Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

I do remember this , but does it make sense for Kato to be just R&D with no production.. or was it more like Tesla keeping things close to the chest?

Austin will have eight 4680 lines by the end of the year. If Tesla needs more, they can copy paste at the factories.
It's better for Kato to do R&D and not need to meet quality/ salability cell requirements. Multiple Kato lines allows testing multiple variations simultaneously.
(IMO)

 

[SmokyPeat]

Minor point, my understanding is that the Model 3 gets zero credit in 2024 due to Chinese components (excluded entity clause), not due to the 10% higher mineral sourcing and component requirements.
Further, Chinese sourced packs only qualified in Q2-Q4 of 2023 (Q1 was a free for all based on old eligibility rules) due to the IRS/ Treasury guidance that allowed doing the percent calculation over a full model line or factory's output instead of per vehicle.
Federal Register :: Request Access

Slight correction/clarification- it's my understanding that the Model 3 Performance will still be eligible for the $7500 rebate in '24.

 

[elasalle]

For anyone with Spotify Premium, the audiobook of Isaacson’s Elon Musk biography is available for free with the service.

Going on for past 6 weeks- has put me to sleep many times

 

[dhanson865]

Kato is the site for next generation development, not production.

Keep in mind that they are doing next generation development all the way to scaling up production. That means they will output usable cells, just not as many or as consistently.

If they have multiple lines they might do trials with each line working a different chemistry and comparing how well production works between them (A/B testing but also getting usable cells in the process).

If they only have one line or otherwise can't mix cell types they could stop/switch/startup to do the A/B testing and still get usable cells in a pulsing fashion.

If they have 3 lines maybe they do 1 line of the most productive and have 2 lines A/B testing.

Just because you say "Kato is the site for next generation development" doesn't mean it won't produce any usable cells.

 

[Krugerrand]

Going on for past 6 weeks- has put me to sleep many times

You probably could have read it faster than driving once around the block for 42 days straight.

Or have you been parked in your garage in romance mode, sipping cognac this whole time? Actually, that sounds like a great way to spend this particular evening ending with an Auld Lang Syne light show.

 

[Sancho]

I said this a couple of months back, everyone here has to read Isaacsson, it really helped me understand Musk.

I just finished Isaacson’s book. I agree it’s a must read even for those of us who already know most of the story.

One thing that particularly struck me was how many of Elon’s extended family members have been employed by one of his many companies. Not only is he extremely close to his family, but he seems to trust them and want them involved in his companies. His own (numerous) children are mostly too young to be involved now, but many seem to be pursuing STEM paths that could make them active participants in the future.

So instead of thinking about Musk, maybe we should be thinking about Musks.

Like “the Kennedys”

But the Kennedys only inherited a recognizable name and some good looks. The Musks are going to inherit not only some amazing genes but also great wealth and ownership interests in the world’s most innovative companies.

Which may mean that rather than us being, say, half way through the Musk Era, we are instead only at the very beginning of the Musks Era.

Happy New Year, and cheers to the longs!

 

[mongo]

Keep in mind that they are doing next generation development all the way to scaling up production. That means they will output usable cells, just not as many or as consistently.

If they have multiple lines they might do trials with each line working a different chemistry and comparing how well production works between them (A/B testing but also getting usable cells in the process).

If they only have one line or otherwise can't mix cell types they could stop/switch/startup to do the A/B testing and still get usable cells in a pulsing fashion.

If they have 3 lines maybe they do 1 line of the most productive and have 2 lines A/B testing.

Just because you say "Kato is the site for next generation development" doesn't mean it won't produce any usable cells.

Yah, as I mentioned in the follow-up post, usable isn't the same as salable. Tesla could make internal testing vehicles with the new cells, but I don't think they would be added to the general public vehicles. Which isn't to say that in a crunch, Kato couldn't take on the additional overhead of making production cells, but Kato isn't planned to revamp to Austin standards.

Expected flow: Kato creates a new process, makes potentially improved cells, tests them, and if they check out, Tesla upgrades existing or installs new production lines and does production validation. I don't see the Kato line being the final form of a production volume optimized manufacturing line. Meanwhile, Kato moves onto the next thing.

 

[growler23]

I would just like to make a small historical perspective note regarding our late-year new arrival, the Cybertruck. Seems clear to me that the world at large has yet to realize the level of innovation here. Thank goodness for the Youtube video views - at least we have those.
This vehicle (it is more than a truck; clearly its own category right now) - with all the revolutionary changes we have discussed here - unveils itself in a landscape of 'automotive excellence' that, per my best recollection, had its last great upgrade in the 1990's with the shocking (/s) "cab forward design".
Anyone else remember that time? The number of commercials, auto rag reviews, NYT editorials about this amazing revolution in the design of cars... because someone widened the wheel base a couple inches and moved the passenger compartment up a couple inches.
Revolutionary, they said! The auto market will never be the same, they wrote! Ink spilled by the truckload! Other automakers must follow, they insisted! So innovative, the market is forever changed!

Compare that to the CT: a new vehicle class that redefines the interior, exterior, propulsion/refueling method, and brings entirely new architectures, efficiencies, capabilities and use cases to bear.... and the mainstream press apparently ... doesn't really notice?

These yahoos will never even know what hit them.

CT TESLA innovation for the win.

 

[Krugerrand]

I just finished Isaacson’s book. I agree it’s a must read even for those of us who already know most of the story.

One thing that particularly struck me was how many of Elon’s extended family members have been employed by one of his many companies. Not only is he extremely close to his family, but he seems to trust them and want them involved in his companies. His own (numerous) children are mostly too young to be involved now, but many seem to be pursuing STEM paths that could make them active participants in the future.

So instead of thinking about Musk, maybe we should be thinking about Musks.

Like “the Kennedys”

But the Kennedys only inherited a recognizable name and some good looks. The Musks are going to inherit not only some amazing genes but also great wealth and ownership interests in the world’s most innovative companies.

Which may mean that rather than us being, say, half way through the Musk Era, we are instead only at the very beginning of the Musks Era.

Happy New Year, and cheers to the longs!

View attachment 1004535

I’m not sure any of his kids are going to inherit. He believes they have to make their own way in life. I suppose if one or more show interest and work their way up, they may indeed get the reins.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I’m not sure any of his kids are going to inherit. He believes they have to make their own way in life. I suppose if one or more show interest and work their way up, they may indeed get the reins.

I bet he leaves them all enough to live comfortably. Even his eldest daughter.

 

[Drumheller]

Let's see how these estimates change throughout 2024

 

[dhanson865]

View attachment 1004540


Let's see how these estimates change throughout 2024

Demand limited and Tesla should not be in the same sentence by someone that has been following Tesla as long as he has.

 

[AudubonB]

Time for Best Single 2024 Predictions



On Edit: JUST ONE, PLEASE!

Each participant is invited to present his or her single best prognostication for a Tesla-related occurrence in the next 365.24 days. Please keep it simple and relevant, and remember that good humor always is in fashion.

Mine definitely is simple; it also is one many will think a pimple on the dark side of the moon in importance….

But thinking about it certainly warms the cockles of MY heart:

PREDICTION -

In 2024, Tesla will have some very, very exciting news coming out of Anchorage Alaska. (at long last!)

 

[DaBooster]

View attachment 1004540


Let's see how these estimates change throughout 2024

This will age poorly

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1741507244666089852

 

[SarahsDad]

Time for Best Single 2024 Predictions


Each participant is invited to present his or her single best prognostication for a Tesla-related occurrence in the next 365.24 days. Please keep it simple and relevant, and remember that good humor always is in fashion.

Mine definitely is simple; it also is one many will think a pimple on the dark side of the moon in importance….

But thinking about it certainly warms the cockles of MY heart:

PREDICTION -

In 2024, Tesla will have some very, very exciting news coming out of Anchorage Alaska. (at long last!)

2,351,069 vehicles produced in 2024

 

[2daMoon]

2,351,069 vehicles produced in 2024

Be realistic.
It is more likely to be 2,420,069.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Time for Best Single 2024 Predictions


Each participant is invited to present his or her single best prognostication for a Tesla-related occurrence in the next 365.24 days. Please keep it simple and relevant, and remember that good humor always is in fashion.

Mine definitely is simple; it also is one many will think a pimple on the dark side of the moon in importance….

But thinking about it certainly warms the cockles of MY heart:

PREDICTION -

In 2024, Tesla will have some very, very exciting news coming out of Anchorage Alaska. (at long last!)

FSD can drive without occupants for most Tesla vehicles not using drive by wire.
(Edit to pick one

Mod edit for others:
SINGLE BEST, please. Thank you!

 

[NicoV]

Time for Best Single 2024 Predictions


Each participant is invited to present his or her single best prognostication for a Tesla-related occurrence in the next 365.24 days. Please keep it simple and relevant, and remember that good humor always is in fashion.

Mine definitely is simple; it also is one many will think a pimple on the dark side of the moon in importance….

But thinking about it certainly warms the cockles of MY heart:

PREDICTION -

In 2024, Tesla will have some very, very exciting news coming out of Anchorage Alaska. (at long last!)

Tesla will start production of the next gen Roadster in 2024.
If not, I already have my prediction for 2025 ready.

 

[JusRelax]

1. FSD can drive without occupants for most Tesla vehicles not using drive by wire.

2. FSD cross country, no occupants, zero disengagements.

3. A solution for flat tires.

4. 15% boost in 4680 battery range on an existing sold vehicle.

Oh, we can do multiple? Mod: No! Then here are my 3 best predictions in no particular order:

1. FSD will be approved for usage in China
2. Sometime in 2024, Tesla will provide video footage of Teslabot(s) working somewhere on a production line
3. Profit growth from energy will be larger than profit growth from auto for the year (I hope I'm wrong on this one)