Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Thank you. I deleted my X account because the insanity of Elon was too stressful. I already dropped 2/3 of shares back when we were full bubble but will exit the rest.

Why oh why doesn't anyone else make a fantastic EV?

Fantastic. What a great day it is. Now two people got off the pot. I look forward to the significant decrease of negativity in the forum now.

 

[Big Time]

Spoiler alert: I will become a male gigalo/male bimbo(mimbo) instead of selling a small portion of Tsla to achieve my financial goals this May! Bummer but perhaps better in the long run(except perhaps the stds)
Plz call 1-800-327-SPANK or DM me places to get small (10K) low APR loans.

Good luck all, I’ll in Vegas for Super Bowl(working/soon to be working girlish) so this will be a great place to try out the new Spank Machina.

Viva la revolution

 

[Mengy]

You make the assumption the $3M doesnt grow in other stocks. Last chunk of cash we had we put into NVDA. Would have been nice to have cashed out TSLA then and put in NVDA. Its a couple things. Does anyont think TSLA will do anything substantial before the sub $30K model is ramping? I dont and honestly I dont trust Elon on dates any longer. The only vehicle they have made dates on was the Y. Now does that mean the sub $30K model wont arrive? No. Will it arrive late 2025? I say not likely. So we can put our $ in something like an SP Index Fund or spread out against our other main holdings and likely do rather well waiting for TSLA to be primed to do something again.

While I disagree (mostly) with your feelings about Elon, I do agree with your assumption about TSLA over the next year or two. I also don't think our stock is going to do so well, not until Gen3 is in production and selling, which will likely be two years away from today at the earliest. If TSLA breaks above $300 over the next two years I'd be ecstatic about it.

That said, I'm not selling a single share of TSLA, because this stock is terribly volatile and even though I don't believe it will happen, the stock could very well go over $415 later in 2024 too. There are too many positives on the "near" horizon for Tesla and we don't know when any of them are going to hit.

While part of me thinks selling my TSLA and holding NVDA could be a better investment strategy, then waiting to buy back into TSLA when a super catalyst hits, my knowledge and experience tells me it's just easier and smarter to simply HOLD and wait out the slump. Thankfully I can afford to wait.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Yah. Agreed. Tesla is a great company that has achieved some great things. But as an investment it’s done until Elon is no longer with the company. His focus now is politics and social media. Nothing wrong with that if that’s what he wants to do with his life but shareholders and investors deserve a CEO who is focussed on the task.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see double digit share prices over the next year (in which case we might jump in for a few again). But I think regardless of how good the company performs going forward, as long as he is associated with the company the stock will just languish. A lot of people are nervous investing in a company run by an unstable genius who doesn’t care about money.

Jmho.

Elon is the best at ungluing blocks. If no major blocks, he can do other things, if Tesla hits major problems that others struggle with, he'll dive in.

 

[Richard007]

On sale! Could not resist -will be above $200 sooner than later and this trade pays for some dinners.

 

[thx1139]

"This thread has been infected by the woke mind virus" - Elon Musk, probably.

And Elon has been infected by the Broke Mind Virus

 

[Knightshade]

See... this is where the argument just falls apart.
Elon tweets maybe 10 times a day. Sometimes all 10 are politics. Sometimes.
Show me the 200 tweet rampage within 24 hours.
This is wall-st-journal/business-insider level exaggeration.

I think the math people miss here is in order to have spent a couple minutes a tweet replying 10 times he had to have spent a lot more time reading tweets to find 10 worth replying to.

For what has become an increasingly generous definition of "worth replying to" given how large a % of what he replies to contains...less than entirely factual... arguments or claims.

I guess some might be happy he's not wasting even more time fact checking before replying to something

 

[SOULPEDL]

In for 100 @ $175.25, oh well...only lose if you sell. This will pass eventually.

Next stop was set for 172 for 50 more.
Remembering it's Monday. Can't wait for Tuesday.

 

[thx1139]

I'm down about $2.5m from ATH. I am fine with that. TSLA moves in unpredictable ways. I do not want to risk missing the next run up.
Optimus, FSD and things that could change the stock in a heartbeat. A reveal of model 2 could do the same. Elon has zero interest in forewarning people who are not investors.

So what do you think is the catalyst that could drive a 2x, 3x change? Right now 2x doesnt even put us back where it was a couple years ago. Reveal of model 2 isnt going to cause a rapid appreciation. We know it is coming, I say likely post 2025. Honestly why would you trust dates at all with Elon?

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Serious question, is Elon Musk selling? I have seen this much of a dip since Elon was selling stock for twitter.

 

[Krugerrand]

Why are we breaking down again.
Elons drug issues?
Any new negative information?
Loss of confidence in Elon?

Just go back and reread postings from Dec 2022. Same thing happening now.

People fear money. They fear having it, they fear losing it, they fear not having it at all. Money is at the center of who they are, who they want to be, who they were (status). People have always looked to externalities like money in which to judge themselves and others, in which to feel safe and secure. And the people having a lot of feels right now.

 

[elasalle]

Serious question, is Elon Musk selling? I have seen this much of a dip since Elon was selling stock for twitter.

Yes Elon is selling 500K Tesla's this quarter ...

China numbers tomorrow ...

 

[Stretch2727]

Did not see this posted with the full picture for EU. January sales for 2023 9492 so 2024 is an 88% increase over last January.

As we have learned over the years focusing on sales from one country (i.e Germany for this January) is not really representative. There are just too many variations within one country (gov't incentives, supply, weather, etc) that can affect sales.

 

[Krugerrand]

I complain because this is an amazing company with an amazing future and amazing people but dear leader spends more time diving head first into culture wars. I've been HODL for many years and saw over 20x but let's be honest anyone who with pride says "I never sold a single share" after we just went through [and in think are still in to some degree] a huge bubble should be kicking themselves. Holding tulips the entire time wasn't the winning more. NFA lol. Does the stock eventually go much higher? Sure. When it gets to double digits I'll buy in again.

Please don’t, but at least we all know it’s really just about the money for you. Nothing wrong with being just about the money. You’re part of a big club. But now people can know that everything you say is clearly about what you want to line your pocket.

 

[Usain]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1754393055279427732

I expect this sort of policy to be replicated with more stringency and more urgency all over the world.

The latest climate data is not encouraging. Our response so far is also not encouraging. While we are doing some things right, we aren't doing it fast enough.

As more nations and their citizens become increasingly worried about the climate crisis, the proposed solutions will become more draconian. Tesla will be one of the companies to cash in. Think of it as the IRA on steroids, but all over the world.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Did not see this posted with the full picture for EU. January sales for 2023 9492 so 2024 is an 88% increase over last January.

As we have learned over the years focusing on sales from one country (i.e Germany for this January) is not really representative. There are just too many variations within one country (gov't incentives, supply, weather, etc) that can affect sales.View attachment 1015569

Yep. Still positive, to be honest. In January you also have more headwinds than not, so this number look promising. Smaller countries are upping their Tesla game.

 

[SOULPEDL]

So what do you think is the catalyst that could drive a 2x, 3x change? Right now 2x doesnt even put us back where it was a couple years ago. Reveal of model 2 isnt going to cause a rapid appreciation. We know it is coming, I say likely post 2025. Honestly why would you trust dates at all with Elon?

OK, don't laugh, V12 can operate without occupants is just one way to juice it. On Valentine's Day would be cute.

That or that suddenly cars can charge 1.5x the rate, or any of the other amazing tricks waiting in the wings. Stick around, it's primed. Tesla is holding a lot of unreleased tech at the moment. It's intentionally being down-played, my opinion and prediction.

 

[AndrewZ]

TSLA has sucked lately, but many EV stocks have sucked of late as well. Rivian, for example, is down 4.78% right now. I think the lack of proposed interest rate cuts is weighing heavily on the industry among other things.

The Fed hasn’t even changed their stance, it’s the market that is unrealistically overoptimistic.

Even when rates do come down to any significant degree, which likely won’t happen without first experiencing actual economic pain and labour market loosening, it’s possible they don’t come down to what people hope and that the neutral rate today is simply higher. The Fed had already ratcheted up rates to mid 2% before COVID hit, but it’s like people are anticipating going right back down to 0% — it might be more like 3-4%, numbers seem pretty strong even at current rate levels and there’s still a ton of money flying around.

I’d say the autos market is also particularly badly positioned because auto prices are in the inflation metrics most closely monitored by the Fed and influenced by policy rates, so the idea profits will go back up because the Fed will cut rates and allow rampant auto price inflation does not seem grounded in reality. Rates coming down and prices for things like autos staying down are mutually inclusive, and rates won’t come down until the Fed is sure we won’t see another ‘80s style inflationary spike back up in things like auto prices.

 

[Usain]

You seem to keep misunderstanding the points people are correcting you on about how any of this works and instead replacing them with arguments nobody ever made to instead be mad about.

Literally nobody said end to end will "never work"

But several folks have corrected your misunderstandings on how training is done, how and why regressions happen, problems causable by overfitting, and a number of other factors you appear to be unware of despite having a thesis you claim is largely based on FSD progress.


Again though there's an entire section of these forums devoted to folks discussing this stuff- given how deeply rooted in FSD progress your investment thesis is you might want to check it out instead of just insisting everyone else is wrong.

I'm certainly not mad. I think you are the only one who has directly challenged my thesis. And I'll point out that I've gotten a lot of likes as well.

I do want to test my thesis, which depends on a soonish rollout of robotaxi. So sure, I'll meet you at

FSD V12 (end to end AI)​

I don't have time to post there right now, but I will soon.

 

[Krugerrand]

Elon is upsetting people, in various ways:- politically charged subjects, taken out of context quotes or implied beliefs.

Great posts by you today. Just highlighting this in particular. He’s not just upsetting people, he’s upsetting powerful people. He’s upsetting the status quo. He’s upsetting comfortable people. He’s upsetting rigid people. He’s challenging absolutely every single human habit in a way that requires people to make a stand, come together, or die.