Tesla didn't APPEAR to record any Cybertruck deliveries in Q4 (perhaps they were all employees). In Q1, they have obviously delivered some. As the volumes are so small, it is fair to assume Q1 will be the first quarter to show material negative COGS for the Cybertrucks that have been delivered...with actually worsening total COGS for each quarter until the volumes ramp to "break-even"? I'm probably not explaining that well, but basically as Elon indicated in the earnings call (i.e. a drain for about 18 months).
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Why do you say that? Even if it was to employees it still counts as deliveries. (They "hid" the deliveries in the new "Other Models" category along with the Model S and Model X.)
Yes.
I'm sure they will continue to do this until CT makes up for a large amount of deliveries.
GhostSkater
Member
OT... This is so annoying. I'm trying to get some work done.
(I'm literally having a blast testing Haptic feedback in my shoe - Tickle-Tickle! Control is now hands and eyes free. Next step, Neuralink.)
OK... whatever.
Edit: Later on... Beat that!
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The increased sales of this car will have a bearing on the stock price, hence the post.
Different ways to interpret what Elon said about the Cybertruck:
"It's a great product, but financially, it will take, I don't know, a year to 18 months before it is a significant positive cash flow contributor."
My mind focuses on that word "significant."
Tesla is a company producing and delivering roughly 2,000,000 vehicles per year profitably. If each of those contributes some thousands of dollars to the positive cash flow, then what does the Cybertruck have to do to be considered a "significant" contributor to the total cash flow, even of just the automotive branch of the business?
If, at some later date, 1% of the positive cash flow is from Cybertruck, is that significant? 5%? 10%?
I never felt like Elon was saying the Cybertruck would be a drain...just that it will be a while before production optimization and production numbers are up high enough for Cybertruck to make a notable contribution to Tesla's cash flow. When compared to 2,000,000 other vehicles produced annually, it feels like Cybertruck would need to be up in the 100,000 (5%) or 200,000 (10%) range to become a significant part of Tesla's positive cash flow total.
By that metric, it's debatable whether the Model S and Model X are considered significant contributors to Tesla's cash flow. So, in a way, Elon might be indirectly indicating when he foresees the Cybertruck outselling the S and X....and we know plans for the ramp only keep going up from there.
Congo Line
(not the dance)
Hate to be a pessimist, but could be that those are going down in sympathy with TSLA.
OT... This is so annoying. I'm trying to get some work done.
(I'm literally having a blast testing Haptic feedback in my shoe - Tickle-Tickle! Control is now hands and eyes free. Next step, Neuralink.)
OK... whatever.
Edit: Later on... Beat that!
View attachment 1024550
Sure is fun today!
I’ve gotten use to some of the volatility in this share price, and normally don’t mind when it does its own thing on no news but this feels weird… like there is a big seller out there.
Hopefully this post will age poorly
Hopefully this post will age poorly
I've owned $TSLA since 2018 and today is the first time I've sold due to concerns about the company.
I just don't know how many quarters of limited growth they can post in a row before there is some price compression. They are not priced for minimal growth, not at all. Q1 is not going to blow anyone away, at the very least. I only sold off about 15% and I may buy back if the price drops, which I believe it will.
I'm at a point where I need to see something materially positive in terms of growth or earnings. I don't think the Cybertruck halo effect has been a big as I had hoped. Maybe the Cybertruck ramp will start to move the needle, but this is going to take time. I can't operate on faith or "because Elon" any more. Still long term optimistic, but 2024 is looking rough to me.
I just don't know how many quarters of limited growth they can post in a row before there is some price compression. They are not priced for minimal growth, not at all. Q1 is not going to blow anyone away, at the very least. I only sold off about 15% and I may buy back if the price drops, which I believe it will.
I'm at a point where I need to see something materially positive in terms of growth or earnings. I don't think the Cybertruck halo effect has been a big as I had hoped. Maybe the Cybertruck ramp will start to move the needle, but this is going to take time. I can't operate on faith or "because Elon" any more. Still long term optimistic, but 2024 is looking rough to me.
MountainRatMat
Member
Didn't Tesla lump the Cybertruck in with S and X on the Q4 report? So yes, they did record deliveries but we have no idea how many.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Wrote my own very short letter to the judge in the Elon compensation case. Probably will not mean anything, but just felt I have to do something.
Exactly. We just need the TSLA guy to drop his baggage.
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