Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

I suspect they will offer extended ranges once the competition is serious enough to force them to do so, and battery supplies and chemistries enable it. But for several more years at least they won't. A 500 mile range is a minimum where we are in the American charging desert of the Rocky mountain states, at least if you hope to venture outside the small home charging and interstate charger radius for any sort of backcountry excursions when and where cold temperatures are common. I saw the writing on the wall early last year and just bought another Jeep cherokee that gives me that range in all conditions. Will check back around 2030 when this one's worn out to see about viable BEV or hybrid options. Unless we see dramatic plans to start densifying the charging network in the Rockies soon, an extended range hybrid vehicle like that offered in the RAM trucks next year with ~680 miles of range will be the best reduced carbon alternative.

You describe a "remote" need within the full set of trucks owners, pun intended. There are not enough of you to justify any volume sales of "~680 mi range" with current technology. There's a reason you didn't see any other vehicles on that mountain you went to so far away.

I think it's great that others offer an EV solution here, same with Lucid in fact. But they will likely be niche and may not survive long term. If I were to go on an adventure beyond typical range, I'd also bring additional power with me - be it panels, more batteries, a generator, induction charging from High Power Lines, whatever...

 

[loquitur]

The thing that really got my goat about the text size recall, was Tesla being required to send out paper mail to owners, notifying us of the "recall", and then telling us there was nothing to do about it because it has already been fixed via an over the air update! What a waste of time and resources.

Got that paper flyer too, but tossed it because the fine print was too small to read.

 

[SmokyPeat]

who is adrian dittman?

Sure sounds like Elon to me. I think I'd need to see some video of him speaking to be convinced otherwise.

 

[hobbes]

But wasn't single stack for both introduced a year ago in v11.x?:

Elon said they are currently limited by training computing resources. So if they think that with the given compute they could for example make city streets 50% better and leave highway the same (on the old FSD 11 stack) OR make city 25 % better and highway 10% (because it was already better than city and additional improvements need non-linearly more compute), maybe they chose to split stacks again for now until they have more computing resources.

 

[Zero CO2]

You ‘re making excuses for Tesla. A 300 mile version was always part of the plan. No one would have been required to haul around batteries they did not want. What was not part of the plan was a 500 mile version that required a major compromise in bed size. Obviously Tesla thought they’d be further along with high energy density 4680s to offer 500 miles of range without compromising the bed.

As soon as 4680s with high enough energy density are available, the range extender will be discontinued and its value will plummet in the used market.

that is fair point for those requiring the additional range day 1

 

[hobbes]

(if there's a preferable thread for this, we should probably move it...)

by "toggles", do you mean:

- It switches stacks mid-trip as it moves into different geographic areas?

- It selects a stack for an entire trip as entered into nav?


Do you have a reference to the current FSD incorporating both stacks and switching between them?

In AIDRIVR´s excellent video he actually talks about how he thinks he can see when it switches between two stacks - after watching the transitions a couple of time I see it too, the blue line in front of the car showing where FSD is planning to go suddenly gets a bit longer or shorter:

 

[Zero CO2]

Best answer (and partially why I did't pull the trigger on a Founder's CT).

And the Range Extender was not available right away - that was a red flag, especially so far out, like the end of '24. Instead, prototype it, give yourself enough time to evaluate need as the ramp/chemistry progress, and if still needed by (summer), manufacture the Extender Pack as pure backup plan. IMO, we will see very few of these in the wild - if any at all. Maybe a small % on Founder series only.

I'm confident that in the near future, Tesla will build mine without a pack and towing will be solved. The Extender was never in the original plan or they would have made the main pack larger with varied kWh capacity, plain and simple.

all good points but you wont be a founder ... and that has to count for something....besides overpaying for an inferior truck

 

[scaesare]

In AIDRIVR´s excellent video he actually talks about how he thinks he can see when it switches between two stacks - after watching the transitions a couple of time I see it too, the blue line in front of the car showing where FSD is planning to go suddenly gets a bit longer or shorter:

Ah.. interesting... thanks.

 

[dl003]

You ‘re making excuses for Tesla. A 300 mile version was always part of the plan. No one would have been required to haul around batteries they did not want. What was not part of the plan was a 500 mile version that required a major compromise in bed size. Obviously Tesla thought they’d be further along with high energy density 4680s to offer 500 miles of range without compromising the bed.

As soon as 4680s with high enough energy density are available, the range extender will be discontinued and its value will plummet in the used market.

I'd agree that we who are comfortable with an extender, were making excuses for Tesla if there was a better truck on the market spec for $, but there isn't. It's still far ahead of the competition but the technology is simply not there yet.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Anyone think we're going to see blowout earnings for Nvidia that lifts the entire Nasdaq tomorrow? Or vice versa?

 

[Linkmeup]

Anyone think we're going to see blowout earnings for Nvidia that lifts the entire Nasdaq tomorrow? Or vice versa?

...Have companies stopped buying GPU's?

 

[dl003]

Anyone think we're going to see blowout earnings for Nvidia that lifts the entire Nasdaq tomorrow? Or vice versa?

The entire market, minus one stock. Guess which one?

 

[unk45]

@unk45 I guess we will be the last of South America

As a Columbia graduate I really wish Colombia would not come before us.
My reservation may, at this rate, be part of the inheritance for my kins, I really hold a faint hope Tesla will be here before i end out choosing some not random Chinese-sourced model as my next ride here.
FWIW, I am taking delivery of my fourth US Tesla this week, assuming all goes well when I arrive there tomorrow morning.

 

[AudubonB]

Who's Next?* or, Tesla in Latin America

Mexico came first, but that's okay
NAFTA demands it be that way

Puerto Rico was next, but some do think
They're state 51 or some such thing

Who's next?

Then Chile got the nod, but don't you grieve
'Cuz lithium's there, I do believe

Who's next?

Costa Rica's soon, I have heard tell
They're nice and rich and white as (words fail me here)

Colombia's up, and that is great
(Ven'zuela's neighbor can't be late!)

Who's next?

Brazilians: stand in line and don't go far.....
As........Paraguayans get The Car

*As Tom Lehrer is still with us, that precludes him from rolling over in his grave.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

The entire market, minus one stock. Guess which one?

PANW?

 

[Joe F]

Anyone know how to report poetry posts?


Mod edit: I'll hotlink you to the Sr. Moderator. Do be prepared to prove that what you object to is, in hard fact, poetry.


Anyone know how to append a "funny" sticker to a mod comment?

Mod edit: Disruption is hard.

 

[NicoV]

...Have companies stopped buying GPU's?

No, but keep in mind the following tweets from Jim Keller:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758910478724846073

and

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758943525662769498

The competition is coming

 

[cliff harris]

As expected, both Rivian and Lucid have terrible results, missing expectations...

 

[Singuy]

Rivian's huge miss comes from 2024 FT guides production of 57,000 vehicles, street EST 80,472

Guides ADJ EBITDA loss $2.70B, EST loss $2.59B
❖ Guides capital expenditure $1.75B, EST $2.4BRESULTS: Q4
❖ Revenue $1.32B, +98% y/y, EST $1.25B❖ ADJ loss per share $1.36 vs. loss/shr $1.73 y/y, EST loss/shr $1.33
❖ ADJ EBITDA loss $1.10B, -25% y/y, EST loss $1.05B
❖ Operating expense $975M, +23% y/y, EST $1.01B
❖ R&D expenses $526M, +31% y/y, EST $544M
❖ SG&A expense $449M, +14% y/y, EST $472.3M
❖ Negative ADJ free cash flow $1.41B, -19% y/y, EST negative $853.1M
❖ Capital expenditure $298M vs. $294M y/y, EST $373.6M
❖ Cash and cash equivalents $7.86B, EST $8.74B

 

[Unpilot]

That is some serious whiplash watching NVDA!