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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Got a notification for a boring “bug fixes” update last night, and got in the car this morning to discover I had gotten my FSD trial!! (2023 Model 3, 12.3.2.1)
Only got to put about 15 minutes on it going to work but no interventions and so much more confident and natural than the 11.4 I tried for a month last year. Gonna be a fun month!
Only got to put about 15 minutes on it going to work but no interventions and so much more confident and natural than the 11.4 I tried for a month last year. Gonna be a fun month!
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I guess since the distinction you're making is in regards to 5+ years old cars, I'm wondering...does it really matter at this point? Tesla offered something "coming in the future" and while they seem to be approaching the solution, still don't have it yet. It's been so long a wait for some. Unless someone wins a class action lawsuit here, it just seems like everyone is waiting for FSD. Maybe Tesla lawyers are tracking the difference between the groups that you suggest, but it looks to me like Tesla and Elon are working on a single FSD solution for all purchasers.
BTW- I agree with your factual distinction, just not that Tesla has active plans to deliver differently.
The pessimistic version doesn't even make sense. The only way Tesla stops growing is by running out of cash or they abandon all projects. They are know for never abandoning large growth vector projects even when they are running out of cash so I really have no idea under what circumstances growth stops forever.
Well we know the auto growth is at the very least slowing down drastically for a year or two, Tesla themselves have told us this and we can see it in the Q1 projections. We'll know just how slow in a few days, but it ain't looking great.
With Gen3 coming in two years we'll see growth again, but for now the big growth story seems done for a bit (for autos at least).
Musskiah
DisGruntled
Ray Zurzwell has been calling for AGI singularity by 2029 since the 80s. It appears OpenAI has extremely advanced AI they aren't sharing with the public. Sam Altman agrees with this timeframe of 2029. It is inevitable people; Robotaxis are less than 5 years away. Me? I'm in the 2026-2027 Robotaxi camp.
Yeah but stocks are not valued at current cash flows but future cash flows. This is not the first time Tesla stops growthing as they saturate the price segment they are in. However they always have the next product segment in the works for their next phase. This happened with from roadster to S, and for s/x to 3/y. This allows them full saturation of said market without introducing osbourning, allow them to build out their service networks, and allowing time for suppliers to catch up. Like Tesla couldn't handle a low priced high volume car 3 years ago because today we see service centers and charging network being finally adequate for their 3/Y insane growth. The next gen is 10x the volume.
Have to realize that unlike gas cars when Toyota came, they had a huge support network already thanks to gas cars being around for the past 50 years. Tesla pretty much needs to build everything from the ground up, from "gas stations" to supply chain.
Musskiah
DisGruntled
False. 40k semis (eventually 50k) and 150k Cybertrucks (eventually 250k) runrate within 12-18 months is the revenue equivalent of 500k M3s (eventually 700k+). That's "only" 25% growth (and eventually 35% growth) in Autos in the next year to year and a half, sure. But FSD and Energy are about to kersplode over that timeframe too!
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I don't recall ever saying Tesla has active plans to deliver differently- Simply that the thing promised to buyers during purchase is very different between the two pre/post ~April 2019 buyer groups.... and thus Teslas technical/legal liability in what they owe those people is significantly different.
For the folks in the 2nd group, FSDb (even the older version) effectively delivers everything promised once they get the vision-only version up to parity with the USS version (ie not just autopark, but summon as well).
For the folks in the 1st group they're still owed considerably more.
THAT said- I certainly expect Tesla is still working toward delivering that considerably more, and that it would also be given to those in the first group if/when Tesla is able to deliver it.
As far as lawsuits go- there's been a number of owners who've sued in small claims and gotten a full refund of FSD (esp. the older, more elaborate functionality, version that Tesla has not delivered to this point)-- class action would be tougher since most owners specifically waived their right to settle disputes that way as part of the vehicle purchase agreement-- so there's been at least a few people who decided to stop waiting even if most haven't.... (then there's the FSD transfer thing that's a whole other can of worms since you're effectively giving up the "better promise" version for the current more-limited-promise version).
Is it just me?... does anyone else feel like CT is being underestimated ... it will take share from multiple segments , Large/Med Pickup truck, large/med SUV, station wagon
this may have been discussed before but the aftermarket for the CT is going to be huge ... and eventually it will become a virtuous cycle with newly created businesses ... the blank stainless triangle will be personalized in countless ways
this may have been discussed before but the aftermarket for the CT is going to be huge ... and eventually it will become a virtuous cycle with newly created businesses ... the blank stainless triangle will be personalized in countless ways
Musskiah
DisGruntled
Totally! I have never purchased a truck in my life, as I'm certain Kim Kardashian hasn't. I know over a dozen Tesla owners in my neightborhood who never owned a truck, but are buying CyberTruck.
Just wait until the CyberVan comes out of nowhere on the CyberTruck platform!
The Global fleet of trucks and vans are nearly equivalent to midsize sedan and crossover/SUV (3&Y) COMBINED! Think about that for a second. CyberTruck and CyberVan could number in the 2M+ PER YEAR range!
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Is anyone here aware of Xiaomi SU7? It got 50,000 orders in one day. The spec is comparable to Model 3 and the price is 10% lower. It might already impact M3 sales in China for the coming months.
Last time someone said don't worry about Xiaomi, which is just a phone manufacturer, and how could it make a good car?
I somehow agreed with that, but now I think that is a really careless underestimate.
Although Xiaomi is losing money on each car they sell, but their phone-car ecosystem is pretty good. There are millions of Xiaomi phone users in China, and they can all integrate their information and Apps into Xiaomi SU7 easily, and that is quite an attraction for them to consider SU7.
Many said Friday TSLA dropped because of SU7. I hope the impact will not extend.
Currently the advantage of TESLA M3 is the supercharge network only. Not sure about FSD in China.
Last time someone said don't worry about Xiaomi, which is just a phone manufacturer, and how could it make a good car?
I somehow agreed with that, but now I think that is a really careless underestimate.
Although Xiaomi is losing money on each car they sell, but their phone-car ecosystem is pretty good. There are millions of Xiaomi phone users in China, and they can all integrate their information and Apps into Xiaomi SU7 easily, and that is quite an attraction for them to consider SU7.
Many said Friday TSLA dropped because of SU7. I hope the impact will not extend.
Currently the advantage of TESLA M3 is the supercharge network only. Not sure about FSD in China.
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False. 40k semis (eventually 50k) and 150k Cybertrucks (eventually 250k) runrate within 12-18 months is the revenue equivalent of 500k M3s (eventually 700k+). That's "only" 25% growth (and eventually 35% growth) in Autos in the next year to year and a half, sure. But FSD and Energy are about to kersplode over that timeframe too!
That's still much lower growth than the market is used to with Tesla, and far under the 50% CAGR the market wanted.
Honestly, do you really think Tesla will make 40K Semis and 150K CT's this year? Giga Nevada expansion is still under construction and the CT ramp is going nice but slowly, it's nowhere near anything resembling 150K/yr yet.
I want TSLA to moon as much as any HODL'er but we have to be realistic too or we're just setting ourselves up for disappointment.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
What if we want to chill out and live off the dividends?
Some inventions are, probably, 25-30 years later than the people in 1900 guessed. I'd suggest taking the word "inevitable" and turning it into "probably" to get away from fixed line of thinking to more of a growth mindset. The latter helps more with investing!
Paintings reveal what people in 1900 thought the year 2000 would look like
Lots of the ideas involve mechanized devices and flying while others, strangely, involve people interacting with marine life
www.independent.co.uk
Here's How People 100 Years Ago Thought We'd Be Living Today
In 100 years, there will be flying taxis and people will routinely travel to the moon. Knowledge will be instilled into school children by wires attached to their heads. These may sound like the predictions of modern-day futurists, but they're actually how people a century ago saw the...
Musskiah
DisGruntled
12-18 months meaning end of Q125-Q325.
Current runrate for CyberTruck is 1k/wk or 52k/yr, so yes, I am confident 3k/wk runrate or 156k/yr by EOY for CT.
Semi will be at "volume production" by EOY according to Elon. Volume production for MY is 5k/wk, so for Semi maybe 500-1000/wk. I think by Q325, a 40k/yr runrate for Semi is all but in the bag. We have already seen Zanegler's YouTube channel the production line is extremely simple because it is basically few assembly stations - not vertically integrated like S3XY CT production lines.
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Musskiah
DisGruntled
I hear you.Some inventions are, probably, 25-30 years later than the people in 1900 guessed. I'd suggest taking the word "inevitable" and turning it into "probably" to get away from fixed line of thinking to more of a growth mindset. The latter helps more with investing!
Paintings reveal what people in 1900 thought the year 2000 would look like
Lots of the ideas involve mechanized devices and flying while others, strangely, involve people interacting with marine life
Here's How People 100 Years Ago Thought We'd Be Living Today
In 100 years, there will be flying taxis and people will routinely travel to the moon. Knowledge will be instilled into school children by wires attached to their heads. These may sound like the predictions of modern-day futurists, but they're actually how people a century ago saw the...www.wired.com
Some historical perspective: When Kurtzwell first predicted 2029 singularity, it was in the 1980s - the consensus from "experts" was then 100+ years (2080-2100). Since then, the timeline from the so called "experts" has been reduced ever closer to 2029, the date Kutzwell first predicted. When ChatGPT3 came out 4 years ago, it was still 80 years (2100), then ChatGPT 4 made the "experts" think 20 years (2040s), and now...the consensus is just 8 years (2032). So in this case, it appears Ray's prediction was probably either correct or even too pessimistic. Technically, yes I should use "probable," however when timelines constrict, the term "inevitable" does have merit.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
So you like censorship? He’s putting his life on the line for society and you couldn’t give a shot?
Cybervan is my dream vehicle. FSD, AWD, off-road capable, 300+ miles of range, room to live and sleep inside. For me that's been the dream for years. Model Y has been great, but I'm ready for the Cybervan!
cliff harris
Member
Your patronisizng tone, suggesting we are all absolute idiots who don't understand the internet is where you lose people. I literally run heavily targeted, optimised ads on social media every day, and made that perfectly clear.
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