Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Hiline]

I have been a Tesla owner for 14 years now and an investor for over 10 years. I am quite disappointed that production and deliveries dropped quarter over quarter, but especially year over year while most automotive companies saw growth. Plant investment has slowed and Elon seems to be bracing for a recession rather than trying to grow the company. Without growth Tesla is just another car company. Now one quarter does not make a trend but for the first time in many years I am worried. And unfortunately for the first time even I think Elon with his tweets has been much more of a hinderance than a help. Maybe he will quiet down and get back to growing Tesla. So I have not yet given up.

Not sure what you mean. Production and deliveries went down because people weren't buying Tesla cars at sustainable prices. It's not because Tesla was not able to make more cars.

 

[Snerruc]

This is somewhat understandable, for most OEMs a refresh means just some new looks here and there, while Tesla does the opposite, which means it’s likely ramping a new line from scratch

S/X some small welcome changes in the exterior, retaining the familiar look, while the rest was totally new

Same as refresh Model 3, tons of underlying changes

However, people only see the surface.

 

[2Pearls]

Wrong. No need to "observe Troy" whatever that is or means. I am bullish on the company long-term, and know that, because it is a ratings magnet, and truly important... it is frequently manipulated. Therefore I am realistic about the stock. It was almost guaranteed to fall vs. the close yesterday, even if the numbers were good they would have any number of other reasons to cause the stock to fall and use that to claim it was because the numbers weren't good enough.

So I sold a bunch last night at $174 and bought it all back this morning at $165/$166.

And, are you going to sell again sometime between now and earnings when we might go into the 150’s/140’s when EPS is down again and the next quarter does not look so good?

I will continue to follow Troy and work on building my 3rd mountain with his analysis while continue holding my core shares that I bought in 2013. I chose to live in reality and not blame everything on manipulation and conspiracy theories. Thanks.

 

[woodisgood]

I noticed the same problem when I bought my MY last year. This was my third Tesla purchase and it was by far the worst experience of the three because it was really hard to get someone local on the phone.

When you are making a big purchase you want to talk to someone on the phone at the place you are buying the car.

Somebody please tweet at Elon about this!

The best salesperson is no salesperson?

 

[Musskiah]

My close friend who is a manager at my local Tesla center (top 20 performing in the country) said this quarter was noticably different than previous quarters because they are not being encouraged (read: forced) to sell every car in the lot. Heretofore, they would entirely deplete inventory at EOQ and then have nothing to sell for weeks as they waited for additional deliveries at the BOQ. As I said in a previous post, they only delivered a measly 23 vehicles on March 31 & there were over 200 vehicles, INCLUDING 4 CYBERTRUCKS, in the lot. Now riddle me this Batman...we know Cybertruck does not suffer a demand issue, so why would they allow 4 Cybertrucks to sit unsold on the last day of the quarter? Answer: they are flattening the delivery curve.

Mmmmmmm mmmmmm that Hopium is mighty tasty

 

[dhrivnak]

Not sure what you mean. Production and deliveries went down because people weren't buying Tesla cars at sustainable prices. It's not because Tesla was not able to make more cars.

I have heard from MANY friends over the last year that while they will consider an EV they will not consider a Tesla. I rarely heard that in the past and NEVER at this intensity. Then many people are put off with the strong push to on-line and the inability to talk to a service person or buy a part. I have learned to work with it. But try to explain to an older friend how the deletion of a turn signal stalk is actually better. Tesla used to listen close to their customers. I am not see that recently.

 

[dhrivnak]

The best salesperson is no salesperson?

Not if you are not tech savvy and the car is very different than from what you are used to.

 

[MC3OZ]

My close friend who is a manager at my local Tesla center (top 20 performing in the country) said this quarter was noticably different than previous quarters because they are not being encouraged (read: forced) to sell every car in the lot. Heretofore, they would entirely deplete inventory at EOQ and then have nothing to sell for weeks as they waited for additional deliveries at the BOQ. As I said in a previous post, they only delivered a measly 23 vehicles on March 31 & there were over 200 vehicles, INCLUDING 4 CYBERTRUCKS, in the lot. Now riddle me this Batman...we know Cybertruck does not suffer a demand issue, so why would they allow 4 Cybertrucks to sit unsold on the last day of the quarter? Answer: they are flattening the delivery curve.

Mmmmmmm mmmmmm that Hopium is mighty tasty

The optimists (including me) have their answers.
And the pessimists have their answers..
The truth is probably somewhere in between, or more like, "all of the above".
One quarter isn't the future, or even a predictor of the future, there are lots of "one off' factors, including perhaps some mistakes that will be rectified at some stage.

The big picture is the future product roadmap, product improvements and future production expansion. IMO nothing fundamental or permanent has changed.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

She isn't doubling down; she's quadrupling down. Clearly she has a very high level of conviction!

I believe she drives a v12 capable Tesla. @Knightshade can you confirm?

 

[growler23]

A lot of folks are feeling down today with these numbers. Not thrilled here, but not down either. As we young at heart folks say, YABO (yet another buying opportunity).
In for 8 more somewhere around $165.
HODL.
--Growler out

 

[Musskiah]

Tesla California sales in 2023 are a good metric for testing whether the CEO's political activism has caused mass left-wing aversion to the Tesla brand such that vehicle sales have been harmed.

Why this matters:

• California's government provides some of the most comprehensive and detailed EV sales data of any regional market in the world
• California is the most prominent left-leaning state in America
• California is the leading EV market in America in terms of both total volume and EV market share, and since the very beginning it has been a leading indicator for EV growth trends elsewhere
• California and SF Bay Area politics have been the specific target of much of Elon's political activism since 2020

Overall, Tesla has continued to maintain a dominant position in the California EV market in the last couple of years. Tesla's share of the general light-duty vehicle (LDV) market in California is now 13%. This all-time record for Tesla is an increase from 11.7% last year and it is second only to Toyota's 15.7%. Tesla accomplished this with a four-vehicle menu that leaves major gaps in the market unserved, such as pickup trucks, full-size SUVs, compact sedans and compact hatchbacks. In 2023, Tesla achieved 61% BEV market share by selling 230k out of 376k total BEVs with at least 200 miles of nominal range. Tesla outsold the next-best competitor, Chevrolet, by almost 12x. This is approximately the same ratio of Tesla to the 2nd-place BEV competitor that Tesla has enjoyed across the US as a whole for many years. Although 61% is down significantly from 73% from last year, Tesla still posted significant 8.2% growth statewide in 2022. Tesla's market share declined because everyone else grew faster.

California Energy Commission (2023). California Energy Commission Zero Emission Vehicle and Infrastructure Statistics. Data last updated [24 Jan 2024]. Retrieved [2 Apr 2024] from Zero Emission Vehicle and Infrastructure Statistics.

View attachment 1034703

View attachment 1034868

Spoiler: Tesla sales figures table

All numbers in thousands.

Year	Tesla % BEV Share	Tesla % LDV Share	Tesla Sold	LDV Sold	BEV Sold
2013	42%	0.5%	9	1,773	21
2014	24%	0.4%	7	1,969	30
2015	30%	0.5%	11	2,217	38
2016	45%	0.8%	17	2,207	38
2017	38%	0.8%	17	2,183	46
2018	72%	3.1%	69	2,252	95
2019	74%	3.3%	70	2,154	95
2020	79%	4.5%	83	1,864	106
2021	75%	6.8%	137	2,016	184
2022	73%	11.6%	213	1,835	292
2023	61%	12.9%	230	1,786	380

Tesla's decline in California market share may be disappointing but it is understandable. Both of the US factories, but especially Fremont, are close to maximum output for the S3XY models for the existing production lines. Also, the S3XY models are already so dominant in California that they may be close to their demand limits under current macroeconomic conditions. The Model Y and Model 3 were the #1 and #2 best-selling vehicles of any kind in California, by a wide margin. The Y sold slightly more than the RAV-4, CR-V, Rogue and Tucson combined. There still may be substantial room for this ceiling to grow over time, as awareness increases and the Supercharger network and service center network continue to expand.

Let's zoom out for context:

• 61% share is still double what it used to be before the Model 3 was introduced
• Competitors emerged from the chip shortage in 2023 and thus were much less supply constrained than during the pandemic. The entire automotive industry had a glut of supply, prices dropped across the industry, and dealership inventories grew.
• 2017 saw a similarly large drop in CA BEV market share when S&X sales peaked and 3 was still in the beginning of Production Hell.
• California is the leading state in the USA for selling compliance EVs at a loss, because California is a huge market with stringent regulatory requirements and it is the most lucrative automotive market in the nation. Tesla is selling into a tilted playing field because customers are subsidizing their losses with earnings from ICE and hybrid sales, but this situation won't last forever.
• 2023 was another weak year of growth for the overall automotive market in California. Overall LDV sales were 10% lower than in the peak years of 2015 through 2018.

View attachment 1034711


View attachment 1034713

Source: California New Car Dealers Association & Experian

California has a overall liberal and leftist population supermajority, but it's a big state with almost 40 million people living it it and it is politically, geographically, culturally, ethnically and economically diverse. The populous coastal counties that comprise the major urban areas are heavily left-leaning, whereas the rural counties are heavily right-leaning, and many other counties are somewhere in between.

In the leftist urban and coastal counties, Tesla did have a decline in their BEV market share from its peak in 2020. In 2023 alone, it declined from 74% to 61%. However, this decline was right in line with the overall trend for California in which Tesla's market share dropped from 73% to 61%. Also, Tesla still showed growth in these left-leaning counties. The only exception was San Mateo county just south of San Francisco and just north of Silicon Valley. San Mateo for some reason had sales collapse by 38% in 2023. I don't have any idea why this happened, but San Mateo is a fairly small market and it was heavily saturated with Teslas until 2022. Despite that lone outlier, overall in the most left-wing counties in California, Tesla actually grew their sales volume by 8.1%, which was almost exactly equal to the Tesla's statewide sales growth of 8.2%.

Even with wide variation in regional demographics, culture and politics, Tesla overall increased sales volume in California pretty evenly throughout the state. Tesla grew the same in woke, socialist metropolises, in liberal suburbs, and in MAGA Trumpland (which does exist in California). Tesla even grew sales by 5% in San Francisco county, which is the bluest county in the state, is the epicenter of the Twitter/X and OpenAI controversy, and has been directly accused by Elon of propagating a radical "woke mind virus" that will destroy civilization as we know it.

View attachment 1034803

Spoiler: Tesla sales for most populous counties

County	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	% Change YoY
Los Angeles	16809	20902	35844	61573	58374	-5%
Orange	9503	11628	18122	26945	31444	17%
Santa Clara	10122	8963	13072	19908	24593	24%
San Diego	5585	7352	11979	16512	19882	20%
Alameda	5714	5418	8418	12444	15039	21%
Riverside	2031	2917	6111	8961	10635	19%
San Bernardino	1694	2241	4604	7495	9271	24%
Contra Costa	2882	3376	5427	7700	8550	11%
Sacramento	1351	1783	3280	5770	7316	27%
San Mateo	3412	3458	5085	11230	6937	-38%
San Francisco	1933	2801	3806	4914	5171	5%
Ventura	1509	1783	3081	4507	4759	6%
San Joaquin	670	846	1819	3062	4610	51%

Unfortunately, Tesla grew sales in California with the help of large price reductions. However, Tesla also reduced prices by the same amount all across the US and similar amounts in all major EV markets around the world. Also, competitors cut prices on their EVs shortly after Tesla did, and inventory has been piling up at their dealerships. It's important to note that Tesla's online ordering and transparent pricing means that we know they were selling vehicles at the same prices throughout California.

All of this evidence casts major doubt on the belief that Elon's political activism has been the primary cause of growth slowdown and price reductions. It is questionable whether it even is a net factor at all. There has been no observed correlation between the political bias of a local market and Tesla's BEV market share. It appears that the broader tough market conditions have affected the whole EV market in the state and worldwide, with BYD the only other player looking decent in 2023. That being said, a lack of correlation doesn't necessarily mean there was no effect. The urban and coastal areas in California have many differences from the rural areas, so maybe Elon's antics were hurting demand in the metro areas but some other factors were tailwinds in these same areas. Still, the simpler and more likely explanation is that the politics did not have a majorly negative effect. Either way, end result is the same and the data shows no cause for alarm.

How do we nominate for Post of Particular Merit?

 

[Knightshade]

My close friend who is a manager at my local Tesla center (top 20 performing in the country) said this quarter was noticably different than previous quarters because they are not being encouraged (read: forced) to sell every car in the lot. Heretofore, they would entirely deplete inventory at EOQ and then have nothing to sell for weeks as they waited for additional deliveries at the BOQ.

Telsas own reported inventory levels do not jibe with your friends claim in general though.

Hilariously it doesn't even jibe with the chart you helpfully posted earlier today showing days of deliveries in inventory-- based on that Tesla hasn't been anywhere near 0 days of delivery inventory in years- they've not even gotten significantly below 15 days worth since mid-late 2022.

Thanks for that chart BTW- I've reproduced it below since it was pretty interesting and directly relevant to your friends claims.

The claim also doesn't really fit with the slew of incentives Tesla threw out to entice buyers to buy before EoQ either (FUSC and FSD transfers, free supercharging miles, free FSD, free color choice, threat of price increase at EOQ, etc)

I believe she drives a v12 capable Tesla. @Knightshade can you confirm?

Can confirm- she owns a 3 and a Y, both of which can get the most current version of FSD.

Cathie Wood loves Tesla so much she has one in Connecticut and one in Florida

“I own two, so I’m covered."

fortune.com

 

[Musskiah]

Tesla is certainly preparing to penetrate the fourth largest car market in the world.

Canalys Insights - Decoding the new Indian EV policy: opportunities for Tesla and beyond (Part 2)

The blog explores the current state of the global electric vehicle (EV) market, highlighting factors impacting EV demand and the opportunities presented in untapped markets like India. Focusing on Tesla's strategies and challenges in entering the Indian market under new EV policies, the blog...

canalys.com

 

[Musskiah]

Telsas own reported inventory levels do not jibe with your friends claim in general though.

Hilariously it doesn't even jibe with the chart you helpfully posted earlier today showing days of deliveries in inventory-- based on that Tesla hasn't been anywhere near 0 days of delivery inventory in years- they've not even gotten significantly below 15 days worth since mid-late 2022.

I said they had not been encouraged to sell every car in the lot this Q. My bad, I misspoke, yes; they didnt entirely deplete inventory, they TRIED to entirely deplete inventory, unsuccessfully. I would edit my post for you if I could. I'll ask him to comment on the previous 4 Qs, but I do know there has been inventory most of the Qs last year. Nowhere near 200 tho.

View attachment 1034922

The chart you posted is missing last 3Qs of 2023 as well as Q124. See the spike in inventory this Q compared to Q423? I have a feeling that is the effect that was realized with this new leniency.

 

[xhawk101]

I was hoping to use a Cybertruck as a camper, but the 3K$ CT Tent is not what I hoped for. Any ideas if the third party camping attachments like the Cyberlandr will be feasible now that the CT is officially released?

Same here looking to sleep in my CT bed and not liking the 3k Tesla tent. Also want to have small AC/heat option. Any tent options that fit the bed?

 

[Mengy]

The P&D numbers made me sad this morning, but then this afternoon I went for an extended drive in my Model Y using the free trial of FSD v12.3.3 and it's just so dang good that it made me giddy again, reminding me why I'm invested in TSLA. Autonomy is closer than ever and its incredibly impressive right now. It even managed to impress my skeptical brother, he couldn't believe how good FSD actually is. We drove 60 miles, no interventions at all, though it did drive like a Sunday driver now and then. It was raining pretty hard though too.

I really think FSD Level 5 is only a year or two away right now. It's easy to laugh at that notion given Elon's "crying wolf" about it being "next year" for so many years, but this time it really feels like we're closing in on those trailing 9's of Level 5. Unless progress on FSD just stagnates I don't see how it isn't solved in a year or two given how awesome it is right now.

 

[EVNow]

even if the ride is made the day before.

I think it works best if you book when you need it (or 10 minutes before). Basically its not good to schedule one later.

I did that once to an airport the guy who had picked my ride said he is getting late - cancelled him and got another ride in 5 minutes. After that I just hail when needed and that works fine.

 

[Ipcress]

First nudes of Cybertruck pack

There seems to be a lot of space on top of the cells, or the bottom

The top of the pack is usually made of steel on other Teslas, the bottom aluminum so it melts and the pack drops in the unlikely event of a fire, making it easier to extinguish it

Maybe that huge gap is for safety, specifically considering off road use

Either that or we will have longer 4680s

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775245471868473551

More cowbell.

 

[Thumper]

I own a 22 S LR and am sad to see so few S/X sales this quarter. I believe no car in history has offered the combination of acceleration, handling, space, ride quality, safety and amenities as this car. At the price it is a major bargain. If the numbers stay this low, it seems it will be hard to justify the production space the line takes up at Fremont.

 

[2daMoon]

Tesla California sales in 2023 are a good metric for testing whether the CEO's political activism has caused mass left-wing aversion to the Tesla brand such that vehicle sales have been harmed.

Why this matters:

• California's government provides some of the most comprehensive and detailed EV sales data of any regional market in the world
• California is the most prominent left-leaning state in America
• California is the leading EV market in America in terms of both total volume and EV market share, and since the very beginning it has been a leading indicator for EV growth trends elsewhere
• California and SF Bay Area politics have been the specific target of much of Elon's political activism since 2020

Overall, Tesla has continued to maintain a dominant position in the California EV market in the last couple of years. Tesla's share of the general light-duty vehicle (LDV) market in California is now 13%. This all-time record for Tesla is an increase from 11.7% last year and it is second only to Toyota's 15.7%. Tesla accomplished this with a four-vehicle menu that leaves major gaps in the market unserved, such as pickup trucks, full-size SUVs, compact sedans and compact hatchbacks. In 2023, Tesla achieved 61% BEV market share by selling 230k out of 376k total BEVs with at least 200 miles of nominal range. Tesla outsold the next-best competitor, Chevrolet, by almost 12x. This is approximately the same ratio of Tesla to the 2nd-place BEV competitor that Tesla has enjoyed across the US as a whole for many years. Although 61% is down significantly from 73% from last year, Tesla still posted significant 8.2% growth statewide in 2022. Tesla's market share declined because everyone else grew faster.

California Energy Commission (2023). California Energy Commission Zero Emission Vehicle and Infrastructure Statistics. Data last updated [24 Jan 2024]. Retrieved [2 Apr 2024] from Zero Emission Vehicle and Infrastructure Statistics.

View attachment 1034703

View attachment 1034868

Spoiler: Tesla sales figures table

All numbers in thousands.

Year	Tesla % BEV Share	Tesla % LDV Share	Tesla Sold	LDV Sold	BEV Sold
2013	42%	0.5%	9	1,773	21
2014	24%	0.4%	7	1,969	30
2015	30%	0.5%	11	2,217	38
2016	45%	0.8%	17	2,207	38
2017	38%	0.8%	17	2,183	46
2018	72%	3.1%	69	2,252	95
2019	74%	3.3%	70	2,154	95
2020	79%	4.5%	83	1,864	106
2021	75%	6.8%	137	2,016	184
2022	73%	11.6%	213	1,835	292
2023	61%	12.9%	230	1,786	380

Tesla's decline in California market share may be disappointing but it is understandable. Both of the US factories, but especially Fremont, are close to maximum output for the S3XY models for the existing production lines. Also, the S3XY models are already so dominant in California that they may be close to their demand limits under current macroeconomic conditions. The Model Y and Model 3 were the #1 and #2 best-selling vehicles of any kind in California, by a wide margin. The Y sold slightly more than the RAV-4, CR-V, Rogue and Tucson combined. There still may be substantial room for this ceiling to grow over time, as awareness increases and the Supercharger network and service center network continue to expand.

Let's zoom out for context:

• 61% share is still double what it used to be before the Model 3 was introduced
• Competitors emerged from the chip shortage in 2023 and thus were much less supply constrained than during the pandemic. The entire automotive industry had a glut of supply, prices dropped across the industry, and dealership inventories grew.
• 2017 saw a similarly large drop in CA BEV market share when S&X sales peaked and 3 was still in the beginning of Production Hell.
• California is the leading state in the USA for selling compliance EVs at a loss, because California is a huge market with stringent regulatory requirements and it is the most lucrative automotive market in the nation. Tesla is selling into a tilted playing field because customers are subsidizing their losses with earnings from ICE and hybrid sales, but this situation won't last forever.
• 2023 was another weak year of growth for the overall automotive market in California. Overall LDV sales were 10% lower than in the peak years of 2015 through 2018.

View attachment 1034711


View attachment 1034713

Source: California New Car Dealers Association & Experian

California has a overall liberal and leftist population supermajority, but it's a big state with almost 40 million people living it it and it is politically, geographically, culturally, ethnically and economically diverse. The populous coastal counties that comprise the major urban areas are heavily left-leaning, whereas the rural counties are heavily right-leaning, and many other counties are somewhere in between.

In the leftist urban and coastal counties, Tesla did have a decline in their BEV market share from its peak in 2020. In 2023 alone, it declined from 74% to 61%. However, this decline was right in line with the overall trend for California in which Tesla's market share dropped from 73% to 61%. Also, Tesla still showed growth in these left-leaning counties. The only exception was San Mateo county just south of San Francisco and just north of Silicon Valley. San Mateo for some reason had sales collapse by 38% in 2023. I don't have any idea why this happened, but San Mateo is a fairly small market and it was heavily saturated with Teslas until 2022. Despite that lone outlier, overall in the most left-wing counties in California, Tesla actually grew their sales volume by 8.1%, which was almost exactly equal to the Tesla's statewide sales growth of 8.2%.

Even with wide variation in regional demographics, culture and politics, Tesla overall increased sales volume in California pretty evenly throughout the state. Tesla grew the same in woke, socialist metropolises, in liberal suburbs, and in MAGA Trumpland (which does exist in California). Tesla even grew sales by 5% in San Francisco county, which is the bluest county in the state, is the epicenter of the Twitter/X and OpenAI controversy, and has been directly accused by Elon of propagating a radical "woke mind virus" that will destroy civilization as we know it.

View attachment 1034803

Spoiler: Tesla sales for most populous counties

County	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	% Change YoY
Los Angeles	16809	20902	35844	61573	58374	-5%
Orange	9503	11628	18122	26945	31444	17%
Santa Clara	10122	8963	13072	19908	24593	24%
San Diego	5585	7352	11979	16512	19882	20%
Alameda	5714	5418	8418	12444	15039	21%
Riverside	2031	2917	6111	8961	10635	19%
San Bernardino	1694	2241	4604	7495	9271	24%
Contra Costa	2882	3376	5427	7700	8550	11%
Sacramento	1351	1783	3280	5770	7316	27%
San Mateo	3412	3458	5085	11230	6937	-38%
San Francisco	1933	2801	3806	4914	5171	5%
Ventura	1509	1783	3081	4507	4759	6%
San Joaquin	670	846	1819	3062	4610	51%

Unfortunately, Tesla grew sales in California with the help of large price reductions. However, Tesla also reduced prices by the same amount all across the US and similar amounts in all major EV markets around the world. Also, competitors cut prices on their EVs shortly after Tesla did, and inventory has been piling up at their dealerships. It's important to note that Tesla's online ordering and transparent pricing means that we know they were selling vehicles at the same prices throughout California.

All of this evidence casts major doubt on the belief that Elon's political activism has been the primary cause of growth slowdown and price reductions. It is questionable whether it even is a net factor at all. There has been no observed correlation between the political bias of a local market and Tesla's BEV market share. It appears that the broader tough market conditions have affected the whole EV market in the state and worldwide, with BYD the only other player looking decent in 2023. That being said, a lack of correlation doesn't necessarily mean there was no effect. The urban and coastal areas in California have many differences from the rural areas, so maybe Elon's antics were hurting demand in the metro areas but some other factors were tailwinds in these same areas. Still, the simpler and more likely explanation is that the politics did not have a majorly negative effect. Either way, end result is the same and the data shows no cause for alarm.

Thank you so much for that.

Please, somebody, put this in Posts of Significant Merit

Do you wear a cape?