Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zero CO2]

I'm not worried about inventory or delta production vs deliveries. I am more worried about inventory minus "in transit to customer". This quarter due to a few external factors in transit to costumer went up a lot, I assume that next quarter it will go down. If it does for no good reason I might worry.

Imo if you are gonna argue that
production >> deliveries -> lack of demand
I hope that in next quarter you will argue
deliveries >> production -> high demand

If you don't then you are intellectually dishonest.

many are just dishonest ... i would not give them credit for the intellectual part

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Is she on the Disney board?

I go to Disney World quite often. If you go inside the Test Track attraction (sponsored by Chevrolet), you see a showroom for Chevy vehicles. They used to always have a Bolt on display. I was there a few weeks ago and there was not one single EV at all. Take from that what you will.

Disney - Leadership, History, Corporate Social Responsibility

The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading diversified international family entertainment and media enterprise.

thewaltdisneycompany.com

Among others.

 

[2daMoon]

The car buying market seems to disagree with Elon's childish behavior, as Tesla has record inventory levels even with the most promotions ever offered in a quarter

Again, which company is it that makes the best selling car in the world?

Just stick to measuring your life by the quarter and let the rest of us continue to enjoy playing the long game.

 

[cliff harris]

Random thought: I really don’t think FSD will enable the current S3XY fleet to become robotaxis. FSD is showing great progress but SEXY have no electronic steering redundancy. The redundancy is just the driver taking over. It could be that the Cybertruck is the first viable robotaxi because of its multiple steering actuators. So it’s not as simple as “flipping a switch” imo.

How much of an issue is this? How often do steering systems actually mechanically fail? I would guess its no higher than the number of people who have a heart attack or seizure while driving.
Teslas have enough sensors to know that the car is not doing what it told the steering to do, and presumably can then brake immediately. So in a complete steering fail, even at high speed, you are likely way better off than having a human drive.
And of course if steering can fail, what exactly would a human be able to do about it?

 

[Zero CO2]

I am a sucker who bought into the FSD story from day one. Now I see others who haven’t paid a dime for FSD supervised get it before me on much cheaper cars. Tesla is just forgetting about, us who supported them when the times were rough. Still no FSD supervised for the legacy Model S and. Should have put the money in TSLA instead of FSD.

saw this on X ... still not happy about it but at least a response has been given

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774511721954041942

as an investor i get it ... as an early adopter customer ... Tesla does not reward you ... you might even say they punish you

 

[2daMoon]

No, he's a successful leader because he's willing to take risks and act on his knowledge rather than crowdsourcing and compromising on decisions like most corporate leaders are required to do. That's not the same thing as what you said, nor is it the opposite. One can be circumspect on how you speak, and still take the risks that get you progress and success.

It is an inherent aspect of the whole that is Elon. Change something about that behavior and risk affecting other things as well.

I'd rather none of the ingredients in this recipe be altered as long as he keeps doing what he does best.

Wouldn't it make more sense to ask those offended to practice a little forgiveness?

 

[Krugerrand]

I was saying there is only upside for Ford.

But I don't see how increased software revenue could be seen as a negative for Tesla. Especially when Tesla has no competition and they can charge whatever the market will bear.

Software is a much easier, higher margin business than autos. Selling FSD to OEMs will be even more profitable than selling cars with FSD.

It's just like how selling Windows was a better business than selling PCs.

I don’t disagree with you. I’m just saying it’s not actually up to us what the SP does or would do given this information.

I mean, if you toddle over to the options thread you’ll see a bunch of confuzzled individuals. People who have spent months, even years, studying Tesla, TSLA, TA, options, et al and simply can not understand how TSLA didn’t crater to fill ‘that’ gap yesterday. I haven’t caught up today to see if they’ve figured out why TSLA is so far green today or if they still are confuzzled.

SP not in our control. Not in Tesla’s control.

 

[Krugerrand]

Is she on the Disney board?

I go to Disney World quite often. If you go inside the Test Track attraction (sponsored by Chevrolet), you see a showroom for Chevy vehicles. They used to always have a Bolt on display. I was there a few weeks ago and there was not one single EV at all. Take from that what you will.

Aha! Another child masquerading as an adult.

 

[Krugerrand]

No, he's a successful leader because he's willing to take risks and act on his knowledge rather than crowdsourcing and compromising on decisions like most corporate leaders are required to do. That's not the same thing as what you said, nor is it the opposite. One can be circumspect on how you speak, and still take the risks that get you progress and success.

Perhaps. It’s not Elon, though, and it’s never been, never will be. If you would prefer an investment in that which you admire, you should do it.

 

[capster]

I’m waiting for whatever is next from Tesla that could be used as a camper. Maybe the CyberVan, if that ever becomes a reality.
I spent the weekend investigating campers and caravans and was astonished everything still heavily used gas for heating and cooking. Not for me, I can wait.

From my experience with my Cybertruck, once moms experience dad’s Cybertruck and see the fashion trend, they’re going to want a grocery getter based on the CT. They’ll cite safety reasons etc, but it’ll be the auto equivalent of a Birkin bag (Birkin bag - Wikipedia). Yes, I’m speaking in stereotypes, but, as they say, stereotypes sell.

I’d advise Tesla to consider making a family truckster based on the CT, a la the environmentally abominable MB G-class and the old Jeep Grand Wagoneer, before the van. They’d get higher margins for longer.

If they do so, they might want to also differentiate the next gen/robotaxi vehicles from the CT family should they go with the stainless exoskeleton route in order to maintain the exclusivity of the CT family.

 

[cliff harris]

I know the board is in FSD mode, but just in case some people madly do not follow Joe... texas keeps pumping out those cybertrucks. I think Q2 cybertruck production is going to be really good... but the thing that boggles my mind is that nobody here has mentioned getting asked about a non foundation series? Is it really true that all of these are foundation series CTs at crazy high prices? (link:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775543826116943921

)

 

[Knightshade]

Redundancy is in the compute/software. It is fully compliant.

Last I knew the FSD computer isn't running redundantly either as they've had to (for a couple years now) needed to use cross-node compute since they'd run out of compute on a single node quite some time ago.

Some folks believe they'll eventually be able to trim back the NNs to fit back into a single node again (though usually it reads pretty strongly of hopium when they say it)-but currently there's no redundancy in compute on FSD at all.... there's also a few things not-perfectly-identical in the HW ability/connections on HW3 so even then you don't have true redundancy (see Greens tweet below)... HW4 might be better in this regard but is a minority of the fleet today

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572003268909203458

 

[jschwefel]

You need more context to determine if Ross is an idiot!? Well, ok then.

Since BYD is the only other company even in the same stratosphere as Tesla concerning EVs, and the one publicly being flogged benchmarked against Tesla, then it’s exactly the correct comparison by Elon. There’s some context for you.

I agree, Ross is an idiot. I stopped listening to him years ago.

And why are we talking about BYD? Yes, unfortunately their sales are down too, but that’s not the main problem. The main problem is the fact that hundreds of thousands of ICE SUVs were sold last quarter at prices comparable to the Model Y. Some will say charging and service locations are an issue, and that may be true for some folks, but I’m pretty sure the majority of those ICE buyers would be blown away by the Model Y. If they only knew.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

How much of an issue is this? How often do steering systems actually mechanically fail? I would guess its no higher than the number of people who have a heart attack or seizure while driving.
Teslas have enough sensors to know that the car is not doing what it told the steering to do, and presumably can then brake immediately. So in a complete steering fail, even at high speed, you are likely way better off than having a human drive.
And of course if steering can fail, what exactly would a human be able to do about it?

Losing steering at highway speeds is a very big deal. Enough so that the Cybertruck has dual redundant steering actuators and will tell you to pull over immediately if one fails. Maybe applying differential braking could be a partial solution?

Anyway this was not meant to be a bearish post. I’m more bullish on robotaxi than ever after my fsd 12.3.3 drive today, I just don’t think I’ll be able to add my S or Y to the robotaxi fleet.

 

[replicant]

If they only knew.

Worst: millions of ICE/PHEV buyers know, and have a problem going with Tesla – the brand.

 

[Krugerrand]

I know the board is in FSD mode, but just in case some people madly do not follow Joe... texas keeps pumping out those cybertrucks. I think Q2 cybertruck production is going to be really good... but the thing that boggles my mind is that nobody here has mentioned getting asked about a non foundation series? Is it really true that all of these are foundation series CTs at crazy high prices? (link:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775543826116943921

)

View attachment 1035162

It is true. They are still only taking foundation orders and it appears they still have a two to three month backlog despite the increased production ramp. I ordered, I think it was late January (been so long I can’t even remember) and still empty handed.

 

[NicoV]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see some kind of tentative agreement sooner. Both Ford and Tesla stock would get a nice big lift.

What would be the downside for Ford? I only see upside.

Maybe Tesla should make a deal with Hertz to make FSD available to Hertz customers first. Hertz would get less repair costs, and Tesla would get fresh FSD junkies.
I’m only half joking.

 

[Musskiah]

It's not a double standard. Elon, as CEO of a former 'Magnificent 7' company should and is held to a much higher standard than a cali bro running a tiny RIA firm. But Elon's emotional intelligence and maturity is so low that he fails to recognize why he shouldn't act like a troll and even recognize those beneath him and stop punching down.

If Elon punches at all, he is probably punching down, being that he is pretty much more accomplished than most all people on Earth. Sometimes verbal sparring is necessary.

I admire Elon for never losing the kid in him. So many people, especially in the "real" world are too busy acting like adults. Elon knows when to be a troll and when to tell Bob Iger "eff you!" AND simultaneously, he is perhaps the most accomplished person on Earth. He is both mature and immature, when he ought to be. Maybe he doesn't adhere to the standards of others or pass everyone's test. You can't please everyone, and you shouldn't try to.

As for Ross Gerber, he deserves to be called an idiot publicly. Tesla Boomer Mama called Ross "butthurt" on X, I do not consider her immature or lacking emotional intelligence. If anything, she deserves a high five.

 

[woodisgood]

Maybe Tesla should make a deal with Hertz to make FSD available to Hertz customers first. Hertz would get less repair costs, and Tesla would get fresh FSD junkies.
I’m only half joking.

The Hertz thing couldn’t have played out better for the anti-Tesla/anti-EV crowd.

It remains unclear who fumbled the ball on what should have been a very successful partnership.

 

[Musskiah]

Bahahhahahhaahhahahahaha. How do these fools do this for a living?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/04/03/tesla-bear-says-elon-musks-ev-maker-will-go-bust-stock-worth-14.html