Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

Elon Musk on X: "The governor is correct that this is a Dojo Supercomputer, but $500M, while obviously a large sum of money, is only equivalent to a 10k H100 system from Nvidia. Tesla will spend more than that on Nvidia hardware this year. The table stakes for being competitive in AI are at… " /X​

Lol, the way that Elon pumps Nvidia, I sure hope he owns a mitt-full of LEAPS on NVDA shares, so he can afford the taxes on his TSLA share options...

Cheers to the LEAPers!

Maybe he does, but we for sure know someone who does. Her first name starts with a N and her last name begins with a P and she has inside info.

 

[Artful Dodger]

More like 29 months, no? Longer still to the river.

...Which river we talking about here??

... the river after the turn, and the flop.

 

[wipster]

X

 

[cab]

Tesla is adding $500M worth of Dojo compute to Giga Buffalo [edit: confirmed Dojo by Elon]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750988656611926260

Man, they are pulling out ALL the stops for a Bills win NEXT year! I assume we will see Josh Allen throwing to an Optimus bot in the offseason...

 

[Artful Dodger]

So we should sell Leaps instead?

For the convenience of Retail investors, the CBOT also accepts cash donations, houses, and lightly-used clothes-off-your-back. See? Better than a Casino! /s

 

[Krugerrand]

It's funny how many of us missed it, (congrats to those who correctly predicted "No guidance"). I can't seem to reveal who voted what, but thinking you (@Artful Dodger) were in the 2.5M camp (or did you change your mind?).

View attachment 1012471

The controversy around this topic today shows me that many dislike stretch goals (even pie in the sky possibilities that help to open up possibilities among the myopic views). Their views are valid but also conservative in a non-conservative company... and not how Elon operates.

Sky is the limit with Tesla - this is a fact they have done the impossible already. In fact, 3M in '24 is actually possible (obviously with .001% probability). Maybe the hyperbolic comments are not so hyperbolic with Tesla, which is NOT Apple or Amazon.

Please consider this when making statements like "0% possibility" or "No way". These comments are even more unrealistic IMHO, borderline patronizing those folks with views that are actually possible.

So it might help in the future to clarify confidence levels. I'm more carefully choosing my own words to describe future states, just because people are so triggered, yes triggered by anything out of the ordinary. And yet Tesla is anything but.

So I'm still with 2.5M for the mission (with ~ 60% confidence), as unlikely as this sounds to most people here. Further, for the trigger people, I think RoboVehicle (not-a-Taxi) is also possible this year with ~5% confidence in a generalized launch, and 25% confidence for a location or use case specific launch. Maybe this type of clarification would help - instead of "Your wrong" etc...

I was one of the no guidance 5.

 

[Krugerrand]

Look at point #1

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750918316695093377

Two faced, slimy, *******, ********, *******!

Not you The Accountant. You’re just a tall, dark, handsome, assassin disguised as a boring, bean counting nerd.

 

[Rarity]

Interesting and solid advice from someone working at Tesla.
Not sure how this somewhat long post will display here on TMC so let me point out some interesting lines:

Do you know what one of the most common words used by business media and equities analysts happens to be? Surprise.
Surprise beat. Surprise miss. Surprise Surprise Surprise.
By no means is this a jab, but typically I am not eager to align my economic interests with a forecaster (another word for guessing, by the way) who is surprised all the time.
If you view equity as truly ownership in a business, which would make you in the 1% of people who operate like this, you should not concerned about daily price action.
If you do not want to own a company for 10+ years, do not own it for 10 minutes.
Think of your % ownership just as if you owned a coffee shop. You will have peaks and valleys but over time (do not get lost in short term noise) if you are a customer centric business that provides a great desirable product, the chance of success long-term is on your side

This is a very good post. He also links to a talk by Li Lu, which goes into some depth about the fact that our job as investors is to hold the minority view and/or operate as the minority do. There is no value in siding with the majority. As the vast majority of the market is focused on the short term and the market itself was built for the majority, we should do the opposite by focusing on the long term and keeping participation in the market to bare minimum.

 

[EVNow]

When has the CT ever been perceived as part of a growth story?

you should check out various things being said and written around CT reveal.

Why would it not be a growth story when it is about the same price as Y and gets a ton of reservations?

 

[wipster]

Big time agree. Another Tesla innovation: enough with chasing the QoQ/YoY "guidance", which, as a certain grumpy cat has pointed out, gets ignored at Wall Street's whim, when they want to deploy "failed to meet whisper numbers" against your meeting "guidance".

OT but also slightly related: This whole thing reminds me of the Spurs (San Antonio basketball team, not the soccer one) coach Greg Popovich decided to start admitting that he was keeping his aging star player Tim Duncan out of some games to let his body rest and recover. The sports analysts screamed! The league made indignant statements! The coach (or team, I forget) was fined! "This will ruin the game!"
Within weeks, quietly, every NBA team was letting their stars rest out games every so often and calling it "rest", rather than claiming fake injuries for them as had been the case in the past.
This is now entirely accepted in the league, and everyone wonders what the fuss was about.

Will that happen here, with long term non flash-in-the-pan companies refusing to support the quarterly/yearly churn? What a huge, valuable innovation that might be for long term investors! (Unlikely I know but we can dream)

But but but then how would we know about all the things we spend our time on second guessing them?

/s... kinda

 

[mongo]

They are using the tesla site for checking for vehicle recalls to find valid VIN's. It's wide open and can be scanned with a macro.

Tesla will likely have a "recaptcha" on this in quick order...but the volumes are low enough it might be able to be done manually.

NHTSA's recall page is just a portal to Tesla. Doubt they will bother with a captcha. (Or does the direct Tesla feed have more listed?)

 

[Rarity]

Elon Musk on X: "The governor is correct that this is a Dojo Supercomputer, but $500M, while obviously a large sum of money, is only equivalent to a 10k H100 system from Nvidia. Tesla will spend more than that on Nvidia hardware this year. The table stakes for being competitive in AI are at least several billion dollars per year at this point. " /X​

Lol, the way that Elon pumps Nvidia, I sure hope he owns a mitt-full of LEAPS on NVDA shares, so he can afford the taxes on his TSLA share options...

Cheers to the LEAPers!

The table stakes for machine learning that Musk mentions are becoming eye-watering. I hope that the cash that the Tesla auto and energy business throws off can keep up. Microsoft is spending $50 billion a year on infrastructure, most of which appears to be going to AI, so it is not a foregone conclusion that Tesla is capable of spending at the right order of magnitude.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Two faced, slimy, *******, ********, *******!

Not you The Accountant. You’re just a tall, dark, handsome, assassin disguised as a boring, bean counting nerd.

Ives was charged and sanctioned by the SEC for securities fraud.

It's baffling that anyone pays him any attention, including CNBC basically having an open invite to have him on.

 

[Singuy]

you should check out various things being said and written around CT reveal.

Why would it not be a growth story when it is about the same price as Y and gets a ton of reservations?

Except it's the price of 2 model Ys..lol.

Tesla just needs to sell 250k of them in order to make the same revenue as 2020 from CT alone.

 

[Todd Burch]

Look at point #1

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750918316695093377

Ives has been such a typical Wall St drama queen the last few days. Disaster? That call on Wednesday was pretty dang mundane. No exciting news, true. But no terrible news either.

Ives is just doing his typical Wall St teet suckling.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I hope that the cash that the Tesla auto and energy business throws off can keep up. Microsoft is spending $50 billion a year on infrastructure

Indeed, I hope Elon is sandbagging the DOJO hardware business until such time as we're ready to enter the market as competitors in this high-margin business.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Today, Joe Tegtmeyer published his estimate for 2024 CT production: 105K (ramp included):

Joe's Cybertruck Productio nRamp Run Rate.2024-01-26 | 2024-01-26 (1-hr ago)

Cheers!

 

[2daMoon]

you should check out various things being said and written around CT reveal.

You could have been more specific that you weren't actually referencing anything officially mentioned by Tesla folk.

Perhaps not all of us take scuttlebutt around the water cooler as Tesla gospel.

Why would it not be a growth story when it is about the same price as Y and gets a ton of reservations?

Maybe because they didn't plan to simultaneously build manufacturing on three continents for the CT might have been a clue.

 

[insaneoctane]

The table stakes for machine learning that Musk mentions are becoming eye-watering. I hope that the cash that the Tesla auto and energy business throws off can keep up. Microsoft is spending $50 billion a year on infrastructure, most of which appears to be going to AI, so it is not a foregone conclusion that Tesla is capable of spending at the right order of magnitude.

I guess that's why NVDA has been such a good play....

 

[The Accountant]

Not you The Accountant. You’re just a tall, dark, handsome, assassin disguised as a boring, bean counting nerd.

Pocket Protector