Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MartinAustin]

Woot

 

[wipster]

Well alrighty then!!!

 

[Joe F]

Short or naked short?

Yep, I should have stated naked.

 

[Snerruc]

At risk of being off topic, I often wish I had my 2016 back with follow mode and cruise control that actually worked.

 

[Big Time]

We are now once again closer to 300 than 100 That makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Shortze's covering? Oh wait....Elon must be buying!!

Whoa, settle down there Cowboy! I heard from people familiar with the matter that this is just algo's buying, and the SP is going to fade. /s

Cheers to the Longhorns!

 

[LuckyManX]

Ok. How do you want me to feel about that?

I asked this of another poster last week. What’s his definition of short term? 6 months? A decade? A century? I have no context on which to base my own opinion on his opinion.

Additionally, the world is not static and neither are people’s minds. We can and do change our minds, often when we have more/new information. So what is that information he has vs what he had 5 years ago?

Anyone who has kids, or will someday, needs to ask themselves, "What future will we leave for our kids? Where will they be able to survive, let alone thrive." Just my 2 cents.

 

[Ellec]

Tesla's Strategic Masterpiece. on Youtube | Farzad (8 min) explains how FSD software leverages low-margin hdw.

Cheers!

No offence to the guy who made the video but I couldn't get through it, it seems facile and lacking depth, just him saying stuff everyone already knows, especially his target audience. Another YouTuber who feels they need to keep generating interest by producing content even when there is nothing notable communicated.

 

[GOVA]

a bit OT but related to Tesla:

Yesterday, I brought 3 pizzas in the frunk of my MY which I took home but did not close the frunk. A lady walking down the street started yelling "I see you are in trouble because the hood is open", I said "come down and take a look inside, it's worth it". Once she did she was like "oh, it is a trunk" and she left.

Today - while changing the tires of same MY, I was watching it through a big glass wall. About 15 mins before they ended an older gentleman joined me but did not say a word, he just kept watching. Once they called me to pick it up, he asked "how does it (Tesla) work for you" I said that we have 2 and we love them 100% and do highly recommend. He said that he was on the fence but it looked like I might have convinced him to jump over!

Go 300.

 

[Artful Dodger]

No offence to the guy who made the video but I couldn't get through it, it seems facile and lacking depth, just him saying stuff everyone already knows, especially his target audience. Another YouTuber who feels they need to keep generating interest by producing content even when there is nothing notable communicated.

All true, but it does go right to the throat of the bear thesis, that Tesla is sacrificing their margins for volume and losing out. Farzad makes the point (simply) that Telsa stands to vastly INCREASE their margins over time because of retroactive + recurring income from the fleet (more cars is better), rather than depending on new car sales exclusively (which is what main stream Wall-E believss).

Notably, Elon tweeted out his agreement to the point of this video:

Elon Musk on X: "Accurate" - in reply to "Tesla's Strategic Masterpiece" video by Farzad

 

[bobfunn]

Has anyone started doing modeling/thinking on the currently beginning economic collapse of China and what effect that will have on Tesla Shanghai sales in 2025/2026 if they are in a severe recession/depression by then?

What percentage are China's sales of global?

Thx

 

[replicant]

Telsa stands to vastly INCREASE their margins over time because of retroactive + recurring income from the fleet (more cars is better), rather than depending on new car sales exclusively (which is what main stream Wall-E believss).

That was obvious back in 2016, when we expected the NYC-SF full self drive.

The thing is, no one knows when this will happen, and if we have to wait another 10 years, the bull thesis might include a short-term bear one before SP explode. I can wait this long but in this market, few can.

 

[Rammstein]

I’m so confused. Does Elon currently own 13% or 20% of TSLA?

 

[mongo]

I’m so confused. Does Elon currently own 13% or 20% of TSLA?

13% ish
20% is if he executed and kept all his 2018 CEO plan options (infinite cash on hand senario)

 

[ShareLofty]

But seriously, a lot of my friends lost their mind because "look, TSLA is mooning AH" and they all cited the SEC filing as the reason. I was the only one who said it's going to fade tomorrow. Algos don't really care about the substance of the news. They just know how the average Joe is going to react to the *headline* so they front run the mass, then sell into strength.

This is a tough L for you

 

[Artful Dodger]

Has anyone started doing modeling/thinking on the currently beginning economic collapse of China

Haha, yeah, Adam Jonas/Morgan Stanley. They've pushed the story for years that China will peak mid-decade then have lower sales by 2029 when they'll spin off the division. Pure bunk.

In other news, did you see that Morgan Stanley was fined $249M by the $EC last week for front running clients stock sales?

unusual_whales on X: "BREAKING: Citadel was among the hedge funds that got Morgan Stanley’s, $MS, block-trading leaks, per Bloomberg. Morgan Stanley gave hedge funds advance as clients planned to sell enough to move market prices. Morgan Stanley paid $249 million to settle the probe." /X​

Citadel Among Hedge Funds That Got Morgan Stanley’s Block-Trading Leaks | BNN Bloomberg (Feb 7, 2024)

If those sharks can work up a scare story, they can make** money with it...

Morals of an Alley Cat...
**"make money" meaning "defraud investors" in this case

 

[GhostSkater]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758260034906083667

 

[GOVA]

Has anyone started doing modeling/thinking on the currently beginning economic collapse of China and what effect that will have on Tesla Shanghai sales in 2025/2026 if they are in a severe recession/depression by then?

What percentage are China's sales of global?

Thx

Not sure if serious.

Do tell the source(s) or whatever else is pointing to such collapse.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

No wonder $TSLA is up today:

Ford CEO tells Wall Street to forget Tesla, says 'Pro' business is the future of the auto industry

Ford Pro is made up of the automaker's traditional fleet and commercial businesses as well as emerging telematics, logistics and other connective operations.

www.cnbc.com

 

[larmor]

All true, but it does go right to the throat of the bear thesis, that Tesla is sacrificing their margins for volume and losing out. Farzad makes the point (simply) that Telsa stands to vastly INCREASE their margins over time because of retroactive + recurring income from the fleet (more cars is better), rather than depending on new car sales exclusively (which is what main stream Wall-E believss).

Notably, Elon tweeted out his agreement to the point of this video:

Elon Musk on X: "Accurate" - in reply to "Tesla's Strategic Masterpiece" video by Farzad

In a recent conference call, Elon mentioned that we don't even care about the profits on the auto business because the wealth creation from release of FSD was going to be transformative. At this point, analysts hooked on the first part of this remark but completely ignored the second part, presumably so that more shares can become available at significant discounts because a 50% share discount now means a 2X wealth creation event instead of just an average wealth creation event.