Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Musskiah]

The inverse correlation between mentions and price action of TSLA...

YOY change in vehicle mentions 90 day MA...

 

[JimS]

Unquestionably Tesla did have unusually high supplies of some Model Y cars, low in others. During the quarter, for instance, I bought a new Model Y. My preferred color, inside and out and equipment were unavailable within 60 days. I compromised, many probably did not.
As Tesla matures, inventory imbalances will inevitably rise. They are beginning to appear as a direct function of 'unwinding The Wave' and vastly increased popularity.

I just want to provide a bit of anecdotal evidence in support of your assertion:

If there had not been a 6-month plus waiting time for the Model S I ordered in November of 2021, I would not have cancelled the order when I was notified it was ready. My circumstances had changed. This was a $120k car, blue with white interior and FSD. (Don’t be too mad, I’m sure Tesla had no problem moving that beautiful car.)

Last month if Tesla had had my Model S of choice in inventory, (now blue with crème interior), I would be driving that car now. (I did not want to risk losing the perks of 5k to 10k miles of SuperCharging and transfer of FSD if delivery could not occur by March 31st.)

If Tesla had not had a nice supply of Model Y’s in inventory, my wife would not now be driving, (and loving), her Model Y of choice, and I would not be having the fun and excitement of outfitting it with floor mats, trunk and frunk liners, center console compartments, and a rear spoiler to cover up the small dent I caused when I opened the garage door with the hatchback open, and a couple other things she hasn’t noticed yet!

Now I’d like to ask one small favor of you @unk45 , please post a picture of your new Model Y! So what if you had to “compromise,” I posted a picture of my wife’s new Model Y without even asking her permission!

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - ARK's Cathie Wood on Tesla - Today:

 

[MD70]

Is that you Dionne?

I foresee your hypothetical worst case scenario and raise you my own hypothetical utopian best case scenario that the batteries will last a century.

I have no idea who Dionne is.
I know the majority of battery’s which haven’t been constantly supercharged will last a long time.

However if my budget is buying used vehicles out of warranty would I take a risk buying an EV knowing a minority’s batteries will fail and it will cost me say half the cost of the car to replace it ?

 

[jerry33]

So disappointing. The car tried to curb its tire! It should have honked for starters.

Honking is almost never the answer. It's just there to give you something to do while waiting for the crash.

 

[Drax7]

Indeed. And I think I quite clearly argued for why Ross criticizing a company they invest in may benefit his clients / shareholders, whereas I think Musk calling him an idiot benefits no one. I don't want to presume that you think anything Musk does is genius, so feel free to explain how you see Musk's tweet being beneficial.

Any halfwit communications manager could have help Musk craft a more clever answer, if he felt he had to answer that at all. Something like "Ross Gerber is since long an investor in Tesla and I appreciate his input and engagement. While this is not the place to comment on all issues he brings forward, I'd like to point out that Q1 was a particular demanding quarter for almost all car manufacturers, irrespective of strategies chosen." This would make the same point but instead of people feeling that Musk is a douchebag, he would come out as a humble and likeable guy.

I don't understand why so many of you keep defending what is so obviously stupidities from Musk.

Agree , responding to Gerber should be beneath his contempt.

 

[Usain]

Ok, if this happens, which is a huge long shot for this year and maybe next, would also really move the stock

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775532254871134414

Hmm. So that's what is on Elon's mind?

Ford announcement incoming?

 

[larmor]

Consensus should really be 80% of 475k: 380k...

 

[Krugerrand]

Indeed. And I think I quite clearly argued for why Ross criticizing a company they invest in may benefit his clients / shareholders, whereas I think Musk calling him an idiot benefits no one. I don't want to presume that you think anything Musk does is genius, so feel free to explain how you see Musk's tweet being beneficial.

Any halfwit communications manager could have help Musk craft a more clever answer, if he felt he had to answer that at all. Something like "Ross Gerber is since long an investor in Tesla and I appreciate his input and engagement. While this is not the place to comment on all issues he brings forward, I'd like to point out that Q1 was a particular demanding quarter for almost all car manufacturers, irrespective of strategies chosen." This would make the same point but instead of people feeling that Musk is a douchebag, he would come out as a humble and likeable guy.

I don't understand why so many of you keep defending what is so obviously stupidities from Musk.

I’m defending his right to be stupid (or whatever adjective you want to use) regardless of being the CEO of Tesla, without having his every word or tweet dissected ad naseum, and without him being arbitrarily blamed for virtually EVERYTHING that happens and is deemed ‘bad’ for Tesla, TSLA, The Mission, The world, himself and all the cats and dogs on the planet.

Do you not see the ridiculousness in it all? That you even bother to have a social media account to follow every tweet he types, only then to take the time to categorize it good, bad, indifferent, agreeable - whatever. And then thinking that your made up tweet is in some way a superior response to a person who decided to be a dickhead to Elon, Tesla, shareholders etc over a year ago. Like OMG. ‍

It’s beyond my ability to comprehend what you get out of the double standard. And it is a double standard whether you recognize it or not. You expect Elon to behave in a different way than Ross, and likely a different way than every human on the planet.

 

[2daMoon]

WINNER WINNER Chicken Dinner!!

 

[NicoV]

Meh. People do the same with their ICE vehicles. They get to a certain age or mileage, the vehicle comes out of warranty and they dump it because they’re afraid of the unknown. I’ve bought those kinds of vehicles my whole life for a pittance and run them into the ground over a period of years.

Unless there’s real life factual information that Tesla batteries are suddenly going to croak at a certain point in their life, I’ll keep my Tesla for the duration. If taken care of, an ICE lasts 12-15 yrs on average. I’ve taken care of my Tesla for 6 years so far - you know, tires, one air filter, some wiper fluid and don’t let it sit fully charged nor discharge it to 0 - so I’ll get back to you in 6 more years to let you know how it turned out. I’m eternally hopeful.

I’m ok with paying 13K euro for a refurbished Model S battery, or couple of thousands more for a new one. But I don’t like the idea of getting only 2 years of warranty on that. In the worst (unlikely) case, it’s another 13K every 2 years. Tesla should give their customers peace of mind for such a big expense.
As I said, my solution this (maybe imagined) problem is to buy a new car with the latest tech and let somebody else worry about it.
So far I have ‘t seen any data on failure rates of Tesla battery packs as they age beyond the warranty lifetime. If I had that data maybe I would be more relaxed about it. Tesla has that data.

 

[MP3Mike]

I’m ok with paying 13K euro for a refurbished Model S battery, or couple of thousands more for a new one. But I don’t like the idea of getting only 2 years of warranty on that

Do they only come with a 2-year warranty in Europe? In North America they come with a 4-year/50k mile warranty. (Unless you are talking about the battery for the original Roadster, which is only for 2 years.)

 

[2daMoon]

Do they only come with a 2-year warranty in Europe? In North America they come with a 4-year/50k mile warranty. (Unless you are talking about the battery for the original Roadster, which is only for 2 years.)

View attachment 1035131
View attachment 1035132

I read it as @NicoV talking about the warranty on the replacement refurbished battery being purchased after the Tesla warranty has elapsed.

Edit: @MP3Mike Corrected my misunderstanding below. Thanks!

 

[Discoducky]

Hmm. So that's what is on Elon's mind?

Ford announcement incoming?

to be clear, just the announcement in the next year or so IMO would be a long shot. But **IF** that happens, I'd expect Ford to be first. They have the most to lose due to the whole truck being the cornerstone of their profit (well at least the financing of the truck).

 

[MP3Mike]

I read it as @NicoV talking about the warranty on the replacement refurbished battery being purchased after the Tesla warranty has elapsed.

Which is exactly what I posted the warranty for. 4-years/50k miles. (Original packs come with an 8-year warranty.)

 

[cab]

I see we are back on the "Elon bad" campaign again (not that we ever really left). Without debating it endlessly, I was impressed with the simple reaction of Lars and Franz toward the end of the Top Gear video (from the launch - see below...should be queued to around 36:29) where the interviewer asked if this (the Cybertruck) would have been possible with any other boss (eg besides Elon). The "Hell No","No","No" response spoke volumes to me and (probably) anyone who has spent more than 5 minutes being exposed to the typical leaders in corporate America. One could say they were towing the company line, but it was pretty obvious they were serious and Lars went on to talk about how it was nice to actually talk with a CEO who understood engineering and physics so he didn't have to dumb it down. I know this SEEMS like no big deal, but it felt like such a one-in-a-million anomaly when you've lived in the corporate world for so long - it was truly a bullish moment for me.

 

[2daMoon]

to be clear, just the announcement in the next year or so IMO would be a long shot. But **IF** that happens, I'd expect Ford to be first. They have the most to lose due to the whole truck being the cornerstone of their profit (well at least the financing of the truck).

Agreed, though it could be advantageous for both companies to share an early announcement that they are collaborating on how to integrate FSD into new Ford models in the future.

That would be a bombshell, vaulting positive attention on both companies while keeping timeline or specific model info to themselves.

 

[AZRI11]

An important topic which isn’t discussed enough.
As the number of vehicles outside warranty increases I foresee horror stories about battery’s failing and the cost of replacement increasing.
This will result in even more depreciation for out of warranty vehicles which in turn will impact new sales.

After 300,000 mi, the vehicles are probably worth less than the least expensive used battery packs.

 

[DarkandStormy]

CNBC - ARK's Cathie Wood on Tesla - Today:

Her favorite time horizon is five years. She's returned her investors nothing in he last five years. In fact, her flagship fund has lagged SPY by 80+% and QQQ by 140+% in the last five years.

https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target

You can see how poor their models are.

Not turning this into another Cathie/ARK debate, it's just wild to me anyone takes this firm seriously anymore.

 

[Krugerrand]

Can only imagine Ross thinks Tesla is executing as good as can be expected in China and that there’s probably not much else to do in that realm, good luck dealing with the CCP to affect change in their economy or gross overbuilding of EV capacity.

Good luck getting a factory up and running in China without a Chinese business partner.

It amazes me how stuck people get. That they believe everything in the world is static and doesn’t, can’t, won’t ever change.