Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tony73]

Because Dojo service is announced, stopping it getting to $1500?

What you are more likely to see is Tesla offset all its work to Dojo and offer its Nvidia clusters as a service.

 

[Artful Dodger]

For all those that complain about Elon, think about whether the glass is half empty or half full.
We could have had Trevor Milton. Of course, none of us would have any money left if that had been the case.

Haha, or worse: we could still have Rawlinson, Peter Dore (0001873374)

'The Six Million Dollar Sham' ...

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Well it's already worked much better than holding the past few years. Selling in November 2021 at $398 was the best decision ever.

Why did I sell? Because at a 1.2 trillion dollar market cap, Tesla had so much of its future expected earnings fully priced in. Like, all the growth.

Now, we are at 600 billion dollars market cap and still pricing in much of the growth toward 5 million cars. How does Tesla get back to 1.2 trillion in value?

You need robotaxis and / or Optimus revenues. Those aren't guarantees, and most people investing in a EV maker years ago didn't expect that any future value would be solely dependent on those 2 products. But here we are.

Hope you are all experts in highly reliable AI hardware devices, otherwise I wouldn't act smug.

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observer

In case you’re interested and this has not been stated earlier.

My sales person just updated us. Tesla app now states “2019 Tesla Model X Full Self-Driving Transfer Applied.” Within the tab within Trade-In Offer.

FYI ~ on the way home we saw one to two truckloads of Tesla’s heading north to Fife, Seattle or Canada. This was back on or about the 10th of Feb.

Cheers

 

[2daMoon]

Awesome volume today whoo-hoo!

Guess there were few marks showing up to the Whack-a-Mole booth at the Friday Fair.

 

[Mengy]

Well it's already worked much better than holding the past few years. Selling in November 2021 at $398 was the best decision ever.

Why did I sell? Because at a 1.2 trillion dollar market cap, Tesla had so much of its future expected earnings fully priced in. Like, all the growth.

Now, we are at 600 billion dollars market cap and still pricing in much of the growth toward 5 million cars. How does Tesla get back to 1.2 trillion in value?

The Gen3 car will likely be the next growth phase for Tesla. I don't think they will scale the MY or the M3 much higher than they currently are, Semi production probably wont kick in until mid 2025 at the earliest, and CT production will probably max around 250K in two years, not enough to impact revenues substantially. COGS will be declining over time so that will increase margins a bit and boost the financials, but I don't think it will be enough to make TSLA go much above $300 at best. I doubt we'll see 1.2 trillion market cap again until Gen3 is ramped and selling 500K+ per year. I don't think we'll see that until 2026 honestly.

So yeah, my gut feeling is TSLA will trade mostly "flat" until then (between $150 and $300 IMHO), I don't think we'll see a new ATH above $415 until sometime in 2026 and my hunch is Gen3 will bring it. The math in my spreadsheet predicts it at least, I assume margins raise only modestly for the next two years.

Now, that said, there are a few unknowns which could give TSLA a "Chat GPT" moment, which could make the stock moon very unexpectantly. If FSD gets solved the Robotaxi phase of growth kicks in, this would forecast a huge increase in Tesla's valuation. Same with Optimus, if they get the bot to a state where they start selling them to customers TSLA would also moon. I honestly feel we'll see Optimus sold to customers before Robotaxis are on the roads, but that's just my opinion.

Both of those are unpredictable but massive positive catalysts. Honestly though, I do feel we'll have quite a bit of foreshadowing before either of those kick in. Truthfully I think investors could sell out of TSLA today and simply wait until either L5 FSD or Optimus become real and tangible, and THEN buy back in. I've thought about it, but I'm a simple man and I don't need the money, so I'm just holding my TSLA until both Robotaxis are real and Tesla Bots are working in the real world. I'm a patient investor.

Like I said, good luck. Time in the market is much easier than Timing the market, and anyone trying to precision trade something as volatile as TSLA is gambling, pure and simple. I don't gamble.

 

[geometro]

"Incentives drive behavior".... until the Board determines / corrects the comp package, it seems like we won't have Elon doing the Tesla discussion or amplifying all of the good work the team is doing (at least not to the same extent). I'm not saying there's no captain on the ship, it's just that he appears to be not fully engaged.

Fully expect the snarky comments to come, but what kind of board is this if there can't be a variety of observations / opinions?

 

[Musskiah]

It did/it will (this is just profit-taking from day traders). It's still parked smak on top of its Upper-BB that's what you'd expect after the euphoria is hauled in by MMs+hedgies.

My thumb-in-the-wind estimate is that NVDA goes to $1089 buy end-of-year (ask me why).

View attachment 1021139

Cheers!

@Artful Dodger What's your loDgic Lodger?

The fourth Fibonacci extension is around $1090. When a stock has incredible momentum, it's run will exhaust at this fourth extension.

It's plain to see that the first and second extensions are the point at which the stock took an intermittent plateau.

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observing

Right, wrong or otherwise.

The obvious has been stated by the Tesla CEO (re: bold cuts and sleeping in factory). Why not purchase Rivian, just like many acquisitions in years past? This offers a second option pickup line for those liking a more traditional pickup look while moving full bore EV.

FYI ~ I boldly redefined the 155mm cannon battalion with two 155 batteries and one MLRS battery back in 1990/1. Oh, I also recommended the cutting of one field artillery general billet from Europe. Both my suggestions were rejected by the field artillery community, not the bean counters. So much for robust cost cutting tax payer measures. Oh, I was told to retire in no uncertain terms (retire or lose your retirement if not promoted) in 1993 by the legacy officers. I resigned, and let my best friend become eventually the top landscape architect in the state of Washington, department of transportation. As I now boast with legacy officers, she got her education on the GI Bill ~ I was the GI and I paid the bills ~ not the tax payers.

I do not know if this is a realistic idea or not, just thought I’d toss it out for those that are thinking the same thoughts.

Cheers

 

[ShareLofty]

I'm not saying there's no captain on the ship, it's just that he appears to be not fully engaged.

He hasn’t been fully engaged since he bought the bird

 

[GOVA]

Gloomy Sunday Friday, ah?

I vividly recall Elon mentioning a couple of times that things would be tough until 2nd half of 2024. He said that just lately and around 2 years ago. Both times he targeted the election time as the time mark.

So far he's been correct.

I am sure now that Tesla has become very tightlipped regarding everything which is how they shield themselves from the WS and vultures. Most of things known are just strong guesses.

I still hope Tesla will announce several products which will change a lot. They will do it at the right time.

From what I've seen lately, the CT ramp seems to exceed my expectations especially for the kind of new product CT is. Giga Texas videos are incredible showing constant progress. Those look great from the drone, but I ask you to seek a video which shows a drive by of said factory. This thing is huge! and constantly growing with facilities around there.

A few more factories are still coming - Mexico, India(?), Indonesia(?). Berlin's expansion has been voted against but maybe this will make them move a bit East? Poland is only ~50 miles away with no borders in between.

Overall, I am positive. It's been not about Tesla, rather about the mob which controls the economy and poisons people's minds. It will turn back eventually. If not everybody should worry.

 

[wipster]

OT

Well, it looks like they didn't stick the landing dammit, even though they intimated they did last night. Glad I sold before the press conference!

Have a great weekend all!

 

[jamaatta]

Same with Optimus, if they get the bot to a state where they start selling them to customers TSLA would also moon. I honestly feel we'll see Optimus sold to customers before Robotaxis are on the roads, but that's just my opinion.

We need 1-5 webcams online showing Tesla Bot doing productive, continuous work in some Gigafactory. Then WS and investors and another companies will see the true value of Bot. This can realistically happen already this year. Or 2025. Or next. Who knows?

And my guess is that Optimus will be leased, not sold, to other industrial companies. Value of Bot only grows as bot fleet learns more skills. It would be stupid to sell them.

 

[Joe F]

I was bored and tired, so I pulled a Wipster and took a much needed 2+ hour nap. Woke up to read this:

"(Reuters) - Ford Motor(F) has halted shipments of all 2024 model year F-150 Lightning electric pickups over an undisclosed quality issue, Automotive News reported on Friday citing a company spokesperson. "

The competition is failing faster than they were rumored to have been coming.

HODL

 

[geometro]

Generally not a fan of these articles, but thought this was helpful:

Tesla Stock Missed Out on the Nvidia Party. Here’s Why. — Barron's

Follow Barron's in Apple News

stocks.apple.com

 

[Krugerrand]

Haha, or worse: we could still have Rawlinson, Peter Dore (0001873374)

'The Six Million Dollar Sham' ...

I still remember in early/mid 2012 when he and Nick ‘Faraday’ Sampson left. The media AND TMC frenzy of doom that ensued was epic. Turns out neither one was worth much and certainly not to Tesla yet sooooooooo many were convinced it was end of days for Tesla. The SP also took the prerequisite dump.

 

[dl003]

Generally not a fan of these articles, but thought this was helpful:

Tesla Stock Missed Out on the Nvidia Party. Here’s Why. — Barron's

Follow Barron's in Apple News

stocks.apple.com

can you zelle me $1 to subscribe? I'll pay you back when we get back to $300.

 

[Krugerrand]

Hope you are all experts in highly reliable AI hardware devices, otherwise I wouldn't act smug.

Who’s being smug now?

Don’t you worry about us dummies.

 

[Krugerrand]

Forward Observing

Right, wrong or otherwise.

The obvious has been stated by the Tesla CEO (re: bold cuts and sleeping in factory). Why not purchase Rivian, just like many acquisitions in years past? This offers a second option pickup line for those liking a more traditional pickup look while moving full bore EV.

Are you sure their mess is worth fixing or can even be fixed?

Without running with the ball and listing the many things Tesla would have to scrap or redo, I can’t think of a single thing worth the effort it would take.

The Rivian pickup has to be entirely broken down and rebuilt in a profitable, Tesla, way. I don’t even see how Tesla has the time to fix it. It would be like starting with an ICEV and trying to turn it into a BEV. By the time Tesla was done, they might as well have started their traditional pickup truck from scratch.

There’s no way the Rivian factory is set up efficiently. There’s no way the employees have Tesla culture. Just no.

 

[SmokyPeat]

So true. Still curious. Elons a smart guy. He must have an angle.

I think it's mostly just a bruised ego, and a lot of hurt that his daughter disowned him. I think he needs a good woman in his life to help him heal.