Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

new day low again, $170.4. We will see $169.42 today.

FTFY

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Cathy Wood pulled a Bradbury

Did Steven Bradbury / Cathy Wood "win"? Absolutely


But we don't care about the past, we care about who can predict what's next.

Do I think Bradbury would win the next race? Of course not.

Likewise, there was a bit of good strategy in Cathy's approach, but also a lot of right place / right time.

So no one should really trust her too much going forward, just like many of the Tesla investors who've converted into Youtube celebrities and have shown no general investing competency.

That's what this all boils down to. Homers in here want to shout "scoreboard" at every legitimate criticism, because, well they have nothing else to support them.

They too had a smidge of patience, smarts, but a lot of right place / right time.

But that doesn't legtimizie the hubris to think now you definitely know what your talking about on the next wave of investment strategy in this company.

 

[Tony73]

They only way to do that today is to lower the cost.

Moving forward, if it's lauded and great, it can sell at a higher cost, but over $10k is never going to be attached to an extremely high % of vehicles.

IMO, the best move for Tesla would be to phase out the purchase price and have a more reasonable subscription price, like $100 per month with options like "trip" or "weekend" purchases.

I actually think the high cost was a way to limit uptake to the most motivated buyers while the tech was still in development.
A reduction in price would be very bullish

 

[uscbucsfan]

I actually think the high cost was a way to limit uptake to the most motivated buyers while the tech was still in development.

Maybe. At one point Elon said it would only increase in price when it was at $15k, but then it dropped to $12k. Now they are allowing transfers (2 quarters in a row).

I think the subscription model, in the end, is the best for the company.

 

[2daMoon]

Optimus has something new to aim for...

I'm thinking we are getting closer to AI robot practicality than many seem to believe.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I really don't understand why people make such assumptions. BYD makes busses that sell well with excellent reputation. Their stationary batteresis sell well for large utility-level deployment as well as residential, and their solar panels are competitive too. The larger vehicles are getting positive attention, although Top Gear is less than totally convinced with the Seal:
https://www.topgear.com/car-reviews/byd/seal

With so many models the 1/2 price cheap car thesis is becoming pretty obviously out of date.
Further, most people familiar with Chinese accounting and cost structures are not convinced that the narrow margins are quite what most westerners assume they are.

Not sure if you meant me as in people. To clarify, my assumption is that there's no margins on their $15K car. Are you saying there is? Because margins are counted differently? You're right, I don't understand Chinese accounting, but if the accounting methods were equal to USA, margins still? Or ?

I'm not crazy about the Seal on looks. I think they tried too hard to modernize, like somebody discovered Fusion 360 Forms in stretching the interior lines as if warp drive was engaging. Then again, most newer cars look like they want to go to the dark side.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Optimus has something to aim for...

The verbal pause of "uuuh" makes me think it's fake.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Optimus has something new to aim for...

I'm thinking we are getting closer to AI robot practicality than many seem to believe.

Figure 01: Showing off... investors watching $$$

Optimus: How's that shirt folding coming along? I'm starting to sound like a fool.

 

[2daMoon]

The verbal pause of "uuuh" makes me think it's fake.

Yeah, I'm still a little skeptical about Figure to some extent. Comes across as too good to be true.

Then again, maybe OpenAI is adding in an "uh" as part of its natural processing of data after watching examples of humans doing the same.

Regardless, this is something for Optimus to aim for. (I giggle a little thinking about responses Grok might come up with.)

 

[uscbucsfan]

Yeah, I'm still a little skeptical about Figure to some extent. Comes across as too good to be true.

Then again, maybe OpenAI is adding in an "uh" as part of its natural processing of data after watching examples of humans doing the same.

Regardless, this is something for Optimus to aim for.

It also stutters, which makes it seem like it's a person just talking.

Figure is considered the leader with Bots currently, but until they actually show them in the real world, I remain skeptical as well.

 

[ggies07]

Figure is considered the leader with Bots currently, but until they actually show them in the real world, I remain skeptical as well.

Same goes for lots of Tesla Bot enthusiasts on here who think it's already a home run....looks like Figure just hit a grand slam. Elon must be tisming to the max right now.

 

[Drax7]

I'm not sure if Tesla will be ready this year because there is still a lot of training to do on parking lots and how to pick up and drop off passengers. Also, I'm not sure if Tesla is already working on the basic, boring, rideshare stuff like the hailing app for the passengers and working out the basic logistics of running a rideshare fleet.

I think the way Tesla will roll it out is just like Waymo did. They will start with one city and even have safety drivers at first. When they are confident that the system is ready, they will take the safety drivers out of the car. But even then, Tesla will still have standby drivers to go and get a car if it gets stuck or gets in an accident.

At that point, Tesla's service will have caught up with Waymo. The difference is, Tesla will do so at a fraction of the cost and a very fast time to market.

As Tesla's system continues to rapidly improve, Tesla will expand and surpass Waymo by a country mile. The service will become wildly profitable and ordinary Tesla owners will be invited to join in on the gold rush.

Getting started this year might be a little aggressive, but it's not impossible. I'm thinking 2025 or 2026 is pretty likely though.

Imitation learning is easy, watch a million videos on parking and you are an expert.
None of this , IF blah blah THEN blah blah, which leads to infinite blah blah cases

 

[2daMoon]

I'm holding out for Optimus to do a stand-up improv routine at a comedy club, after mixing and serving drinks.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Same goes for lots of Tesla Bot enthusiasts on here who think it's already a home run....looks like Figure just hit a grand slam. Elon must be tisming to the max right now.

We really don't know how it just did what it did. Impressive and I also feel like robots are coming along pretty fast, and from multiple players. I also don't expect a response from Tesla as they talk much less now.

Based on prior EM statements, I would bet that most of their AI focus is on FSD this quarter. Maybe Optimus is falling behind Figure, but also what is learned on FSD may contribute even more to Optimus. In the mean time they can focus on Optimus costs, quality, efficiency, and production on the hardware side.

 

[2daMoon]

We really don't know how it just did what it did. Impressive and I also feel like robots are coming along pretty fast, and from multiple players. I also don't expect a response from Tesla as they talk much less now.

Based on prior EM statements, I would bet that most of their AI focus is on FSD this quarter. Maybe Optimus is falling behind Figure, but also what is learned on FSD may contribute even more to Optimus. In the mean time they can focus on Optimus costs, quality, efficiency, and production on the hardware side.

Also consider, how between Figure and Tesla, which is better poised to ramp mass production?

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm holding out for Optimus to do a stand-up improv routine at a comedy club, after mixing and serving drinks.

On April 1st please!!! Then gets on a mountain bike and rides off too work.

 

[Captkerosene]

Time for Optimus to challenge that Figure bot to a fight. We could get the "Ready to Rumble" guy and have Rogan referree. They're gettin' a little too cocky over there.

 

[SOULPEDL]

This is what I think of Fig 1.

Such a tease!

 

[Mengy]

The verbal pause of "uuuh" makes me think it's fake.

Not me, most AI speech generators will throw in "uhs" and such to seem more human. To me it's a tell that it isn't faked.

 

[unk45]

Not sure if you meant me as in people. To clarify, my assumption is that there's no margins on their $15K car. Are you saying there is? Because margins are counted differently? You're right, I don't understand Chinese accounting, but if the accounting methods were equal to USA, margins still? Or ?

I'm not crazy about the Seal on looks. I think they tried too hard to modernize, like somebody discovered Fusion 360 Forms in stretching the interior lines as if warp drive was engaging. Then again, most newer cars look like they want to go to the dark side.

Actually I did not mean you. As for making money on the 'Dolphin Mini' and 'Seagull' depending on market it is hard to imagine much margin, especially because at least in some markets they include a home charger purchase and installation. Especially with the level of standard features profits must be elusive.

The title of the article below in English:

"In an historic year, BYD grows almost 70 times in Brazil and sells more electric cars than all competitors put together"

These are the results to date in Brazil. I link the Portuguese use your choice of translation, Goole especially is becoming nearly fluent:

Em ano histórico, BYD cresce quase 70 vezes no Brasil e vende mais carros elétricos do que todos os concorrentes somados – BYD Brasil | Energia Limpa e Mobilidade Elétrica

www.byd.com.br

The article discusses cars, even though their inroads in stationary storage, busses and Solar Panels are more advanced in Brazil since those are already manufactured in Brazil, while cars are still all imported with local production to begin in mid-2025.