I think he missed the fact that the estimates are in fact very helpful to the 99.9% of the investing public that don’t religiously follow the daily/weekly/monthly tesla registrations in dozens of different countries, you know the people that aren’t like us freaks.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
This is a recent estimate:-
‘Global surge’ in large-scale energy storage deployments predicted this year by EnergyTrend
Analysis firm EnergyTrend has forecast that a “surge” in global large-scale energy storage system deployments is likely in 2024.www.energy-storage.news
We are at the very early stages of an exponential growth wave, market demand will increase as prices drop, growth will help drive price reductions.
For context, I don't assume Tesla making 20 vehicles per year by 2030 is completely off the table, What it needs is the initial Gen3 production to go well and 3-4 new Gen3 factories starting no later than early 2026. demand isn't an issue scaling production is..
Energy storage is similar the hard part of 2 TWh per year by 2030 isn't demand (assuming the right prices can be hit), it is supply ramping all parts of the production process in sync to get to the final outcome. By many companies and countries can contribute to 2 TWh per year by 2030. if we say Tesla only needs to do 10% of that then we are talking about 200 GWh, 8 fully ramped 4680 lines. Not hat Tesla will necessarily use 4680s, but by 2030 they probably will be using them.
So it is all a combination of multiple exponential curves, vey hard to predict, and humans are not good at predicting, The pace is always harder to predict than the end result.
200 Gwh at $300/kwh is $60B/yr. That is less than today’s car business. If Elon’s prediction of the energy business eventually being bigger than auto is to come true, Tesla will have to sell energy systems at the Twh level.
Hi, MC3OZ --This is a recent estimate:-
‘Global surge’ in large-scale energy storage deployments predicted this year by EnergyTrend
Analysis firm EnergyTrend has forecast that a “surge” in global large-scale energy storage system deployments is likely in 2024.
We are at the very early stages of an exponential growth wave, market demand will increase as prices drop, growth will help drive price reductions.
For context, I don't assume Tesla making 20 vehicles per year by 2030 is completely off the table, What it needs is the initial Gen3 production to go well and 3-4 new Gen3 factories starting no later than early 2026. demand isn't an issue scaling production is..
Energy storage is similar the hard part of 2 TWh per year by 2030 isn't demand (assuming the right prices can be hit), it is supply ramping all parts of the production process in sync to get to the final outcome. By many companies and countries can contributed to 2 TWh per year by 2030. if we say Tesla only needs to do 10% of that then we are talking about 200 GWh, 8 fully ramped 4680 lines. Not hat Tesla will necessarily use 4680s, but by 2030 they probably will be using them.
So it is all a combination of multiple exponential curves, vey hard to predict, and humans are not good at predicting, The pace is always harder to predict than the end result.
Thanks! Note that EnergyTrend's 167GWh estimate --
"the total figure for 2024 deployments, if factoring in residential and C&I storage as well, could reach 71GW/167GWh."
is bracketed by McKinsey's 140-180 range. Given the lead times here, short-term estimates should be very clustered, with any real surprises due to cancellations/delays. Longer term estimates, though ... as you point out,
"it is all a combination of multiple exponential curves, vey hard to predict, and humans are not good at predicting, "
, but still you have to try. I think Tesla's BESS business is worth between a little and a lot. Some people say that it's worth a lot more than my "a lot," that is, more than the auto business. Could be! But I'd love to see the numbers.
Finally, whatever the ultimate market size, it's important to have a date attached. Above, you threw out $500B as a steady state. When does that happen? Because if that's a 2054 # (ie.30 years forward), it discounts down to insignificance.
Yours,
RP
(Edited to fix some typos.)
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Not at all, you made valid points. Leverage can burn.
There is a real lack of good solid recent reports, recent being the hardest criteria to satisfy.
In relation to Tesla's mission, 2054 is far too late, they would like it to be closer to 2030.
Cost is a real demand driver LFP batteries cycled to 80% DoD can last 10,000 cycles,,, if the cost is $200 kWh.... that means $0.02 kWh/cycle.
At 100% cycling and 4,000 cycles,,, $0.05 kWh/cycle.
It is likely future cheaper sodium based batteries will do 100% DoD 10,000 cycles.
In the Australian context, solar $0.05 + batteries $0.05 is competing with gas at $0.25.
Batteries are not yet at $200 kWh, currently it may be closer to $400 kWh... but $200 kWh by 2030 seems possible,
Price, hence demand, isn't really an issue... raw materials are not an issue.
Being mission orientated, Tesla aims to scale ASAP and is more than happy to take outsized market share by scaling faster than others can.,
IMO the preparation for fast scaling is similar to "sharpening an axe" and it is one of the things Tesla does very well, even when it isn't readily apparent.
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Hi, MC3OZ --
> In relation to Tesla's mission 2054 is far too late
I'm not sure that Tesla's mission is relevant to my concerns, which are pretty focused on valuation.
>, they would like it to be closer to 2030.
Doubtless!
> Tesla aims to scale ASAP and is more than happy to take outsized market share by scaling faster than others can.,
When thinking about "scaling" ... I'm going to paste in something from the other thread:
------------------
" To get a sense of capital costs, check out this Google map of the Lathrop plant:
Google Maps
Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.
"Just tool around, zoom in and out. This modest sized building in an undistinguished industrial area has 40GWh capacity, or about 1/3 of McKinsey's 2023 global estimates."
----------------
When thinking about scaling, Laptrhop <> Austin.
I don't want to sound like I'm dunking on Megapacks. The bears who assign 0 value to the Energy business are wrong. Tesla is a leader in a rapidly growing market and I expect will remain so. The question is, "What's that worth?" Tesla could spin off the BESS business tomorrow. Where could/should that trade? Or to put it differently, if Tesla spun off BESS, how much should the stock drop by post-spin? My current best guess (and that's all it is!) is that BESS value is relevant only in extreme downside scenarios.
I'm hoping that someone will pop up and show me where I'm wrong.
Sorry for being so tedious! I'm interested in the topic and sometimes willing to ignore that others might not be.
Yours,
RP
That is crystal clear/s
I think you're quite right....and the variations could be pretty simple, really, from an engineering and manufacturing perspective:.
Model Y Eco (for a little less $): narrower 18" wheels with narrower tires than the current 19" base wheels (but the same diameter). This should mean available tires are less expensive, and last longer, and provide more range per charge, and are less likely to be damaged by potholes. Similar aero covers for the wheels...or even use the ones from the Model 3's 18" wheels. Max acceleration similar to today's "Chill" setting. Reduce the top speed. Maybe some cloth or textile seats -- extra benefit to that: you don't really need seat heating or cooling with textile seats...but the negative side is that the arm rests and door cards would probably also need new materials so they match, which would add manufacturing complexity. This should be an option for both the Long Range/AWD and the Standard Range -- that way, it will be the choice of folks looking to minimize cost, as well as those looking to maximize range.
Model Y Adventure (for extra $$): A bit more rugged suspension. An inch or so suspension lift, plus some 18" wheels with all-terrain-ish tires that are slightly larger diameter than the current version, so the ground clearance is up near 8" or so. All-weather/rubberized floormats standard. Maybe some metal skid plates for underbody protection. Maybe different plastic cladding around the wheel wells and underbody that looks a bit beefier. Mud flaps standard. Maybe the tow hitch is standard. Add-on options might include a rugged looking roof-rack, or one of those bull bars up front, or a spare tire and jack kit (roof- or hitch-mounted). This version probably only makes sense with the Long Range/AWD, since all the changes will reduce range.
For the best economics and simplest implementation, the actual powertrain, battery, brakes, body structure, body panels, and most of the interior would be unchanged...just swapping wheels/tires, maybe suspension, and then adding trim and other bolt-on parts to complete the package.
Good post. I would love to see an AWD model Y with trailer towing package and an additional 20 percent of range. We would buy it immediately. But I don’t get the impression that tesla feels longer range vehicles are desirable to customers. I think the cybertruck is evidence of this.
Jmho
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
The last two quarters, those 'final estimates' moved further away from the actual results, proving once again that you can make money on patreon by selling a random number generator.
...or, we could just apply rigorous statistical methodology and stop selling 'skill' that doesn't exist. Like VIN-ology. Or calculating your error rate of your final post-dediction, and pretending that characterizes the performance of all predictions. Statistically, it does the opposite, it hides the true error rate (which is not significantly different than the Company-compiled estimates published previously by Martin Viecha).
Best example of inappriate use of 'news' was the small fire years ago near the Tesla Fremont gigapress. IMMEDIATEL twitter post decreasing the quarterly production estimate. But when the results came in, production beat all estimates. This is simple: Production was not limited by Gigapress run rate, but that's not modeled (focus on providing 'jolts-per-second' on patreon).
People here do not understand the purpose of applying rigourous methodology in statistics: it is to separate the signal from the noise, to avoid being mislead by random events, not to profit from amplifying noise. That's why they don't 'understand'. Certain styles of investor want that noise. These are called short-term investors.
Nothing wrong with that, that's what makes a Market. It's just important to know who the players are.
Cheers to the Longs!
Compared to cars, energy storage is lower capex, in the long run lower margins, fast and almost risk free to scale when cells are available, and more recession proof.
It also opens the door to taking a percentage of energy trading via Autobidder and contractual arrangements.
Plus it is an important part of the mission...
So it can still be valuable even if it doesn't make the same about of revenue / profits as auto.
Diversified income streams are a good thing IMO.
Energy storage might have been a bit overhyped in the recent past... the next definite step changes are Gen3 when it happens, and FSD if/when it happens.
Most people who are negative about Tesla are sleeping on the importance and timing of Gen3, in particular the speed at which it may be able to scale. Energy storage is not yet in that league.
Others might be able to put a number on the value of energy storage, but I suspect the production volumes could change suddenly at any time, or they might not. It is hard to know what assumptions to make.
EDIT: I just found a relevant video:-
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Haha, yeah, hard to know what went wrong, esp. w. only 84M in volume.
As usual, things are afoot we aren't aware of...
Cheers to the Longs!
Just another reason for Tesla to bet on Texas:
FastEddieB
Member
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Austin is ramping Model Y right now, will likely double production this year. All they need to do with Superb Owl is a 30s spot announcing three things:
- Model Y is the best selling car in the World
- Starts at $399 per month
- Available for delivery RIGHT NOW!
Why not 2? Or more? Hell they're cheap and they can afford it... even though the SP would go down on Monday 'cause Tesla is so demand challenged they resorted to advertising...Austin is ramping Model Y right now, will likely double production this year. All they need to do with Superb Owl is a 30s spot announcing three things:
Cheers to the the WISE! (it it?)
- Model Y is the best selling car in the World
- Starts at $399 per month
- Available for delivery RIGHT NOW!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
This is really still in flux. Dr. Jeff Dahn is testing a new nickel chemistry with a 50 year lifespan which would turn BESS market economics on its head -- some CITIES aren't designed to last 50 years! (haha /s)
Tesla & Jeff Dahn UNLOCK LONG LIFE Battery Future | Cleanerwatt (2023-10-21)
Here's the Journal Article:
Aiken, Connor P., et al. "Li [Ni0. 5Mn0. 3Co0. 2] O2 as a superior alternative to LiFePO4 for long-lived low voltage Li-ion cells." Journal of The Electrochemical Society 169.5 (2022): 050512.
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