Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ellec]

I admit there are times I question myself holding TSLA long. Yes I'm fairly confident TSLA will be worth much more in 5-10 years than it is today, but I also admit I could be wrong about that too. Elon could die suddenly and Tesla could fall apart. The competition might finally arrive and slowly bury Tesla into submission. Optimus might not work out. FSD might never get solved. The Gen3 Tesla could be a failure.

Nothing is guaranteed, investing always has risks even when you are confident in a positive outcome. I doubt the Tesla Economist believed he'd lose it all when he invested his way, maybe my way of simply holding long will be wrong too? Maybe we'll never see $415 per share again and we're all fooling ourselves. I don't think we are, but then I don't have a crystal ball either.

All I can do is act given the information I have before me and make a best educated guess, and for today everything points me towards Tesla becoming the largest company by market cap in the world within a decade, and thus I'm holding. Hopefully I'm not wrong about that.

Yes, I am in agreement, even being long TSLA with just shares is a risk. For me it's worth it for the journey, it keeps me interested in the company and I think they have a good chance of executing. I believe you need to try and be happy in the present moment (Journey) as that's most of life, if Tesla failed and went bankrupt I would loose a lot but still have my health and an income so would be fine. The cause of Tesla is important to me I couldn't invest in a company just to make money if it had a negative impact on the world, so supporting them to get to 100% EV's is another reason to keep invested.

 

[Ellec]

Reportedly quite a few Tesla employees followed similar tactics with similar results. For as long as there ahem been tradable securities there ahem been speculators who lost it all, from tulip mania to even earlier.
Bluntly and sadly, people never seem to learn from the errors of the past.

Even now people here ar blindly walking towards disaster even knowing history. Some people gamble with slot machines too. The slimiest of all are the ones who imagine they can actually emulate the success fo 'the house'. Cannot do that without inside information, even then it's very tricky.

This is true, even if you had information the public didn't you can't predict how the market will react to that information.

 

[thx1139]

Because of misinformation campaigns like his.

And this is why my wife and I on Saturday decided to sell all of our TSLA, which is about $3M worth. His spewing factually incorrect conspiracy theories about great replacement theory and election fraud was the last straw. TSLA isnt going anywhere the next couple years with slowed ramps and new products being at least a year off. Luckily all of our holdings in IRA accounts so no capital gains from the decade of holding TSLA stock. Even if I thought Elon would change I dont see TSLA outperforming our other key holdings.

 

[mongo]

Reportedly quite a few Tesla employees followed similar tactics with similar results. For as long as there ahem been tradable securities there ahem been speculators who lost it all, from tulip mania to even earlier.
Bluntly and sadly, people never seem to learn from the errors of the past.

Even now people here ar blindly walking towards disaster even knowing history. Some people gamble with slot machines too. The slimiest of all are the ones who imagine they can actually emulate the success fo 'the house'. Cannot do that without inside information, even then it's very tricky.

The post in which mongo goes off-brand (and I've taken so long to write this it looks like a pile on , which it's not meant to be)

Spoiler: so feel free to skip

You can lose just as much money holding as with options. It's all in position size/ risk.

Call it paper gains, but for those with tax deferred accounts, 400 to 180 is a pure >50% loss, just as much as selling all stock, putting half one's cash into options, and having them expire worthless would be. Holding is rebuying in place without taxes.

If TSLA goes $100 again and stays there, if FSD doesn't pay off in the next X years, if, if, if, will our depleted accounts be any better having had stock losses vs option losses? Will Martin send us Christmas cards?

Say TSLA goes up. Holding is still just "paper gains". The only return on investment comes from selling shares (unless dividend). Curt was smart, took some gains, bought a house. Seriously, kudos to him.

*not advice*
Via selling call options, one can take a route that has two outcomes:
1. Stock stays below the strike price: one pockets the option premium and can use it to buy more TSLA or dinner
2. Stock goes above the strike: well, you have the premium, but you've also sold shares at a lower price than you could have. Guess what? That's already true, and there is nothing to show for it.

Illustrative example, *not advise*
Want to guarantee 5%(ish) return for the next two years? Sell 340 strikes for Jan 2026. Roughly 10% cash return today. Total returns capped at 94% over two years. Is that worse than holding if the stock goes above $380 (adjusting for 10% cost of living sales)? Sure, but it's better than just holding if the stock is under that price. Both hold and sold calls are vad choices if TSLA is down more than 10% at that point.

 

[Knightshade]

Would be nice, but I've tried the tesla.com/tradein page to get the trade-in value of my 2017 Model S with FSD (and FUSC) on 2/3, 2/4 (around mid-day) and just now (after 10PM PST on 2/4). Same result every time. The trade-in value is $20,300 (wow, that's low!) and it says "Includes value of Full Self-Driving"

Interestingly since you had the link right there I checked mine... 2018, but a 3 LR AWD (also with FSD, but no FUSC) and it's $20,800.

 

[Ellec]

And this is why my wife and I on Saturday decided to sell all of our TSLA, which is about $3M worth. His spewing factually incorrect conspiracy theories about great replacement theory and election fraud was the last straw. TSLA isnt going anywhere the next couple years with slowed ramps and new products being at least a year off. Luckily all of our holdings in IRA accounts so no capital gains from the decade of holding TSLA stock. Even if I thought Elon would change I dont see TSLA outperforming our other key holdings.

Bold move, you could be right. How will you feel if the stock doubles or triples over the next few years? 3-6 million left on the table? Im not saying that will happen but would be something you need to be ok with I would imagine.

 

[CitizenKane]

Well if you haven't noticed, immigration is a huge concern for the majority of the country, it's currently the #1 concern among voters, 81% of Republicans, 68% of independents and 45% of Democrats say conditions at the border are worsening. So Elon is not expressing some controversial view here, his tweets are in broad agreement with the sentiment of most Americans.

How does it benefit Tesla that Musk picks a side in this? If this is indeed the most important US political issue, there must be some people among the 19% republicans, 32% independents and 55% democrats who feel very strongly that Musk is totally wrong. Free speech doesn't mean you are forced to let the world know about all your opinions. Most CEOs get that they have fiduciary duties and therefore are reluctant to be very opinionated. I am not necessarily a fan of Jamie Dimon but when he in a recent interview asked people not to vilify political opponents but instead try to understand opposing views, that was an excellent example of how you communicate in a way that benefits the company that you lead.

 

[Ellec]

How does it benefit Tesla that Musk picks a side in this? If this is indeed the most important US political issue, there must be some people among the 19% republicans, 32% independents and 55% democrats who feel very strongly that Musk is totally wrong. Free speech doesn't mean you are forced to let the world know about all your opinions. Most CEOs get that they have fiduciary duties and therefore are reluctant to be very opinionated. I am not necessarily a fan of Jamie Dimon but when he in a recent interview asked people not to vilify political opponents but instead try to understand opposing views, that was an excellent example of how you communicate in a way that benefits the company that you lead.

Maybe Elon is worried that with lots of immigrants willing to work for low wages it will devalue the potential for Optimus.

 

[thx1139]

Bold move, you could be right. How will you feel if the stock doubles or triples over the next few years? 3-6 million left on the table? Im not saying that will happen but would be something you need to be ok with I would imagine.

You make the assumption the $3M doesnt grow in other stocks. Last chunk of cash we had we put into NVDA. Would have been nice to have cashed out TSLA then and put in NVDA. Its a couple things. Does anyont think TSLA will do anything substantial before the sub $30K model is ramping? I dont and honestly I dont trust Elon on dates any longer. The only vehicle they have made dates on was the Y. Now does that mean the sub $30K model wont arrive? No. Will it arrive late 2025? I say not likely. So we can put our $ in something like an SP Index Fund or spread out against our other main holdings and likely do rather well waiting for TSLA to be primed to do something again.

 

[thx1139]

How does it benefit Tesla that Musk picks a side in this? If this is indeed the most important US political issue, there must be some people among the 19% republicans, 32% independents and 55% democrats who feel very strongly that Musk is totally wrong. Free speech doesn't mean you are forced to let the world know about all your opinions. Most CEOs get that they have fiduciary duties and therefore are reluctant to be very opinionated. I am not necessarily a fan of Jamie Dimon but when he in a recent interview asked people not to vilify political opponents but instead try to understand opposing views, that was an excellent example of how you communicate in a way that benefits the company that you lead.

It not just that he picks a side its what he presents. He has been saying the immigrants are being let in to vote for Biden. He pushed that mail in ballots arent tied to a voter so you can just fill them out and send them in through ballot harvesting. He isnt even educating himself on how mail in ballots even work.

 

[mongo]

Bold move, you could be right. How will you feel if the stock doubles or triples over the next few years? 3-6 million left on the table? Im not saying that will happen but would be something you need to be ok with I would imagine.

At some point, the joy and pain just become numbness.
If they're long term holders, they've already left 3 million on the table from ATH.
We need 50% gains just to get back to the end of last year. @thx1139 is down over a million from that point.
If someone offered you a million dollars, but you had to sell all your TSLA would you do it? What about the 3 million that are left?

 

[phantasms]

Maybe Elon is worried that with lots of immigrants willing to work for low wages it will devalue the potential for Optimus.

I find it hysterical that one of Musks many "the biggest threat to humanity" is population collapse and yet people coming into the country is also the biggest threat.

 

[scaesare]

Some rumors that the first CT packs are not good, which is obvious, but not from reliable sources

Define "good".

If the charging curve is not what is expected/wanted, how do we know Tesla is not starting conservatively, as they have with other new designs?

 

[phantasms]

It not just that he picks a side its what he presents. He has been saying the immigrants are being let in to vote for Biden. He pushed that mail in ballots arent tied to a voter so you can just fill them out and send them in through ballot harvesting. He isnt even educating himself on how mail in ballots even work.

Thank you. I deleted my X account because the insanity of Elon was too stressful. I already dropped 2/3 of shares back when we were full bubble but will exit the rest.

Why oh why doesn't anyone else make a fantastic EV?

 

[wtlloyd]

I just don't get this Cult of the Leader thinking. Elon is remarkable, he has done so much to make Tesla what it is. But the company is 130,000 (and counting) people on 4 continents. Why does it all boil down to one guy?
Weird.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1754393055279427732

 

[SOULPEDL]

Thank you. I deleted my X account because the insanity of Elon was too stressful. I already dropped 2/3 of shares back when we were full bubble but will exit the rest.

Why oh why doesn't anyone else make a fantastic EV?

You don't seem to be the type to HODL Tesla. Got it, this is not for everyone.
So then just sell it and buy some AMD, but why keep complaining here?

 

[Ellec]

You make the assumption the $3M doesnt grow in other stocks. Last chunk of cash we had we put into NVDA. Would have been nice to have cashed out TSLA then and put in NVDA. Its a couple things. Does anyont think TSLA will do anything substantial before the sub $30K model is ramping? I dont and honestly I dont trust Elon on dates any longer. The only vehicle they have made dates on was the Y. Now does that mean the sub $30K model wont arrive? No. Will it arrive late 2025? I say not likely. So we can put our $ in something like an SP Index Fund or spread out against our other main holdings and likely do rather well waiting for TSLA to be primed to do something again.

No not assuming that, Im just saying Tesla has a lot of potential growth, however what you do with your investment is your business and I kind agree there is nothing on the horizon till 2026. For me it's going to be accumulating while the price is depressed and my average is around the price now, so the longer it stays down the better for my plan, but I can see for those who bought higher or have seen their account up then down up it's unpleasant, but I also know the valuation can be unpredictable and they could have a surprise strong quarter and set the stock flying up again.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Interesting bit of trivia- 3 years ago today Tesla had a market cap 2.777x Nvidia. Today Nvidia has a market cap 2.77x Tesla.

 

[Unpilot]

No not assuming that, Im just saying Tesla has a lot of potential growth, however what you do with your investment is your business and I kind agree there is nothing on the horizon till 2026. For me it's going to be accumulating while the price is depressed and my average is around the price now, so the longer it stays down the better for my plan, but I can see for those who bought higher or have seen their account up then down up it's unpleasant, but I also know the valuation can be unpredictable and they could have a surprise strong quarter and set the stock flying up again.

IF I ever sell my TSLA I promise to then stop posting here.

No plan to do that, but if I get out, I will have no need to post about my exit.