Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

You're seeing some significant improvement, but it's at a time where significant code changes are being merged in. Based on the historic pattern they will finish the major merges, and then run into another wall/white trailer.

I'm not sure there is much of a "code" right now.
I think it's almost certain that this new version will run into another local maximum, but this time many of us hope it will in fact higher, in skills, than the average/good driver.
Nobody knows at this point. If you surpass it, then you got a good product and the data to show regulatory entities.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Probably referring to FSDb 12.3.1 starting to go to Canada now. (TeslaFi shows ~45 installs, with more pending.)

Woohoo

 

[Krugerrand]

Plus the people here who are "waiting for 140"... no?

I hope they turn to dust waiting, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the SP went there. The narrative has existed for a fricking year+ that the gap must be filled.

If an opportunity arrives via combined manipulation, constant macro panic, Tesla being between company growth phases, and fictitious accounts of OMG! flogged throughout media and Internet venues, then yeah self-fulfilling prophecy rules the day. Congratulations to the ********.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I hope they turn to dust waiting, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the SP went there. The narrative has existed for a fricking year+ that the gap must be filled.

If an opportunity arrives via combined manipulation, constant macro panic, Tesla being between company growth phases, and fictitious accounts of OMG! flogged throughout media and Internet venues, then yeah self-fulfilling prophecy rules the day. Congratulations to the ********.

Are you referring to this gap since 4/26/23 at about 153? Haven't they moved on in life?

I've got a gap too, one of them starts around 350. Let's fill that one instead shall we.
Let's shall!

 

[capster]

I hope they turn to dust waiting, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the SP went there. The narrative has existed for a fricking year+ that the gap must be filled.

If an opportunity arrives via combined manipulation, constant macro panic, Tesla being between company growth phases, and fictitious accounts of OMG! flogged throughout media and Internet venues, then yeah self-fulfilling prophecy rules the day. Congratulations to the ********.

There were an additional 6,366,103 shares shorted reported for the 3/15/24 settlement date. That is up to 102,298,924 shares shorted.

That is 5,814,795 over the previous peak reported in the last 12 months which was 96,484,129 for the 6/15/23 settlement date.

Not a surprising report given the doomerers and gloomerers moping about the thread here.

I doubt there will be that that many actual sellers whatever the P&D or earnings even if there is a manufactured "Eek!" plunge when they come out (it’ll just mean more shares shorted that will need to be bought back sooner than later). So what is the shorts’ near term end game?

I’m not going to call this another widow maker trade (yet) though it does look like a crowded trade.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/short-interest

 

[SOULPEDL]

Let's plant this thought in their minds: If Tesla executes on Operation Burnt Hair, this might be a good time since the Shorting is at a maximum.

For the maximum "Singed effect", when should the extreme news come out (like robots working, or something amazing with FSD)?
Before they cover right? So the weekend? (Pure hypothetical, but also possible).

 

[Drumheller]

Honda making changes to dealership model, possibly to help transition to EVs. Comments full of hate and misinformation about EVs.

Here is the link if you wish to read the replies

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772995310836388319

 

[2daMoon]

Let's plant this thought in their minds: If Tesla executes on Operation Burnt Hair, this might be a good time since the Shorting is at a maximum.

For the maximum "Singed effect", when should the extreme news come out (like robots working, or something amazing with FSD)?
Before they cover right? So the weekend? (Pure hypothetical, but also possible).

I like the cut of your "jab"... at the Shorties.

 

[cliff harris]

You're seeing some significant improvement, but it's at a time where significant code changes are being merged in. Based on the historic pattern they will finish the major merges, and then run into another wall/white trailer.

I really doubt it. I actually think this time is very different. And I say that as a bitter observer of FSD non-progress since I first paid for it in 2015.
All the local-maxima that have resulted in stalled progress in the past have been due to algorithmic changes. They kept changing the way they approach the problem, and thought that if they really worked at it, the new code paradigm would get them there. There was the whole 'lets swap to using video not images' 4D change, the 'occupancy network' stuff, the 'lets use raw photon counts' stuff, etc etc.

But what Tesla are doing now is not like any of that. TBH they are doing now what I thought they were originally going to do from the start, which is a programmatically extremely simple approach: Train a MASSIVE neural network on huge amounts of data, and let it control the car.

This is totally different, because improvements to NN outputs are almost entirely based on the volume of quality data. Thats it. Not hundreds of C++ coders like me writing complex spaghetti code in the millions of lines, and hoping it all works. They still need SOME code in there, to control for things like obeying local laws that real-world drivers may ignore, but nothing like what was required before.

I was an FSD skeptic, converted to true believer with this version. And as an investor its trebly good because:
1) Its big data dependent, and nobody has even 1% of the data Tesla has, so cannot compete
2) Its big data dependent. Its not some source code you can steal. Even in china. You would need semi trucks full of disk drives to steal it.
3) Its scalable very fast, very easily, and very predictably.

I actually think we might be at the SLOW point of true FSD. The bit where they merge the NN stuff into the other codebase. From here on, expect a lot of updates, and them to improve *everything* a little bit every time. Based purely on adding more video data from detected edge cases. Things could get scarily good, scarily fast.

 

[CitizenKane]

Which targets, specifically, is it that Tesla has communicated and failed to deliver on?

The most obvious one I would say is the vehicle delivery CAGR of 50% which they haven't reached in the past three year period, will not reach in 2024 and have even dropped in the last quarterly report Outlook. Sure, they hedged this previously by talking about "multi year horizon" but now it seems dubious they even believe in that themselves.

Other things such as positive auto gross margin development, launch of meaningful Semi deliveries, next gen vehicle launch date, FSD income etc I can agree are more things the investor community have derived from various comments from Musk and others in the past and not necessarily targets communicated officially. However that may be, I think the market's consensus is that Tesla hasn't delivered as hoped/believed a couple of years ago, which also makes the market skeptic about its future opportunities. I happen to be among those that still believe Tesla will outperform what the market expects in a couple of years but do understand the market's logic and I don't ascribe the current low multiples (low compared to the past, that is) to media spinning or market manipulation.

 

[Knightshade]

I really doubt it. I actually think this time is very different. And I say that as a bitter observer of FSD non-progress since I first paid for it in 2015.

FSD did not go on sale until ~October 2016.

 

[Discoducky]

My 2 cents on Dojo...

Exec summary: Proceed with Dojo as Pros greatly outweigh Cons as Dojo will provide additive compute and AI compute will continue to be demanded at the highest premium of any tech product for the foreseeable future.

Pros:

• Long-term prospects of entire AI stack vertical integration for FSD/Optimus
  • Ultimate flexibility/agility to iterate at every architecture level
• Focuses team on ground up efficiencies in HW, SW, data center build out, entire stack...etc
  • Outputs/learnings can be used to drive nVidia future roadmap
• Creates a race to get home grown effort to move/iterate faster than nVidia
• Tends to find more cost savings all the way down to how fabs are designed and built
• Completely removes 3rd party largest profit costs
• Provides ultimate bargaining position against rising costs from nVidia
• Provides stop gap or abandonment from nVidia providing complete or partial solutions

Cons:

• Risk of cost of development in billions could outweigh savings even over long-term
• Keeps teams from converging on a single solution impacting overall progress
• Risks disincentivizing nVidia
  • from providing earliest, best and most chips to Tesla first
  • best possible discounts
  • allowing prioritized requests for roadmap improvements to
    • HW
    • SW
    • Service/Maintenance

 

[Krugerrand]

Are you referring to this gap since 4/26/23 at about 153? Haven't they moved on in life?

I've got a gap too, one of them starts around 350. Let's fill that one instead shall we.
Let's shall!

View attachment 1032607

No, the $140ish one from the last made up SP plunge over a year ago. They’ve been talking about it non-stop over on the options thread.

 

[Musskiah]

There were an additional 6,366,103 shares shorted reported for the 3/15/24 settlement date. That is up to 102,298,924 shares shorted.

That is 5,814,795 over the previous peak reported in the last 12 months which was 96,484,129 for the 6/15/23 settlement date.

Not a surprising report given the doomerers and gloomerers moping about the thread here.

I doubt there will be that that many actual sellers whatever the P&D or earnings even if there is a manufactured "Eek!" plunge when they come out (it’ll just mean more shares shorted that will need to be bought back sooner than later). So what is the shorts’ near term end game?

I’m not going to call this another widow maker trade (yet) though it does look like a crowded trade.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/short-interest

Wonderful news! As I had pointed out in a previous post, paradoxically TSLA's short interest tends to correlate with a minimum share price. I hope you all remember to wear your Burnt Hair the second half of this year.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Honda making changes to dealership model, possibly to help transition to EVs. Comments full of hate and misinformation about EVs.

View attachment 1032612

View attachment 1032613

Here is the link if you wish to read the replies

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772995310836388319

Newbie Dealership questions... How does the manufacturer cut margins on a Dealership? And are we talking the one's currently on lots today, or new one's coming to the Dealer?

And the reference to Ford in '22/23... Is this what you mean? It sounds different with Honda. I recall GM and Ford Dealers raising prices around Covid/parts shortage, and only now are prices starting to come down some. Then Ford slapped that ~1M fee on getting EV certified, and many took the plan - nearly 2,000 Dealers, (including all tiers offered). Lots of push back, but recently (Dec '23) Ford relaxed some as they wound down e-Lightening production.

I guess I don't know the auto business. (Not that I will need to know someday.)

 

[SOULPEDL]

Wonderful news! As I had pointed out in a previous post, paradoxically TSLA's short interest tends to correlate with a minimum share price. I hope you all remember to wear your Burnt Hair the second half of this year.

Second half??? I was hoping for next week myself. But who can time this stock, really!

 

[jamaatta]

Free trial month of FSD Beta = much more training data (edge cases, etc).. And less biased users.

 

[Unpilot]

I really doubt it. I actually think this time is very different. And I say that as a bitter observer of FSD non-progress since I first paid for it in 2015.
All the local-maxima that have resulted in stalled progress in the past have been due to algorithmic changes. They kept changing the way they approach the problem, and thought that if they really worked at it, the new code paradigm would get them there. There was the whole 'lets swap to using video not images' 4D change, the 'occupancy network' stuff, the 'lets use raw photon counts' stuff, etc etc.

But what Tesla are doing now is not like any of that. TBH they are doing now what I thought they were originally going to do from the start, which is a programmatically extremely simple approach: Train a MASSIVE neural network on huge amounts of data, and let it control the car.

This is totally different, because improvements to NN outputs are almost entirely based on the volume of quality data. Thats it. Not hundreds of C++ coders like me writing complex spaghetti code in the millions of lines, and hoping it all works. They still need SOME code in there, to control for things like obeying local laws that real-world drivers may ignore, but nothing like what was required before.

I was an FSD skeptic, converted to true believer with this version. And as an investor its trebly good because:
1) Its big data dependent, and nobody has even 1% of the data Tesla has, so cannot compete
2) Its big data dependent. Its not some source code you can steal. Even in china. You would need semi trucks full of disk drives to steal it.
3) Its scalable very fast, very easily, and very predictably.

I actually think we might be at the SLOW point of true FSD. The bit where they merge the NN stuff into the other codebase. From here on, expect a lot of updates, and them to improve *everything* a little bit every time. Based purely on adding more video data from detected edge cases. Things could get scarily good, scarily fast.

Now extrapolate that to optimus.

I believe we are in for a surprise ....soon.

 

[SOULPEDL]

No, the $140ish one from the last made up SP plunge over a year ago. They’ve been talking about it non-stop over on the options thread.

Next one over is 113. So I assume 140'ish was an arbitrary gap pushed by media? Or TMC?
Sorry... and are you trying to get me to go to the Options thread?

 

[2daMoon]

The most obvious one I would say is the vehicle delivery CAGR of 50% which they haven't reached in the past three year period, will not reach in 2024 and have even dropped in the last quarterly report Outlook. Sure, they hedged this previously by talking about "multi year horizon" but now it seems dubious they even believe in that themselves.

Other things such as positive auto gross margin development, launch of meaningful Semi deliveries, next gen vehicle launch date, FSD income etc I can agree are more things the investor community have derived from various comments from Musk and others in the past and not necessarily targets communicated officially. However that may be, I think the market's consensus is that Tesla hasn't delivered as hoped/believed a couple of years ago, which also makes the market skeptic about its future opportunities. I happen to be among those that still believe Tesla will outperform what the market expects in a couple of years but do understand the market's logic and I don't ascribe the current low multiples (low compared to the past, that is) to media spinning or market manipulation.

Maybe it would be better to ask you to provide quotes with dates for each target you claim Tesla has stated and failed upon.

Context might be helpful for CAGR as well. Is the CAGR statement in regard to YoY Production, or one of the many balance sheet metrics?

Which specific metric are you speaking of?​

​

Over what time span are you declaring this CAGR metric a "failure" for Tesla?​

​

You mentioned a 3 year period for deliveries, and that seems a short period to measure when Tesla's claim was made much earlier and referenced 2030 as the target for a 50% CAGR. What is the Delivery CAGR for the entire period so far?​

​

In order to have a Combined Average, all of the end of year data for the period stated should be "combined" to calculate the average, shouldn't it?​

​

I also remember someone at Tesla stating how this CAGR will see off years along the way.​

​

​

Additional information to confirm such statements is always helpful in order that others might confirm the data supporting them.

Edit: I believe that Elon's original statement was regarding a 50% Production CAGR through 2030, I haven't been able to find what year this was stated. A Rob Maurer article mentioned Elon reiterating this number in 2020, so it dates back prior to that. If, say, it was stated in 2017, that would cover that year through 2023, a period of 7 years. Anyone have the 7 year Production CAGR handy?