Guilty as charged, lol. I don't usually buy 18 month LEAPS with the intent to sell a month or two later, but clearly that would have been the move. Live and learn. Really, really hoping for 300 by this time next year.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
See that makes more sense, the filming location in today's video
EDIT:
Ah, I see the new address is only 3 miles from the Tesla / NUMMI site:
It seems it was the Tesla blogosphere which spread the rumor about this site being for 4680 cell production:
Tesla looks to expand 4680 cell production with new Fremont facility | teslarati.com (June 9, 2023)
Cheers!
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Doesn't matter does it. He could not say these things and take net margins down to zero anyways. Since it's already said many times the market just assumes those are his plans until he change...which I don't really see how he would if production out pace demand.
GhostSkater
Member
More anecdotes of Brazilian EV market
In my smallish ~250k city, it seems they are popping everywhere, in my neighborhood it feels like there is a new one every week. In some quick errands today I saw a Ora, a Dolphin and a Haval (GWM PHEV but with a huge battery)
Tesla needs to get that next gen compact here
In my smallish ~250k city, it seems they are popping everywhere, in my neighborhood it feels like there is a new one every week. In some quick errands today I saw a Ora, a Dolphin and a Haval (GWM PHEV but with a huge battery)
Tesla needs to get that next gen compact here
Still too soon to know.
It's spike season!Selling any now would be a loss IMO. Maybe some at a much better price, but not here.
Agreed. With that in mind, and the fact that it's prolly a year and a half to 2 years before GigaMexico is producing and exporting Gen 3's, does it make sense building up infrastructure (Superchargers and Service Centres) first? Brazil and South America in general is such fertile market for inexpensive affordable BEV's, I would hate to see the Chinese brands saturate it before Tesla shows their hand.
Todays update:
I should add that he also includes a bunch of collected media (photos/videos/links) in follow up replies to each days post.
I should add that he also includes a bunch of collected media (photos/videos/links) in follow up replies to each days post.
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Thinking further about how to get Elon to 25% (yesterday there was discussion about a starlink and/or Xai transaction whereby Tesla purchases all or some of these companies with stock, which would then be under Elon voting control).
One other obvious candidate, which is actually much more aligned with Tesla already is The Boring Company.
Would anyone here object to Tesla buying that from Elon for $10 Billion? If so, what would be a fair price Instead?
One other obvious candidate, which is actually much more aligned with Tesla already is The Boring Company.
Would anyone here object to Tesla buying that from Elon for $10 Billion? If so, what would be a fair price Instead?
GhostSkater
Member
I see both ways, BYD and GWM afaik (@unk45 correct me please) aren't doing anything infrastructure wide directly, and also I would say there is way too much market for them to saturate
I think the real reason Tesla isn't here yet is that it isn't worth for them, even the cheapest Model 3 is expensive, and the volume would be huge market wise but not huge Tesla wise
In terms of Supercharger Network, with a quick look on the map, I would say Tesla needs maybe 20~30 sites to cover a huge portion of potential owners and with as low as 10 to cover a significant portion, this is ignoring inner city ones, and focusing just on highways
We have this huge rest stop network called Graal with 30 something locations, a Tesla partnership with them would be a really good starting point, safe, open 24/7, with amenities of all kinds, fast food, restaurants, shops, etc
Couldn't find a map for their units in all states, but this is for the state of São Paulo where most of the locations are anyway
Size would depend if it's open for all or just for Teslas, even a 6 stall Supercharger would be enough in most locations, with bigger ones in main corridors
Oh, and lots of them already have EV chargers up to 150 kW but usually one or two plugs only
Does Elon have a controlling stake in either XAI or Boring Co?
I’d fully support this as I don’t have any exposure to either company myself but I’m guessing investors in those companies might feel like they weren’t getting a good deal.
Good question. I assume he is the majority owner of both, by a large margin. Likely much more in the way of outstanding options for staff incentives at Xai I am guessing though.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
No, Tesla doesn't need to build out a SuC network for Chinese EVs to use until Model 2 arrives.
A new episode of Autoline just dropped and it's a doozy. If you want to reaffirm why you have invested in TSLA the automaker/manufacturer this one is for you.
I work in technology and have been a Tesla follower for years. I am amazed at how resistant people are to change and the power of the phrase "that will never work" In my lifetime I have been a part of so many of these "that will never work" it blows me away the level of resistance to change.
I got my haircut at my barber shop yesterday morning. It was a slow day, they saw me pull up in our R1S (its better than the X right now...argue if you want) to which I got lobbed every "but what about" you could think of. I have now gotten to the point of merely answering questions thrown my way and not trying to fight the good fight at explaining or trying to sell EV's. Reason being for this shift is, I believe we have reached the inevitability stage of this change. It's not an if...it's a when. The people in the barber shop will be faced with the reality in no time on their own. I don't need to sell them on anything...they will figure it out themselves. The people on the show fascinate me because they are in their own process of realizing how F'd the legacy OEM's are. They are desperate for someone to tell them everything is going to be all right...
I work in technology and have been a Tesla follower for years. I am amazed at how resistant people are to change and the power of the phrase "that will never work" In my lifetime I have been a part of so many of these "that will never work" it blows me away the level of resistance to change.
I got my haircut at my barber shop yesterday morning. It was a slow day, they saw me pull up in our R1S (its better than the X right now...argue if you want) to which I got lobbed every "but what about" you could think of. I have now gotten to the point of merely answering questions thrown my way and not trying to fight the good fight at explaining or trying to sell EV's. Reason being for this shift is, I believe we have reached the inevitability stage of this change. It's not an if...it's a when. The people in the barber shop will be faced with the reality in no time on their own. I don't need to sell them on anything...they will figure it out themselves. The people on the show fascinate me because they are in their own process of realizing how F'd the legacy OEM's are. They are desperate for someone to tell them everything is going to be all right...
Krugerrand
Meow
You should make other plans then to do something else during that time slot.
So maybe some kind of SACS?No, Tesla doesn't need to build out a SuC network for Chinese EVs to use until Model 2 arrives.
/s
I came to post this video also. Really a great watch!
As you say, the realization that legacy OEMs are F'd is slowly but surely becoming evident to the auto industry. Folks like this CEO of Caresoft and Sandy Munro are too knowledgeable and their words carry a lot of weight. It's no longer just Elon and Tesla talking about how far ahead they are. Add teardown experts like this plus even the admissions by legacy OEMs that they can't compete should make it obvious to anyone who is willing to think through the logic.
But even with this inevitability staring them in the face, these guys on Autoline are still clinging onto the hope that thisis just temporary and will blow over once the legacy OEMs get their act together. They still don't get that the game is over for them. Lol at the guy who scoffs at Tesla's goal of selling 20 million cars in 2030.
All I can say is, legacy OEMs are getting exactly what they deserve. I, for one, have no sympathy for them and hope they go down in flames. I will be very angry if (when?) they get bailed out by their respective governments.
I'd like to see a refreshed Model Y out by mid year. That should drive up interest and demand (and profits) at the current prices.
Wildcard for me is how much more efficient manufacturing the Highland Model 3 is.
My long standing opinion on ramp progress for 4680s remains unchanged.Interesting report out of China saying that Tesla had to buy cathode coils from tier 2 suppliers in China to bridge a shortfall of 4680 production. CATL and BYD declined to supply them since they only want to supply complete cells. Tesla hasn’t been able to make enough cathodes for their 4680 production goals, apparently due to their inability to yield cathode DBE. This occurred in 2023 and may persist well into this year.
Tesla importing cell parts from China to expand 4680 battery capacity, report says
Tesla began purchasing cathode coils from two second-tier Chinese battery makers in the second half of 2023 and shipping them to its Texas factory in the US to produce 4680 batteries, according to local media.cnevpost.com
I will not be concerned about progress until 6 months after the Cathode plant is complete and operational.
Reasons why Tesla might be building the Cathode plant (in order of importance) are:-
- Quality.
- Quantity.
- Price.
If quality is an issue it might be why Tesla had no choice, they had to build the cathode plant.
For example, quality might be :- "single crystal cathode with a particular uniform crystal size with fine tolerances".
I would not be surprised if something like that was true, and there was a trade off, where smaller crystal sizes worked better for DBE, at the cost of some energy density.
Larger crystal cathodes might dent or damage roller equipment, non-uniform sizes might affect yield, multi-crystal cathodes might crack during rolling, impacting on yield and possibly damaging equipment.
The reason Tesla might not be using the ideal cathode raw materials at present is, it may be impossible to buy sufficient volumes at the right grade for a good price.
I might be wrong, but if it isn't a problem related to ingredient quality, it is ultimately some problem that can be solved. Or at worst Tesla can construct a wet cathode plant somewhere.
IMO the cathode plant is more likely to be making high quality cathode ingredients, rather than a wet cathode..
Why wasn't the Cathode plant built earlier? it could be that getting the design and equipment right was important, and there could have been long lead times on some of the necessary equipment.
Why hasn't tesla told us why they are building the Cathode plant? Maybe they want competitors to assume it is all about quantity and price, when quality is the most important criteria.
Me too. I know a few people ready to buy a Model Y but after seeing the Model 3 refresh reviews, they have decided to wait for the Model Y refresh.
I typically keep my cars for a long time but may make an exception and trade in my Y for the refresh one if it feels like a big enough “improvement”.
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