little to even indicate material numbers have been hand-assembled since then on the existing line. Even in the worst-case scenario where for some reason Tesla has determined it is not ready for mass manufacturing, continuing to hand-assemble units would allow for greater internal learning / validations. These do not even need to be sent to external customers; Tesla can and should prioritize replacing their short-haul semis with Tesla semis ASAP; first for short routes, then for longer and routes as MegaChargers get deployed. When they are confident in the product and the automated assembly process, ship to external customers. But get building them again.
3. Roadster 2024 hand-built and delivered to external customers by Dec 31, 2024. These will likely never need to be built on an automated assembly line. The volume can be strictly limited, the price can be doubled and still sell out, etc. But a promise made is a promise to be kept.
To be clear: Yes, certainly plans can change...but unless and until Tesla removes these from the product roadmap, actually building the vehicles that they have announced, taken deposits / reservations on, etc, should be far higher priority than un-announced or announced-but-no-reservations-taken vehicles. The $25k vehicle will be nice, the robotaxi will be nice, and, yes, even a standard pickup truck body on an existing platform (S/X platform, perhaps) that could be built very quickly even if it doesn't have the towing / range / exoskeleton / extras of the CyberTruck would be nice. But deliver what has already been sold before anything else.
In that frame of mind, here is a proposed priority order for the automotive side of Tesla:
1. CyberTruck delivery ramp over the next 12 months. This is only ranked #1 due to the impending launch and the expectation that within 6 months the CyberTruck can be manufactured on a true line (not just by hand), reasonably automated within 12 months.
2. Semi manufacturing on an automated assembly line within the next 12 months. As the 1 year anniversary of deliveries of hand-assembled semi trucks approaches, it is interesting that the quarterly report for 2022 Q4 mentioned the launch, listed it in pilot production, and included it in the disclaimer; 2023 Q1 and Q2 dropped the mention of the launch but kept the other two, and 2023 Q3 even excluded it from the disclaimer (most likely a typo, but still interesting). The sporadic bits of information which can be found don't portray a convincing image of an automated assembly line for significant manufacturing starting any time soon. There's precious little to even indicate material numbers have been hand-assembled since then on the existing line. Even in the worst-case scenario where for some reason Tesla has determined it is not ready for mass manufacturing, continuing to hand-assemble units would allow for greater internal learning / validations. These do not even need to be sent to external customers; Tesla can and should prioritize replacing their short-haul semis with Tesla semis ASAP; first for short routes, then for longer and routes as MegaChargers get deployed. When they are confident in the product and the automated assembly process, ship to external customers. But get building them again.
3. Roadster 2024 hand-built and delivered to external customers by Dec 31, 2024. These will likely never need to be built on an automated assembly line. The volume can be strictly limited, the price can be doubled and still sell out, etc. But a promise made is a promise to be kept.
To be clear: Yes, certainly plans can change...but unless and until Tesla removes these from the product roadmap, actually building the vehicles that they have announced, taken deposits / reservations on, etc, should be far higher priority than un-announced or announced-but-no-reservations-taken vehicles. The $25k vehicle will be nice, the robotaxi will be nice, and, yes, even a standard pickup truck body on an existing platform (S/X platform, perhaps) that could be built very quickly even if it doesn't have the towing / range / exoskeleton / extras of the CyberTruck would be nice. But deliver what has already been sold before anything else.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Thanks for clearing that up. I presumed it was a 1 year SP, but all the mentions of 2030 made it somewhat ambiguous.
Glancing at my spreadsheet, it currently shows slightly less than their Base Case numbers for 2024, which offers some confirmation that my numbers are reasonable by comparison.
Though, I don't calculate for separate Bear, Base, and Bull cases. All I figure for is Basket Case.
Price dictates the volumes to some extent, not many will be able to afford it.
The rationale remains the same "hardcore smackdown of ICE cars", which helps sell all other Tesla cars. And also "why not?"
IMO there are 3 likely reasons why it has been pushed to the back of the queue:-
- Other products had a higher priority.
- Waiting for a specific battery type / energy density.
- Waiting on Gigacastings (with the casting machines to be shared with other models?).
In low volumes the body can be carbon-fibre or something like that.
It can be low volumes something similar to unboxed. low automation, not much space required.
They would not want a conventional body shop with joined pieces of metal if they can avoid it, if they can start with castings the rest of the build is straight forward.
But when we do starting thinking about it, there are always more issues than we initially imagined, and we have barely scratched the surface.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
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