How amazing it is that when Elon started the DOJO project most the people didn't even realize the next few years a chip company will gain +1T in valuation for chips that DOJO is trying to do better and cheaper, because he could see where the puck is going?
I remember when people were laughing at the possibility of Tesla making a foundry, but now with Optimus and xAI, maybe that was not a really crazy idea?
What else was Elon talking about in the last year? What is the next major stuff the majority don't realize will be a major problem/opportunity in the next 2 years?
He said this last year:
"My prediction is we will go from an extreme silicon shortage today, to probably a voltage transformer shortage in a year, and then an electricity shortage in a year into two years".
Yeah, we all know he's not great at timing, but he's generally right.
Electricity shortage sounds scary.
This and some of the responses are useful but are really missing the enormity of the issues that are present now. In part those issues are reflected in some commodity prices, but need a long term view to really know what has happened already:
One example, Copper:
copper-prices-historical-chart-data-2024-01-28-macrotrends.png
Another example:
Some of the most vulnerable communities in the U.S. live in places that are particularly prone to frequent, prolonged power outages
www.scientificamerican.com
Still another example, from yesterday:
In Portuguese from O Globo this morning ( translation):
"At least 15 thousand homes and businesses in the Copacabana neighborhood were without electricity for almost 12 hours yesterday. The situation was not normalized until 19: 45. According to Light, the problem was caused by theft of cables from the company's underground network, which ended up causing, according to the concessionaire, overload in the system, especially in points on Santa Clara, Figueiredo de Magalhães and Siqueira Campos streets, in addition to Avenida Nossa Senhora de Copacabana and stretches of Barata Ribeiro Street and Peixoto neighborhood. Internet connections were also disrupted and traffic signals stopped working.
"The overload caused by the theft of cables caused the burning of cables and extensive damage to the electrical network. Because it is an underground network, the defects are not apparent and the company needs to carry out several tests to correct the failures”.
In a condominium on Santa Clara Street, residents reported that transformers in the building exploded around 8 a.m., as a result of the breakdown in the neighborhood. After that, fire officials cordoned off the building. Videos also showed heavy smoke billowing from a manhole at the corner of Figueiredo de Magalhães and Tonelero streets. Light reported that even after repairs to restore power in this part of the neighborhood, the building would still remain without power because the theft caused a short circuit and the burning of a transformer..."
As all of us know there are vastly increasing power outages in the entire world brought about by demand fluctuations caused by climate change which combine with aging infrastructure, including old technology grids.
There are also the periodic infrastructure failures due to voltage transformer failures and the
already evident voltage transformer shortages.
Here, for reference is the generic power grid as described in a US-centric view:
ElecPwr_HSW.html
"...In order to cope with the power transmission challenges, China’s government put forward its “Power Transmission from the West to the East” plan in 2005, which stipulated the development of a new 1000 kV UHVAC and ±800 kV UHVDC transmission system. These were expected to increase the power transfer capacity through three important transmission corridors, i.e., the north, mid, and south. With the ascent of renewable energy, this challenge has further increased as – unlike coal – hydro, wind or solar power needs to be transported through long-distance transmission lines from source to end consumer. To this end, China has been installing ultra-high voltage power lines in recent years. These lines transmit energy at 800,000 volts and above, double the voltage of conventional high-voltage lines, allowing them to transmit up to
five times more electricity at minimal energy loss. The first UHV line came into operation in 2009 and the system has been expanded to a current network of 31 lines and another 7 lines in the planning over the next 5 years."
The State Grid Corporation and the China Southern Power Grid Corporation China today operates on two wide area synchronous grids: the State Grid in the North and China Southern Power Grid in the South. The grids are operated by two respectively named grid operating companies. China’s electric...
www.climatescorecard.org
Those approaches show the enormous efficiency brought by higher transmission voltages, which also have serious technical and operating challenges.
All of that is part of Elon's "voltage transformer" statement with massive shift in automotive and industrial switch to higher transmission voltages and better technologies.
Bizarrely, perhaps, all that ties quite directly to the long term copper price rises and, perhaps equally serious, supply imbalances. Global grid instability and rapid adoption of wind and solar generates enormous demand for more robust solutions, all fo them increasing demand for energy storage to intermediate supply, demand and distribution imbalances.
Elon knows all this intimately, perhaps more viscerally than anyone other than J B Straubel, who has preached diligently on these subjects since ~2008, and probably before he acquired the TSLA megaphone.
Every part of that is critical to Elon's outlook and Tesla's mission. Every part of that is essential.
FWIW, the Chinese State Grid is pursuing these goals too, and is doing so in obscurity. In the beginning of this post there was yesterday's theft-fomented Copacabana power outage. Just think about that, and weather related outages nearly global in scope, plus repeated energy distribution and generation disasters.
"My prediction is we will go from an extreme silicon shortage today, to probably a voltage transformer shortage in a year, and then an electricity shortage in a year into two years".
This time Elon predicted the past. he's good at that even when nearly all of the world misses the point.
The best way to predict the future is to invent it
as Mark Twain, a Danish proverb and several more said: "it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future". The corollary "The best way to predict the future is to invent it" is credited to Alan Kay when he was at PARC (look him up, we owe him much of our thanks).
That then establishes Elon's core values. As we consider all this in the context of shareholder value we should be cognizant that only by what Elon calls "Fist Principles" thinking can a sound future be realized.
For those who believe all this, HODL is necessary to realize our own need for a "dear life" to happen at all.
I'm old, for me the Alan Kay era was part of my daily euphoria working with SRI (aka: Stanford research Institute. I learned there that the unimaginable was a limitation of imagination, not reality.
Elon has many seemingly 'throwaway lines' that actually summarize profound realities. This was one such.
It's time for me to allocate some more money to TSLA.
), I believe it appropriate to learn all we can of the pervasiveness of auto dealers in the halls of our state and federal lawmaking bodies.”
