Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

Waiting, waiting, waiting, driving...

As regards the ramp, Tesla could easily use imported cathodes for tri-motor and range extender, if needed, saving domestic production for AWD.
If I'm reading correctly, the manufacturing credit is not invalidated by use of Chinese components.

I’m looking at more than battery constraints… CT seems to be ramping very slowly - no doubt a lot of teething issues.

 

[mongo]

The post talks about Tesla buying ”cathode rolls.” I interpret that to be the aluminum current collector foil, coated with the cathode minute, and rolled up for shipment. Tesla would use these rolls with anode rolls they made with their dry process, plus the seperator, to make 4680 jelly rolls.

If Tesla could use their dry cathode process to coat the current collector, then they could have just bought the cathode mixture from a supplier until their own cathode plant is operational. However, it was reported that the top-tier battery suppliers refused to sell cathode rolls to Tesla. They only wanted to sell complete battery cells. Perhaps Tesla could not find a supplier of cathode material, and was forced to buy cathode rolls? Not sure, but maybe.

GSP

Agree thry are buying precoated cathodes. Tesla definitely doesn't have the equipment to use 3rd party wet cathode material. Teslas process adds binder to the custom mix.

The item I'm not clear on is if the Austin cathode plant only produces cathode material and the coatingis done at the main plant cell line, or if it produces finished cathode electrodes which are transferred to the cell line for assembly.
Given the roller issues, I wonder a little if part of the adjacent die shop's role is electrode line refurbishment.

 

[FastEddieB]

Though I may pick up a few more shares today, I still feel less confident in that decision.

Just 12 more @ 184.93.

 

[mongo]

I’m looking at more than battery constraints… CT seems to be ramping very slowly - no doubt a lot of teething issues.

Given the multiple parallel item needed, it may be less teething and more that accelerating the ramp just bumps them into a different known bottleneck that has a solution planned which would be ready until time X.
Building fast and stalling on the next bottleneck is less advantageous than going at the rate of the slowest process and keeping buffer in place for unknown problems.
Along with this, building within the surplus capacity of the factory and shipping reduces costs during the lower volume ramp.

 

[Ellec]

Well, he says he will sell CC. So, I don’t think he lost everything…

True, but did he not just say, "Guys while the stock is down I'm not adding, going to sell CC". Ignoring the fact that when the stock is down you should be adding more, he tells Elon to GFY and says he has perpetrated $1T fraud then leaves X. Something doesn't add up, perhaps the CC comment was to save face.

 

[The Accountant]

Look at point #1

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750918316695093377

 

[2daMoon]

I’m looking at more than battery constraints… CT seems to be ramping very slowly - no doubt a lot of teething issues.

What are you comparing the speed of CT's ramp to? (original Roadster, Model S&X, Model 3, Model Y ramps?)

Got any numbers, or is this based only on your feelz?

 

[uscbucsfan]

What are you comparing the speed of CT's ramp to?

Got any numbers, or is this based only on your feelz?

It's based on the company telling us the CT will be an incredibly slow ramp multiple times. From whenever the line started until now we are maybe at 50-60 per day. While that may be fast for a company like Ford, it's slow from Tesla's perspective and the reason why Elon keeps repeating how slow the ramp is/will be.

 

[EVNow]

What are you comparing the speed of CT's ramp to?

Got any numbers, or is this based only on your feelz?

Delivery rate in CTO.

BTW, your tone feelz combative… not looking for a fight.

 

[Ellec]

Look at point #1

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750918316695093377

Historical moment? It was a so so earnings and as per usual overreaction on the stock. They are between two large growth waves, have plenty of cash and exciting products in the pipeline. This is a great opportunity to accumulate shares at a low price before the next leg up.

 

[EVNow]

Look at point #1

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750918316695093377

Analysts are always promoting things that shore up the SP in the short term - never mind long term.

 

[The Accountant]

What's going on here?. I don't think sales of CT will happen in China anytime soon if ever due to regulations.
Is this just a way to display innovation to Chinese consumers? Get buyers in the door?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750887723542384917

 

[uscbucsfan]

What's going on here?. I don't think sales of CT will happen in China anytime soon if ever due to regulations.
Is this just a way to display innovation to Chinese consumers? Get buyers in the door?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750887723542384917

They've been showing CTs in Chinese showrooms for a few weeks. They are touring the country.

Maybe they are hoping to sell it there?

 

[growler23]

Yeah, I have to agree with Gary on this one.

Big time agree. Another Tesla innovation: enough with chasing the QoQ/YoY "guidance", which, as a certain grumpy cat has pointed out, gets ignored at Wall Street's whim, when they want to deploy "failed to meet whisper numbers" against your meeting "guidance".

OT but also slightly related: This whole thing reminds me of the Spurs (San Antonio basketball team, not the soccer one) coach Greg Popovich decided to start admitting that he was keeping his aging star player Tim Duncan out of some games to let his body rest and recover. The sports analysts screamed! The league made indignant statements! The coach (or team, I forget) was fined! "This will ruin the game!"
Within weeks, quietly, every NBA team was letting their stars rest out games every so often and calling it "rest", rather than claiming fake injuries for them as had been the case in the past.
This is now entirely accepted in the league, and everyone wonders what the fuss was about.

Will that happen here, with long term non flash-in-the-pan companies refusing to support the quarterly/yearly churn? What a huge, valuable innovation that might be for long term investors! (Unlikely I know but we can dream)

 

[2daMoon]

It's based on the company telling us the CT will be an incredibly slow ramp multiple times. From whenever the line started until now we are maybe at 50-60 per day. While that may be fast for a company like Ford, it's slow from Tesla's perspective and the reason why Elon keeps repeating how slow the ramp is/will be.

Yeah, but that is what is said on every ramp. i.e.: "Production Hell" and such.

Don't they all start off kinda pokey, then six to twelve months later they start making strides in output?

 

[aubreymcfato]

This is a topic I think this forum should spend some time on and would be of value to all of us.

My gut tells me that this will become the next "competition is coming" scare. I don't think it will so easy for China to make a huge impact outside of Asia soon. They will get there but it will take much longer than people think, imo. I had some exposure/experience in China during my career but it would be great to hear from others on this topic.

Here is why I think the Chinese EV expansion outside of Asia will be slower than expected:
1. To reach huge volumes, manufacturing facilities will need to be established in Europe and North America
2. There are currently not many Chinese huge end to end manufacturing facilities outside of Asia (some in North Africa . . Investments starting in Mexico).
3. Mexico will be key to entering the US market and in Mexico the 3rd Party Supply chain is not comparable to China's supply chain. The auto supply chain is there in Mexico but the Chinese companies will need to establish their supply chain and may find that efficiencies are not like China. China's supply chain network is the best in the world.
4. There will be cultural issues. Often Chinese companies will insert Chinese ex-pats in most of the senior management roles whom are not tuned to the local cultural differences and can create mistrust, frustration and poor performance. A friend of mine that works at a Chinese bank in South America tells me that in management meetings, the conversation at times can move to Mandarin. The ex-pats will speak in Mandarin for 10 min then summarize for the locals with 2 sentences.

China can start with exports but I believe to be a huge threat to Tesla they will need to build manufacturing capacity abroad and this will take time and come with some hiccups.

Please others with thoughts . . . chime in.

Not really worried about other players, but BYD wants to play hard in EU: recently they inaugurated their first RoRo vessel. Allegedly, they are building 7 of them in the next 2 years, each with a 7000 cars capacity.

Top Electric-Car Builder BYD Sends its First Ro/Ro to Europe

In a tight market for ro/ro capacity, China's thriving auto exporters are building or chartering their own vessels to ensure enough space to deliv...

maritime-executive.com

I don't know which models they will start with, and I'm sure they will need to make a name for themselves in EU:
BYD is mostly unknown as a brand. At the same time, if they will come here with a safe, solid 25-ish EV that will sell *very* well. Right now all EVs are in the upper segment of the market, even Renault discontinued the Zoe (which I got at 12k€ with government incentives just few years ago¹).
My worry is that Tesla is not selling their gen3 car in EU for at least two years, giving ample time for BYD to figure it out and smooth their operations, navigating advertising, logistics, tariffs and whatnot.
BYD is not GM and so Bolt-vs-Model 3 comparisons are misplaced, IMO.
Also, I saw a temporary showroom of a MG EV last week at the Milan train station, so Chinese brands are already moving quickly.

1 The battery was rented tho.

 

[The Accountant]

Historical moment? It was a so so earnings and as per usual overreaction on the stock. They are between two large growth waves, have plenty of cash and exciting products in the pipeline. This is a great opportunity to accumulate shares at a low price before the next leg up.

I've been buyback agnostic mainly because the $5B number thrown around doesn't make a dent. But $10B? Maybe.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Yeah, but that is what is said on every ramp. i.e.: "Production Hell" and such.

Don't they all start off kinda pokey, then six to twelve months later they start making strides in output?

Yes, but because the CT is so hard to make (currently), this one is particularly slow.

There are some who assumed they would already be at 1k CTs per week by now, but...it's slower.

 

[ggies07]

I had the same thought. But a couple things come to mind. I believe they said in the call they want to spend $10B in CapEx next year. Ye gads, that's a lot to blow in one year. So suddenly that $29B cash on hand doesn't look so excessive. Or egregious. This sounds to me like the year of planting enough seeds for a MASSIVE harvest.
Second, the US still lags greatly on charging infrastructure. There are 2 aspects to this of course: road trip (DCFC/Superchargers), and L2/overnight chargers. We are so incredibly lacking on L2 charging here that flooding the market with a bunch of EVs that apartment dwellers can afford would create more problems, more actual bad experiences, and overcrowd those chargers that we DO have, making EVERYONEs experience worse. This slows adoption, which hurts the mission.
There is an ideal ratio between increasing car volumes and increasing charging locations. We don't know the ratio, but Tesla has enough data to make a good stab at it, and they likely have.
We have seen some actions from them, reported in this thread.
Tesla has made huge deals in L2 charging in things like hotel chains. They have made software/bookkeeping enhancements to allow big businesses like that to oversee large L2 charger banks. They can't go to every mom & pop apartment complex, but it is worth their time to talk to massive chains, and they have been.
On the DCFC end, they continue to increase the already exponential curve of installations (supercharge.info has a good graph of this), but throwing money at that only goes so far. The major delays seem to be "permitting" and connection to the local grid, which rely on outside-of-Tesla timelines.
TL;DR
Tesla must fight on all fronts at once and in Balance: slow charge, fast charge, vehicle volumes...or things get out of whack and the mission slows.

Valid points and concerns.

 

[EVNow]

Given the multiple parallel item needed, it may be less teething and more that accelerating the ramp just bumps them into a different known bottleneck that has a solution planned which would be ready until time X.
Building fast and stalling on the next bottleneck is less advantageous than going at the rate of the slowest process and keeping buffer in place for unknown problems.
Along with this, building within the surplus capacity of the factory and shipping reduces costs during the lower volume ramp.

Could be … but reading all the reviews etc, CT production seems to have issues.