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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Tesla is not "Elon's company" despite his phrasing on X. As we know from last night, he owns ~20% of the company. Completely disingenuous of him to say "my companies," but it does give you insight as to how he views the other ~80% of shareholders.

Don't know the ownership structure of the other companies.
I view Tesla as "my company" ... .0003 % of it
 
Your lectures irritate me more and more. Although I only own 10% of my employer company, I say "my company". And although I only own roughly 0.0000000003% of Tesla, I say "my company" here too. Please try to get used to the fact that it can also be an expression of emotional and mental closeness rather than just a possessive pronoun. I would be grateful for more thoughtful contributions. Thank you in advance.

Regardless of the semantics, per the law it's a Board decision anyway.
 
I didn't like this video-- an algorithm told me to 'like' it... Love how companies chasing clicks for profits with algorithms, and tesla is driving to a safer future, pun intended... (if you can spare time today, this video is well worth watching. And might answer the question of how they are going to get FSD to handle super traffic in real big cities, like istanbul and karachi, etc)
 
Tesla is not "Elon's company" despite his phrasing on X. As we know from last night, he owns ~20% of the company. Completely disingenuous of him to say "my companies," but it does give you insight as to how he views the other ~80% of shareholders.

Don't know the ownership structure of the other companies.
This got me worried and thinking. When I say "my friends" does it mean that they belong to me, that I own them? Maybe I should ask them to give me money to buy more chairs.
 
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Global BEV market share, nice thread by Xill on Xitter


A few screenshots

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IMG_6891.png



IMG_6892.png
 
What staggers me is that Tesla sell 4 different cars (CT not ramped), and mostly they just sell2 (3/Y). I know that other brands tend to have more variants, but just imagine Tesla selling a small 2 seater van, a large transit-size van, a small 2 door compact, and also a ramped cybertruck, semi and roadster.
 
But none of that will happen anytime soon, if ever.
You may be right. But that’s what they said about Tesla EVs and SpaceX renewable rockets.

It’s when everyone thinks it won’t happen anytime soon, that’s when it does. Up next, FSD, Robots, brain implants that ‘fix’ non-fixable medical conditions, underground transportation, etc…

I understand those things aren’t quite the same as how The Market works, but I see humans moving through life much differently than they do now and THAT WILL have cascading effects on absolutely everything else. People used to write checks and carry cash - not so much nowadays.
 
You may be right. But that’s what they said about Tesla EVs and SpaceX renewable rockets.

It’s when everyone thinks it won’t happen anytime soon, that’s when it does. Up next, FSD, Robots, brain implants that ‘fix’ non-fixable medical conditions, underground transportation, etc…

I understand those things aren’t quite the same as how The Market works, but I see humans moving through life much differently than they do now and THAT WILL have cascading effects on absolutely everything else. People used to write checks and carry cash - not so much nowadays.

Oh I'm pretty sure we'll have FSD solved, Optimus stealing jobs, Boring tunnels all over (under?) the US, and human brain implants long before the US government changes any regulations for Wall Street. 😂
 
True, and personally I would be willing to pay quite a bit for a L3 (no supervision) FSD that worked in 95% of situations. I imagine many many others would too.

How does a system that works in 95% of situations require “no supervision”. What happens in the 5% of situations where it fails to work?

If it fails to work while in the middle of driving, and it is not under supervision….that sounds like it leads to a somewhat suboptimal outcome. Perhaps I’m misunderstanding the definition?
 
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That's not how I remember it. If I recall correctly, the partnership broke up because Tesla wanted access to the raw data from the Mobileye chipset, and Mobileye refused.
I've heard a few different spins on it from Tesla's side, ranging from that to Elon talking about how Mobileye was being slowed down by supporting so many cars from legacy companies


There's lots of commentary out there from Mobileye about how much risk Tesla was taking on with its implementation of Autopilot after the first accident way back when. We can argue the merits of one approach or another in terms of the speed of development and such, but Tesla is unique in its willingness to take these risks and I wouldn't expect other carmakers to go there.
 
That's not how I remember it. If I recall correctly, the partnership broke up because Tesla wanted access to the raw data from the Mobileye chipset, and Mobileye refused.
I've heard a few different spins on it from Tesla's side, ranging from that to Elon talking about how Mobileye was being slowed down by supporting so many cars from legacy companies


There's lots of commentary out there from Mobileye about how much risk Tesla was taking on with its implementation of Autopilot after the first accident way back when. We can argue the merits of one approach or another in terms of the speed of development and such, but Tesla is unique in its willingness to take these risks and I wouldn't expect other carmakers to go there.

How does a system that works in 95% of situations require “no supervision”. What happens in the 5% of situations where it fails to work?

If it fails to work while in the middle of driving, and it is not under supervision….that sounds like it leads to a somewhat suboptimal outcome.
That's not what it means, a Level 3 system can take ownership of the driving task under certain conditions and then pass the driving task back when it is approaching conditions under which it can't operate at Level 3 -- like Mercedes' implementation of NVIDIA's tech as a traffic jam assist that operates as a Level 2 ADAS (like Autopilot) outside of traffic jams.
 
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I've heard a few different spins on it from Tesla's side, ranging from that to Elon talking about how Mobileye was being slowed down by supporting so many cars from legacy companies


There's lots of commentary out there from Mobileye about how much risk Tesla was taking on with its implementation of Autopilot after the first accident way back when. We can argue the merits of one approach or another in terms of the speed of development and such, but Tesla is unique in its willingness to take these risks and I wouldn't expect other carmakers to go there.


That's not what it means, a Level 3 system can take ownership of the driving task under certain conditions and then pass the driving task back when it is approaching conditions under which it can't operate at Level 3 -- like Mercedes' implementation of NVIDIA's tech as a traffic jam assist that operates as a Level 2 ADAS (like Autopilot) outside of traffic jams.
“…then pass the driving task back when it is approaching conditions under which it can't operate”

Right, so it does require the driver to take over at short notice, which to me doesn’t sound like a very attractive form of “unsupervised”.

It all sounds rather suboptimal still. Would much rather have waymo level autonomy in a car - as slow and geofenced as it is currently - which requires no driver whatsoever, and when it fails doesn’t lead to any danger, and slowly expand that to higher speeds and wider areas as system improves.
 
What is the best source for tracking ... Change in ownership by largest share holders?




re Ownership of Tesla by Google's Gemini.



Largest Tesla Shareholders:

Individual Shareholders:


  1. Elon Musk: Tesla's CEO and co-founder, Elon Musk, is the largest individual shareholder with 715.022 million shares, representing 20.6% of Tesla's total outstanding shares. (Debatable Re Options)
Institutional Shareholders:

  1. The Vanguard Group: The Vanguard Group, a large investment management company, is Tesla's largest institutional shareholder with 225.94 million shares, representing 6.6% of Tesla's total outstanding shares.
  2. BlackRock: BlackRock, another large investment management company, is the second-largest institutional shareholder with 186.91 million shares, representing 5.4% of Tesla's total outstanding shares.
  3. State Street Corporation: State Street Corporation, a financial services and investment management company, is the third-largest institutional shareholder with 125.9 million shares, representing 3.6% of Tesla's total outstanding shares.
  4. Capital World Investors: Capital World Investors, an investment management company, is the fourth-largest institutional shareholder with 106.6 million shares, representing 3.1% of Tesla's total outstanding shares.
  5. SSgA Funds Management, Inc.: SSgA Funds Management, Inc., the investment management arm of The Vanguard Group, is the fifth-largest institutional shareholder with 78.2 million shares, representing 2.3% of Tesla's total outstanding shares.
  6. Geode Capital Management LLC: Geode Capital Management LLC, a hedge fund, is the sixth-largest institutional shareholder with 68.4 million shares, representing 2.0% of Tesla's total outstanding shares.
  7. Baillie Gifford & Co.: Baillie Gifford & Co., an investment management firm, is the seventh-largest institutional shareholder with 65.4 million shares, representing 1.9% of Tesla's total outstanding shares.
  8. ARK Invest: ARK Invest, an investment management firm founded by Cathie Wood, is the eighth-largest institutional shareholder with 58.1 million shares, representing 1.7% of Tesla's total outstanding shares.
  9. Susquehanna International Group, LLP: Susquehanna International Group, LLP, a hedge fund, is the ninth-largest institutional shareholder with 55.6 million shares, representing 1.6% of Tesla's total outstanding shares.
Please note that this list is based on publicly available information and may not be completely accurate. The ownership of Tesla shares can change frequently.

1. Largest percentage change:


While difficult to pinpoint definitively, Larry Ellison's significant share reduction in June 2023 likely stands out. He reportedly held around 13% of Tesla shares at his peak, and his exit reduced his ownership to an estimated 1.5% currently. This represents a significant percentage change but wasn't necessarily the largest in terms of absolute share volume.


2. Largest absolute change (reported):


Looking for publicly reported changes exceeding 5%, one can find instances like Baillie Gifford & Co. increasing their stake by 10.4 million shares (approximately 0.3% of outstanding shares) in May 2023. However, this might not necessarily be the absolute largest change, as significant activity might not be publicly disclosed.
 
“…then pass the driving task back when it is approaching conditions under which it can't operate”

Right, so it does require the driver to take over at short notice, which to me doesn’t sound like a very attractive form of “unsupervised”.

It all sounds rather suboptimal still. Would much rather have waymo level autonomy in a car - as slow and geofenced as it is currently - which requires no driver whatsoever, and when it fails doesn’t lead to any danger, and slowly expand that to higher speeds and wider areas as system improves.
The terms are defined by the SAE, so I’m not sure how they imagine it would be implemented in reality.
But it’s not hard for me to imagine a system that will alert you to take over when minimum conditions are not met and then safely pulls you over to the side of the road and parks if you do not respond. Obviously an L3 system would need to be able to react in an emergency if it is going to be considered unsupervised.

Such a system would be very useful for me and everyone outside major cities as your own car could play robotaxi under most circumstances, and be a normal car when necessary.
 
“…then pass the driving task back when it is approaching conditions under which it can't operate”

Right, so it does require the driver to take over at short notice, which to me doesn’t sound like a very attractive form of “unsupervised”.

It all sounds rather suboptimal still. Would much rather have waymo level autonomy in a car - as slow and geofenced as it is currently - which requires no driver whatsoever, and when it fails doesn’t lead to any danger, and slowly expand that to higher speeds and wider areas as system improves.

The primary difference is with L2 you have to actively be paying attention to everything as you remain the actual driver of the vehicle and, by definition, the OEDR of the vehicle is not sufficiently good to understand and respond to everything by itself, nor even to understand when it'll need help in the near future.

With L3 you can be reading a book, watching a movie, replying to email, whatever--- so long as you can, with a brief warning from the car because it's capable of knowing in advance situations it'll need help with, take back control after that brief warning period.


Maybe I missed it but I thought there would have been more discussion on Elon buying stock and now owning 20% of the company. To me this signals to TSLA investors that he’s staying at the company and he believes the stock is going to run up imminently. My guess FSD12 beta will be wide release soon and will blow people away.


There's no discussion because that's not what actually happened.

The #s reported on the 13G are virtually identical to the ones reported last year too- it was bad reporting that suggested he'd somehow acquired a ton more shares-- he had not.
(IIRC there was one fairly tiny exercise of a pre-2018 option pack I think Mongo mentioned, but no substantive change in his % of ownership from that)