Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cobbler]

FFS, if anyone still mentions Ross Gerber as a meaningful addition to the BOD... I'm like: WTF??
How is it possible that he doesn't understand the difference between lidar and radar after all those years advocating for Tesla?

View attachment 914969

Elon agrees

 

[samn]

Ross Gerber... I think I've probably only ever had to block a couple of posters over the years here on this thread, but if Ross posted here I feel like I'd probably have to block him

 

[NicoV]

Same here looking to sleep in my CT bed and not liking the 3k Tesla tent. Also want to have small AC/heat option. Any tent options that fit the bed?

I’m waiting for whatever is next from Tesla that could be used as a camper. Maybe the CyberVan, if that ever becomes a reality.
I spent the weekend investigating campers and caravans and was astonished everything still heavily used gas for heating and cooking. Not for me, I can wait.

 

[AndrewZ]

Both Ross’ and Elon’s tweets need more context. Elon’s comment is obviously only applicable to the Chinese market where BYD sells almost all of its vehicles, and I’m not sure that is what Ross is referring to. Now we can talk about the issues at Fremont, and I’d love to hear why that ramp is such a problem.

Do these guys know the tweet character restriction was lifted for blue checkmarks?

 

[heltok]

View attachment 1034924

I'm not worried about inventory or delta production vs deliveries. I am more worried about inventory minus "in transit to customer". This quarter due to a few external factors in transit to costumer went up a lot, I assume that next quarter it will go down. If it does for no good reason I might worry.

Imo if you are gonna argue that
production >> deliveries -> lack of demand
I hope that in next quarter you will argue
deliveries >> production -> high demand

If you don't then you are intellectually dishonest.

 

[NicoV]

All I know is that I’m going to buy the best product for me regardless of politics. I’m not going to let my safety or fun suffer because of what some other quacks think in my “peer pressure” group.

About peer pressure: A wise man once said “If somebody has a problem with you, it’s always good to remember who the one is with the problem”

That's great- but Europe already had high inventory on hand (Troy discussed this at the time and it never came down much)--- so that wouldn't have prevented EU deliveries- it just made ballooning the inventory on the ground in Europe take longer.

Europe needs high inventories in order to get reasonably low delivery wait times. Mainly because lack of car carriers and drivers. Inventory piling up at sea ports is a big problem already for a couple of years.
Q1 also had the port of Zeebrugge (the main EU import port) blocked for a couple of days by angry farmers. The angry farmers also blocked highways in other countries. In Q2 this shouldn’t be an issue anymore because the farmers have to work on their farm land.

I have heard from MANY friends over the last year that while they will consider an EV they will not consider a Tesla. I rarely heard that in the past and NEVER at this intensity.

In the EU we have the same problem, not because of Elon antics, but because car fleet managers seem to be mentally married to BMW/Mercedes/Volkswagen/Audi. Many employees can’t choose a Tesla as a company cars because it is simply not on the choice list. My wife works for such a company. She has a collegue who had privately bought a Model 3, and then qualified for a company car. He couldn’t get a Tesla, so he now drives an inferior non-Tesla EV to work, and his wife got to drive the Tesla, much to his chagrin.

The claim also doesn't really fit with the slew of incentives Tesla threw out to entice buyers to buy before EoQ either (FUSC and FSD transfers, free supercharging miles, free FSD, free color choice, threat of price increase at EOQ, etc)

No such incentives in Europe in Q1.

 

[Christine69420]

In Norway car sales are down by 50% YoY. We have the worst month of March in 15 years - 2009 during the financial crisis.

QoQ we are down 22% for the first quarter.

The least reason for depression it is not surprising at Tesla. Model Y continues to thunder in March with a market share of a solid 20.2 per cent.

Source: Nybilsalget kraftig ned: – Ny biltrend kommer til å prege markedet

Edit: Added graphic - and forgot to mention that 89.3% of cars sold in March were BEVs.

 

[replicant]

View attachment 1034980

Elon agrees

BYD BEV sales are up YoY and their customer base is mostly Chinese. Tesla sales were down during that period. Any explanation?

 

[replicant]

Answer: they are flattening the delivery curve.

Flattening means a flat curve pointing up. It's pointing down now.

 

[CitizenKane]

Both Ross’ and Elon’s tweets need more context. Elon’s comment is obviously only applicable to the Chinese market where BYD sells almost all of its vehicles, and I’m not sure that is what Ross is referring to. Now we can talk about the issues at Fremont, and I’d love to hear why that ramp is such a problem.

Do these guys know the tweet character restriction was lifted for blue checkmarks?

Whatever you think of the substance issue, Ross Gerber runs a fairly small investment advisor firm and it is understandable that he uses social media to create a bit of controversy and publicity to stay known and relevant. That the CEO of one of the largest companies of the world responds by using schoolyard insults is however just another example of how poorly and recklessly Musk executes his duties. He and Tesla stand absolutely nothing to gain from an answer like that, how can it be so hard to understand?

 

[cliff harris]

I am a sucker who bought into the FSD story from day one. Now I see others who haven’t paid a dime for FSD supervised get it before me on much cheaper cars. Tesla is just forgetting about, us who supported them when the times were rough. Still no FSD supervised for the legacy Model S and. Should have put the money in TSLA instead of FSD.

It could be worse, you could have bought it TWICE in the UK like me, where our bureaucracy prevents us using it at all...
I have high hopes that 2024 is the year FSD comes to China and Europe. But realistically, its going to be 2025. I'm sure it will be worth waiting for.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Whatever you think of the substance issue, Ross Gerber runs a fairly small investment advisor firm and it is understandable that he uses social media to create a bit of controversy and publicity to stay known and relevant. That the CEO of one of the largest companies of the world responds by using schoolyard insults is however just another example of how poorly and recklessly Musk executes his duties. He and Tesla stand absolutely nothing to gain from an answer like that, how can it be so hard to understand?

Also, Musk did not explain why while BYD sales increased YoY, Tesla decreased. Maybe the difference is just delayed deliveries in transit for exported markets?
Europe, China and US will see all a drop in sales, bot QoQ and YoY.

 

[hobbes]

Nice balanced take:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775277190588092829

 

[Cobbler]

BYD BEV sales are up YoY and their customer base is mostly Chinese. Tesla sales were down during that period. Any explanation?

Channel stuffing dealerships?
BYD sales = wholesales. Tesla sales = car in customer hands

 

[MD70]

OK what if these things is the wrong direction?

• Gigacastings
• Structural battery packs
• 4680 cell production
• Cathode plant
• Lithium refinery
• Plaid Model S/X
• Cybertruck
• Semi
• Refreshed Model 3
• Model Y
• Gen3 unboxed production method
• Megapack
• FSD
• Master Plan 3
• Starting to advertise

Elon's politics may have changed, but I have not noticed any change in his engineering ability.

The biggest mistake made is after the Y not bringing new models to market as quickly as possible.
You can’t take a big chunk of the 80 million vehicles sold every year with two models.
A more “conventional” looking truck would have got similar reservations as the cybertruck and could have been available a year or two before the cybertruck.
In parallel a smaller cheaper vehicle should have been designed and be available now.
(Elon didn’t even want to make it because he went all in on robotaxi and franz had to convince him to use the same platform)

The next mistake was not continuing to increase production of existing battery’s whilst the 4680s are being developed.

I watched battery day and didn’t understand half the technical content but I thought what’s the plan in case this doesn’t work or takes longer to mass produce?
Turns out they didn’t have a plan for this scenario.

As a result we now have at least a year, if not three years of flat or small growth in overall sales.

The existing lineups sales are not helped by many factors some of which are under the companies control.

You mention advertising, many people have been pleading for this for a long time, the leader made this decision late. Targeted advertising should have started before as soon as management knew inventories are increasing.

Another factor is doing silly things to existing models.
Like getting rid of the rear view camera and not having an adequate replacement in place.
Or getting rid of stalks. Before they did this nobody thought I won’t buy a Tesla if it has stalks. After this was done for x number people this is a deal breaker.
All these sorts of decisions result in less sales and right now every sale is needed.

The final area which is a major weakness is repairs and not increasing the number of service centres to take into account the increase in the overall vehicles and the number of vehicles out of warranty that need timely repairs.
Right now these can be expensive and time consuming.
Millions of people outside the US drive vehicles that are more than 10 years old. If Tesla’s have a reputation for expensive, time consuming repairs ( never mind the possibility of buying a car where the battery fails the day after) then second hand values will be much lower resulting in more people being unwilling to buy newer cars, dealers not buying used Tesla’s etc.
This will have a knock on effect on new sales if as well as the normal depreciation another large hit occurs to one outside warranty.

When Hertz made the announcement I remembered the story of a European taxi company getting rid of it’s Tesla’s because Tesla’s service was rubbish and I wondered if it had improved and could handle the numbers hertz would buy.

Turns out it hadn’t.

The result is no more large fleet buys, a fire sale which is great for people who get a bargain but not for Tesla which loses sales overall.

The bigger problem I see that Elon is good at long shots and start ups but when a company is a mixture of multiple start ups and a mature company, the aspects of mature company management isn’t as good.

Like he found top notch engineers for spacex and Franz for Tesla he needs to find people who can run the bread and butter of a company selling millions of vehicles a year and in time having tens of millions of vehicles on the road.

He also has a habit of unrealistic timetables and announcing products before they are ready. I notice the solar roof and the roadster aren’t on the list.

As for everything else mentioned that’s great but the problem is it’s not available right now in sufficient quantities to increase sales and profits.

Just because someone has done great in the past does not mean they will continue to do well in the future or they they are infallible which is why the board needs some truly independent people who can give Elon advice, like spacex has Gwynne Shotwell.

 

[hobbes]

I think you got the numbers confused, they were reported all mixed up which had me confused too. For just BEVs in Q1 BYD sold less than Tesla, after they had surpassed them for the first time in Q4. Confusion was about NEVs vs BEVs an quarterly vs monthly.

IMHO weak sales are due to short term but global scale demand issues that are however not limited to Tesla or even BEVs.

 

[jerry33]

I noticed the same problem when I bought my MY last year. This was my third Tesla purchase and it was by far the worst experience of the three because it was really hard to get someone local on the phone.

When you are making a big purchase you want to talk to someone on the phone at the place you are buying the car.

Somebody please tweet at Elon about this!

The last time I had to actually speak to someone when purchasing a car was in 2015 when I had to purchase a Leaf for Denise (no 3 or Y at that time). It wasn't a pleasant experience.

 

[jerry33]

I think it works best if you book when you need it (or 10 minutes before). Basically its not good to schedule one later.

I did that once to an airport the guy who had picked my ride said he is getting late - cancelled him and got another ride in 5 minutes. After that I just hail when needed and that works fine.

We have tried both ways. Accepted then cancelled. Called regular taxi which has always come quickly. And the price difference has been less than $5 per ride.

 

[cliff harris]

The biggest mistake made is after the Y not bringing new models to market as quickly as possible.
You can’t take a big chunk of the 80 million vehicles sold every year with two models.
A more “conventional” looking truck would have got similar reservations as the cybertruck and could have been available a year or two before the cybertruck.
In parallel a smaller cheaper vehicle should have been designed and be available now.
(Elon didn’t even want to make it because he went all in on robotaxi and franz had to convince him to use the same platform)

The next mistake was not continuing to increase production of existing battery’s whilst the 4680s are being developed.

I watched battery day and didn’t understand half the technical content but I thought what’s the plan in case this doesn’t work or takes longer to mass produce?
Turns out they didn’t have a plan for this scenario.

As a result we now have at least a year, if not three years of flat or small growth in overall sales.

The existing lineups sales are not helped by many factors some of which are under the companies control.

You mention advertising, many people have been pleading for this for a long time, the leader made this decision late. Targeted advertising should have started before as soon as management knew inventories are increasing.

Another factor is doing silly things to existing models.
Like getting rid of the rear view camera and not having an adequate replacement in place.
Or getting rid of stalks. Before they did this nobody thought I won’t buy a Tesla if it has stalks. After this was done for x number people this is a deal breaker.
All these sorts of decisions result in less sales and right now every sale is needed.

The final area which is a major weakness is repairs and not increasing the number of service centres to take into account the increase in the overall vehicles and the number of vehicles out of warranty that need timely repairs.
Right now these can be expensive and time consuming.
Millions of people outside the US drive vehicles that are more than 10 years old. If Tesla’s have a reputation for expensive, time consuming repairs ( never mind the possibility of buying a car where the battery fails the day after) then second hand values will be much lower resulting in more people being unwilling to buy newer cars, dealers not buying used Tesla’s etc.
This will have a knock on effect on new sales if as well as the normal depreciation another large hit occurs to one outside warranty.

When Hertz made the announcement I remembered the story of a European taxi company getting rid of it’s Tesla’s because Tesla’s service was rubbish and I wondered if it had improved and could handle the numbers hertz would buy.

Turns out it hadn’t.

The result is no more large fleet buys, a fire sale which is great for people who get a bargain but not for Tesla which loses sales overall.

The bigger problem I see that Elon is good at long shots and start ups but when a company is a mixture of multiple start ups and a mature company, the aspects of mature company management isn’t as good.

Like he found top notch engineers for spacex and Franz for Tesla he needs to find people who can run the bread and butter of a company selling millions of vehicles a year and in time having tens of millions of vehicles on the road.

He also has a habit of unrealistic timetables and announcing products before they are ready. I notice the solar roof and the roadster aren’t on the list.

As for everything else mentioned that’s great but the problem is it’s not available right now in sufficient quantities to increase sales and profits.

Just because someone has done great in the past does not mean they will continue to do well in the future or they they are infallible which is why the board needs some truly independent people who can give Elon advice, like spacex has Gwynne Shotwell.

Although I massively agree with a lot of this post, there is also a flipside. Elon being elon does indeed cause all of the huge problems you list, but it also brings huge gains. The cybertruck did indeed take too long, but the result is a car that people are describing as iconic. Its likely the ONLY mass market vehicle in the last decade that can be instantly recognised from its silhouette. The free advertising from cybertrucks will be huge, and we are nowhere close to seeing how that plays out.
And then there is FSD. V12 is absolutely amazing. I have every confidence that V13 will be better still, and likely come very soon, by FSD historical standards . If FSD achieves true robotaxi capability, thats staggering. Goodbye Uber, Lyft, Waymo, Cruise, immediately.

I think Elon *can* compromise. He didn't want the Y to be based on the 3 until he was talked into it. He admits the X was overcomplex. He admits they over automated the model 3 line, and he has swallowed his pride and ordered a complete redesign of FSD countless times.

Also its worth noting that although we get annoyed that Elon sometimes is stubborn, he is NOTHING in comparison to legacy auto. Toyota still think Hydrogen cars will be a thing. GM and Ford make grumbling noises about people wanting hybrids. Everyone except tesla still thinks LIDAR is a good idea. VW were so set in their ways they forced out Herbert Deiss for daring to think of changing things. Don't get me started on auto unions.

Elon isn't perfect, but is there a better auto CEO?

 

[MD70]

Although I massively agree with a lot of this post, there is also a flipside. Elon being elon does indeed cause all of the huge problems you list, but it also brings huge gains. The cybertruck did indeed take too long, but the result is a car that people are describing as iconic. Its likely the ONLY mass market vehicle in the last decade that can be instantly recognised from its silhouette. The free advertising from cybertrucks will be huge, and we are nowhere close to seeing how that plays out.
And then there is FSD. V12 is absolutely amazing. I have every confidence that V13 will be better still, and likely come very soon, by FSD historical standards . If FSD achieves true robotaxi capability, thats staggering. Goodbye Uber, Lyft, Waymo, Cruise, immediately.

I think Elon *can* compromise. He didn't want the Y to be based on the 3 until he was talked into it. He admits the X was overcomplex. He admits they over automated the model 3 line, and he has swallowed his pride and ordered a complete redesign of FSD countless times.

Also its worth noting that although we get annoyed that Elon sometimes is stubborn, he is NOTHING in comparison to legacy auto. Toyota still think Hydrogen cars will be a thing. GM and Ford make grumbling noises about people wanting hybrids. Everyone except tesla still thinks LIDAR is a good idea. VW were so set in their ways they forced out Herbert Deiss for daring to think of changing things. Don't get me started on auto unions.

Elon isn't perfect, but is there a better auto CEO?

True, I acknowledge he listens sometimes and because of him EVs are where they are.
However he can take long shots whilst finding people to do the boring stuff competently.