Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

@Artful Dodger - Are you blocking me still? I won't bite, but repeating my posts (again) is pretty telling. Could be wrong, just sayin'.

 

[MartinAustin]

it's unlikely there's 700k extra buyers out there in 2024 for the same existing models at anything near current prices

Your assessment ignores that the majority of U.S. Model 3's sold in 2024 will be the Highland refresh: more luxurious, more demand, potentially better specs and potentially lower base price (by EOY).

 

[Mike Smith]

Your assessment ignores that the majority of U.S. Model 3's sold in 2024 will be the Highland refresh: more luxurious, more demand, potentially better specs and potentially lower base price (by EOY).

Also, demand for EVs is rising enormously every year. The media claims that consumer sentiment for EV adoption is slowing is a lie they tell to protect their customers, who are the EV challenged incumbent automakers

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Where is an example of MSM rooting for BYD? It's been pretty clear for the past 2 years that BYD would surpass Tesla, it's a matter of when, not if. Reporting that isn't favoring one company vs. another. BYD sold 1.6 million BEVs in 2023 and 3 million total cars.

BYD will likely never sell in the US and they offer lower priced options, it's not an apples to apples comparison, but MSM isn't wrong about BYD gaining on Tesla.

Never?

Chinese Companies Build Factories in Mexico to Exploit “Friendshoring” - Coalition For A Prosperous America

Rising levels of foreign direct investment by China into Mexico enables tariff-avoiding shipments of Chinese goods and parts into the U.S.

prosperousamerica.org

And then what happens if the tax credits are canceled?

 

[ChiefRollo]

Where is an example of MSM rooting for BYD? It's been pretty clear for the past 2 years that BYD would surpass Tesla, it's a matter of when, not if. Reporting that isn't favoring one company vs. another. BYD sold 1.6 million BEVs in 2023 and 3 million total cars.

BYD will likely never sell in the US and they offer lower priced options, it's not an apples to apples comparison, but MSM isn't wrong about BYD gaining on Tesla.

The EV portion of the personal automobile pie is in the teens. Competition to Tesla and the likes is with ICE vehicle automakers…toward their vehicle conversion to EV’s. Once the conversion reaches steady state (at who knows 80%?), then your distracting perspective may begin to be of some relevance. Until then, all EV players are compadres on the same journey to take business from decades-long complacent legacy automakers. Perhaps one or more of these legacy automakers are funding your effort to advance distraction and division among EV enthusiasts.

 

[cab]

They also have really great model names like the Seagull.

I'm definitely waiting for the "Jonathan Livingston" special edition then...

 

[cab]

I see a lot of comments here around how BYD will never be sold in the U.S A. I ASSUME that us because of #China. Is that strictly because of unfair tarrifs (which can always change)? I can't imagine it is more than that, given, you know there was another country in Asia that we didn't like for a long time that has ultimately done very well here...you know...the one that attacked us...drew us into war...ultimately had an atomic bomb dropped on them. Seems like "Chinese cars selling in the U.S." is entirely possible to me...just a matter of when.

 

[EVNow]

I see a lot of comments here around how BYD will never be sold in the U.S A. I ASSUME that us because of #China. Is that strictly because of unfair tarrifs (which can always change)? I can't imagine it is more than that, given, you know there was another country in Asia that we didn't like for a long time that has ultimately done very well here...you know...the one that attacked us...drew us into war...ultimately had an atomic bomb dropped on them. Seems like "Chinese cars selling in the U.S." is entirely possible to me...just a matter of when.

Oh - I thought you were talking about South Korea

I think China has got associated with "low quality" - thats bad for cars, where people will easily get scared because of safety implications. They need to change that perception to sell. Will happen but very slow. Not a threat to Tesla anytime this decade.

 

[EXOTIC1]

TSLA=
I think it’s highly lijeky that quarter one 2024 report will show they beat STREET 4th quarter expectations.
We shall see in about 6 weeks

Winner winner
Chicken dinner

 

[Mike Smith]

I see a lot of comments here around how BYD will never be sold in the U.S A. I ASSUME that us because of #China. Is that strictly because of unfair tarrifs (which can always change)? I can't imagine it is more than that, given, you know there was another country in Asia that we didn't like for a long time that has ultimately done very well here...you know...the one that attacked us...drew us into war...ultimately had an atomic bomb dropped on them. Seems like "Chinese cars selling in the U.S." is entirely possible to me...just a matter of when.

Pfth, Americans would never buy products made in China. An absurd idea!

 

[Todd Burch]

All this talk of BYD EV numbers. You can't look at any one thing in a vacuum.

Metrics that should all be considered:

1. Quantity: OK, BYD passed Tesla in pure quantity of EVs manufactured in Q4.

2. Cost: What is the cost of the product to the consumer? Naturally, lower cost products will generally sell in higher volumes, but that doesn't tell you anything about the health of the business. Since Mattel sells millions of electric RC cars every quarter, does that make them the EV king?

3. Revenue/Margins: Would you rather sell 3M pencils at $0.25 profit, or 1M pencils at $1 profit? Which one is the "king"?

 

[SOULPEDL]

I removed my OT post for feedback, but input is always welcome.

 

[unk45]

I think the reason BYD is doing well, and the reason why there is a chance than NIO and Xpeng also start to do well is one of attitude.
Chinese EV makers seem to look at Tesla, work out what they are doing, and do the same, in order to provide a decent competing product.
US and European makers seem to rely on bribing journalists, loud PR, lobbying of politicians, and flat out lying.
That works in the short term, but not the long term. In the long term, the companies making the best products win.

Just as one example: Please look up the Volvo EX30. here is a link:

Volvo EX30 | Small fully electric SUV | Volvo Cars

Discover the fully electric Volvo EX30, our smallest ever SUV.

www.volvocars.com

Then look up London Electric Vehicle Company:

LEVC | London Electric Vehicle Company

LEVC is a leading manufacturer and retailer of electric vehicles in the UK, including the iconic TX electric black cab.

levc.com

These are just two products of Geely, Chinese. Then tell us they just copy Tesla. Be sure to look at their design, engineering and manufacturing before you decide.

From BYD to GWM and SAIC they do design and build on their own. They do, like all sane companies, examine others companies closely and they do adopt better ideas from whence they come. Tesla cooperates with those efforts, indirectly through CATL and BYD, for example and directly with sharing experience with suppliers, including IDRA/LK.

To oversimplify and say the Chinese producers are simply copying Tesla is dangerous. Just remember, equally ill-informed Westerners said the same thing about Japanese and later Korean manufacturers, just copying Western technology.

Luckily for us as shareholders TSLA does not make those errors. By not underestimating them Tesla ends out with Model 3 Highland and soon to arrive Model Y. Those innovations came from Tesla China. From BMW, GM, MB and many others many models are designed and built in China and exported elsewhere not because of cheap labor but because of better EV and small vehicle design capability.

Otherwise we all need to realize, like or not, that Chinese technology is now mature and often superb. For better perspective check with Tesla's Senior VP Automotive. He knows more about that than do probably any of us.

I do emphasize all this because of the crucial importance of China and Chinese skills to Tesla success. I did not make this up, just read the Tesla statements, including those of Elon, and financial results.

 

[cliff harris]

I think China has got associated with "low quality" - thats bad for cars, where people will easily get scared because of safety implications. They need to change that perception to sell. Will happen but very slow. Not a threat to Tesla anytime this decade.

I've owned a fremont built model S, and a shanghai built model Y. The shanghai car is absolutely light years better built than the fremont one. Anecdotal I know, but I know I'd never buy a fremont built Tesla if a shanghai one was available.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I see a lot of comments here around how BYD will never be sold in the U.S A. I ASSUME that us because of #China. Is that strictly because of unfair tarrifs (which can always change)? I can't imagine it is more than that, given, you know there was another country in Asia that we didn't like for a long time that has ultimately done very well here...you know...the one that attacked us...drew us into war...ultimately had an atomic bomb dropped on them. Seems like "Chinese cars selling in the U.S." is entirely possible to me...just a matter of when.

People didn't like what Japanese government _was_. People don't like what Chinese government _is_. As long as the Chinese government continues to be a brutal dictatorship, the view won't change.

Some people will not care. Make it cheap enough and a lot of more people will not care. But some will, and those people are likely to be more affluent, and as long as there are other reasonable options, they will take them.
So volume might not be a problem, but margin might.

However, if you look at Europe, people are buying Chinese cars without much care: Tesla, MG, Volvo, Polestar, Dacia. Not sure where the EU market Toyota bZ4X and Subaru Solterra are manufactured. There are also some Chinese names selling in some places, but I don't think Chinese-name brands have sold as well in comparison.

China will adjust to the market and sell under Tesla or Chinese-owned foreign brands as necessary. It's all money.

The challenge some of the Chinese Chinese cars right now isn't just the tariffs, it's the tax credit. "Entity of concern" rules would continue to be a disadvantage. But if the tax credits are removed, so is the disadvantage.

 

[Knightshade]

Your assessment ignores that the majority of U.S. Model 3's sold in 2024 will be the Highland refresh: more luxurious, more demand, potentially better specs and potentially lower base price (by EOY).

I don't think it does?

Even to maintain the SAME number of sales they'd need to cut prices significantly, even with the refresh, to offset the lost credit. As I mention Highland has been selling for 2-4k above the pre-refresh version in other countries... but cost to customer in the US just went up $7500 on Jan 1 for 2/3 of Model 3 trims (which make up the large majority of all Model 3 sales)

Thus I don't see this meaningfully contributing to a 700k/yr increase in sales. And even if they went up 50% outside the US (which I don't think you can find any economic modeling to support the idea of, again some incentives elsewhere also went away just recently) AND you expect CT ramps way faster than expected, you're gonna need ANOTHER 500k customers for the non-refresh Y compared to this year to get remotely close to 700k additional sales in 2024.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Also, demand for EVs is rising enormously every year. The media claims that consumer sentiment for EV adoption is slowing is a lie they tell to protect their customers, who are the EV challenged incumbent automakers

Is it? In the US?

 

[unk45]

All this talk of BYD EV numbers. You can't look at any one thing in a vacuum.

Metrics that should all be considered:

1. Quantity: OK, BYD passed Tesla in pure quantity of EVs manufactured in Q4.

2. Cost: What is the cost of the product to the consumer? Naturally, lower cost products will generally sell in higher volumes, but that doesn't tell you anything about the health of the business. Since Mattel sells millions of electric RC cars every quarter, does that make them the EV king?

3. Revenue/Margins: Would you rather sell 3M pencils at $0.25 profit, or 1M pencils at $1 profit? Which one is the "king"?

What do you think are the margins for the battery packs sold by BYD to Tesla? I have no idea, absent published data. How about their Bus sales?

I absolutely agree with you about this:

...You can't look at any one thing in a vacuum...

That also means GAAP leaves wide variety in accounting policies and countries differ drastically in funding practices. Those happen regardless of the absolute differences in earning quality.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Pfth, Americans would never buy products made in China. An absurd idea!

Said by every Apple Iphone user.....................LOL.

 

[Todd Burch]

What do you think are the margins for the battery packs sold by BYD to Tesla? I have no idea, absent published data. How about their Bus sales?

I absolutely agree with you about this:

That also means GAAP leaves wide variety in accounting policies and countries differ drastically in funding practices. Those happen regardless of the absolute differences in earning quality.

I have no idea on BYD's margins for battery cells sold to Tesla to put in their packs. Nor any idea about their bus sales.

My comment is not a specific comment on BYD, just on the idiotic, myopic view of the media that just because BYD overtakes Tesla in quantity of EV sales in one quarter, that they suddenly become the "EV King", whatever that means.