Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Can anyone with shipping expertise speak to how/if this will become problematic for Tesla next quarter:

No long term effect at all. Once this el Nino drought is over, rain patterns will normalize.



The Panama canal authority could always just install supplemental water pumps to refill the older locks as needed, at the cost of increased energy use. But there's wind and solar aplenty.

The recently-built (post-Panamax) locks already are built with water scavenging and reuse in mind (requiring pumping). Paging @mongo

 

[Featsbeyond50]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1738220696466247698

Bullish for DOJO if you have FOMO. Not a poem, it just rhymes.

I have questions but don't want to tip off how poor my understanding is of options.

 

[unk45]

Out of curiosity, and maybe you answered that before, why didn’t you get a grey import Model 3 here? Seems to be a at least decent support background here, with at least one shop and the big importers flying Tesla techs here if needed

Price seems compelling give the other EVs available officially

Basically it was based on the price and relative merits of local support vs the cheaper and decent XC40-Recharge. I’ve had a few grey market cars, digression to list but none in Brasil, and lack of OEM support has been frustrating.

 

[Artful Dodger]

♫ You load 16 tons, what'd you get? ♫
[insert MM jibe here]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1738274490163876047

 

[Buckminster]

I have questions but don't want to tip off how poor my understanding is of options.

If NVDA goes up 10%, her option will go up ~12.5%. So not very leveraged or risky.

 

[unk45]

A correction is needed here about voting while living abroad -- it's done all the time by U.S. citizens, per:

How to Vote from Abroad: An Overseas Voting Explainer from U.S. Vote Foundation | Overseas Vote

Everything you need to know as a US citizen living abroad and voting from overseas. Vote from abroad with our easy-to-use guides, forms, and election info.

www.usvotefoundation.org

That is misleading. Eligibility is based on local rules, registration is local. For those who apparently do not know, US voting is Not Federal. Perhaps this might help:

Who can and cannot vote | USAGov

Can you vote in federal, state, and local elections? Learn about qualifications such as citizenship, minimum age, registration, and more.

www.usa.gov

so long as one meets local requirements sure. Local requirements nearly all require residency, while all allow US Government employees temporarily abroad to vote. If, and only if, a voter can satisfy residency requirements voting can be done with US Consulate help.

 

[NicoV]

If NVDA goes up 10%, her option will go up ~12.5%. So not very leveraged or risky.

Options so deep in the money are basically just shares that are not entirely paid.

 

[wipster]

I wonder if we'll break the $260 line today? It feels like it's been a while....

See what you did? Never talk about Fight Club...

 

[Drumheller]

If that was the Santa rally, I'm ok not repeating it next year.

 

[navguy12]

No long term effect at all. Once this el Nino drought is over, rain patterns will normalize.



The Panama canal authority could always just install supplemental water pumps to refill the older locks as needed, at the cost of increased energy use. But there's wind and solar aplenty.

The recently-built (post-Panamax) locks already are built with water scavenging and reuse in mind (requiring pumping). Paging @mongo

From the original article:

Armed with over a century of rainfall data, it’s a question that Paton is almost uniquely equipped to answer.

“I certainly am beginning to believe that the patterns we’ve come to know in the last 30 years are no longer a useful guide in helping us predict the future,” he says.

“Historically there has been a [rainfall] shortage on average once every 20 years due to major El Niño events. In the last 26 years this is the third major rainfall deficit. So it seems that something is changing our rainfall patterns.”

But Paton cautions against ascribing the changing patterns completely to the climate crisis.

“The increase in frequency is consistent with climate change models,” he says, “but the climate change models have not come out saying for sure.”

However, statistically what is going on now “has no analogue in the previous 100 years of data,” he adds.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If that was the Santa rally, I'm ok not repeating it next year.

I dunno man, the Holiday's seem pretty green to me... (u wanna do M-7 now?)

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Fred42]

Yes, what did you think of today's work? Pay? 10x what I was getting at my last one.

Good! I hope you mean your investments are getting you 10X the pay when working. Not 10X 0 = 0.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Good! I hope you mean your investments are getting you 10X the pay when working. Not 10X 0 = 0.

Haha, not my peak pay, but 10x my last job at the University. My TSLA holdings are long-term: they could reach the $10M mark during my original planned investment timeframe, or even $100M if both Teslabot & Robotaxi hit. But honestly that's not really life-changing for me. I already do what I want, all-day every-day, and have for over a decade.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[madodel]

That is misleading. Eligibility is based on local rules, registration is local. For those who apparently do not know, US voting is Not Federal. Perhaps this might help:

Who can and cannot vote | USAGov

Can you vote in federal, state, and local elections? Learn about qualifications such as citizenship, minimum age, registration, and more.

www.usa.gov

so long as one meets local requirements sure. Local requirements nearly all require residency, while all allow US Government employees temporarily abroad to vote. If, and only if, a voter can satisfy residency requirements voting can be done with US Consulate help.

You are correct that voter registration is a state function in the US.

Americans can vote. Wherever they are. But almost every state allows someone whose parents lived at some point in a state to register to vote in that state. You would have to have been born and raised outside the United States and the same for your parents to be a US Citizen without domicile in a state. If you ever lived in the US you can register at your last place of residence. You just can't vote in local/state elections unless you tell them you plan to return to the US.

 

[ggr]

Mod: US voting from another country is irrelevant to the vast bulk of our readers, and is perilously close to politics, so... --ggr

 

[loquitur]

All US citizens can vote in federal elections even if out of the country. See: Overseas Citizen Voters State and local elections usually require you to state you plan to return to the US to continue to vote in their elections.

Although I myself am not an overseas voter, I trust the expertise of one who founded an overseas voting project
for U.S. citizens, votefromabroad.org, now morphed into the daily political junkie site electoral-vote.com.

It is run by Prof. Andrew Tannenbaum, known for many books and projects with computer networking
(Aside: his Unix-clone MINIX is actually the most widely-used operating system in the world,
exceeding Windows, Linux, MacOS, etc. by virtue of it being embedded on most every
Intel computer chip -- which Intel kept secret for many years.)

He lives in Amsterdam as a retired professor, but votes in California all the time. To wit, from
Wednesday's edition (scroll down to section "B.S. polling" about "push polls"):

ElectoralVote

Track the election with a red/blue map of the US updated daily using the latest state polls.

www.electoral-vote.com

"One of us, (V), has voted dozens of times in a state (California) where he is no longer a permanent resident, and can assure you it's not a crime, because he doesn't vote in any other state."

So, it at least works for the combination of the Netherlands and California.

[Note added: just saw mod's note -- before this gets whisked off to Off Topic Galore or wherever,
to connect this to Tesla -- the other professor who co-writes electoral-vote.com drives a
non-Tesla EV, but had to cancel publication one day because he got stuck at a non-functional
non-Tesla supercharger site. Stretching; well I tried]

 

[Artful Dodger]

The core technology which powers Tesla real-world AI is the ability to perceive, model, and ultimately to understand the 3-D world which surrounds the AI agent (an AI with 'agency' or the ability to interact with the physical world around it). Thanks, Andrey Karpathy and FSD team.

Not many folks here realize it yet (and ever fewer folks who aren't here), but we can thank the Tesla Optimus bot development effort almost entirely for Tesla's 2023 Christmas gift: Park Assist.

Why? How? Both are powered by Tesla Vision, and both use a special high-precision NN to create a high-res. occupancy network. Cars will use it to park; Optimus will use it at work.

So thanks some more, Tesla AP Team: you guys rock! Enjoy your Holiday, and best wishes for 2024!

Cheers!

 

[inconel]

I AGREE, BUT!
When one is non-resident only the US among major countries (North Korea is another) tax citizens on their worldwide income whether recent or not. When the country of residence has higher taxation, that becomes irrelevant. In my case the relevant capital gains are 15% so it hurts, especially when even consular services are hard to come by since they've eliminated nearly all of them and make Brazilians wait a year or more only to renew a visa. Those circumstances do spawn resentment and dismay. FWIW, even to remove US citizenship citizenship exacts a high tax bill and wait of more than a year. I have no desire to do that, but many people faced with these inequities do exit permanently.

I really am waiting impatiently for Tesla to come to Brazil so my colleagues and I can finally take delivery on our very long reserved Model 3's, since 2016 for several of us. We keep those reservations!

I thought that if you are considered a non-resident (living abroad) you only have to pay federal taxes on capital gains, about 15% for long term gains, no State taxes or Social Security contributions. Where does the 50% figure come from?

 

[unk45]

I thought that if you are considered a non-resident (living abroad) you only have to pay federal taxes on capital gains, about 15% for long term gains, no State taxes or Social Security contributions. Where does the 50% figure come from?

There were such terms years ago. Some years ago the system was revised and there are no longer any reductions for foreign residents. Without a US based employer there aren’t the ancillary taxes, nor do State taxes apply. Further the IRS does allow deduction of foreign income taxes even in places with no tax treaty. OTOH US income and capital gains taxes are higher than those of some other countries, especially those with high VAT and similar taxes.

I don’t know about 50%. For 2023 US taxes I found out today I must pay 22.5% in US capital gains.

Years ago foreign residents had large exemption, I no longer recall what they were. All of those were eliminated, apart from being able to deduct some foreign taxes. Those vary depending on the precise tax definition and tax treaty with US, if one exists.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I had a suspension problem on my 2020 MY, vin 15xxx. 40k miles. Made an appt about a suspension noise and Tesla immediately replaced it that afternoon. Service said it was a known problem and they were fixing them when reported. Have a 2023 MY now and the suspension is dramatically better.

This past March I brought my Model 3 in to service because it was making a squeaking noise in the front. They replaced both front upper control arms. Parts cost was $90 each. Labor was no charge. Given it's a 2017 Model 3 with a bit over 50K miles, long out of warranty, I was surprised there was no charge for labor. But I guess it's a known problem...