Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Elon confirmed it’s not true.

FSD 13.3.3 is fantastic, I’ve been an FSD user for close to 3 years now and it’s really fun to watch the improvement. This new version is for real and I can totally see a future where robotaxis exist, and it’s not that far away. That said, there is no reason Tesla can’t do both so this story sounded like BS out of the gate.

Need a coffee and maybe a scotch … sheesh, what a way to wake up.

Anyone who thinks the nextgen won't easily convert to RT on the production line doesn't understand how the Tesla team think.

 

[replicant]

Elon confirmed it’s not true.

FSD 13.3.3 is fantastic, I’ve been an FSD user for close to 3 years now and it’s really fun to watch the improvement. This new version is for real and I can totally see a future where robotaxis exist, and it’s not that far away. That said, there is no reason Tesla can’t do both so this story sounded like BS out of the gate.

Need a coffee and maybe a scotch … sheesh, what a way to wake up.

What's not true?

He said Reuters lied. About which part of the long article is a lie? I (and you) don't know.

Say, Elon decided to dedicated 99% of the resources for the robotaxi so a tiny fraction of the production would be for the $25K version. How much the story would be incorrect? A tiny bit. Still, I'm 100% sure Elon would tell the story is a lie (because Reuters isn't 100% correct and they're clearly biased against him and Tesla).

 

[Musskiah]

I was at the last shareholder meeting. I certainly paid attention. I still stand by my words. I’ll buy back in when Elon leaves, or when Elon gets a therapist [not Jordan Peeterson or some nut ], or when it’s actually undervalued. I expect door number 3.

1. We’re still in a bubble
2. TSLA is a retail favorite. Once the economy tanks, and it will, it will be capitulation city over here.
3. Profit?

I'm genuinely curious what other equities you like. Door #3: What measure do you watch in order to consider TSLA undervalued?

 

[Singuy]

Sawyer wrote "Maybe Elon and the team have been so impressed with how good FSD 12 has performed and were maybe thinking they should be shifting even more resources to the Robotaxi/FSD effort.

This doesn't mean the $25k car is canceled. Again, they share the same platform."


I guess I don't understand what "resources" he means here...

If it's the same platform and RT just deletes driver controls-- what "shifting resources" do you need there? Like- a dude to design a blank dash piece?

On the compute side there's no resources just working on a manual-driven car that'd be useful to 'shift' there.

And it's not shifting money- since Tesla has mountains of extra cash sitting around.

And it's not like Tesla has been shy putting resources into FSD development (see the massive Nvidia spend plus the Dojo project).

Translation, if FSD is solved, Tesla is cancelling the 25k steering wheel car. He will consider a manual controlled car more dangerous and less profit margin. If fsd is not solved, then continue as planned. Musk sees FSD being more solved than not by 2025.

 

[jerry33]

Here's a line from the Reuters article claiming that plans have been scrapped for a Model 2.

"Two sources said they learned of Tesla's decision to scrap the Model 2 in a meeting attended by scores of employees, with one of them saying the gathering happened in late February."

Late February? Scores of employees? It would be amazing that such a decision would not have been leaked before today. In any event, plans could have changed since then.

"Scores of employees". It's well known that Elon hates meetings and believes the more people in a meeting the less chance of success. The only meetings I've seen with scores of employees are similar to the recent SpaceX all hands.

 

[mrmage]

By the time you achieve that level of comfort, I suspect it will be too late to "reopen" that position - at least at a SP level you consider to be reasonable at that time. Then again, maybe you have insight that others don't. Then again, maybe you only think you do. As with all things investing - time will tell.

My other investments are likely to grow too, and empirically I made the right decision. My former TSLA investment has grown enough in other assets that I can almost double the TSLA shares if I converted back. If TSLA has the potential to leap past $700 a share in 2024, I'm happy to accept my bird in the hand over two in the bush.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Translation, if FSD is solved, Tesla is cancelling the 25k steering wheel car. He will consider a manual controlled car more dangerous and less profit margin. If fsd is not solved, then continue as planned. Musk sees FSD being more solved than not by 2025.

I don't think that's the translation at all.

 

[AZRI11]

There likely won't be a wheel or controller on the robotaxi, but almost 0% chance there's not a wheel and pedals on the consumer car.

I believe FSD will be added to every Tesla no additional cost, someone has to initiate every drive from the drivers seat and the car won't drive on public streets without a "driver" . Robotaxi will cost extra, less than 10k? because Tesla has to build costly infrastructure to inductive charge the robotaxi fleet, especially in urban areas. Tesla keeps a certain percentage of the fare, perhaps those who paid 10K or more for FSD will be able to keep a higher percentage. Everyone up till now, who has purchased FSD gets a free transfer, and a robotaxi license. This is like Airbnb. The owner of the robotaxi has to maintain it, or pay someone else to do the dirty work.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I believe FSD will be added to every Tesla no additional cost. Robotaxi will cost extra, less than 10k? because Tesla has to build costly infrastructure to inductive charge the robotaxi fleet, especially in urban areas. Tesla keeps a certain percentage of the fare, perhaps those who paid 10K or more for FSD will be able to keep a higher percentage. Everyone up till now, who has purchased FSD gets a free transfer, and a robotaxi license. This is like Airbnb. The owner of the robotaxi has to maintain it, or pay someone else to do the dirty work.

That's a big leap, but we are years away from the masses allowing and being comfortable enough to buy a car with physical controls. It's still early adopters at this point.

 

[NicoV]

I remember quite a while ago Tesla started to use the two computing units in AP HW 3


Oh man that is disappointing, was so looking forward to getting something cool for the money I paid 5 years ago

What Rohan says is basically the changes in UNECE regulations are not enough to allow FSD outside US because they still don’t allow actions taken by the system without every lane change etc being approved by the driver

The silver lining is that FSD will remain relatively cheap in the EU. Some day it will be allowed in EU. I bought a new Model S with FSD a couple of months a go anticipating that some day it will be allowed.

 

[advocate8]

What's not true?

He said Reuters lied. About which part of the long article is a lie? I (and you) don't know.

Say, Elon decided to dedicated 99% of the resources for the robotaxi so a tiny fraction of the production would be for the $25K version. How much the story would be incorrect? A tiny bit. Still, I'm 100% sure Elon would tell the story is a lie (because Reuters isn't 100% correct and they're clearly biased against him and Tesla).

There is something to this view. Something is off about both Elon’s response and probably the article too. Which one? How much, and about what? There’s no need for the rush to judgment on the part of either Elon fanboys or Elon skeptics, the facts will eventually sort themselves. Regardless I’m not seeing anything yet about this that would lead me to sell a single share.
If it were true the “M2” had been scrapped that would be a problem for TSLA for sure. No mass new products in the pipeline that aren’t speculative, and stuck with just mid- and upper-priced vehicles with basic designs that have been around awhile, plus a relatively niche pickup is not a good look. And to the market it would signal loopy management in a way we haven’t quite seen. But we’d def need more detail given Elon’s response. He surely has more than a small reason for what he wrote.

 

[hitchhiker]

There likely won't be a wheel or controller on the robotaxi, but almost 0% chance there's not a wheel and pedals on the consumer car.

Good thing they've already produced steer-by-wire so they can do both easily on the same frame.

 

[FreqFlyer]

The fastest way to transition the world to sustainable transport (mission) is to maximize the utility of each vehicle produced. Individual vehicles are only utilized a small fraction of the time, and sit idle the vast majority of the time, hence robotaxis will move us away from fossil fuels more rapidly than cheap Teslas. There is also much more value in a robotaxi than a cheap Tesla because of it's much greater utility. Therefore, this decision to go all robotaxi, if true, would maximize Tesla's FCF and earnings in addition to weaning us off our oil addiction... at Tesla speed.

Do you believe this? If I were to go to my wife's High School classes and tell them what you wrote since I am sure that the generation you are talking too. Will they embrace this or laugh me out of the room?

 

[Blue horseshoe]

There is something to this view. Something is off about both Elon’s response and probably the article too. Which one? How much, and about what? There’s no need for the rush to judgment on the part of either Elon fanboys or Elon skeptics, the facts will eventually sort themselves. Regardless I’m not seeing anything yet about this that would lead me to sell a single share.
If it were true the “M2” had been scrapped that would be a problem for TSLA for sure. No mass new products in the pipeline that aren’t speculative, and stuck with just mid- and upper-priced vehicles with basic designs that have been around awhile, plus a relatively niche pickup is not a good look. And to the market it would signal loopy management in a way we haven’t quite seen. But we’d def need more detail given Elon’s response. He surely has more than a small reason for what he wrote.

Rush to judgement? Reuters stated as fact that the 25k is cancelled. That is not true. This caused a $50B swing in market cap. You can take your time getting there, but Reuters published false information again.

 

[Knightshade]

Really? Come on. It’s MATERIAL to the company and therefore against the law.

What law, specifically, do you think it would violate?

Because to my knowledge there isn't one preventing a public company from disclosing material info as long as it's disclosed publicly- even if it's between end of quarter and earnings announcement.

There might be company rules about what you can say when- many companies have them (though they vary in details)- but I'm not aware of any law requiring them other than prior to IPO- and the company policies are usually in place so an employee doesn't accidentally disclose non public material info to a select group. Disclosing it to everyone means it's public- which is legal.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Did Reuters publish another article making $TSLA drop again or did Elon post something confirming Model 2 is kaput? Or is max pain at $165?
I am still left in awe about how people still question whether manipulation of $TSLA happens on purpose.

 

[woodisgood]

The primary risk with robotaxi is regulatory. You can commit all the engineering resources you want to making it come to fruition, but the regulatory part is mostly out of Tesla’s hands.

Yes, there are frameworks in some locations to deal with robotaxis. Yes, they are absent in many, many places. But one can also not expect the current regulatory landscape to remain when Tesla’s robotaxi product is revealed to be as disruptive as we believe it will be. FSD and robotaxi (as envisioned) are a cataclysmic disruption that will/must be slowed (my cynical opinion - but you can see what’s happening with electrification and that’s inherently a gentler/slower disruption). That’s why you’ve got to keep the 25k car until it seems like robotaxi can take off from all angles, even if it seems solved from the technical perspective (Elon’s main focus).

It’s going to be fought tooth and nail.

 

[FreqFlyer]

If the RT is ready for prime time, it makes sense to debut them first in Boring projects like Las Vegas. However, that project needs more than a vehicle that transports four people. Have coworkers who go to CES, and have taken the tunnel in the Model 3s and have stated it needs at the minimum a van-type vehicle to handle the crowds.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Did Reuters publish another article making $TSLA drop again or did Elon post something confirming Model 2 is kaput? Or is max pain at $165?
I am still left in awe about how people still question whether manipulation of $TSLA happens on purpose.

The story is on the front page of my Yahoo home page.

 

[Gigapress]

Anyone who thinks the nextgen won't easily convert to RT on the production line doesn't understand how the Tesla team think.

A vehicle specially optimized for robotaxi use case will have significantly different design objectives, even for stuff that’s not obvious like aero, suspension, and thermal management. Trying to serve both use cases with one design yields a vehicle configuration that’s not optimal for either, much like how attempts by how other automakers to incorporate multiple powertrain designs into the same vehicle and production lines has been a failure.

I’m sure Tesla has designed the next-gen vehicle to be able to be adapted decently to be used as a taxi, but it will be inferior to the dedicated robotaxi design.