Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[joh01652]

I too am a bit skeptical on this one ... until recently if this was true Elon would have a "Training Day " to show this off ...
Likely machine learning techniques are being applied to the data sets to try and gather relevant info.
But AI drawing new models etc seems too far fetched to me...(we are in peak AI hype these days ...)

Too far fetched? But why? My partner and her brother (both way more computer literate than me) have showed me how they can ask AI to, say, create a fantasy landscape, or some crazy fantasy creature, and in short order it does. Then they can adjust the inputs, and the AI spits out a quite different yet equally alluring image in just a few seconds. Now imagine if you have CAD designs of every electric motor ever built stored in your own data centers, AND have real-time data on defects, friction points, lot numbers, date of manufacture, etc, and AI can draw what it thinks a more efficient motor will be. Isn't that, in part, what computer aided design is all about? And now just add AI to it. CAD engineering has done wonders in the bicycle industry, just fantastic wonders. The modern mountain bike today is so superior to anything ever built even 10 years ago, I often wonder how mountain biking as a sport ever took off, the old mountain bikes being so crappy, looking back now.

In the last earning call Elon said Tesla is not going to reveal as much anymore, going to keep their cards closer to their chest. I think that's wise, don't let the competition know what's coming. Shareholders will eventually be pleased and surprised, and the competition won't know what hit them and will fall further behind.

 

[replicant]

Anybody else noticed that @replicant seems to disagree with or react as "funny" to any bullish commentary or observations? Don't like to single people out but this has been happening to such a degree that I don't see why they even visit this thread. And where's the insight from them?

s/bullish/cultish

 

[SOULPEDL]

Max Pain of 185... almost.
What a mess of shorting around 170.

 

[Maarten]

No matter how much I liked the recent informative post of @Tronguy: I would like to propose that we do not start a witch hunt here.
In my opinion this is a subject for the mods, they are capable enough to handle this.

 

[Discoducky]

This is what Tesla stock should be doing given the future of what's to come...and proper guidance on earnings calls

 

[unk45]

Efficient Markets are not rigged /s

https://twitter.com/x/status/1755562621275926654

The 'funniest' part of this to to understand that Citadel Securities and Citadel LLC are different companies. That makes their 'strategies' easier to execute and pretty much ensures opaque views, when considering the denotation of 'opaque'.

every time one of these 'whales' is blatantly at fault there is a mild 'slap on the wrist' but with enough zeroes to impress the totally oblivious public.

In the meantime let's all dump on Elon Musk instead. He's a better target because he's not a recluse and is frequently indiscreet. In fact he may be the polar opposite to Ken Griffin.
Besides Elon acts to help save the planet. That alone should make him a target!/s

 

[Knightshade]

, that's from Tesmanian in Apr 2021 referencing a teardown of a MiC Model Y, which claimed 25% parts commonality (no source, no translation).

There is a source of course. They cite it in the story I posted


Actual text from the source I provided:

Zhihu Automobile completed a teardown of made-in-China Tesla Model Y. The firm carried out a comprehensive analysis in terms of body construction technology, internal interaction, electrical system, battery safety, etc.

Zhihu Automobile is the source.

They also showed the teardown at an auto show in China.

SHANGHAI, CHINA - APRIL 19, 2021 - Visitors look at a dismantled Chinese-made Tesla Model Y at the Shanghai Auto Show in Shanghai, China, April 19, 2021. The dismantling of domestic Tesla Model Y was held by Zhihu "Car Disassembly Lab". The dismantli

Download this stock image: SHANGHAI, CHINA - APRIL 19, 2021 - Visitors look at a dismantled Chinese-made Tesla Model Y at the Shanghai Auto Show in Shanghai, China, April 19, 2021. The dismantling of domestic Tesla Model Y was held by Zhihu Car Disassembly Lab. The dismantling objects were the...

www.alamy.com

And they posted a number of videos about various parts of the car/teardown too


I'm not the one who claimed Elon said 40, On the contrary I pointed out he originally said 75 pre-production and people just kept parroting that post-production without bothering to notice theonly teardown we know of that cited a real % comparison found a much lower #.


As to Shanghai- There are differences of course-- (and usually those differences get normalized between them before long) but your suggestion there's a ~50% difference in parts between the same model in the US and China is.... not how Tesla is likely to do things? I don't think the parts catalogs would support this suggestion either.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Trick Question:
What color is this light?

Just checking...

 

[Knightshade]

Justice should get a little more credit imo. He has been applying Agile to car manufacturing since 2006 and was an authority, author and lecturer on all things Agile long before his tenure at Tesla.

I agree he tells you he's been an expert on this stuff a long time.

But the fact he didn't arrive at Tesla will 2020, and left almost immediately (started July 2020, left August 2020--- that's a max of 62 days, a minimum of 2 days), suggests he's maybe not QUITE the authority on Tesla he wants you to believe when you buy his courses- nor did his ideas actually work with Teslas.

For that matter the fact he claims to be an expert on auto while apparently having spent roughly 99.99% of his career selling teaching courses and giving speeches but not actually working for auto companies might be worth noticing. In fact the resume link you provide mentions 0 car companies other than Tesla and indeed mentions no other companies -at all- other than a handful he has "spoken at"

 

[SOULPEDL]

I call green and nobody responds? Where's the fun, people...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Efficient Markets are not rigged /s

https://twitter.com/x/status/1755562621275926654

Here's the source article on BNN Bloomberg for those w/o access to their main website:

Citadel Among Hedge Funds That Got Morgan Stanley’s Block-Trading Leaks | BNN Bloomberg

Citadel Among Hedge Funds That Got Morgan Stanley’s Block-Trading Leaks - BNN Bloomberg

When the US punished Morgan Stanley for leaking upcoming stock trades to favored clients, it kept the list of recipients secret. They include one of Wall Street’s biggest players: Citadel.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

Paging @Hock1 @unk45 @winfield100

 

[scaesare]

I react many, many times more with helpful/informative and likes than thumbs down. You should read/browse better.

I've always added a funny reaction to things that makes me laugh (for instance, technical analysis) and the most cultish behavior. Thing is, TMC has changed a lot over the years and I might laugh more than in the past.

Might need to give you the Voight-Kampff test.

 

[powertoold]

This is what Tesla stock should be doing given the future of what's to come...and proper guidance on earnings calls

It's frustrating that the market doesn't understand that high-quality data is the gold, not chips

 

[Discoducky]

It's frustrating that the market doesn't understand that high-quality data is the gold, not chips

To be fair, the entire world is running ARM chips at the edge. Every phone on the planet.

 

[jerry33]

Efficient Markets are not rigged /s

https://twitter.com/x/status/1755562621275926654

$249 M is not even chump change for Morgan Stanley.

 

[johnm6875]

Unfortunately it seems like Elon will decide the response and the board will go along with it which is what the judge used to void the package.

I call green and nobody responds? Where's the fun, people...

A perfect example of "the exception that proves the rule"

 

[powertoold]

To be fair, the entire world is running ARM chips at the edge. Every phone on the planet.

Maybe I'm getting old, but after the initial hype of generative AI, I haven't seen as many posts about ChatGPT or related memes.

And almost all of the phone AI capabilities I've seen (Galaxy S24) are gimmicky and have little real-world practicality or desirability (stuff like cutting out background people or moving your kid in a scene after you've shot a pic).

Generative AI and LLMs in their current form and architecture aren't good enough yet for profitable applications, imo (still need to cross-check and confirm outputs). Personally, I think the AI hype right now is a bubble, especially in relation to AI training chips, where only a few large / expert businesses will have the capability, motivation, and data to do training.

When I look at the current market for AI capabilities and products, it seems like Tesla is the only one trying to achieve meaningful applications and has the expertise and infrastructure to do it.

It'd be nice to see if I'm wrong on this broad perspective though. I just don't see a profitable and useful outcome for generative AI in its current form, unless there's some new approaches (which may end up using less training resources btw).

 

[cliff harris]

ARMs free float is just under 9%. The jump in their stock is probably more related to that, and a short squeeze than any real assessment of fundamentals.
Maybe if elon gets to eventually sell twitter and buy a lot of TSLA we will end up in a similar position .

 

[jerry33]

Trick Question:
What color is this light?

View attachment 1016486

Just checking...

Mostly black.

 

[cliff harris]

When I look at the current market for AI capabilities and products, it seems like Tesla is the only one trying to achieve meaningful applications and has the expertise and infrastructure to do it.

I'm not sure that completely true. DeepMind have definitely shown actual practical application in various healthcare uses, and a lot of companies are investigating drug discovery applications.
Figure seem to be focusing on bipedal robot using neural networks. Even Boston dynamics, AT LAST seem to be looking at practical uses rather than parkour tik-tok videos.
I don't doubt Tesla is the best place for this though. The fact that the bots get assembled, designed and tested in the same company that has multiple huge industrial production lines is their key advantage. The question "Would this actually work on the factory floor though?' can be immediately same-day tested by Tesla. Not so much by other companies.