Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dhanson865]

OK, so I've been looking for public EV data and I've found this, hovering over the bar segments gives me BEV vs PHEV numbers in .1 million increments so I can pull enough to edit my spreadsheet.

IEA (2023), Global EV Outlook 2023, IEA, Paris Global EV Outlook 2023 – Analysis - IEA, License: CC BY 4.0




and as a reminder I'm using 2022 statistics | www.oica.net for my ICE data.

Peak ICE production/sales is 2017 assuming 2023 and higher don't break that peak.




I don't have any great confidence in my future projections but I'm putting it at here for now. I'm assuming that PHEVs are in the OICA data but even if they aren't I'm excluding them from the BEV bars, at worst it's a slight exclusion that won't change the graph much.

View attachment 997651

I just sent an email to OICA to hopefully clarify the dataset. If they are counting BEVs then I'm double counting BEVs in my graph. I'm hoping they are gas/diesel only, otherwise my graph gets less and less accurate after 2017.

If the OICA is including BEVs I guess I'd have to use a single source (and maybe pay) to get a proper graph done.

I understand why people want to charge for the most recent data but it's frustrating that you can't just go out and get verifiable clear historical data without having to really pick it apart and challenge your own assumptions.

 

[TesLeif]

You mean sticking to their business culture, continuing to not break any laws, continuing to provide better wages and benefits than the union requires, continuing to ignore the bully in the room that has failed to keep itself relevant in changing times -

I’d say Tesla is being dead serious.

I wonder if Tesla could get temporary German plates and offer an incentive for new owners to take delivery at Giga Berlin (reduce the vehicle price by the shipping cost); include a free Giga Berlin factory tour and some other perks. Tesla could hire buses to get all the Scandinavians to Giga Berlin.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

So this new Christmas release parky visual thing. Does it bring back auto park or is it just a nicer GUI? Facebook groups seem split. Anyone in the know?

 

[Krugerrand]

I wonder if Tesla could get temporary German plates and offer an incentive for new owners to take delivery at Giga Berlin (reduce the vehicle price by the shipping cost); include a free Giga Berlin factory tour and some other perks. Tesla could hire buses to get all the Scandinavians to Giga Berlin.

I’ve no doubt Tesla will navigate the hostility the way they have for over a decade. They will be agile and innovative, and will not give in or give up.

 

[dhanson865]

Is that saying over 40% of new cars next year will be EVs? With near 80 million total sales? That's over 32 million EVs in 2024.

I don't see how that's remotely possible given current EV production from all the players and what even legacy's own most optimistic current predictions are on future production (plus Teslas for that matter)

Even if we pretend Tesla at 50% YoY (and even Elon says they won't do that much in 2024) that's only about 2.7 million EVs. Where are the other ~29 million+ coming from?

Did you look at the IEA chart? It ends at 2022 and has 18.3 million BEVs.

The vast majority are in China.

Do you think that is a cumulative number and not a per year number?

 

[uscbucsfan]

I drive all over. I currently drive my mountain where weather conditions can, and often do, change every 1000’. I seriously don’t have any issues of consequence with my auto wipers, nor have I ever. ‍ Maybe you all should talk nicer to your cars.

No, I’m not suggesting people are making it up. I am suggesting that some people should be more accurate with their statements.

Saying Tesla needs to fix auto wipers really should be ‘I want Tesla to fix auto wipers on my car.’ Because I don’t want a change that fixes yours and buggers mine.

Especially in the 11.4.7/8 FSD stack, with Tesla's newer wiper coding, the wipers rarely work in the pouring rain, but will dry wipe. The algorithm to sense rain is terrible. Tesla Service says they get "a ton of complaints per month", but it's a fleet wide issue that will be fixed in a future update.

I posted on FB an overcast day where my wipers started going crazy, degraded my maximum speed to 60 mph in a 70 mph, then when it started actually raining, they stopped and my speed was increased.

The wipers were fine...not as good as normal cars with rain sensors, but fine, for me and seemingly many, prior to the newer updates. Auto is unusable for any of my Teslas (all on 11.4.8.1 now). I have to change to manual when it rains.

It's the same complaint people have with USS. Tesla tries to do everything with vision, which is more cost effective, but there are areas where Tesla really struggles and it negatively impacts uses.

 

[JusRelax]

One more spot to go for MY to become the most registered vehicle in the US of 2023. MY surpassed the Toyota RAV4 to become the second most registered vehicle in the US in 2023 up through Q3.

Source: https://www.kbb.com/car-news/tesla-model-y-jumps-to-2nd-in-new-vehicle-registrations/

 

[Knightshade]

Did you look at the IEA chart? It ends at 2022 and has 18.3 million BEVs.

The vast majority are in China.

Do you think that is a cumulative number and not a per year number?

Electric vehicles - IEA

Although the global share of electric mobility is still small, the EV fleet is expanding quickly. Ambitious policy announcements have been critical in stimulating the electric mobility transition in major vehicle markets.

www.iea.org

This says 10.7 million actual EV sales in 2022 from IEA, not 18.3

They've got 6.5 for 2021 in actual sales, 3 for 2020, 2.2 in 2019, 2.1 in 2018, 1.1 in 2017, 0.7 in 2016


It looks like you pulled your chart from here:

Trends in electric light-duty vehicles – Global EV Outlook 2023 – Analysis - IEA

Global EV Outlook 2023 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

Which definitely seems like it's a cumulative total?
"Over 26 million electric cars were on the road in 2022"
(they're including PHEVs as electric in that 26m)

 

[NicoV]

But that doesn't explain the decrease in Q2 and Q3, does it? M3 is just Q4.

I remember an article (or tweet, I don’t remember) stating that fleet buyers got an offer to order a 600+km Model 3 months before Highland became officially available. That may have been the start of the decrease.

 

[Tim S]

One more spot to go for MY to become the most registered vehicle in the US for a quarter. In Q3, MY surpassed the Toyota RAV4 to become the second most registered vehicle in the US.

View attachment 997670

Source: https://www.kbb.com/car-news/tesla-model-y-jumps-to-2nd-in-new-vehicle-registrations/

That's for the whole year through September, not just the 3rd quarter.

"But through the first nine months of 2023, a surprising rival took second. The Tesla Model Y narrowly won the silver."

 

[navguy12]

Same as their showing of solar 'shingles' to be used as solar roofs. idle to non-existent

Not sure if serious and define 'seriously' - I think that Tesla should kick their assess big time.

Wipers, IMO, have a inherited problem that the main camera seems to be used to determine their reaction. This camera gets less that 20% of crud that need to be wiped off the front windshield. Current version might work in CA but it does not when people drive in rain, snow and mud. Many folks ain't happy with the 'auto' wipers. Even the simple rain mode is not optimal 50% of the time.

One other observation with those auto wipers (mine wipe when it’s cloudy, no precipitation at all): my windscreen is going into its sixth winter and has a patina of fine sandblast pits that IMO is tricking the system to think there is moisture on the windscreen that needs to be dealt with (only when cloudy).

 

[JusRelax]

That's for the whole year through September, not just the 3rd quarter.

"But through the first nine months of 2023, a surprising rival took second. The Tesla Model Y narrowly won the silver."

Thank you for the correction, I've updated my post to reflect this.

 

[navguy12]

Especially in the 11.4.7/8 FSD stack, with Tesla's newer wiper coding, the wipers rarely work in the pouring rain, but will dry wipe. The algorithm to sense rain is terrible. Tesla Service says they get "a ton of complaints per month", but it's a fleet wide issue that will be fixed in a future update.

I posted on FB an overcast day where my wipers started going crazy, degraded my maximum speed to 60 mph in a 70 mph, then when it started actually raining, they stopped and my speed was increased.

The wipers were fine...not as good as normal cars with rain sensors, but fine, for me and seemingly many, prior to the newer updates. Auto is unusable for any of my Teslas (all on 11.4.8.1 now). I have to change to manual when it rains.

It's the same complaint people have with USS. Tesla tries to do everything with vision, which is more cost effective, but there are areas where Tesla really struggles and it negatively impacts uses.

This mirrors my auto wiper situation; currently I keep them “off” and then use manual modes when actual precipitation is occurring.

Any use of any ADAS feature while the sun is above the horizon and it is overcast creates a situation where the wipers begin to dry wipe.

Since ADAS use locks out wiper “off”, I minimize the use of the ADAS while driving in the city with overcast skies.

May 2018 build TM3 with HW 3.0.

 

[Usain]

Here is my last update on the three early access Cybertruck reviews. I forgot to do the update yesterday, so there is a row missing from the chart.

This is views of each video in millions. If you have missed watching any of them, I recommend all three. But especially don't miss Hagerty. Just click the links in the headers.

Date	Top Gear	Hagerty	Marques Brownlee
12/3/2023	2.0	2.8	9.7
12/4/2023	2.4	3.3	12.0
12/5/2023	2.8	3.7	14.0
12/6/2023	3.1	4.0	15.0
12/8/2023	3.5	4.3	17.0

Between the three, we now have almost 25 million total views. This is magnificent free advertising that other automakers could only dream of.

And now, Marques Brownlee's Cybertruck video has cracked his all-time top 5. It is tied with a video from six months ago and the Cybertruck video has only been out there 7 days.

Here are his top 5:

1. Retro Tech: Game Boy - 39M views - 4 years ago
2. Samsung Galaxy Fold Unboxing: Magnets - 23M views - 4 years ago
3. OnePlus 5 Review: Right On the Money! - 21M views - 5 years ago
4. Apple iPhone X Unboxing! - 18M views - 6 years ago
5. Apple Vision Pro Impressions! - 17M views - 6 months ago

(tie) 5. Driving Tesla Cybertruck: Everything You Need to Know! - 17M views - 7 days ago!!!

 

[uscbucsfan]

This mirrors my auto wiper situation; currently I keep them “off” and then use manual modes when actual precipitation is occurring.

Any use of any ADAS feature while the sun is above the horizon and it is overcast creates a situation where the wipers begin to dry wipe.

Since ADAS use locks out wiper “off”, I minimize the use of the ADAS while driving in the city with overcast skies.

May 2018 build TM3 with HW 3.0.

There are numerous posts about it as well.

Luckily, my 22 MS defaults to "Off" on ADAS, which is obviously a bug, but a welcome one.

 

[Usain]

And now we have a video interview combining all three in a discussion. Haven't watched it yet, but I'll get to it soon.

 

[Singuy]

The scene with the crashing Teslas is up on X via Netflix handle. Elon is endorsing it so...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1733198067862507651

 

[GOVA]

So this new Christmas release parky visual thing. Does it bring back auto park or is it just a nicer GUI? Facebook groups seem split. Anyone in the know?

So you/they call full 3D environment interpolation from car cameras a "nicer GUI"?

 

[Todd Burch]

Yeah, we'll know better in a couple weeks if the Christmas 2023 software update improves the situation with it's "3-D model" capability:

Xiuming Zhang on X: "While you park, we 3D reconstruct. Happy holidays" /X

https://twitter.com/x/status/1732991139018609007

Happy Holidays!

Something interesting I didn't notice in that screenshot before:

Those are not 3D car models. Notice the layering, or striation--like limestone layers, as you move vertically up the car. This appears to be using some new approach we haven't seen before--or perhaps a much more refined version of the volumetric space-filling algorithms Tesla's been using for FSD?

 

[Todd Burch]

This is @Troy 's interpretation, but the numbers are real:
View attachment 997629
Source:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1733007854548705524

Q3: Reduced due to switchover to Highland
Q4: Reduced due to backlog in China as a result of switchover from Highland.

Don't know if any of this is accurate...point is that Troy's post is just one interpretation. He's makes it sound like there's a simple explanation, and he knows what it is.

It's not like the sensors were just removed in January. It's not like interest rates skyrocketed this year or anything...