Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drumheller]

Someone needs to research diligently - and distribute to all the fine, reputable news organizations out there -

the variation between

1. the published EPA data regarding fuel economy on new ICE vehicles AND, much more importantly,
2. how those numbers change over time & distances driven, TOGETHER WITH
3. similar change for EVs’ range changes

By various tricks of hypermilers, I have been able to match and sometimes exceed rated MPGs on my most recent ICEs, which range from a VW Golf through an F350. BUT….never, ever, have I been able to maintain such performance over the tens and hundreds of thousands of miles I put on such vehicles.

As d*mned close to the entire world knows, if you use an internal combustion engine, you deteriorate it. An electric motor? The deterioration is, for all intents and purposes, nigh-zero. And as Tesla owners know, a properly engineered and properly maintained battery pack also has a time-deterioration function that is quite minimal compared to that of an internal combustion engine.

Curious to know what you still consider a reputable news organization. My list is empty. 100% serious, no snark.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1744743020682154360

 

[Captkerosene]

Not sure if this was asked or answered already, sorry if a repeat.

My new son is about to get his 401K Roll-over check tomorrow and will be engaging TSLA with Grandpa! So of course, he's suddenly reading the headlines and felt the need to caution me about the EPA story.

So today I asked Chat to tell me if any of the other BEVs out there got a more "realistic estimate" from the new (stop/go methods of measuring and calculating). It could only find info on the 2024 Ford Lightning and said that it had improved range from these New EPA Tests.

Folks, this looks crooked to me. I got 3 theories:

1. Someone is trying to prevent Tesla from selling 2.5M in 2024.
2. The EPA has created a test intended to hurt Tesla over EV competitors.
3. The EPA hasn't tested other vehicles as of yet. However...

... if this is a delay tactic, it puts some shade on TSLA Earnings day - possibly to prevent this and maybe even cause this (which should get increasingly harder to do over time.)

So I told Rocky that the CPI will be out Thursday and could affect things either way, but that he should likely get in before TSLA ER on the 24th and ride out any attack (in case they do guide for 2.1M ). I assume there's other ways to do it, (like the moment he gets the check), or spread it out over 5-10 days without looking. He'll catch on I think, but they've got his ear for the moment.

Regarding the EPA here - What am I missing?
And is it possible that Tesla modifies (software or otherwise) for improvements to the new Tests?

ChatGPT4:

"The 2024 EPA range test methods have had a positive impact on the Ford F-150 Lightning. The final EPA testing for the F-150 Lightning revealed an increase in range for several models. For instance, the F-150 Lightning XLT and Lariat trims with the extended range battery now have an EPA-estimated range of 320 miles, up from the previously estimated 300 miles. Similarly, the F-150 Lightning Platinum model's range has increased from 280 miles to 300 miles. "​

Focus 80% on where TSLA will be in ten years. The other 10% on getting in at a good price. Nobody ever gets things exactly right so don't worry about the little stuff.
_____________________________

(I don't read every post anymore so this may have already been commented on.) So where will the auto business be in ten years? The new CT tech (DBW, 48V and ethernet) look to me to have dramatically increased Tesla's lead over the legacy competition. They aren't catching up ... we're pulling away. In the US market, Tesla is starting to look more and more like a monopoly as competitors will be forced to exit. Results in other markets will vary but our lead in automation and software will put us in a great position to beat the Chinese. (This occurred to me after eating a mushroom omelet so I think it's right.)

 

[SOULPEDL]

I don't have inside knowledge regarding the EPA and testing so can't say if there is bad behavior happening. I can say that I have never achieved epa range in either of the Teslas I have owned.

However, I will say this may be the most ridiculous forest for the trees situation I have seen in a long time. Your son is considering passing on investing in the most innovative company on Earth at this time because a range rating changed from 330 miles to 310? Seriously?

Easy... he's rolling into an IRA, check is to Schwab. I likely should have mentioned that. So he's a buyer asking questions. Nothing there there.

(Edit, I should add he lives in Northern Fla, but whole family is 100% on board with Tesla. Rare for that region, and I had to clarify some FUD first.)

 

[SOULPEDL]

Focus 80% on where TSLA will be in ten years. The other 10% on getting in at a good price. Nobody ever gets things exactly right so don't worry about the little stuff.
_____________________________

(I don't read every post anymore so this may have already been commented on.) So where will the auto business be in ten years? The new CT tech (DBW, 48V and ethernet) look to me to have dramatically increased Tesla's lead over the legacy competition. They aren't catching up ... we're pulling away. In the US market, Tesla is starting to look more and more like a monopoly as competitors will be forced to exit. Results in other markets will vary but our lead in automation and software will put us in a great position to beat the Chinese. (This occurred to me after eating a mushroom omelet so I think it's right.)

Correct.
Shrooms? Yum!

 

[Bet TSLA]

Wanna bet Cybertruck becomes the Official Truck of Mars AND Burning Man?

The Cybertruck is way too conventional to stand out at Burning Man.

Burning Man 2023: See the Cutest, Wildest Art Cars on the Playa

The cars range from a tricked-out golf cart to a soundstage on a school bus.

sfstandard.com

Besides, Burning Man is as non-commercial as possible, so they don't have an "official" anything.

As for Mars? I think you're looking at some serious mods before Cybertruck can work well on Mars. And it will be decades before the supply chain can be local. But I'm rooting for it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I tried to correct ChatGPT4 and this was the response! It stopped responding after "The..."
It choked on the truth!

 

[2daMoon]

(I don't read every post anymore so this may have already been commented on.) So where will the auto business be in ten years? The new CT tech (DBW, 48V and ethernet) look to me to have dramatically increased Tesla's lead over the legacy competition. They aren't catching up ... we're pulling away. In the US market, Tesla is starting to look more and more like a monopoly as competitors will be forced to exit. Results in other markets will vary but our lead in automation and software will put us in a great position to beat the Chinese. (This occurred to me after eating a mushroom omelet so I think it's right.)

You weren't specific about what sort of mushrooms were in the omelet that led to this revelation.

Though, I agree you might be on to something, rather than just "on" something.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I don't have inside knowledge regarding the EPA and testing so can't say if there is bad behavior happening. I can say that I have never achieved epa range in either of the Teslas I have owned.

However, I will say this may be the most ridiculous forest for the trees situation I have seen in a long time. Your son is considering passing on investing in the most innovative company on Earth at this time because a range rating changed from 330 miles to 310? Seriously?

EPA range is easy to achieve in our valley. The max speed limit is 100 kmh and that’s rare. Most are 90 kmh or below. And there are so many small towns that a lot of times one is travelling 60 kmh. A 400 kilometer road trip up and down the valley easily leaves 100 kilometres or more on the remaining range. At least in summer. (Haven’t done it in winter).

 

[advocate8]

The Cybertruck is way too conventional to stand out at Burning Man.

Burning Man 2023: See the Cutest, Wildest Art Cars on the Playa

The cars range from a tricked-out golf cart to a soundstage on a school bus.

sfstandard.com

Besides, Burning Man is as non-commercial as possible, so they don't have an "official" anything.

As for Mars? I think you're looking at some serious mods before Cybertruck can work well on Mars. And it will be decades before the supply chain can be local. But I'm rooting for it.

Will finally be able to get rid of that wiper. That’s a plus.

 

[EQC_]

...
By various tricks of hypermilers, I have been able to match and sometimes exceed rated MPGs on my most recent ICEs, which range from a VW Golf through an F350. ...

The "problem" as I see it is that EV's are different. People are used to ICE and how it works within the current "Combined MPG" ratings (with foot-noted City and Highway figures), and know what to expect based on their own driving habits. When they look at the ratings of an EV, and then take similar expectations from their ICE experience, they get unexpected results and complain. We really just need a completey different rating system.

I think everything would be "solved" (ie: no unexpected things to complain about) if the MPG/Range/Efficiency ratings showed separate numbers for, perhaps 4 categories, plus the usual asterisk, plus an extra EV asterisk:

1. "Stop and Go"
2. Cruising at 55 MPH
3. Cruising at 70 MPH
4. Cruising at 85 MPH
5. ASTERISK: "Driving style/acceleration, wind, cold, heat, hilly or mountainous conditions, load and/or towing can significantly reduce efficiency and range."
6. EV ASTERISK: "If planning to charge between 10% and 80% (or whatever this particular battery chemistry is designed for), expect to only achieve 70% of the above figures, while still noting ASTERISK 5.

With the above, pretty much anybody could look at their current driving plans and speed, and figure out what their range should be.

In the current system, most people only see that "Combined" MPG or Range figure, but the real world results of EV's and ICE's are sortof opposites when starting with those figures...further explanation/details in the lengthy "spoiler" below.

1. Spoiler: Spoiler: Lengthy details about the "opposite" realities.

   1. EVs and ICE's are opposites in terms of efficiency
      1. ICE cars generally have much worse "City" MPG ratings than "Highway." The Combined ratings are based on 55% City and 45% Highway, so the combined rating is brought down. Stop-and-go (in the city, or in traffic) ruins ICE efficiency, so people's every-day in-town and commute driving is probably lower MPG than they will see on a road trip. It still varies with vehicle and aerodynamics, but with a reasonable cruising speed on a road trip, it is reasonable to get better than the Highway MPG rating (and way better than the Combined MPG rating and the MPG people are "used to" driving through the city or sitting in traffic).
      2. EV's are most efficient at lower speeds. You can use the fueleconomy.gov website to see the difference in the City and Highway and Combined ratings on EVs. Teslas are generally notably better on the "city" rating than "highway." Hypermilers on the early Model S were getting 500+ miles by trying to cruise at 25-30 mph...and even if they had to slow or stop, regeneration would help minimize the "damage." So, that 55% City/45% Highway to produce the combined efficiency and range rating is brought UP by the high City figure. And, even that highway rating is based on very little high-speed cruising, a slow average speed, and even some stop and go -- so even that isn't a good approximation of a higher-speed road trip range and efficiency for an EV. People doing their daily drive in an EV and charging at home don't really care much about the "range" -- they just need to complete the commute. But, efficiency will be pretty darn good in town or in slow moving traffic. Get on a road trip with high speeds and open roads, and the miles per kWh and total range will drop relative to the ratings and probably relative to what they are used to around town and in slower traffic.
   2. ICE and EV swap "pain points" on a road trip
      1. In an ICE, the fuel is expensive...but the range is long and refueling time is short.
         1. Fuel is expensive, but a bigger fuel tank (for more range) cost the manufacturer nothing and adds convenience.
         2. Most ICE cars have a range that exceeds most people's biological needs on a road trip. 300-500 miles while still leaving a cushion in the tank is pretty typical. The "pain" is in the cost of the fill-up, not the frequency or the time it takes.
      2. In an EV, the electricity is cheaper...but the range is shorter and the refueling time is longer.
         1. Electricity is cheaper, but a bigger battery is expensive.
         2. People don't want to charge to 100% or drain it to near zero.
            1. So, the rated range of their EV was probably lower than their previous ICE...and they don't even want to use the full battery...and their efficiency is going to be worse on a high speed road trip.
            2. Especially if they are recharging from 10-20% (for security), filling up to about 80% (for battery longevity), it's going to feel bad. They're only using 60-70% of the battery. And, getting lower efficiency due to the nature of a faster road trip, they will often "need" to recharge after about half of full rated range of the car. 150-200 miles even if the EV is rated for 300 miles

   [*]

In addition to the above note about changing the rating figures that consumers see, it would probably also be worth promoting the HEALTH value of stopping every couple hours during a road trip. There are plenty of people who will brag about doing 400 miles (or more!) between stops at 80 miles per hour...but there are very few doctors who would recommend sitting for 5 hours straight in a car. It is GOOD to stop every couple hours and at least walk around a bit. If we can escape the ICE mentality of "making good time" on a road trip, it would make good sense to drive for a couple hours and then stretch and walk around for 20-30 minutes while the car charges.

 

[navguy12]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1744743020682154360

I wonder what the median price chart would look like.

I am always sceptical of this type of chart…one fully equipped plutonium edition F-150 can skew/cancel out five Toyota Corollas.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I wonder what the median price chart would look like.

I am always sceptical of this type of chart…one fully equipped plutonium edition F-150 can skew/cancel out five Toyota Corollas.

In the same vein a 120k CT or Lucid will cancel out multiple Model 3 rwds.

 

[2daMoon]

The "problem" as I see it is that EV's are different. People are used to ICE and how it works within the current "Combined MPG" ratings (with foot-noted City and Highway figures), and know what to expect based on their own driving habits. When they look at the ratings of an EV, and then take similar expectations from their ICE experience, they get unexpected results and complain. We really just need a completey different rating system.

I think everything would be "solved" (ie: no unexpected things to complain about) if the MPG/Range/Efficiency ratings showed separate numbers for, perhaps 4 categories, plus the usual asterisk, plus an extra EV asterisk:

1. "Stop and Go"
2. Cruising at 55 MPH
3. Cruising at 70 MPH
4. Cruising at 85 MPH
5. ASTERISK: "Driving style/acceleration, wind, cold, heat, hilly or mountainous conditions, load and/or towing can significantly reduce efficiency and range."
6. EV ASTERISK: "If planning to charge between 10% and 80% (or whatever this particular battery chemistry is designed for), expect to only achieve 70% of the above figures, while still noting ASTERISK 5.

With the above, pretty much anybody could look at their current driving plans and speed, and figure out what their range should be.

In the current system, most people only see that "Combined" MPG or Range figure, but the real world results of EV's and ICE's are sortof opposites when starting with those figures...further explanation/details in the lengthy "spoiler" below.

1. Spoiler: Spoiler: Lengthy details about the "opposite" realities.

   1. EVs and ICE's are opposites in terms of efficiency
      1. ICE cars generally have much worse "City" MPG ratings than "Highway." The Combined ratings are based on 55% City and 45% Highway, so the combined rating is brought down. Stop-and-go (in the city, or in traffic) ruins ICE efficiency, so people's every-day in-town and commute driving is probably lower MPG than they will see on a road trip. It still varies with vehicle and aerodynamics, but with a reasonable cruising speed on a road trip, it is reasonable to get better than the Highway MPG rating (and way better than the Combined MPG rating and the MPG people are "used to" driving through the city or sitting in traffic).
      2. EV's are most efficient at lower speeds. You can use the fueleconomy.gov website to see the difference in the City and Highway and Combined ratings on EVs. Teslas are generally notably better on the "city" rating than "highway." Hypermilers on the early Model S were getting 500+ miles by trying to cruise at 25-30 mph...and even if they had to slow or stop, regeneration would help minimize the "damage." So, that 55% City/45% Highway to produce the combined efficiency and range rating is brought UP by the high City figure. And, even that highway rating is based on very little high-speed cruising, a slow average speed, and even some stop and go -- so even that isn't a good approximation of a higher-speed road trip range and efficiency for an EV. People doing their daily drive in an EV and charging at home don't really care much about the "range" -- they just need to complete the commute. But, efficiency will be pretty darn good in town or in slow moving traffic. Get on a road trip with high speeds and open roads, and the miles per kWh and total range will drop relative to the ratings and probably relative to what they are used to around town and in slower traffic.
   2. ICE and EV swap "pain points" on a road trip
      1. In an ICE, the fuel is expensive...but the range is long and refueling time is short.
         1. Fuel is expensive, but a bigger fuel tank (for more range) cost the manufacturer nothing and adds convenience.
         2. Most ICE cars have a range that exceeds most people's biological needs on a road trip. 300-500 miles while still leaving a cushion in the tank is pretty typical. The "pain" is in the cost of the fill-up, not the frequency or the time it takes.
      2. In an EV, the electricity is cheaper...but the range is shorter and the refueling time is longer.
         1. Electricity is cheaper, but a bigger battery is expensive.
         2. People don't want to charge to 100% or drain it to near zero.
            1. So, the rated range of their EV was probably lower than their previous ICE...and they don't even want to use the full battery...and their efficiency is going to be worse on a high speed road trip.
            2. Especially if they are recharging from 10-20% (for security), filling up to about 80% (for battery longevity), it's going to feel bad. They're only using 60-70% of the battery. And, getting lower efficiency due to the nature of a faster road trip, they will often "need" to recharge after about half of full rated range of the car. 150-200 miles even if the EV is rated for 300 miles

   [*]

In addition to the above note about changing the rating figures that consumers see, it would probably also be worth promoting the HEALTH value of stopping every couple hours during a road trip. There are plenty of people who will brag about doing 400 miles (or more!) between stops at 80 miles per hour...but there are very few doctors who would recommend sitting for 5 hours straight in a car. It is GOOD to stop every couple hours and at least walk around a bit. If we can escape the ICE mentality of "making good time" on a road trip, it would make good sense to drive for a couple hours and then stretch and walk around for 20-30 minutes while the car charges.

Keep in mind that the majority of people you would be addressing with this are in that majority because they won't invest time thinking about those sorts of things. i.e.: What?! I have to learn something new? Nah, I'll just get another gas burner that I'm used to dealing with.

How's that old saying go... You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it think.

 

[navguy12]

In the same vein a 120k CT or Lucid will cancel out multiple Model 3 rwds.

In other words, that chart, as is, is noise.

 

[hobbes]

The sooner X destroys the mainstream media the better. They deserve to die.

Yeah right, just one platform as an information source for everyone, what could go wrong as long as Elon is in charge

Why do people have to go to extremes all of the time? This kind of posting here is the same as the critized media´s click-bait headlines, trying to get attention and obviously it works.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Well, at least the stock was a relatively steady crappy today.

 

[ifish]

Yeah right, just one platform as an information source for everyone, what could go wrong as long as Elon is in charge

Why do people have to go to extremes all of the time? This kind of posting here is the same as the critized media´s click-bait headlines, trying to get attention and obviously it works.

Somewhat OT : Has anyone heard of "Project Omega" ? My son in Law heard about it but that's all.

 

[AudubonB]

Somewhat OT : Has anyone heard of "Project Omega" ? My son in Law heard about it but that's all.

Well, I just extrapolated to that, starting from “Beta testing”…..

and since the result depressed me so much I think I really, really don’t want to know.

 

[Max Plaid]

The EPA doesn't conduct testing, the manufacturers report it to them.

Tesla has always been very aggressive with their adjustment factor, which is why very often they do worse (percentage wise) in real world testing than others.

The Secret Adjustment Factor Tesla Uses to Get Its Big EPA Range Numbers

How Tesla puts distance between itself and the competition while still playing by the EPA's rules.

www.caranddriver.com

Basically what is in this article here is what Tesla and Audi have used to get higher EPA results and the EPA is now making manufacturers use the default drive mode instead of Chill that Tesla was using and I've read some things (I could be wrong) that they aren't able to use this adjustment the same way they were previously.

Regardless, others aren't being punished because they weren't trying to be overly aggressive in their estimates.

Ah, but in "Chill Mode" Teslas are still faster than other EV's, so hardly fair now, is it?