Keeping in mind your need to prove someone wrong on the internet based on your avatar, what is your take on Tsla?
I think I've been pretty clear on that point?
Very broadly I expect fairly range-bound trading overall for the next 18+ months, that delivery growth will be very very mild, certainly sub-20 percent--- I think hitting 2M for the year is a best case scenario and find the folks who have still been calling for 2.4 and 2.5 million to be.... in need of more research.
I think energy will become a larger, welcome, part of the financial results, but just the single megapack factory will not be enough to fully offset the low-by-previous-standards #s auto will be putting up margin wise, and that EPS this year will be much lower than folks were predicting back in the glory days of 30% margins forever.
And that we're not going to have much chance of returning to previous ATHs for a good while when all this is happening-- after which, assuming excellent execution by the company, we'd return to a period of rapid growth and improving margins, prompting another very nice run up in share price, thanks to next gen vehicles.
I don't expect robots to have any meaningful revenue contribution in those 18+ months, and I expect FSD to have very little (there'd be a trickle if the EU gets FSDbeta made available, but the take rate even before the EU was nerfing features there even on EAP has always been poor- so it's not going to be massive- and we're not getting robotaxis in this period at all)
What's your take?
Why are you here on this thread?
I've been here for years- I'm a tesla investor, this is the investor discussion thread- do you question everyone's motivations or am I special in some way?
Do you still believe in Tsla as an investment?
Long term absolutely, I still have what many financial experts would call an hilariously dumb % of my net worth invested in the company-- but that's $ I can afford to wait out this lull with-- and as someone who has also been a member of the 'other' thread for years I can also still make money during flat and down periods by being the house and letting others pay me to make less informed bets.
But I can certainly understand why, seeing facts on the ground for this lull period we are in, someone else might choose to have sold and put the $ somewhere it's likely to do better in that period--esp. if they're not comfortable playing around in things like selling CCs... or perhaps they're someone who will need it sooner than the couple years or more it'll take to get back to ATHs and did something else with it as a result- that too I could understand.
Glad to see you are still on board.
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