Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[larmor]

Its fair to be disappointed with the TSLA stock the last few years. Let be honest, when we were at $400 nobody expected us to be here. None of expected twitter to get involved, or elon to have to sell so many. None of us expected cybertruck to take this long, or FSD. We all thought semi would be in mass production by now.

But you know what? This happens all the time. Prediction is hard.

Nobody expected in 2024 for Apple to still not have their car released. Nobody thought the vision pro would be that expensive, or initial production so low. Everyone thought that yup, even if you COULD re-use a falcon 9 booster, it wouldn't be for a whole 10 re-launches. Beyond that was mad. Nobody thought it would take THIS long for toyota to have an EV. Nobody thought Tesla would start making humanoid robots...

The prediction business is a nightmare. But it goes both ways. I would NEVER have thought the Y would outsell the 3. I would never have thought optimus would make progress so fast. I never thought a car as pricey as the Y would be the global best seller.

Years ago, when I bought my largest TSLA stake, I was betting on the Tesla semi, the roadster and the cybertruck. This is not what I got.
I got a (late) cybertruck, finally some decent FSD progress, an impressive ramp of megapacks, Dojo and optimus.

On balance, I am happy with the deal. Roadster was niche anyway, and semi will be great, but wall st will ignore it anyway. In the medium to long term, FSD and optimus may become a very big deal. Model 2 is always around the corner. Sure, I could sell all my TSLA and gamble on tech stocks for the next six months and re-evaluate. But elon is elon. You never know whats coming next. For all we know the next tweet is a video of the Tesla Van, the Tesla boat, the Tesla plane. I wouldn't rule anything out with this company. Thats half the fun .

Production is hard, but the pathway to make it profitable is improving. Seemingly ignored in the all media outlets (obviously) and unheralded after many recent CC was the concept of a new production method, making the large sub assemblies in different locations. This would presume fewer parts as well to complement a more efficient production.

Additionally, the pathway to FSD is now clear, use compute power to learn from videos of actual driving and then have FSD mimic. So simple lane changes and merges are all accounted for as well as complex merging in highways and super packed roads in Turkey, Pakistan, India, basically everywhere else can now just be learned instead of hard coding.

The robot is only a natural extension of this learning process and making small actuators and sensors.

So TSLA remains disconnected from Tesla for no apparent reason, because most equities are based on future growth, future products and complete pivot shifts, such as apple from the apple II to ipod to apple subscription of software and hardware.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Also Tesla does this lay off spree of ~10% every year.

Indeed, years ago Elon referred to this as 'scraping the barnacles'. I wonder how this will work in Germany? Labor laws there are quite different from Tesla's other facilities.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1755352232109764806

Tesla buying seats (just M3P Highland?) from Gentherm or maybe just the tech?
Climate & Comfort

 

[Artful Dodger]

I never saw the 1 cent/KWh.

I really hope it's true. But I don't see that on anything official. Did I just miss it?

That's from Tesla. I'll direct you to their Commercial Charging webpage for the program details.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Troys production data is based on DMV VIN registrations and to my knowledge has turned out to be extremely accurate historically... the # was VIN data through Feb 5 so it's not just first week of Jan or something.

He discusses it more a bit here with historical examples of Y and 3 production at specific factories (since VIN tells you that too)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1754747423669276849

FWIW that's my memory as well.. .the 75% number was a pre-production guess and everyone not-Tesla just kept repeating it after production kicked off-- only when someone did an actual teardown did they find the % much lower-- but people still go back and repeat the 75% figure anyway.

Right. Joe's counting of vehicles is no way near as accurate as the Tesla registered VINs. The VINs have always been what people used to track M3, MS/X, MY AWD production. Again, the VINs are registered prior to production.

The CT is a slow ramp and will continue to be this year...compared to what bulls think. They are still selling Foundation Series and many don't believe they will deliver any non-Foundation series this year. Many are predicting between 30k (low) and 80k (high) deliveries this year. The number will likely fall in the middle, but still fast compared to Ford and others ramp.

It's a small overall number to Tesla this year and Elon has stated that multiple times.

 

[Maarten]

If real people then yes, some of them do get paid. Another part of the real folks have interest in everything but Tesla so they hate and do FUD.

The problem is that most of FUD is programmatically generated. Bots, fake media sites, fake articles, fake accounts. This is much harder to control. The average joe reads FUD because they don't know and don't care.

Like above, I frequently observe that your posts are more intelligent than your avatar suggests.

 

[mongo]

Again, the VINs are registered prior to production.

Do we have proof of that timing? VINs active via recall search are sourced live from Tesla's servers, there is no registration process. As such, they need not activate the entry until the vehicle is ready for shipment/ delivery.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Do we have proof of that timing? VINs active via recall search are sourced live from Tesla's servers, there is no registration process. As such, they need not activate the entry until the vehicle is ready for shipment/ delivery.

Yes.

There's plenty on the process but Tesla creates the VINs immediately before production. I'll go find sources, but this has been covered on the CT forum, MY AWD tracking, and other places.

I'll add that the M3 and MY AWD VIN tracker was almost dead on from when Tesla release production numbers (outside of 1Q from the M3). It's always been the most accurate way to track Tesla production and why so many are using it for the CT.

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/teslas-cybertruck-vin-activation-tracker-not-customer-vin-allocations.8989/

Tesla Model 3 Tracker

Bloomberg News is asking Tesla Model 3 owners about initial customer experiences to follow how the electric car holds up over time.

www.bloomberg.com

A VIN is a unique string of letters and numbers assigned to every vehicle manufactured in the U.S. First, we gathered batches of VINs that Tesla registers with safety regulators prior to production (Registered VINs Model).

 

[Maarten]

Um. Two things, and then I'll stop.

First: If you read @Papafox's postings, it's very clear that there are forces inimical to Tesla. @Papafox's usual diatribes are about market makers and hedge funds who do naked shorting for a living.

The interesting bit about that is that, over time, it's been reported over and over again that the shortsellers have lost money. Ridiculous amounts of same. If that's true.. then where is the money coming from? Hold that thought for a bit.

Second: I'm a refugee from the tesla.com forums, which closed down in 2019 or so. And the way it closed down was more than a bit instructive. There were posters who were clearly pump-and-dump short sellers, who would come in, say something utterly horrid about Tesla, then Never Be Seen Again. It got to be that they were almost always recognizable.

And then, there were the trolls. They had an M.O.. Some innocent would show up with a new Tesla and some basic questions. If said innocent was lucky, said questions would be answered by the regulars. But if one of the trolls answered, said troll would answer with correct answers. And engage that innocent and others. And, after a bit, the troll would start spouting falsehoods. One in particular I remember: That person (?) would conflate energy and power at every opportunity; would claim preconditioning would empty out half the battery; and make it seem that the innocent had made a Bad Choice.

Interestingly, the troll would post at, literally, all hours. And at semi-regular intervals during these hours, the writing style would change. And it wasn't just this one troll - there was a gang of them, at least by the poster names, maybe a total of 20 "people".

I'm putting quote marks on that "people" because a number of us became convinced that this was a paid-for-by-somebody outfit, or outfits, whose purpose was to pollute Google Search and the like with bad information about Teslas. At the time, and even now, Teslas get sold by word-of-mouth and people doing research about the cars on-line. Do a search about Tesla reliability? One or more of the trolls' posts would be near the top of the search reports.

It got worse. The trolls started running false accusations against the reliable regulars; one of whom, if memory serves, was accused of sexual innuendo. This got the regular banned by Tesla for a bit, until some back-and-forth got the regular reinstated.

Tesla, clearly, did not want to invest serious money into moderating the forum. They made several attempts at making the forum self-moderating (one could vote a post out of existence, for a bit), which the trolls promptly used to ban posts by regulars. After several attempts by Tesla to clean things up, and actual staff-hours obviously becoming required in order to continue, Tesla decided to pull the plug. I believe the forums are still all there, frozen, but that was that.

So, coming back to this bit about money. One clue was that at least two of the trollish types weren't just posting on the Tesla forums; there was a forum being run by Ford for their upcoming electric Mustang, and post graphics and other convincing material from a particular poster on both Tesla and Ford was showing on both places. Interestingly, the troll would badmouth Tesla on the Tesla forum, pointing out how superior the Ford was, and vice-versa on the Ford forums. And this was that 24-hours-a-day entity.

So, analyses on Oil Companies, world-wide, show that they make, in profits, roughly $3B a day. Um. A bit of spare change to throw some FUD might do something. And then there's traditional auto companies. One might think that individuals-who-are-not-dumb-as-rocks in those companies might realize what a steamroller Tesla was becoming. And would Do Something to, well, slow down the steamroller. It's not just me who've been saying things like this: Sandy Munroe, for one, has pointed this out, too.

So, do we have those kinds of trolls around here? Good question. On the one hand, we've got, thank $DIETY, actual human moderators who don't, typically, take any *Sugar*. I don't know if there's a thread around here where the moderators have competitions on just how far they've booted obvious trolls, but wouldn't be surprised if there was.

But the operative word here is, 'obviously'. Just because the free-ranging tesla.com forums have closed, doesn't mean that the individuals who brought that about have gone away. I would imagine that they're still out there. Sure, Facebook, that's almost traditional. But I'd be highly surprised if we didn't have at least some, well, paid-for trolls wandering around here. If they get obvious, they get booted.

Ha. It's kind of like reading the Screwtape Letters, where a higher-up demon is remonstrating with a less experienced demon about what, and what not, to do. Actually killing somebody isn't exactly good for the Demon side if a bunch of angels show up and take the soul to heaven; the idea is to corrupt the souls, starting off slow and working one's way up.

So, do we have paid-for trolls around? Probably. Is any trollish poster paid-for? Probably not, there are people with negative opinions. But when repetitive negativity and falsehoods from particular posters gets a bit thick, then that's what the Ignore button is for.

Absolutely great post. Nominated for the 'Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit'.

 

[EVWatcher]

China - Might be February holidays (this year or every year?)

Chinese new year is based on the lunar calendar. Sometimes that puts in in January and sometimes in February.

This makes China YoY January February numbers unreliable due to the fact that they are potentially different months one year to the next as far as number of days where business is going on.

This year Chinese new year has yet to happen. In 2023 is was already over by now and it started on January 22nd.

 

[Knightshade]

I've never seen that 40% claim. It would be extraordinary to switch that many parts on such a low time frame. I do know that Elon said they bought the Lotus chassis for the OG Roadster, but ended up changing almost all the parts because EV needs are different. Well, the Model 3 and Model T are both EVs.

Are you sure you want to trust you memory on this? Humans didn't evolve to remember that type of detail... that's why God invented Google...

Tesla Model Y To Share ~76% Of Parts With Model 3, Be Built At Fremont | cleantechnica.com (2019-01-31)

You appear to be making the same mistake the previous guy did.

Quoting what Elon said pre-production and ignoring the actual teardown already cited in this thread showing the shared part % is much lower.

Tesla Giga Shanghai’s Model Y Teardown Shows the Crossover SUV Is World's Most Integrated EV

Recently, Zhihu Automobile teardown of made in China Tesla Model Y and carried out a comprehensive analysis in terms of body construction technology, internal interaction, electrical system, battery safety, etc., and concluded that Tesla Model Y is undoubtedly the most integrated electric...

www.tesmanian.com

Previously, it was believed that the level of joint use of parts of Model 3 and Model Y reached 70%, however it turned out that this is not the case. In fact, the cars appeared to share about only 25% of similar parts

Bold added since you missed it the previous times this has been posted in the thread.



BTW on a separate note regarding Joe Justice... He worked at Tesla for at most two months (or possibly as little as two weeks, he listed it originally as from July 2020 to August 2020

And since has largely made a career discussing it. So good on him I guess, but he was barely there and hasn't been for well over 3 years now, not sure I'd take his stuff quite as gospel as some appear to.

 

[EVWatcher]

Chinese new year is based on the lunar calendar. Sometimes that puts in in January and sometimes in February.

This makes China YoY January February numbers unreliable due to the fact that they are potentially different months one year to the next as far as number of days where business is going on.

This year Chinese new year has yet to happen. In 2023 is was already over by now and it started on January 22nd.

I’d be curious if someone has the time and tools to look back and see how January and February China sales numbers that come out a few days into the next month affect the stock price in correlation to when Chinese new year is.

For example the January sales numbers looked good this year and the stock went up.

But they looked good because last year January had ~33% fewer working days than it did this year.

And February number will probably look awful because Chinese new year start tomorrow-ish (the actual days of holiday vs how much is shut down at the beginning and end of the holiday are more open to discussion) so the stock will probably drop, even though Tesla Shanghai will probably be churning out more cars per day of operation than it did last year.

Walls street probably doesn’t account for this phenomenon in options pricing.

Year	Chinese New Year Start
2024	Feb 10
2023	Jan 22
2022	Feb 1
2021	Feb 12
2020	Jan 25
2019	Feb 5
2018	Feb 16
2017	Jan 28
2016	Feb 8
2015	Feb 19

 

[NicoV]

I used to fall for the dates my self. I have 2 cars with FSD bought and paid for. Now I havent tried V12 yet, but I simply don't think real FSD is anywhere near soon. Just to many edge cases I see FSD failing all the time and cant have FSD with common edge cases failing. Like how FSD deals with snowy conditions like FSD deals with high pedestrian situations. Both of which I experienced in the last month.

I agree that real FSD (i.e. sleep on the back seat while the car brings me from Belgium to Spain) is not anywhere near soon (even ignoring that after the moment it is technically possible it also need regulatory approval). Even more so for Europe, with its narrow country and inner city roads and traffic sign spaghetti (wait, that’s just Belgium).

But I still bought FSD for my new car: It was only 3K more than enhanced autopilot. Over a car lifetime of 20 years, it’s nothing. Meanwhile I’ll get to try out/enjoy whatever use cases that do work.

 

[Dikkie Dik]

You appear to be making the same mistake the previous guy did.

Quoting what Elon said pre-production and ignoring the actual teardown already cited in this thread showing the shared part % is much lower.

Tesla Giga Shanghai’s Model Y Teardown Shows the Crossover SUV Is World's Most Integrated EV

Recently, Zhihu Automobile teardown of made in China Tesla Model Y and carried out a comprehensive analysis in terms of body construction technology, internal interaction, electrical system, battery safety, etc., and concluded that Tesla Model Y is undoubtedly the most integrated electric...

www.tesmanian.com

Bold added since you missed it the previous times this has been posted in the thread.



BTW on a separate note regarding Joe Justice... He worked at Tesla for at most two months (or possibly as little as two weeks, he listed it originally as from July 2020 to August 2020

And since has largely made a career discussing it. So good on him I guess, but he was barely there and hasn't been for well over 3 years now, not sure I'd take his stuff quite as gospel as some appear to.

Justice should get a little more credit imo. He has been applying Agile to car manufacturing since 2006 and was an authority, author and lecturer on all things Agile long before his tenure at Tesla.

Joe Justice - Scrum Alliance

Joe applied agile to automotive manufacturing in 2006, founding Team WIKISPEED, and set 4 world records. WIKISPEED became the first automotive manufacturer

www.scrumalliance.org

A TED talk from Justice dating back to 2011 on his Wikispeed project, a car designed and manufactured in record time:

 

[EVWatcher]

I agree that real FSD (i.e. sleep on the back seat while the car brings me from Belgium to Spain) is not anywhere near soon (even ignoring that after the moment it is technically possible it also need regulatory approval). Even more so for Europe, with its narrow country and inner city roads and traffic sign spaghetti (wait, that’s just Belgium).

But I still bought FSD for my new car: It was only 3K more than enhanced autopilot. Over a car lifetime of 20 years, it’s nothing. Meanwhile I’ll get to try out/enjoy whatever use cases that do work.

Its Important to recognize that while building v11 may have been a prerequisite to building the data library needed for v12, v12 functionality and improvement rate is completely independent of all previous FSD experience.

This doesn’t mean that you are wrong to believe that sleep in the back see FSD is a ways away. But it does mean coming to that conclusion based on the performance of anything before v12 is not a sound reasoning for coming to that conclusion.

 

[Artful Dodger]

You appear to be making the same mistake the previous guy did.

The OP wrote:

"Elon said it would have about 70 to 75% shared parts with the Model 3. Some time after release, Elon stated it ended up being around 40% I don't have video links to share evidence of this."​

Elon DID NOT state this, that's from Tesmanian in Apr 2021 referencing a teardown of a MiC Model Y, which claimed 25% parts commonality (no source, no translation). China builds are separate from Fremont. The China teardown says nothing about 3/Y parts commonality in Fremont when Model Y production began in Jan 2020.

Munro did a teardown of a Fremont Model Y in Apr/May 2020 (already w. Gigacasting). From the 40-part series, here's Sandy's comments on parts commonality with Model 3:

Model Y E40: Mega Wrap Up - "Commonization" | Munro Live (2020-05-15)

SANDY MUNRO:

"Now Tesla initially said they were sharing as much as 75% of components with the Model 3. That would be quite an achievement...​

​

At the end of the day while we did see a lot of common components. We're not sure whether or not Tesla actually hit 75% in terms of literal parts. But maybe. We believe it may have been achieved with respect to cost of their components.​

​

Since the Model Y shares some of its costlier components with the 3, it may be we'll keep about about three quarters of the common cost sharing, with a small percentage of actually uncommon parts."​

In summary, Elon said 76% parts communality between 3/Y on the Q4 2018 earnings call (Jan 30, 2019). That was likely an accurate statement, given 12 months before Model Y production began in Jan 2020. Already by the time of Munro's teardown in Apr 2020, Model Y had changed significantly vs Model 3, which to this day is made w/o a Gigacasting.

TL;dr People rate their memories much higher than warranted by results. People also love to remember "things Elon said" when in reality they read it on a blog, or heard it in a video.

 

[Christine69420]

An interesting quote from the comments section on Youtube:

@GoCyote: Hey Joe, I ran into a couple of Tesla service techs doing PM (preventative maintenance) at one of my local super charger stations. I had a great conversation with them as we nerded out. They do general PM every six months, then a major PM every five years. The best part is that I found out that those white equipment cabinets contain racks of the same chargers used in the cars that are paralleled together to operate as the superchargers. This just tickled the nerd in my soul, since using an assembly line part as modules means that they are able to take advantage of the economies of scale, and if one module fails, others can take up the slack until they are replaced. I believe that he said that they are hot swappable, so replacement can occur while they are operating. Truly another example of the next level engineering at Tesla.

I had to laugh because it is so obvious now reading this that they reuse car chargers to save on cost and complexity and get benefits from scale. Titbits like this make me HODL my shares even tighter. The other charging networks miss out on this cost saver in their chargers.


Source was the comments here:

Spoiler: Even more chatter about this:

@DessieDoolan
@GoCoyote You seem to have struck gold. You had the bonus of talking to techs who knew their stuff, and were willing to talk about it.
Really impressed about the maintenance cycle. Tesla chargers have a reputation for reliability, there's the reason.

@GoCoyote
@DavidJohnson-tv2nn I am not sure of the function of the smaller cabinet mounted on the pad, as our older station that I was chatting with them at only has the larger cabinets, and the techs said that they were all installed in the large cabinets, and that DC was ran from the chargers to each charging stall. If I ever get a chance, I will ask about the newer modular systems. The charger modules contain transformers, diode bridge rectifiers, smoothing and conditioning, and current output controls similar to any DC power supply.

@GoCoyote
@DessieDoolan With all battery chargers that get their power from AC mains you are dealing with a combination of both AC and DC. The AC power comes in, then will be stepped up or down in voltage to that which is optimal for the charger system, then like any DC power supply that operates off of AC, will go through diode bridge rectifiers, smoothing and conditioning, then current and voltage output controls that can deliver DC to each individual vehicle at the voltage and current required. The vehicle will also contain further controls to ensure proper charging is occurring. Not sure how other vehicles do it, but Tesla has the vehicle communicate with the multiple chargers that are paralleled together to output exactly what the vehicle needs. As an electrician, I am impressed with the architecture.


@geomacaulay
Thats is an opportunity to note why NACS DC is better than CCS . But CCS has hi power 3-phase ac charging i hear you say...sure, but then you have to put 3 phase power rectification in EVERY CAR. Which is expensive, and heavy. Simpler and cheaper to build stationary rectification and just send DC into the car.

@GoCoyote
@geomacaulay No onboard vehicle chargers in the US use three phase power, since it is not available to US residential systems, so only split phase 120/240 is used in them.

CCS is a connection plug standard that provides separate AC and DC connections to vehicles, unlike the NACS which the vehicle can utilize low power AC or high power DC from the same connection. When a vehicle with a NACS plug connects to a charger, it determines if it is a AC supply or DC, then routes the incoming power through the required connections. If AC, it will route the power to the onboard AC to DC rectifier system (the onboard charger) that will output DC power to the battery. If DC is inputed, it will bypass the onboard charge and instead communicate with the external charger/s to provide the appropriate DC power to the battery.

CCS plugs provide entirely separate connections to the vehicle that allow for the routing of AC and DC to occur using separate connections instead of doing so using switching methods internal to the car. Both systems still use an onboard vehicle charger that can convert AC to DC, since making an external AC to DC converter would mean a bulky and expensive portable charger if you are visiting grandma and want to charge your vehicle.

It would also require separate wall chargers for each different vehicle since every vehicle battery requires different voltage and current settings. Much easier to include all of the necessary electronics in a package within the vehicle. The exception is for high amperage DC chargers where external AC to DC makes sense. With proper controls and common architecture, they can become universal to different vehicles battery charging needs. That is why universal adoption of NACS in North America is such a game changer, since it will create a common standard that will allow cross manufacturer vehicle and charging platforms.

The Only reason that Europe has gone with CCS plugs is that it was mandated by the EU before Tesla was able to get a foothold. Plus many counties in the EU provide 230V three phase power to the service in residential homes, yet there is also a lot of single phase 230V services, especially in older homes. Within the home most circuits are 230V single phase regardless if the service is 3 phase, except for vehicle chargers which tend to be three phase if available.

@GoCoyote
@DessieDoolan I agree. It makes a huge difference to be in front of issues instead of behind them. They will get notifications of issues, so they can provide emergency repairs in addition to the standard maintenance. Because they are using smaller modular components, they can allow some to fail, then replace them during scheduled maintenance. It also allows the chargers to cycle through the units as to which ones are being used the most in order to prolong their life.

 

[NicoV]

This doesn’t mean that you are wrong to believe that sleep in the back see FSD is a ways away. But it does mean coming to that conclusion based on the performance of anything before v12 is not a sound reasoning for coming to that conclusion.

I live in Europe, so my experience is with an autopilot version that hasn’t had any meaningful update in years. Hopefully we can try out a more recent FSD version before the end of the year.

Our current autopilot/speed limit detection ignores so many traffic signs just for determining the appropriate speed limit that it would lose its drivers license before it gets out of town (any town!).

 

[Artful Dodger]

The best part is that I found out that those white equipment cabinets contain racks of the same chargers used in the cars that are paralleled together to operate as the superchargers.

That sounds like a v2 Supercharger cabinet (v2 SuC will remain in service for some time yet, likely as long as the cars themselves are supported with parts).

The v3 SuC redesign no longer uses racks of on-board charger boards. More here on v3 internals:

V3 Supercharger power systems architecture | Tesla Motors Club (Sep 2, 2022)

Cheers!

 

[Cult Member]

Indeed, years ago Elon referred to this as 'scraping the barnacles'. I wonder how this will work in Germany? Labor laws there are quite different from Tesla's other facilities.

Standard is the "betriebsbedingte Kündigung" a Termination for operational reasons. The company will have to close an department or cancel a product line to do so and see no way to occupy the people in other areas.
Not very easy for a growing company with the next phase in view to find such an argument. But It is also used for temporary situations, something they do not think to improve within a foreseeable future. I.e. next phase delayed and current Staff was already hired to support it soon.