Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[y_naught]

Hmmm...my res is RN11286xxx not that far off.
I better start planning!

Yeah, I’m 112846xxx, but there are 9 digits. So, the 11274xxxx is at least 101,000 ahead of me, and depending on where your presumed typo is, more for you. But, I believe only 20-30% of those original orders will fill ahead of me, for whatever reason (multiple orders, changed mind, couldn’t wait, cost) and I’ll take delivery second half to end of next year.

 

[Max Plaid]

I have, but only with Model X equipped with the former technology, which allowed near-centimeter (actually showed the measures on the screen) precision in pre-horseless carriage central cities like Bergamo Alta, and so many others. Of course, those all are places prohibited to non-EV vehicles.

One changing to pure vision, thus far, I have not been in tight locations with my Tesla Model S. With equal precision and accuracy I'm sure vision is simpler and cheaper. I understand the frustration of those of us who regularly need that precision and accuracy.

I do not understand those who ridicule people who need that capability to park in very restricted areas, which abound in much fo the world, and are ubiquitous in most of Europe. Even in 'modern' places like Rio de Janeiro there are numerous areas with roads built and developed in the 18th century, and some even older. Those are invariably Narrow, Congested and populated by too-large delivery vehicles. These conditions are the norm in many places.

Prior to really good sensors such places were only convenient for tiny vehicles. Post sensors, many larger ones occupy these locations and exacerbate the congestion.

In my opinion, critics of driver technique are missing the entire point, which is that the tighter the navigation needed the more precise and accurate the sensors must be. That is fact.

In my decades of living in and driving in European central city conditions I have never imagined the ease that came with high quality sensors. I still remember having my passenger leave the vehicle for guide when driving in my village of Saint-Paul-de-Vence. The sensors eliminated that need.

Tesla is nearing the level that allows both precision and accuracy once again. We all should be pleased about that, assuming it finally is true.

Aside the fact that Teslas are big cars by European standards*, Tesla still insist on using rims and tyre profies that invite kerb-rash at the merest opportunity. Pre-Tesla it was normal for me, when parking, to allow the tyre to bump the kerb when parking, Iearned early on, to my cost, that this isn't an option with Teslas, especially the Onyx rims I had on my first MX - they got damaged just looking at the aggressive kerbs we have here, and let's not talk about my wife's M3P rims...

*pre-Tesla I drove a Volvo XC90, which was a huge car by my standards, but was dwarfed by my first Model S. These days, when I park my X next to a Model S, the S looks like a dinky toy... nevertheless, after 1 year of ownership, I have zero damaga on my Plaid, not a scratch, both the 22" summer and 20" wnter wheels still like new, but I'm very, very careful indeed! And to be fair, I have one of the very last cars produced with USS

Here's a typical charging/parking space that we find in Brussels, yes that is a big iron bar in the front and the adervisting sign at the back is encroaching into the parking area, plus you can see I'm fairly tight to the (fairly low) kerb, nevertheless, the car is some 6 inches into the road on the other side...

And no, I haven't been off-roading, we have a 400m dirt-track leading to our house and it has been raining for the last 2 months almost non-stop

 

[Max Plaid]

Plenty of us have driven big vehicles in tight areas on this side of the ocean without bells and whistles to aid. Our truckers regularly drive their big rigs and maneuver in impossibly tight quarters.

Driver education back in my day could be taken in school at age 16, though most of us already knew how to drive long before that. Anyway, back in the day there were no cameras and other hoopla on vehicles. Driver’s education included knowing and understanding where the ‘corners of the car were’ and so on -

Point being, if you couldn’t comfortably move about nor park your vehicle in a tight setting without assistance, you didn’t pass go and you didn’t get your license.

I'm sure most folks can drive without senors, but they're ubiquitous now and expected, especially in high-end cars. Tesla should have best-in-class parking sensors, but they don't. For sure the vision system they've so far implemented is all very clever, but a bit of rain and it's useless. So much for first-priciples thinking - humans can't see with water in their eyes either, but we can blink clear it, no such capability on Tesla cameras

I have to admit that I find the denial on this matter and the condescenscion towards those that call it out quite baffling

 

[UrsS]

Plenty of us have driven big vehicles in tight areas on this side of the ocean without bells and whistles to aid. Our truckers regularly drive their big rigs and maneuver in impossibly tight quarters.

Driver education back in my day could be taken in school at age 16, though most of us already knew how to drive long before that. Anyway, back in the day there were no cameras and other hoopla on vehicles. Driver’s education included knowing and understanding where the ‘corners of the car were’ and so on -

Point being, if you couldn’t comfortably move about nor park your vehicle in a tight setting without assistance, you didn’t pass go and you didn’t get your license.

It is one thing to maneuver into a tight parking spot once in a great while. It is something entirely different driving on a very narrow road into a city with even narrower streets and impossibly narrow parking spots.

 

[Knightshade]

The new Tesla vision park assist appears to be getting quite a bit of praise. Time will tell of course.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1735818184706646382

Most of the comments on the twitter link posted earlier about it from those who got it seem instead to be suggesting- "Looks really cool. Has not actually improved the poor distance estimates at all, which matters a lot more when parking than looking cool"

Other interesting bit is (so far anyway) it's only going to those without USS (presumably because if the distance comments are accurate it'd be fundamentally worse for those owners to move to this system)

So vision still not at parity with the old hardware... (see also AP/FSD max speed remains lower than the old radar-enabled top speed even years into the vision transition)

 

[CatB]

It is one thing to maneuver into a tight parking spot once in a great while. It is something entirely different driving on a very narrow road into a city with even narrower streets and impossibly narrow parking spots.

And a third thing is availability of viable spaces goes down very quickly when your car is "too big for the norm"
I see this problem in US Eastern cities, so you don't even need to travel to Europe to appreciate this issue, imho, smh...

 

[Mengy]

Most of the comments on the twitter link posted earlier about it from those who got it seem instead to be suggesting- "Looks really cool. Has not actually improved the poor distance estimates at all, which matters a lot more when parking than looking cool"

Other interesting bit is (so far anyway) it's only going to those without USS (presumably because if the distance comments are accurate it'd be fundamentally worse for those owners to move to this system)

So vision still not at parity with the old hardware... (see also AP/FSD max speed remains lower than the old radar-enabled top speed even years into the vision transition)

I'm glad I have USS on my 2021 MY, they work great. I'd love for Tesla to have a 360° bird's eye view like many other cars have today, but for some reason Tesla seems determined to not do that, even though I'm sure the eight cameras could easily allow it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Day 04: Four calling birds | Model Y made at 4 factories​

Part of 12 Days of Christmas - Tesla Edition a series (c) by the Artful Dodger, Dec 2023

Over this Yuletide season, I will post a daily installment focusing on Tesla products, past, present, and future (please note that I will express major themes as short-hand bullet points, or I will run out of Yule before the tide goes out). Here's the series so far:

Day 01: A Partridge in a Pear Tree | Roadster Proof of Concept
Day 02: 2 Turtle Doves | S/X Fraternal Twins go Mainstream
Day 03: 3 French Hens | Model 3 Bets the Company

Intro to Part 4: Model Y made at 4 factories
Model Y was intended to become the first car manufactured at Tesla factories around the world. Thus, it needed to have mass market appeal, great value, good manufacturability, and parts commonality.

The Early Model Y: Fremont, California

• Initally, Elon wanted Model Y to be built on an entirely new platform, but wiser heads prevailed at Tesla's Board and the decision was made to share the now proven Model 3 platform with 75% parts in common (esp. the motors, power electronics, software, and interior fitments)
• this wise decision allowed Tesla to begin deliveries of Model Y cars built at the Fremont factory a full 6 months earlier than was expected after the (low-key) reveal event held on Mar 19, 2019
• the big leap forward in manufacturing tech for Model Y was the "gigacasting" where the entire rear frame was produced in a single shot in a 'house-sized' casting machine (gigapress), replacing the 170-odd pieces of welded stamped steel which had vexed the Model 3 ramp, and amused Sandy Munro.

Lesson 1: Build for Manufacturability, Build from Common components
Lesson 2: Very large CapEx spend can be economical if a product in build in volume

Three More Factories: Shanghai Phase II, Giga Berlin, and Giga Texas

1. Giga Shanghai: "Tesla Speed"

• the Model 3 plant (Phase 1) was at 250K/yr installed capacity by the time the decision was made to expand the factory to build Model Y in China. In amateur drone footage, we witnessed the project rise from an empty space to a fully built factory in less than a year (and then double again the next year)
• Concurrent with the construction of the new factory, localized parts suppliers were adding or creating capacity for the new product, located mostly within 30 miles of Giga Shanghai (Lingang). This led to Tesla achieving over 90% parts localization, with enormous benefits in logistics and COGS
• Great credit should be given to the Tesla China team who worked through two massive disruptions during the pandemic. Inflexible policies were met with agile management and a willing workforce, so that Tesla not only continued production, but they massively outperformed their competitors. Kudos. Profits.

Lesson 3: Go Big, or Go Home

2. Giga Berlin: "Water is for Fighting"

• Wasser, wasser everywhere, and not a drop to drink: faux enviromental lobby groups (bankrolled by the German car industry) made the decision early on to attempt to delay the construction of the Tesla factory in Brandenberg
• Lawsuits, public herrings, and do-overs were the agenda for years, but inevitably Giga Berlin rose to completion and production began with 2170 battery cells imported from China resulting in 2-shifts, 6-days/wk and 375K/yr nameplate production capacity for Model Y (Model 3 would continue to be imported from China)
• During this time, Tesla withdrew its application for $1B Euro in funding to build a battery cell plant at Giga Berlin over non-sensical a priori requirements that the battery plant be "the 1st industrial instantiation of that technology". Which is it, Berlin? R&D or Volume? You can't have both; now you got neither (other battery production projects slated for Germany have also been cancelled). Red tape == Delays. Batteries used at Giga Berlin are imported from China (both LG 2170 cells and LFP battery packs)
• a 2nd GA line was planned, construction and tooling was largely completed by H2 2023 when Tesla decided to defer the project. This next part is speculation, but I think a combination of Labor policies, Union and lobbist activities, and market conditions (high inflation and a European conflict) lead to the decision to proceed prudently (bot there's more to come)
• It is still my hope that finished-but-unused space inside Giga Berlin Assembly Bldg 1 will be used to accelerate the Gen 3 production schedule (Tesla has applied for German permits for a 2nd Assembly Bldg, which is likely years away given the German approvals process)

Lesson 4: Go Big, or Go Home. Again.

3. Giga Texas: "Tom Swift and his Triphibian Atomicar"

• Elon reads voraciously, has every since he was a boy. If you didn't grow up reading the Tom Swift books by Victor Appleton, then you will never understand why both the fictional Swift Industries campus in New Mexico and Giga Texas both sit on 4 sq miles of land...
• Model Y was always intended to be the 1st product built at Giga Texas, with a structural battery pack featuring 4680 cells, according to original plans
• Due to challenges in the supply chain (sourcing/permitting of battery materials), the decision was made to take an extra year to perfect 4680 cell production technology (starting with calendaring of the dry electrode slurry), and to synchronize the ramp of 4680 production with Cybertruck
• This meant that Texas Model Y would need to be produced w. Panasonic 2170 cells (Tesla already had ample experience) and/or with imported Korean 2170s or LFP battery packs. This story continues to evolve due to late announcements in U.S. IRA implementation (Treasury/IRS/KAOS)

Lesson 5: Max-Flex.

Overall, Tesla became enormously profitable during the pandemic and subsequent supply shortage. By late 2021, TLSA Market Cap had soared to over $1T. Given this boost, Elon surpassed the Market Cap increments needed to earn all 12 tranches of his 2018 CEO Compensation plan (as approved by TSLA Shareholders vote).

This rise also meant the accounts of even relatively-late TSLA investors were propelled to giddy new heights (gains from 20x to 35x even w/o using leverage). This deeply offended Wall St hedge funds, as we would see later.

Conclusion: Model Y became the best selling car in the world by revenue in 2022, and by volume in 2023, besting the Toyota Corolla (on Elon-time). Not only was Model Y a better car than its competitors, but it was a better value than many cars half its price. After a teardown, Toyota Executives called it 'a work of art'. Thus, Model Y became the gold standard for EVs, and sold like ice cream on the Forth of July.

Next: Displacing the logistics juggernaut: Road-going (Class 8) diesel trucks

Tomorrow's Topic:
Day 05: Five golden rings | Semi Breaks Physiks

 

[navguy12]

I wonder if there will be an opportunity for Tesla (Canada) to make money by selling clean car credits.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/electric-vehicle-ev-guilbeault-1.7061381

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm glad I have USS on my 2021 MY, they work great. I'd love for Tesla to have a 360° bird's eye view like many other cars have today, but for some reason Tesla seems determined to not do that, even though I'm sure the eight cameras could easily allow it.

It's Patented IP:

Bird's eye view: patent encumbered? : r/Rivian - Reddit

 

[Krugerrand]

That is what I recall too. However, back then many cars had better all around visibility (with the trade off that a rollover killed everyone in the car almost all the time due to no substantial roll over protection.

Valid point, however, (I won’t continue the conversation).

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm sure most folks can drive without senors, but they're ubiquitous now and expected, especially in high-end cars. Tesla should have best-in-class parking sensors, but they don't. For sure the vision system they've so far implemented is all very clever, but a bit of rain and it's useless. So much for first-priciples thinking - humans can't see with water in their eyes either, but we can blink clear it, no such capability on Tesla cameras

I have to admit that I find the denial on this matter and the condescenscion towards those that call it out quite baffling

No idea why expecting people to be worse drivers is considered something to strive for. And no these driver aids are not ubiquitous.

I find the defense of the inability to drive and park well (not hit anything or anybody nor curb the tires) a vehicle without these aids and thus perpetuating dumbing down a skill set where people can die - interesting at best. If you’re taking that personal, well, that’s on you not me.

 

[geometro]

I still want my 500 mile CT! (W/o range extender)

 

[SOULPEDL]

I still want my 500 mile CT! (W/o range extender)

By the time our numbers come up, maybe it will have 420 mi. - good enough!

 

[wtlloyd]

Not pure profit, but FSD is the main expense, and even though a lot of people ordered when it was $7k, I would argue most didn't. Also, FSD is almost all pure profit. The other stuff they're throwing in won't cost Tesla more than $1,000, $2,000 at the most. So I'd argue it IS mostly profit.

But if it helps you rationalize ordering an early one, I'll agree lol! I know I did!!

Accessories have ramp costs too. The $20K has more to do with adressing limited take, forces inventory movement. Pretty smart, from that aspect.

 

[cliff harris]

Oh we are back in 'anyone who uses parking sensors cant drive' level of discourse again I see.
That must be why every new car on earth installs them then? maybe we are all useless drivers except the chosen few on this thread?

 

[Skryll]

Oh we are back in 'anyone who uses parking sensors cant drive' level of discourse again I see.
That must be why every new car on earth installs them then?

and don't get me started on this seat belt fad

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm not saying its BOT... but its BOT.

Tesla’s Billion-Dollar Bot Business w/ Cern Basher | Brighter with Herbert (Dec 16, 2923)

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Whoever restarted this discussion of ultra sonic sensors and who can and cannot drive deserves a swift kick in the rear.

 

[Knightshade]

I'm glad I have USS on my 2021 MY, they work great. I'd love for Tesla to have a 360° bird's eye view like many other cars have today, but for some reason Tesla seems determined to not do that, even though I'm sure the eight cameras could easily allow it.

Most of the 8 cameras don't face downward nearly enough to do this... the cars that do offer this generally have one or more fisheye lens cameras very low on the bumpers/fenders to provide this view. Teslas in contrast have a fairly large blind spot below the hood-line everywhere in front of the rear-facing side cameras... (well with the exception of the Cybertruck I guess which has a low forward camera assumed to be for off-roading purposes)