Amazon orders 3 Falcon flights for Kuiper
Amazon secures 3 launches with SpaceX to support Project Kuiper deployment
Amazon secures 3 launches with SpaceX to support Project Kuiper deployment
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Shareholder lawsuit + FCC sat in orbit requirements = use the high volume provider?
To lay a foundation here, it’s basically been a foregone conclusion for some time now that Kuiper will miss their deployment window. At least for folks that are privy to the way these things work, it's also been a foregone calculation that—save for Kuiper completely canning or massively reworking the project—Kuiper will get an extension when they fall short of their obligation.
With that, I think Kuiper is playing at:
All in all, it's actually a really strong move by Amazon. Well played.
With that, I think Kuiper is playing at:
- Timely lift capacity: Bit obvious this, but getting mass up when they need it up is beneficial. It's also worth noting that they would certainly have some kind of performance clause in their other launch contracts. Its almost certain they can cite those clauses and reduce capacity there in favor of this added SX capacity, so its hard to imagine the $200M or whatever they're going to pay SX ends up as a Stupid Tax. Likely, it's even going to save them a couple bucks. (Probably not a lot)
- Show of good faith to meeting their window: "Look, we really tried, even going to our competitor for launch capacity" is a good story to show that they really are making every effort to satisfy their obligation. (Almost always in cases where windows get extended, launcher performance is a major element.)
- Placing some Kuiper deployment responsibility on SX: This one is pretty clever--this agreement basically strong-arms SX into playing hyper fair. Kuiper will be able to leverage any SX shenanigans as a reason why they didn't meet their deployment obligation
- Another litigation avenue against SX: You can guarantee Kuiper's lawyers are chomping at the bit for any opening, whether its breach, anti-trust, or whatever else they can conjure up. Regardless who's right and who's wrong, it's hard to imagine that SX walks away properly winning from any litigation.
- Minimal PR downside: At least in so far as PR actually influencing the way companies are run and the way they make money, there's really no Kuiper downside going to SX, nor is there an SX upside in Kuiper going to SX. If you're a potential Kuiper customer, you could care less who lifted the constellation. If you're a SX customer, you already know you're going to the most reliable LSP and Kuiper also going there won't make a bit of difference.
- Pressure on ULA/Blue/Ariane: Kuiper has always said they'd consider SX if they needed them; this is a shot across the bow to those LSPs that they're willing to walk the walk.
All in all, it's actually a really strong move by Amazon. Well played.
Given SpaceX's consistent reliability and launch cadence, I just can't see an argument here. Amazon will provide satellites and SpaceX will launch them just like every other thing it has launched. If anything goes wrong, I think the world will point the finger at Amazon. After all, everyone else got into orbit with SpaceX.
I would think that this is the absolute worst time to approach SpaceX, given Elon's current public standing. But I agree that customers of satellite internet won't know and won't care how it all came together.
Yep. Just a reminder that Amazon and SpaceX are not competitors. Jeff may lead the board of directors, but he owns less than 10% of the company. He's not the embodiment of Amazon anymore.
It may be a shot across the bow, but it's not going to change anything. Those organizations move slowly because that's their culture, and this won't do much beyond elevating some stomach acid levels.
I'm guessing, but I wouldn't be surprised if Amazon was formally notified by one or more of the launch providers that they would not meet their launch obligations for 2024. That freed Amazon up to order some launches from SpaceX. The bottom line is the "timely lift capacity", and Amazon wants to get those satellites up. I'm sure this won't hurt their shareholder relations either.
Just to be clear, the reference to SX "shenanigans" should not be conflated with legitimate launch anomalies. SX has been known for the former, and for sure Kuiper's lawyers are watching for any sign of unprofessional conduct.
But also, if in the very unlikely case there's a launch anomaly with SX (regardless if its a Kuiper launch or one that delays Kuiper launches), that gives Kuiper a credible story to say "look we tried to deploy on time but we had launcher delays".
Either way, really strong move by Amazon.
The Kuiper constellation is 3,236 satellites. They have to get half up by July 2026. A Falcon 9 can loft 28 at a time. That's 58 launches for half the constellation. If SpaceX dedicated all Falcon 9 flights to Kuiper, they could get them up in 9 months, easy.
A 100-ton payload Starship could launch 153 at a time. That's 11 launches. I say Amazon should just wait until June 2026 and have SpaceX launch the constellation then.
I started on all this because I was wondering what SpaceX would do if Amazon approached them today and said "We're going to cancel our contracts, pay the penalties, and go with you." I wonder how that would play out. What would SpaceX say in response? Would they defer Starlink launches to put Kuiper up, or would they assume that they could use Starship to loft Starlink and use Falcon 9 for everyone else?
A 100-ton payload Starship could launch 153 at a time. That's 11 launches. I say Amazon should just wait until June 2026 and have SpaceX launch the constellation then.
I started on all this because I was wondering what SpaceX would do if Amazon approached them today and said "We're going to cancel our contracts, pay the penalties, and go with you." I wonder how that would play out. What would SpaceX say in response? Would they defer Starlink launches to put Kuiper up, or would they assume that they could use Starship to loft Starlink and use Falcon 9 for everyone else?
And just a reminder to myself that they are. I was thinking that SpaceX's competition is with Blue Origin as a rocket company, but SpaceX certainly will also compete with Amazon as a satellite internet provider.
What SX "shenanigans" are you referring to?
Whilst Jeffrey may only own a minority stake in Amazon at this point, I suspect he still carries some significant sway there... and his apparent animosity towards Musk seems likely to have played in to Amazon NOT using SpaceX until his hand has been forced.
The Kuiper constellation is 3,236 satellites. They have to get half up by July 2026. A Falcon 9 can loft 28 at a time. That's 58 launches for half the constellation. If SpaceX dedicated all Falcon 9 flights to Kuiper, they could get them up in 9 months, easy.
A 100-ton payload Starship could launch 153 at a time. That's 11 launches. I say Amazon should just wait until June 2026 and have SpaceX launch the constellation then.
I started on all this because I was wondering what SpaceX would do if Amazon approached them today and said "We're going to cancel our contracts, pay the penalties, and go with you." I wonder how that would play out. What would SpaceX say in response? Would they defer Starlink launches to put Kuiper up, or would they assume that they could use Starship to loft Starlink and use Falcon 9 for everyone else?
Heck SpaceX is looking to launch 144 times in 2024.. an average of every 2.5 days. Will likely be a ramp to get to that rate but if they average 3 in the first half of the year, they could do it in closer to 6 months...
I am also waiting with bated breadth to get a list of SpaceX shenanigans. I can't hold my breadth for too long though
Some press take on Amazon acquiescing to buy launches from SpaceX:
Amazon is swallowing its pride to ensure its internet satellites get to orbit on time
A bitter pill: Amazon calls on rival SpaceX to launch Internet satellites
It seems like this is being seen as Amazon having to capitulate a bit...
Amazon is swallowing its pride to ensure its internet satellites get to orbit on time
A bitter pill: Amazon calls on rival SpaceX to launch Internet satellites
It seems like this is being seen as Amazon having to capitulate a bit...
Capella to use SpaceX for two Acadia satellite launches
Capella Space will launch two radar imaging satellites on SpaceX rideshare missions after an Electron launch failure disrupted its deployment plans.
spacenews.com
Capella to use SpaceX for two Acadia satellite launches
Capella Space will launch two radar imaging satellites on SpaceX rideshare missions after an Electron launch failure disrupted its deployment plans.
Capella has been bullish on paying extra for dedicated rides on Electron as of late, but it seems as though the Electron failure a few months ago has caused them to consider diversifying their launch fleet.
It’s official: Europe turns to the Falcon 9 to launch its navigation satellites
The European Union agreed to pay a 30 percent premium for Falcon 9 launches.
arstechnica.com
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