Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[raffiniert]

double clicking on a 'buy now' link

I‘m sorry to enlighten you, but you don‘t need to doubleclick links on the internet.

Always at your service, R

 

[Bet TSLA]

Nice. It will be interesting to see how v12 fares in real world testing.

If it's still called a beta (which Teslascope says it is), then I'm expecting to be disappointed. Just like every other time a new, wonderful, amazing version has come out. Been getting updates to Autopilot since 2014, and updates to FSD since it came out. So long as I expect it to be nothing much, I can avoid serious disappointment. But, hey, we live in hope.

I mean it's great stuff (I wouldn't have bought it three times if it weren't). But it's truly junk compared to the picture Elon has been painting since the beginning. It will indeed be nice if this is the time that the research project turns into an actual development project.

http://[URL='https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/[/URL]']https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/

[/URL]
(goes only to January 2022)

 

[Musskiah]

I actually thought about this a lot.

The number I am aiming for is about one order of magnitude above where I am and I am 4/10th of the way there.

Now I can go through excruciatng pain and spend about 20 years to create a company that can get to that number. Or I can just sit back, put my assets in a 5% interest asset and coast. I'd get to the same place in 20 years.

And this for me, is the argument for diversification cation. Obviously you can't get to that number if you use diversification as you start out. Cause $1 at 5% interest annualy just give you 5 cents.

So I think personally diversification should be taken seriously for two situations. 1, you no long need to try hard. 2. You have no natural talent/advantages when it comes to investing.

Natural talent/advantage in investing for me exist in two forms. 1. You are very good at stock picking to a point where you have a decade of experience beating the index and the pros. This usually shows up as a 20% yoy growth from the talented ppl I've seen. And this is a catch 22. As how can you know you are good without trying in for a decade.

The other one is you are very good at raising money and you can earn a lot from just a one point incrrase from the money you've raised.

In the situation where you have no natural talent in investing and you are just starting out. The reason for diversification is because even if you put 40hr/ week into investing. Yhe return on capital for someone starting out with just 10k, is less than if you just take up a second job and earn minimum wage. It only ever start to make sense when you have 500k to invest, cause now 5% of 500k is a significant amount compared to your wages.

In a way, you can see diversification as going all in in your own domain of expertise. Investing in a stock called "your career. But what I find usually is that ppl often have no talent in both.

How do you determine talent? Simply put, you can do something that a 3 year veteran in the field can do from just 1 months of learning. I've personally seen it happrn several times in the many hobbies I have and each time I'd let the young ppl know they have talent. I am not sure they believe me though.

I personally am a product of focus. But what I tell ppl usually is to diversify and forget about it. Cause this suggestion applies to 95% of ppl and I don't know most ppl enough to know they are partof the 5%. And tgis way also avoid a lot of legal landmines.

I really appreciate this perspective.

 

[jerry33]

At today’s SP, it will cost Tesla $6 Billion to reduce share count by 1%. That’s a GigaFactory. Personally, I “ll take the GF.

At current FCF levels, Tesla’s SP would have to fall by a lot to make a buyback a worthwhile proposition.

Most proponents of a TSLA buyback are not trying to justify it by running the numbers. They are more hoping for a calming or psychological effect on markets. That says it all

A ten cent dividend would be far less expensive and would have more of an effect. Especially if they can time it so the short interest is over 60%

 

[jerry33]

Another Cybertruck towing video

TLDW: 65 mph towing a huge camper 1200 Wh/mi, at 55 mph 935 Wh/mi, and just the Cybertruck Cyberbeast 386 Wh/mi

Another tester towing a Model 3 in a car trailer got 749 Wh/mi

The most impressive of this all is the Semi, that gets 1700 to 2000 Wh/mi being much bigger in frontal area and almost an order of magnitude heavier

Towing needs an aero revolution since right now is basically bricks being dragged into the wind, hopefully we will see some companies putting the engineering effort on that, there might be a big enough market for Cybertruck specifically design trailers

There are companies doing that already and have been doing it for a few years. There are threads on them.

 

[AudubonB]

Some of us find it useful to further qualify the source of an opinion to better determine how much credence to give it.

After all, The Dude put a lot of stock in Credence. So, I tend to abide with that strategy.

I'm very happy letting the Duderino be the Duderino, but as for me, I put my credence in stock.

 

[Musskiah]

Next week, people are already betting some volume at 225. That could be a trap, too high risk for moi.

If I were to consider any options, I'd be looking at least out to Q4 when 4680 batteries are ramping, maybe further and deep so that this noise is irrelevant but the unwinding could pay off. Not advice.

View attachment 1010161

June 2026 came to market a couple weeks ago. IV is historically low. I am not certain FSD will be out of BETA, but it's possible TSLA will be selling more Bots than Semis or Megapacks combined by then. Looking back from then on to today will be like looking back on June 2021 from today - when FSD BETA wide release hadn't happened yet, Optimus wouldn't be revealed until the following quarter, the Semi was 2 years late to market and counting, and Lathrop hadn't broken ground yet. It's absolutely bonkers: the breadth, the pace the inertia built into this stock. The spring...it coils

P.S. I realize the "pace" can be contested by contranian/skeptic opinion; exceptions that haven't fully come to fruition (BETA, 4680s, Roadster, Semi, etc). I would obviously reply, #remindme June 2026

 

[MC3OZ]

We tend to get a lot more criticism in here when the share price is down, and IMO the market is undervaluing Tesla.
Nothing wrong with criticism as long as it is:- fair, accurate, well-reasoned and impersonal.
At times when the market is perhaps overvaluing Tesla we can get optimism which isn't well reasoned.
It has been a long time since there has been any level of optimism in here which coincides with Tesla being at least fairly valued.
If Tesla is under valued, optimism isn't a major problem.

So why does the market mostly perhaps undervalue Tesla?

Capex - it costs money to build factories.
Margins - take a hit while ramping new production lines. - margins/earnings.
Interest rates - can impact on demand/margins/earnings
Inflation - can impact on margins/earnings
Possible future recession - can impact on demand/revenue/margins/earnings (Hence the pace of expansion has been slowed as a precaution.)

The raw numbers Wall St looks at can be very different in a time of low interest rates, low inflation, strong and economic growth with fully ramped and optimised factories and lines,- compared to - higher interest rates, factories and lines being built and ramping.

It is possible to squeeze a bit more production out of a mature factory, but most of the growth in production (2024/2025) is going to come from Austin, followed by Berlin. IMO those ramps at Berlin and Austin will help revenue, margins and earnings progressively through 2024-2025 but probably not Q4 2023.

Current status at Austin -

• 4680 Body shop line not running - 2170 line running - capacity 75%?
• Cybertruck - one line ramping, additional line being added Q2 - capacity 10%?
• Possible Gen3 line - status unknown - capacity 0%
• 4680 production - 1 line close to fully ramped - 3 additional lines ramping, 4 more lines coming - capacity 7%-10%?
• Production running 5/7 days - reduce Model Y capacity from 75% to 53%?

My capacity numbers are guesses, but the point is there are a lot of lines installed, or which will be installed by the end of this year, which are not yet running, or not running at peak capacity.

So why is vehicle production only running 5/7 days?

• Cells
• Staff
• parking/ logistics (also needed to add staff)

This is a clue about why I have been talking so much about parking and logistics at Austin, They will not be able to run the factory at anything like the peak installed capacity unless they sort that out.

The good news is they are doing a lot about parking/logistics at Austin and to me it looks like the highest priority, because it probably is.. The second highest priority is recruiting staff, but those staff also need somewhere to park.

My conclusion - if Tesla are hiring more staff and expanding parking and logistics, then they expect to have sufficient cells to run the factory at a higher capacity and that expectation is - sometime in 2024.

 

[Musskiah]

We tend to get a lot more criticism in here when the share price is down, and IMO the market is undervaluing Tesla.
Nothing wrong with criticism as long as it is:- fair, accurate, well-reasoned and impersonal.
At times when the market is perhaps overvaluing Tesla we can get optimism which isn't well reasoned.
It has been a long time since there has been any level of optimism in here which coincides with Tesla being at least fairly valued.
If Tesla is under valued, optimism isn't a major problem.

So why does the market mostly perhaps undervalue Tesla?

Capex - it cost money to build factories.
Margins - take a hit while ramping new production lines. - margins/earnings.
Interest rates - can impact on demand/margins/earnings
Inflation - can impact on margins/earnings
Possible future recession - can impact on demand/revenue/margins/earnings (Hence the pace of expansion has been slowed as a precaution.)

The raw numbers Wall St looks at can be very different in a time of low interest rates, low inflation, strong and economic growth with fully ramped and optimised factories and lines,- compared to - higher interest rates, factories and lines being built and ramping.

It is possible to squeeze a bit more production out of a mature factory, but most of the growth in production (2024/2025) is going to come from Austin, followed by Berlin. IMO those ramps at Berlin and Austin will help revenue, margins and earnings progressively through 2024-2025 but probably not Q4 2023.

Current status at Austin -

• 4680 Body shop line not running - 2170 line running - capacity 75%?
• Cybertruck - one line ramping additional line being added Q2 - capacity 10%?
• Possible Gen3 line - status unknown - capacity 0%
• 4680 production - 1 line close to fully ramped - 3 additional lines ramping, 4 more lines coming - capacity 7%-10%?
• Production running 5/7 days - reduce Model Y capacity from 75% to 53%?

My capacity numbers are guesses, but the point is there are a lot of lines installed or which will be installed by the end of this year which are not yet running, or not running at peak capacity.

So why is vehicle production only running 5/7 days?

• Cells
• Staff
• parking/ logistics (also needed to add staff)

This is a clue to why I have been talking so much about parking and logistics at Austin, They will not be able to run the factory at anything like the peak installed capacity unless they sort that out.

The good news is they are doing a lot about parking/logistics at Austin and to me it looks like the highest priority, because it probably is.. The second highest priority is recruiting staff, but those staff also need somewhere to park.

My conclusion - if Tesla are hiring more staff and expanding parking and logistics, then they expect to have sufficient cells to run the factory at a higher capacity and that expectation is - sometime in 2024.

Great post. I would add
SHANGHAI GIGAPHASE 3 (CompactAsia) & Lingang MEGAFACTORY will be cranking by late 2025 & Lathrop will be cranking 10,000 Megapacks (unless Elon was sandbagging) & Sparks 50,000 semis. That may add a little to the growth story the next 2 years.

But...Mr. Market can vote Tesla down for a long time...until it finally pulls out the scale

 

[MC3OZ]

Great post. I would add
SHANGHAI GIGAPHASE 3 (CompactAsia) & Lingang MEGAFACTORY will be cranking by late 2025 & Lathrop will be cranking 10,000 Megapacks (unless Elon was sandbagging) & Sparks 50,000 semis. That may add a little to the growth story the next 2 years.

But...Mr. Market can vote Tesla down for a long time...until it finally pulls out the scale

What I think is happening at present with Sparks is a simple lower capex factory to just produce Semis, not batteries. In addition to lower capex, that should ramp faster.

More Megapack factories in places like the EU and India also seems like a good idea, assuming a reliable cell supply can be locked in.

There is a new building Tesla has purchased/leased close to they Taylor railyard in Texas, slim chance that might also be a Megapack factory one day,.

 

[gene]

Finally more normal conditions range numbers for the Cybertruck.

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/positive-range-report-1000-miles-280-miles-average-range-440wh-mi-consumption-houston-tx.11619/

 

[Musskiah]

$30 BILLION starts to make sense when we see how the Indian government wants to buildout the ecosystems of "[energy] storage" and chip manufactuing around Tesla. Over 80% (CEO Alex Karp said 84%) of the most valuable tech companies on earth are currently US borne. As the manufacturing tech giants, like Apple and Tesla, move from China to India, this is the chance for India to develop state-of-the-art infrastructure and manufacturing base. This is a big moment for India. I now have a feeling the politics surrounding GigaIndia negotiations may end up moving along more slowly than Berlin was built...

SOURCE: India, US addressing Pannun controversy; Tesla awaits EV policy for entry: Mukesh Aghi

On the much anticipated electric vehicle (EV) major Tesla’s entry into India, Aghi, who was in India briefly to participate in the Vibrant Gujarat Summit recently, said that there is no discussion on the same as Tesla is awaiting India’s EV policy and that the company’s entry would involve a strong chip manufacturing ecosystem and not just a battery ecosystem. Edited excerpts:

"You have what is called a geopolitical alignment. The US companies want to secure the supply chain. That is driving the relationship. The access to each other’s market is critical. Another factor is the five million Indian American population in the US. They comprise 1.5 per cent of the population but generate about six per cent of the gross domestic product. So they are affluent and are deeply engaged in political appointments too.

There hasn’t been a discussion on Tesla. Tesla is waiting for government policy to come. But we have to look at Tesla not just purely from the EV perspective but from the perspective of how it can build an ecosystem for chip manufacturing.

A Tesla car requires around 2,000 chips. And if they plan to have a production facility to manufacture five lakh cars, think about the ecosystem. Tesla’s storage technology is world-class. So once the government policy gets streamlined, Tesla may come in. But there is no discussion at the moment."

 

[Musskiah]

What I think is happening at present with Sparks is a simple lower capex factory to just produce Semis, not batteries. In addition to lower capex, that should ramp faster.

More Megapack factories in places like the EU and India also seems like a good idea, assuming a reliable cell supply can be locked in.

There is a new building Tesla has purchased/leased close to they Taylor railyard in Texas, slim chance that might also be a Megapack factory one day,.

Between this Panasonic to add new battery production line at Tesla Gigafactory Nevada and Panasonic's 30GWh battery factory in Kansas that was announced in 2022*, I think you are right, the batteries will be there.

From the sound of it, india is negotiating for a Megafactory to be announced with the Gigafactory. It makes sense, they wouldn't want any less factories than China.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

It's the fossil agenda speaking. They don't care about having reduced inflation of EV car prices, pulling battery manufacturing into the US or reducing reliance on Middle East actors. Follow the money. They'd rather see the USA crash and burn than let go of their trillions of profits and subsidies

The most important facts that practically no one seems be aware of rest below.

We will all likely find it mind-blowing that billions among us remain so profoundly clueless and easily fooled by FUD . . .

The fossil fuel industry had ~$11 BILLION in DAILY profits in 2022.

Source:

Oil and gas industry earned $4 trillion last year, says IEA chief

The global oil and gas industry's profits in 2022 jumped to some $4 trillion from an average of $1.5 trillion in recent years, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

For the Top 6 western oil Co's, 2022 generated only a lousy $600 MILLION in DAILY profits.

Source:

Big Oil doubles profits in blockbuster 2022

Big Oil more than doubled its profits in 2022 to $219 billion, smashing previous records in a year of volatile energy prices where Russia's invasion of Ukraine reshaped global energy markets and, in some cases, the industry's climate ambitions.

www.reuters.com

Please share widely because if the intelligent and educated don't ACT (meaning EV's in the garage, solar panels on the roof, and the methane meter removed), then just who the heck do you think will?!?

Long-term: excellent implications for Tesla and TSLA.

Short-term: the fossils will fight tooth and nail, through their proxies, to delay this conversion to a sustainable future. Every day of delay is worth BILLIONS.

The PBS and BBC had a three-part series on this just a year or so ago, well documented with the emails and evidence from those that planned this literally decades ago:

The Power of Big Oil | FRONTLINE

Watch FRONTLINE's three-part documentary examining the fossil fuel industry’s history of casting doubt and delaying action on climate change.

www.pbs.org

 

[MC3OZ]

Short-term: the fossils will fight tooth and nail, through their proxies, to delay this conversion to a sustainable future. Every day of delay is worth BILLIONS.

Keep in mind the Autolline teardown export estimated that the Gen3 process saves 30% on the cost of building a car... That might only be 30% of GA, but it is still a fair chunk of money...

The Tesla China team did a god job on Highland, but so far they haven't produced a compact design that we know about.

It is likely that just having a smaller car with lower quality components isn't an easy path to a $25,000 car, however the BYD Seagull and some other entry level Chinese cars stack up well. MG (SAIC) is also producing good cars at very good prices.

It is likely that the unboxed construction method is better path to a $25,000 car, and in turn that requires, front and rear castings, a structural battery packs, probably 48V, definitely motors without rare-earths, and possibly an 800V architecture for the motors.

The "Holy Grail" for EVs has always been price parity with ICE especially at the entry level.

At least one Chinese car company is copying the unboxed process, others will follow, It is also a good path for an EV start-up, or for a country like India wanting to establish EV production. The problem for low volume production is sourcing the castings, we may see companies that eventually specialise in supplying completed castings to a number of different customers.

Better still, Gen3 production should be lower capex and a faster ramp, especially after it is dialled in at the first factory.

Give customers good entry level EVs at price parity with ICE, the vast majority are smart enough to do the maths on the fuel savings.

Lots of good work is also being done on improving batteries, and lowering costs... by many people, in many countries, couple improving batteries with Gen3 and the EV offerings become even more compelling...

IMO most people don't realise how fast this combination can take market share and drive down global demand for oil.

 

[Musskiah]

Questions...
(1)

Maybe OT here. What’s the quality of TSLA that makes it so options heavy and subject to all the MM dealings? Structurally Couldn’t this happen to any stock?

Is the end of it, like many suggested, when dividends or other ironclad things increase the price of shorting and manufacturing shares?

(2)Why all the short interest since IPO?

ANSWERS...

The most important facts that practically no one seems be aware of rest below.

We will all likely find it mind-blowing that billions among us remain so profoundly clueless and easily fooled by FUD . . .

The fossil fuel industry had ~$11 BILLION in DAILY profits in 2022.

Source:

Oil and gas industry earned $4 trillion last year, says IEA chief

The global oil and gas industry's profits in 2022 jumped to some $4 trillion from an average of $1.5 trillion in recent years, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

For the Top 6 western oil Co's, 2022 generated only a lousy $600 MILLION in DAILY profits.

Source:

Big Oil doubles profits in blockbuster 2022

Big Oil more than doubled its profits in 2022 to $219 billion, smashing previous records in a year of volatile energy prices where Russia's invasion of Ukraine reshaped global energy markets and, in some cases, the industry's climate ambitions.

www.reuters.com

Please share widely because if the intelligent and educated don't ACT (meaning EV's in the garage, solar panels on the roof, and the methane meter removed), then just who the heck do you think will?!?

Long-term: excellent implications for Tesla and TSLA.

Short-term: the fossils will fight tooth and nail, through their proxies, to delay this conversion to a sustainable future. Every day of delay is worth BILLIONS.

The PBS and BBC had a three-part series on this just a year or so ago, well documented with the emails and evidence from those that planned this literally decades ago:

The Power of Big Oil | FRONTLINE

Watch FRONTLINE's three-part documentary examining the fossil fuel industry’s history of casting doubt and delaying action on climate change.

www.pbs.org

Conspiracy Theories...sheesh

 

[Knightshade]

Well according to the last 10-Q they're getting about 5% on T-bills...

Do you believe owning TSLA will offer returns worse than 5% over say the next 12-24 months? If not, why NOT a share buyback instead of "only" getting 5% return on cash they can't otherwise do anything useful with right now?

 

[FlamingPIG]

Finally, 2 weeks is here

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749238533808848962

 

[Iain]

So far Dirtytesla and Whole Mars are claiming big improvement. Hopefully we get to make our own determination soon. Maybe two weeks.

 

[CaliBear1]

To me, "Disruption" is the key word for unlocking the answer.

Sure, it could happen to any stock, but it is easier to hit Tesla as the volatility is being driven by media campaigns championed by those being disrupted by Elon's creations.

There is a long list of the dearly disrupted which, among others, includes:

• Fossil Fuel Energy players, and their supporting industries
• ICE automotive players and their supporting industries
• Advertising companies and their well-developed network of outlets
• Social Media outlets with any specific bias
• News companies with any specific bias

These are the tip of the ICEberg and the greater disruption and transformation toward a world of abundance will impact other players who have depended upon tools like control of the price of energy to dictate technical progress, wealth distribution, and classes of lifestyle.

The potential of the long-term effects of Tesla, and other Musk companies, threatens age-old regimes that have concentrated wealth and progress to be controlled by a plethora of power brokers.

Take a gander at some of the Tony Seba videos on YouTube to get more detail on where the world is headed, why it is headed that way, and then think about who will be affected negatively by such a paradigm shift.

This isn't a conspiracy. It is an affront to a wide variety of players who each are finding they have an axe to grind and will make their subtle attempts to put off their own demise and maintain their station in life.

This leads to Tesla being THE stock most affected, creating an environment where the folks on Wall Street can most easily capitalize on the action that results.

Add to this the rules governing naked shorting and Wally's work becomes easy to accomplish when given a suitable target.

What I do not understand is why the Tesla

To me, "Disruption" is the key word for unlocking the answer.

Sure, it could happen to any stock, but it is easier to hit Tesla as the volatility is being driven by media campaigns championed by those being disrupted by Elon's creations.

There is a long list of the dearly disrupted which, among others, includes:

• Fossil Fuel Energy players, and their supporting industries
• ICE automotive players and their supporting industries
• Advertising companies and their well-developed network of outlets
• Social Media outlets with any specific bias
• News companies with any specific bias

These are the tip of the ICEberg and the greater disruption and transformation toward a world of abundance will impact other players who have depended upon tools like control of the price of energy to dictate technical progress, wealth distribution, and classes of lifestyle.

The potential of the long-term effects of Tesla, and other Musk companies, threatens age-old regimes that have concentrated wealth and progress to be controlled by a plethora of power brokers.

Take a gander at some of the Tony Seba videos on YouTube to get more detail on where the world is headed, why it is headed that way, and then think about who will be affected negatively by such a paradigm shift.

This isn't a conspiracy. It is an affront to a wide variety of players who each are finding they have an axe to grind and will make their subtle attempts to put off their own demise and maintain their station in life.

This leads to Tesla being THE stock most affected, creating an environment where the folks on Wall Street can most easily capitalize on the action that results.

Add to this the rules governing naked shorting and Wally's work becomes easy to accomplish when given a suitable target.

What I do not understand is why the Tesla
Board and/or Elon do not fight Shorty fire with fire. I don't know the exact mechanism, but isn't it possible to create a state of constant fear by occasionally announcing on short notice a special dividend or a small split (fractional so as not to require a vote to issue more shares?) to expose the players of such games? Inflict enough pain and uncertainty to make them take their manipulations and use of the SEC/Madoff exemptions elsewhere.