Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
My estimate is literally based on what they've already done (did you read the Jun to Oct part?). The don't need to improve anything, but it's extremely likely that they will.Well, line capacity != line production. If they can't make use of the cells, they'll just idle the line. Not to mention that the cell line needs perfect supply chain inputs of its own and as a new cell manufacturer, Tesla may very well go through teething issues just on that.
Tesla removed the Made-in-Texas Model Y from the website about a month ago. Right now the only batteries available in Model Y are 2170s from Giga Nevada or LFP from CATL.And can't the cells also be used in Model Y?
Tesla is clearly all-in on Cybertruck production. The battery supply is the bottle neck. Of course other issues may arise in the supply chain, but you don't plan your production volume assuming that will occur, or it will (because you under-ordered parts).
Brian White of My Tesla Weekend channel says he has a inside source at a supplier who claimed 89K volume planned for 2024. I highly doubt Tesla is ordering specific volomes of parts 14 mths in advance. 4 months sure, that's a firm order, and take-or-pay applies to lock it in. But if Tesla decides to double their orders and give their suppliers 6 mths notice, they'd better be ready to ramp up fast (or get rolled over by their competitors).
Tesla doesn't single-source parts anymore. They'll even bring parts production in house if they need to. They literally have the designs and CAD files for everything they buy, and can make it themselves if needed.
The only exception is the 4680 cell. There are no 3rd-party suppliers ready to deliver cells yet. Cells must come from Giga Texas, that makes it the bottleneck. Everything else will be noise, and will be handled. That said, Tesla has already done huge work in de-risking the 4680 ramp, from development at Fremont to interations at Austin, and now with a very conservative v2 cell design in production on Line 1. The line itself maybe in the sixth or seventh revision as Tesla learned by doing smaller production runs, then pausing to retool.
It's most likely that it now all works, and the ramp goes as planned. What Morgan Stanley doesn't know is the plan. Again:
I estimate 80K - 120K CTs produced in 2024.
#predict
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