Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

No. If you follow Jordan Giesige (The Limiting Factor) on youtube and X he will probably do a teardown of the CT cell once he can get one. From there he may speculate on the future improvements they can make.

The Battery roadmap is something Tesla got from Maxwell Technologies when it purchased them back in 2019. Detailed recipes are coming from Dr. Jeff Dahn at Tesla's cell chemistry test lab at Dalhousie U. in Halifax. His youtube videos are legion (and legend)

Also, lot's of scientific papers published and accessible through Google Scholar. No surprises here, we know where bty tech is going:

Grant, Patrick S., et al. "Roadmap on Li-ion battery manufacturing research." Journal of Physics: Energy 4.4 (2022): 042006.​

 

[transpondster]

When talking about future batteries I like to remember this Panasonic PR form 2009 it announced cell which went to Model S and also Silicon anode cell which supposed to appear year later...

 

[Artful Dodger]

When talking about future batteries I like to remember this Panasonic PR form 2009 it announced cell which went to Model S and also Silicon anode cell which supposed to appear year later...

The issue with high silicon anode is longevity / degradation. Tesla had this issue with the original Model S - 90 battery. The problem turned out to be cracking in the silicon caused by excessive expansion/contraction of the silicon during a charge/discharge cycle. The cracks led to exposing more area which could consume lithium, making it unavailable for further reactions, and thus lowering cell capacity.

Dr. Jeff Dahn has shown that this issue is solved via monocrystal silicon. Each crystal consists of a single lattice, with no joints or overlaps where fractures can begin and turn into cracks. His latest NCM 6-2-2 chemistry with monocrystal silicon cathode has been shown to have a life cyle of over 16,000 cycles. This is potentially a 5-million-mile, 50-year battery.

Modern Lithium-Ion Batteries: More than a Million Miles and Possibly a Centruy of Life w. Prof. Jeff Dahn | Lorna Casselton Lecture May 2023 | Oxford, UK

Cheers to the Long-lived!

 

[jerry33]

If you get the tent you can make your CT your house.

My X was my house for about eight weeks during the remodel.

 

[Electroman]

MKBHD has just under 18 million subscribers, New York Times has 9.4 million subscribers.

Conclude as you will.

In addition you can also see the massive gulf in active engagement between MKBHD posts & videos and any of the main stream media posts. Almost like 10:1 or even 100:1 ratio in favor of these influencers.

 

[Gigapress]

Based on the claim it can charge up to 136 miles in 15 minutes at 250 kW, I am calculating:

460 Wh / mile (414)

or

2.176 miles / kWH efficiency (2.4)


Based on this, the 340 mile range Cybertruck has a ~ 156 kWh (140) battery pack. The 250 range, presumably LFP, would require a 115 kWh (103) battery pack.

Edit: This didn't assume heat losses during charging. If we assume a 10% loss to heat, the number change to what is in the parentheses.

Tesla gave the answer for the All-Wheel Drive version as 429 Wh/mile. This information is on the website, buried in the See Details explanation of estimated gas savings.

Probably the rear wheel drive version is more efficient, and Cyberbeast is probably about 429*340/320 = 456 Wh/mi.

Supposedly the Cybertruck battery is only 123 kWh. With 340 miles of nominal range, that’s 362 Wh/mile. The website numbers are much higher. It will be interesting to see real world testing and the official numbers on fueleconomy.gov

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Guys, this is annoying. I bought a condo for my Model 3. Now I gotta by a detached house for my Cybertruck.

Skip the house and get a warehouse, to be ready for Semi

 

[Electroman]

Just for laughs !!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1731541926623825984

 

[dhanson865]

Just for laughs !!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1731541926623825984

On the vein of what the subtitles said, here is an offer to buy it at twice the price.

We Will Buy Your Cybertruck for $200,000 - Resell Calendar

Resell Calendar announces an exclusive offer to purchase a Tesla Cybertruck for $200,000, a considerable premium over its retail price.

resellcalendar.com

 

[SmokyPeat]

Does anybody here have a good theory on why Tesla China (including exports) sales were down about 18% in November, YoY? Was it more production or demand related?

 

[30seconds]

It’s not just crash safety though. The stainless has the durability and corrosion resistance benefits, and no paint shop.

Putting the strength in the skin makes the structure more rigid, holding mass constant. Cybertruck is structurally designed like a boat, airplane or rocket, all of which use stressed-skin designs primarily in order to save weight. As a result, Cybertruck can haul more than similarly sized and configured trucks with similar mass, despite the penalty from carrying a heavy battery and from stainless steel having worse specific strength than aluminum or high-strength steel. Body on frame trucks have inefficient structural design, especially for resisting torsional loads. Cybertruck’s stiff structure combined with the air suspension should make for much better handling performance both on and off road. I think stainless steel is the only decent material for an exoskeleton structure for this application, because aluminum and regular steel need (easily damageable) paint for corrosion protection and they suffer surface damage more easily that can gradually develop over time into more serious structural weak points.

The stainless also makes it attract attention which is, in itself, marketing at zero additional cost.

Based on the 3 mm thickness and approximate surface area, I estimate Cybertruck has roughly 250 kg of stainless steel in the exoskeleton. This should cost approximately $1k for the material, and the delta between that cost and equivalent conventional materials is less, since those aren’t free themselves. The material cost itself is not very much. It remains to be seen how total net cost will balance out.

Stainless steel exterior is the cornerstone of this whole design.

Yes I agree that SS has lots of benefits. There was some commentary from Franz that they were able to redesign the body to take advantage of the SS exterior, but overall I'm still not seeing any evidence of weight savings.

Curb weight of the cybertruck AWD is ~6600 lbs vs. ~5000lbs for an F150 Supercrew 4x4 V8

The F150 Lighting with extended battery is 6400 to 6900lbs depending on trim level

Won't matter very much if they can get production ramped and battery performance up 15%

 

[saniflash]

Does anybody here have a good theory on why Tesla China (including exports) sales were down about 18% in November, YoY? Was it more production or demand related?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1731689072328864046

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does anybody here have a good theory on why Tesla China (including exports) sales were down about 18% in November, YoY? Was it more production or demand related?

You really need to stop reading rotoREUTERS headlines. Don't you know about 'ending-the-wave'? Did those FUD-jockeys mention that? Or leave you to swing?

 

[SmokyPeat]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1731689072328864046

Thanks. Sounds like a decent explanation. So I guess we should expect a significant overperformance in Dec. sales YoY.

 

[SmokyPeat]

You really need to stop reading rotoREUTERS headlines. Don't you know about 'ending-the-wave'? Did those FUD-jockeys mention that? Or leave you to swing?

Did Reuters write something about it? I read about it in this InsideEVs article.

Tesla China-Made EV Wholesale Sales Fell 18% In November 2023

In November, the overall wholesale vehicle shipments (local retail sales and exports) of Tesla Made-in-China (MIC) cars decreased compared to a year ago.

insideevs-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[Artful Dodger]

Curb weight of the cybertruck AWD is ~6600 lbs vs. ~5000lbs for an F150 Supercrew 4x4 V8

Curb weight is 6,470 lbs for a 2022 Ford F-150 XLT 4x4 SuperCrew Cab (5.5 ft. box, 145 inch wheelbase)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Did Reuters write something about it? I read about it in this InsideEVs article.

InsiderEVs is just parroting today's FUD from REUTERS. It's b.s. and a waste of time to follow either of these sources.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Curb weight is 6,470 lbs for a 2022 Ford F-150 XLT 4x4 SuperCrew Cab (5.5 ft. box, 145 inch wheelbase)

That's the gross weight, not the curb weight. Unless you got confused and looked up the Lightning curb weight- which may or may not be about that.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1731922162934505565

 

[Causalien]

If you get the tent you can make your CT your house.

Ya, getting the space camper.

Space Campers - Camper Shells for the Tesla Cybertruck

Camping accessories to maximize the Tesla Cybertruck's outdoor performance. Discover Space Campers wedge campers, truck caps and accessories.

spacecampers.com

But that doesn't solve the problem of the truck being bigger than most parking spot here.