Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

The same way a child does. By watching people interact with eggs. FA and FO, if you will.

Just like the FSD stack. Vision training NN.

I'm gonna challenge here. I do wonder if there isn't some way to add on existing basic NNs so it doesn't need to figure everything out. Material science is a prime example, a constant in most cases. And the way that NNs are connecting up today with mixed modal (txt/audio/video/pics), I see physics and the sciences as just another NN (or even just a database) that is referenced as needed.

Facts are Facts.
Tasks are a Method with Facts.

Two separate parts of my brain, and I would much prefer that the memory part was enhanced a little.

 

[wtlloyd]

Time for second breakfast?
Here ya go, courtesy of Joe Tegtmeyer @ that place...

 

[AndrewZ]

I hope they can get to a point where it can walk without being in a slight crouch. It seems like all biped robots currently have to do that...

If it's all neural nets and training by watching, it begs asking who the heck is walking like that and why they're being used as the reference



...right?

 

[FastEddieB]

They desperately need to come up with a better term than “recall” for this sort of OTA update.

Might I suggest something like “Mandatory System (or Software) Update”? Acronym: MSU?

On another forum, someone suggested “Patch”. I like it.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

OK, what's it mean when @The Accountant likes it when I'm buying?
That's Bullish by itself, right?

Spoiler: Fun killer

No, it means he doesn't use TA for entry and exit points.

 

[tracksyde]

If it's all neural nets and training by watching, it begs asking who the heck is walking like that and why they're being used as the reference



...right?

Lifted from the s/robotics subreddit, but seems to make sense:

Bent knees allow good shock absorption and fast contraction or elongation of the leg to deal with unexpected balance problems. Humans behave similarly in high performance activities, e.g. skiing, snowboarding, etc.

 

[AndrewZ]

Lifted from the s/robotics subreddit, but seems to make sense:

Definitely this is reasonable, forgot I use the same stance poaching an egg while heading down a double black diamond slope

 

[scaesare]

Is there some kind of proof what Optimus is doing there isn't hard-coded?

Otherwise not sure why we're giving the benefit of a doubt knowing how the early FSD Demo videos were put together and why that strategy would be different for Optimus

Specifically, no, but when you put together this tweet from 3 months ago:

And then note that in the tweet with the video touting its progress it says:

Given they were using video-based NN training in previous iterations, and it's improved since then, it seems to indicate that's not hard-coded movement. I suspect even the dancing is not...

 

[Usain]

Please help me understand. The Boston Dynamics robots that did that amazing coordinated dance and the one that does backflip seems more capable - for the untrained eyes - than Tesla's Optimus. What am I missing?

What are you missing? You are missing a brain.

Oh, I didn't mean you. Sorry how that sounded, bro.

I just meant Optimus has a better brain. And better hands. And it has a more human form making it capable of more tasks in a human world.

 

[AndrewZ]

Specifically, no, but when you put together this tweet from 3 months ago:

View attachment 999010

And then note that in the tweet with the video touting its progress it says:

View attachment 999011

Given they were using video-based NN training in previous iterations, and it's improved since then, it sems to indicate that's not hard-coded movement. I suspect even the dancing is not...

Dancing does appear to be solved, now we begin the Waltz of 9s

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Elon said he will treat Bezos fairly when delivering Kuyper to orbit. So by fair I hope he means a 10% hike in price per hit piece in the WaPo.

I seem to remember Jeff was butt hurt enough about Blue Origin losing a bid to SpaceX that he tried to sue. Now they are turning to SpaceX to launch their own satellite? Can someone help me wrap my mind around that?

 

[scaesare]

If it's all neural nets and training by watching, it begs asking who the heck is walking like that and why they're being used as the reference



...right?

Well, I expect it implements what it "sees" in its training the best it can within the hardware capabilities. I suspect the leg design and/or balance sensors and algorithms have room for improvement.

 

[FastEddieB]

Dancing does appear to be solved, now we begin the Waltz of 9s

I think the equivalent of a Turing Test will be when we see a Teslabot compete on Dancing With The Stars!

 

[scaesare]

I seem to remember Jeff was butt hurt enough about Blue Origin losing a bid to SpaceX that he tried to sue. Now they are turning to SpaceX to launch their own satellite? Can someone help me wrap my mind around that?

Some discussion in the SpaceX subforum here:

SpaceX Launch/Satellite Contracts

Amazon orders 3 Falcon flights for Kuiper Amazon secures 3 launches with SpaceX to support Project Kuiper deployment

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[AndrewZ]

I think the equivalent of a Turing Test will be when we see a Teslabot compete on Dancing With The Stars!

The big moment will be when someone comes out on stage and dances up a storm wearing an Optimus costume before taking off the costume to reveal Optimus underneath

 

[mongo]

Yup, and the leasing market, if I understand the IRA rules correctly? Or is that just for income limits, not bty/materials sourcing?

Indeed!
Qualified Commercial Clean Vehicle Credit (purchase to then lease) is much more permissive than the Clean Vehicle Credit (purchase for personal use).

 

[SOULPEDL]

Spoiler: Fun killer

No, it means he doesn't use TA for entry and exit points.

Cool, neither do I.
(Edit: Although, I did come up with the Bandit Bands this week with that straight line.)

 

[Usain]

I just can't get over the fast progress of Optimus and how it seems nobody else is even really trying to do a serious humanoid robot. This is Elon's greatest project. It's more brilliant than his EVs or reusable rockets.

As soon as Optimus proves it can do useful work, it's all over. Elon and us shareholders will own the world. It's the greatest chess move since Beth Harmon beat Vasily Borgov.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I just can't get over the fast progress of Optimus and how it seems nobody else is even really trying to do a serious humanoid robot. This is Elon's greatest project. It's more brilliant than working on EV's or reusable rockets.

As soon as Optimus proves it can do useful work, it's all over. Elon and us shareholders will own the world. It's the greatest chess move since Beth Harmon beat Vasily Borgov.

Dude, I'm sold! Totally get it.

 

[2daMoon]

I seem to remember Jeff was butt hurt enough about Blue Origin losing a bid to SpaceX that he tried to sue. Now they are turning to SpaceX to launch their own satellite? Can someone help me wrap my mind around that?

Blue Origin board put business before Jeff's emotions after other launch options fell through.