Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

If you go back to my original posts I specifically cite towing and off-roading as the "only a minority of truck owners actually do it" items.

Using the bed, on the contrary, I pointed out roughly 2/3rds do more than 0 or 1 times.

So I think it'd be helpful for you not to conflate those.

Not conflating them. Examples of the capability of a truck that can't be easily be satisfied by other vehicles.

Unless you only ever used it 0 or 1 times each year you're not in the majority of truck owners we're discussing though.

Someone using it daily for a multi-week vacation is towing more than 0 or 1 times a year after all.

I admit it's unfortunate the data doesn't break out the % that is 0 vs the % that is 1, but I can think of very very few applications where it's just ONE tow a year that a rented truck (or a tow truck can't handle (for example I do know a guy who NEVER tows apart from when a neighbor gets stuck someplace and a tow truck'd do that fine)


Again, towing daily for 1-2 weeks is not the 0 or 1 time group, which is 75% of truck owners, we're discussing. (Ditto the 70% of truck owners who go off-road 0 or 1 times a year.


In any event, since trading is open tomorrow this might be better taken to one of the CT-specific threads where much of this discussion has already happened anyway- may I suggest:

Launch is Imminent

140 should be doable. One of those side by side weighs what around 1000 to 1500 lbs? Unless you are towing it inside a large Toy Hauler. 1,825lbs for the machine, trailer is around 800lbs. Toy hauler or enclosed v nose trailer are off the table.

teslamotorsclub.com

Yes.

In time it became so rarely that I no longer own any sort of truck or SUV (having owned both) and I just rent when needed (which again is rare). Works fine and I don't have to get garbage mileage all the rest of the year (or any mileage now that the last ICE vehicle is a Model 3)

Well, if you are suggesting that "towing 1 time a year" means a singular session, then does that make a round trip 2 times? Otherwise, how do you get home? lol

In any case I would suggest that for many "once a year" means that usage interval (i.e.- a vacation)... that's certainly how I consider it.

So, given that your interpretation is very different, and more so that this is an investor thread, I'll bow out.

 

[navguy12]

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[GrandEnigma]

Huge missed marketing opportunity with Cybertruck event not being on Cyber Monday. Womp.

 

[ggr]

If you go back to my original posts I specifically cite towing and off-roading as the "only a minority of truck owners actually do it" items.

Using the bed, on the contrary, I pointed out roughly 2/3rds do more than 0 or 1 times.

So I think it'd be helpful for you not to conflate those.




Unless you only ever used it 0 or 1 times each year you're not in the majority of truck owners we're discussing though.

Someone using it daily for a multi-week vacation is towing more than 0 or 1 times a year after all.

I admit it's unfortunate the data doesn't break out the % that is 0 vs the % that is 1, but I can think of very very few applications where it's just ONE tow a year that a rented truck (or a tow truck can't handle (for example I do know a guy who NEVER tows apart from when a neighbor gets stuck someplace and a tow truck'd do that fine)



Again, towing daily for 1-2 weeks is not the 0 or 1 time group, which is 75% of truck owners, we're discussing. (Ditto the 70% of truck owners who go off-road 0 or 1 times a year.




In any event, since trading is open tomorrow this might be better taken to one of the CT-specific threads where much of this discussion has already happened anyway- may I suggest:

Launch is Imminent

140 should be doable. One of those side by side weighs what around 1000 to 1500 lbs? Unless you are towing it inside a large Toy Hauler. 1,825lbs for the machine, trailer is around 800lbs. Toy hauler or enclosed v nose trailer are off the table.

teslamotorsclub.com

Yes.

In time it became so rarely that I no longer own any sort of truck or SUV (having owned both) and I just rent when needed (which again is rare). Works fine and I don't have to get garbage mileage all the rest of the year (or any mileage now that the last ICE vehicle is a Model 3)

I'm in Australia (probably the other country with a similar prevalence of what we are talking about), and with this thread in mind did a count this morning on a drive from Kiama back to Sydney (about 100 miles, some rural, some freeways, some surface streets). Only about 1 in 4 trucks even had a towbar fitted, and about 1 in 3 were commercial vehicles, and many of them didn't have a towbar fitting either.

Mod: soon it won't be the weekend any more, so wrap this discussion up too please. --ggr

 

[powertoold]

Huge missed marketing opportunity with Cybertruck event not being on Cyber Monday. Womp.

I disagree, it would be cheesy, plus Cyber Monday is about sales and discounts, nothing associated with CT's vision. Even the idea of Tesla launching the CT on CM and talking about CM during the presentation puts a bad taste in my mouth.

 

[GrandEnigma]

I disagree, it would be cheesy, plus Cyber Monday is about sales and discounts, nothing associated with CT's vision. Even the idea of Tesla launching the CT on CM and talking about CM during the presentation puts a bad taste in my mouth.

I disagree with your disagree. I don’t wanna wait another four days.

 

[dhanson865]

Huge missed marketing opportunity with Cybertruck event not being on Cyber Monday. Womp.

Having it on Cyber Monday would be competing with all the other retailers for ads and news coverage that day. It might sound on point but it'd be as bad or worse than releasing it on Christmas Day or April Fools.

 

[TesslaBull]

Not conflating them. Examples of the capability of a truck that can't be easily be satisfied by other vehicles.



Well, if you are suggesting that "towing 1 time a year" means a singular session, then does that make a round trip 2 times? Otherwise, how do you get home? lol

In any case I would suggest that for many "once a year" means that usage interval (i.e.- a vacation)... that's certainly how I consider it.

So, given that your interpretation is very different, and more so that this is an investor thread, I'll bow out.

It seems like he is simply trying to say that work trucks/pickups are not needed by the vast majority of those who drive them, since they simply commute to work alone and get groceries, and just *want* to drive a work truck. I fall into that vast majority that don't tow and haul on a regular basis, so don't need the additional size, cost, and wastefulness of a giant, inefficient work truck for my daily commuting/grocery runs. I did need a pickup one time this year. So, I spent $20 and rented one from Home Depot to bring a large item home. It was an F250 Stoopid Dooty. What an awful vehicle to drive. Would be pretty dumb for me to drive a 13 mpg giant work truck every day for that.

Americans love driving giant work pickup trucks for commuting despite not needing such a ridiculous vehicle most of the time. It's a result, IMO, of our cheap energy prices compared to other countries that allows us to be extraordinarily wasteful. Europeans don't drive giant 12 mpg pickups back and forth to work in large part because it would be stupid with $8/gallon gas. Almost no one, close to zero, drive work trucks/pickups unless they are using them for actual work/business purposes. Even then, more practical work vans are used that have secure, covered cargo areas.

Then, we(giant pickup truck owners) complain about whichever president is in office, since it is obviously *their* fault that we are paying so much for gas to fuel our giant innefficient clown commuter pickup truck. Obviously our own decision to own such a ridiculous vehicle for everyday commuting purposes has nothing to do with it.

The Cybertruck will sell great in the US. Some will even need/use its capabilities frequently. It will sell great to many who don't.

TSLA is the only single stock I own so I am eager to see what the CT event does to TSLA . I figure if TSLA goes 5-10x from here, it's a *really* nice boost for me. If it goes to hell in a hand basket, I won't notice. Betting on the former, obviously. (Not just from CT event, but next gen, batteries, solar, etc,)

 

[Stretch2727]

Having it on Cyber Monday would be competing with all the other retailers for ads and news coverage that day. It might sound on point but it'd be as bad or worse than releasing it on Christmas Day or April Fools.

Tesla has ads?

 

[geometro]

EXOSKELETON​

Are the external plates load bearing? No, but it is about 3mm of steel on the outside of the vehicle, by comparison a WWI tank had weak 6mm steel. The Cybertruck isn't a tank by modern standards but for a consumer grade mass market vehicle this Cybertruck is the closest thing to bullet proof to ever see the road.

Spoiler: Think about angle of incidence

If someone is firing at 90 degree angle to the metal most anything will go through, but as the angle changes the penetration value to make it through starts being a factor.

What will it block at 75 degrees? And at 60 degrees? And at 45 degrees? (and by block I mean not penetrate, which includes any ricochets as successfully blocked)

Is Tesla armor glass bullet proof? No it isn't, again it's tougher than the glass you will see on any other consumer grade mass market vehicle.

There is no change to the durability claims for either of these, Essentially the reveal prototype got made into a production vehicle. They call it an exoskeleton in terms of it having a hard external shell, not in terms of load bearing.

PERFORMANCE AND EFFICIENCY​

The 500 mile range claim is still there. Less than a week to reveal and they haven't backed off that 500 mile claim yet.

Cybertruck

Cybertruck is designed to have the utility of a truck with sports car performance. Built to be durable, versatile, capable and high-performance both on-road and off-road.

www.tesla.com

Website likely not updated… still says “room for six”, which we know isn’t happening.

 

[lafrisbee]

Said like somebody who "got out of most of their position 6 months ago". Based on a lot of your posts I think you're trying to convince yourself doing this was the right move. If I understand correctly it was something you had to do at the time anyway. But there's no need to be so bitter about it. Prepare to be entirely wrong about the Cybertruck.

well I can see I was misread, AND the candidness of what I write does not equate to one trusting what I say unless some of you want to think a certain way>
I didn't have to get out. I got out because I had enough money to live life at my level for the next...well longer than I am going to be alive. AND I BELIEVED ELON WHEN HE POSTED IT WAS GOING TO BE ROUGH FOR THE NEXT YEAR.
I do have a position, just much much less than before. And in a year (6 months) I will revisit TSLA's metrics.
BTW it is a real crappy person that argues about a point by attacking the poster. Ad Hominem. It notes that the attacker is lost and defending an undefendable belief.

 

[lafrisbee]

The skin might not be a primary load bearing structure but unless they mounted it with silly putty it's going to be part of the overall stiffness and will carry some loads just by virtue of being 3mm steel.

So saying it lacks an exoskeleton is being a bit pedantic.

Since no cars are held together with silly putty, and all (99%) have panels that are firmly attached All cars have exoskeletons. So then an exoskeleton of your description is nothing special.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Cern Basher works through his models for 5 of the “startups” within Tesla. Warning, might leave you giddy with possibilities. Stay grounded.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla has ads?

yes, they are tiptoeing into ads on YouTube and Google

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Website likely not updated… still says “room for six”, which we know isn’t happening.

Well I'm sure you can fit six, just but seat them.

Since no cars are held together with silly putty, and all (99%) have panels that are firmly attached All cars have exoskeletons. So then an exoskeleton of your description is nothing special.

Depending on the panel, they might as well be tissue paper by comparison. The sides and rear quarter are typically more securely fashioned but it's not uncommon for the hood, fenders, and bumper skins to only be attached with a few bolts. The CT by comparison would be structural elements.

Huge missed marketing opportunity with Cybertruck event not being on Cyber Monday. Womp.

Cyber Thursday will probably be better since it should be just Tesla.

 

[2daMoon]

Since no cars are held together with silly putty, and all (99%) have panels that are firmly attached All cars have exoskeletons. So then an exoskeleton of your description is nothing special.

You must have missed the part of the CT reveal where Franz hit the "normal" truck door with the sledgehammer.

Then, he hit the "nothing special" NOTA-Exoskeleton door.

 

[dhanson865]

Tesla has ads?

Having it on Cyber Monday would be competing with all the other retailers for ads and news coverage that day. It might sound on point but it'd be as bad or worse than releasing it on Christmas Day or April Fools.

What you'll see on and around Cyber Monday is "news" coverage that amounts to ads. It can be a reporter standing in front of a mall, or store front, or by a line of people. I can be a person behind a news desk talking about the sales. It could even be a company employee being interviewed.

The point is when they are so busy covering everyone else the coverage they would allocate for Tesla would be reduced/or eliminated.

Tesla doesn't pay for coverage, but retailers on Black Friday/Cyber Monday do. The one that pays will get more coverage.

So it's in Tesla's best interest to have a reveal on an otherwise slow news day. One where the paying advertisers aren't hogging the air time.

 

[Todd Burch]

Tesla Bot can't come fast enough, no?

How slow. A human could have 10 times the throughput. Hope those robots are only on speed 1 of 10 or they’re not going to gain a foothold.

And speaking of feet, they’re taking a lot of steps to go almost nowhere…

 

[2daMoon]

How slow. A human could have 10 times the throughput. Hope those robots are only on speed 1 of 10 or they’re not going to gain a foothold.

And speaking of feet, they’re taking a lot of steps to go almost nowhere…

Maybe that robot could try some Yoga to loosen up?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Having it on Cyber Monday would be competing with all the other retailers for ads and news coverage that day. It might sound on point but it'd be as bad or worse than releasing it on Christmas Day or April Fools.

And besides, knowing the way Elon rolls, the company is working 24x7 to be ready by November 30th as it is...