Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SO16]

And note, Elon waited until AFTER market close to announce because you want to believe the SEC would have been crawling up his buttocks if he’d done it before close, and all the usual suspects would be screaming ‘stock pump’ - not that they haven’t been since the P&D report.

AH trading should not be allowed IMO. Many people are unable to take part in it.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

AH trading should not be allowed IMO.

Should ban Short Selling while they're at it as well? Or should that be still allowed?

 

[Paul_SF]

AH trading should not be allowed IMO. Many people are unable to take part in it.

But, that’s the whole point of it . That’s how they want it, keep the retail out….

 

[Joe F]

PSA: 8/8 without a year, and people freak out? Okay.
Who is it that makes the scale model Tesla cars, Mattel?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Personally,

I think everyone is overreacting to the reveal date of 8/8 like they over-reacted to the reuters article today. Why you ask? There is no YEAR LISTED!! It could be 2024, 2025, 2026, no one knows!!

Have a good weekend everyone, back to the circus starting at 6:30am PST Monday morning!

EDIT: @Joe F beat me by 1 minute, great minds think alike

 

[SOULPEDL]

Today was one big MMD (Mental Masturbation Day). I want a do-over.

 

[Xepa777]

I'd argue NONE of us on this forum have any clue how far off we are but the fact that there is an announcement 6 months away leads me to believe that the engineers at Tesla realize how close they are. I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt and yes I realize Elon's track record with timelines is less than great.

I'll admit, I'm probably starved for some good news and I'm probably a bit more positive that some. I'm hungry

Cheers to the longs.

The only positive news that would make me believe is some announcement with a city on 8/8 to mass deploy as a test site. Until then this is an emotional amateur hour reaction cuz of Reuters exposing the state of tesla.

Love the salty downvotes from people who know I’m right and have driven out most rational posters from this site just leaving delusional takes that lose people money.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Today was one big MMD (Mental Masturbation Day). I want a do-over.

You can do that every day if you like, even without the markets being open

 

[AndrewZ]

Technically this will be robotaxi unveil #6, after the S unveil and then the X unveil and then the 3 unveil and then the Y unveil and then the CT unveil

right

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Franz will be here at this event at the Petersen Museum. Whomever is local, we should go and ask him if 8/8 is true or not

 

[heltok]

based on your posts, you seem to be very knowledgeable in this area.

So what is the difference b/w robotaxi and 25K car in terms of FSD stack?
if lidar etc for robotaxi, then that would mean FSD will not be full Self driving right? Else both will be the same?

Robotaxi and 25k car will use the same software stack for FSD. Rototaxi is more about making the car comfortable as a passenger, making it easy to clean, making it very durable etc. Basically a car optimized for being in use a lot by passengers and not a fun driver. It might include things such as a automatic sliding doors to make entry/exit easier and camera monitoring for improper use etc which require slightly different software, but nothing major for the control of driving.

25k car will sell in high volume at a cheap price. Robotaxi can cost a bit more, but make up for it because it will be used a lot.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

There sure was a lot of excitement during the market and AH currently for $TSLA to be up a whopping $1.3x for the day. Feel bad for those who panic sold, on 2nd thought, NO I DO NOT!

 

[heltok]

8/8 is definitely a deliberate choice for the Chinese market. Great choice of numbers.

China will be the biggest market for them robots and probably a Chinese manufacturer will be the 1st to pay for FSD licensing.

Edit:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776360940273123625

Here are some common beliefs associated with the Year of the Dragon:

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6. Adventure and Innovation: Dragons are associated with adventure and innovation. Those born in the Year of the Dragon may be more inclined to take risks and explore new opportunities.

Fwiw Elon Musk is a Metal Pig:

Spoiler: Metal pig

Pig:

• Good Fortune: Pigs are considered to bring good luck and prosperity. Those born in the Year of the Pig are believed to have fortunate lives with abundant opportunities for success.
• Kindness and Generosity: Pigs are often associated with kindness, generosity, and compassion. People born in the Year of the Pig are believed to possess these qualities, making them caring and supportive individuals.
• Hard Work: Despite their reputation for being laid-back, pigs are known for their diligence and hard work. Those born in the Year of the Pig are believed to be diligent and persistent in pursuing their goals.
• Simplicity: Pigs are associated with simplicity and honesty. People born in this year are believed to value simplicity and lead uncomplicated lives.
• Friendliness: Pigs are social animals known for their friendliness and sociability. Those born in the Year of the Pig are believed to be outgoing, sociable, and easy to get along with.
• Enjoyment of Life: Pigs are known for their love of indulgence and enjoyment of life's pleasures. People born in this year are believed to have a zest for life and to enjoy the finer things life has to offer.

Metal Pig combines the characteristics of the Pig zodiac sign with the attributes associated with the Metal element. Here are some properties of a Metal Pig:

1. Determination: Metal is associated with strength and determination. A Metal Pig is likely to be steadfast in pursuing their goals and overcoming obstacles with resilience.
2. Precision: Metal is also linked to precision and detail-oriented thinking. A Metal Pig may possess a keen attention to detail and a methodical approach to tasks.
3. Intelligence: Pigs are generally considered intelligent and resourceful animals. Combined with the Metal element, a Metal Pig may exhibit high levels of intellect and problem-solving skills.
4. Financial Acumen: Pigs are associated with wealth and prosperity, while Metal is linked to financial matters. As a result, a Metal Pig may have a natural aptitude for financial management and investment strategies.
5. Diplomacy: Pigs are known for their amiable and sociable nature, while Metal is associated with diplomacy. A Metal Pig may possess excellent communication skills and be adept at navigating social interactions with grace and tact.
6. Persistence: Metal is associated with persistence and resilience. A Metal Pig is likely to exhibit determination and perseverance in the face of challenges, refusing to give up easily.
7. Analytical Thinking: Metal is linked to analytical thinking and logical reasoning. A Metal Pig may approach problems with a rational and analytical mindset, seeking practical solutions based on sound judgment.

 

[SO16]

Should ban Short Selling while they're at it as well? Or should that be still allowed?

I wish it was people either own the stock or they don’t. No short selling. No options. No AH trading. No high frequency trading (can buy or sell a specific share once per day.). Cut all the excessive BS from the market. Of course WAY too much money being made from options, etc.

 

[SOULPEDL]

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Franz will be here at this event at the Petersen Museum. Whomever is local, we should go and ask him if 8/8 is true or not

In LA... to sign a sledgehammer? I'm wearing his shirt right now!
(No I did not buy one for like $4k, but wanted to for sure. I'm a Maker, and it's a Trophy piece to me.)

 

[EQC_]

Several studies show that Millennials prefer car access over ownership. The trend is clear that ridesharing services are increasing in popularity. If I could hail a ride and watch a movie or work or eat or sleep, especially if I lived in a urban center where parking is a pain in the butt and expensive, I would try it out for several weeks to see if I like it. I would do it for the convenience, not so much the savings.

The transition won't be immediate or complete. I am sure there will still be car ownership. It's just that each robotaxi can replace the utility of several personal vehicles and so the global vehicle fleet won't be nearly as numerous. Therefore the phase out of ICE vehicles will be more rapid.

So many different environments around the US and the rest of the world.

As you noted, I can see robotaxis being a success and working very well for places like urban centers. I can easily imagine robotaxis taking over for the work of taxis/ubers/lyfts, so they make sense in areas where those services already have a MAJOR presence and profitability.

Also, it feels like you have to either limit users or have a massive number of cars in that city when the service first turns on. If a customer turns on the app, and no robotaxis are available, they'll just shift to another app. So, it feels like if/when Tesla starts producing robotaxis, they might have to ship them in big numbers to one city to get started there. Then another wave to another city later.

In very walkable cities, or areas with great mass transit systems, robotaxis would be less busy and less useful and less profitable.

In many typical suburbs, the entire layout of homes/work-places/shopping places/schools/etc. really makes life VERY inconvenient if you don't own and use your own car. Without a major change in society, a taxi network (robo- or otherwise) will only work for a small percentage of trips in these areas. All the moving-about of people is so concentrated into the morning and evening commutes that a robotaxi couldn't really serve two different people's commutes. And, the taxi wouldn't have much to do in the mid-day or night-time hours as most people are either at-work or sleeping. I also don't imagine many of these folks are going to want to rely on a taxi service of any sort to get their kids to/from activities, or to haul a week's worth of groceries either. A personally-owned robot chauffer makes good sense...but I just don't see economic viability in a full robotaxi (or any other kind of taxi) service in places like this.

And, in more rural areas where everything is more spread out and remote, I don't see robotaxis having much use at all.

So, overall, it feels like the focus on robotaxis that can be massively profitable as a service will limit the market to certain big city areas. Cars sold as personally-owned vehicles will still be effectively required in the suburbs and rural areas, whether or not they can drive themselves. Even though, over its life, a robotaxi in an optimal area might be more profitable, I certainly hope that Tesla doesn't leave out huge swaths of the population for whom a taxi service just doesn't make sense. I want them to push for massive scale as proposed in Master Plan Part 3!

 

[unk45]

Thats not the pool that uses Uber. Uber is first and foremost used by people seeking to avoid drunk driving while bar hopping. Second it is used by people traveling instead of renting cars (PITA) or taxis (often non existent). Last it is used by people in very congested cities as an alternative to Taxis because many taxis are gross or expensive and you can't count on them.

That's is the pool that adopted TAAS. RT would have to be fundamentally different to attract a new group of people. It's not a big pool. It relies on profits from very dense urban areas. 10 cities, 50% of profit.

FWIW, Uber is global, and semi-automatically shifts user data to local for frequent travelers. I use US, Brazil, UK, France and Greece with some frequency. Each of those locations have predominant use by business people and residents. Avoind drunk driving types may be relevant but I would not know.

We’re robotaxi to be able to handle the multi-city multi-country crowds they could have premium pricing and frequent use just as Uber does. Zero doubt that large cities will provide most volume and almost all the profits.

Robotaxi could create new markets.

If Uber counts it reportedly is far more concentrated in large cities than you suggest.
More like 90% very large cities (I.e. >2 million in urban cores and airports/hotels/hospitals etc.)

Then there is the lucrative market for, say, Model X, robotaxi for executive transport. The major business centers have fleets of for-hire luxury vehicles. How many of those could be replaced is another question. Personally, I tend to prefer a driver who can do other tasks than just driving when on business trips. Luxury hotels worldwide have such fleets available.

 

[AndrewZ]

I don't know if the vehicle can have a significantly different form factor from the 3/Y without requiring new training data, and that will take time to build out if it's significantly different.

Hopefully some clarity is provided on the earnings call but also wouldn't be shocked if details are scant. But with the focus shifting so strongly towards autonomy, investors will have a loooot of questions about this and I think will expect more answers than "March of 9s". Interesting times ahead, for sure.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

The only positive news that would make me believe is some announcement with a city on 8/8 to mass deploy as a test site. Until then this is an emotional amateur hour reaction cuz of Reuters exposing the state of tesla.

Love the salty downvotes from people who know I’m right and have driven out most rational posters from this site just leaving delusional takes that lose people money.

Your posts lack substance and are filled with emotion and name calling.

 

[jerry33]

Should ban Short Selling while they're at it as well? Or should that be still allowed?

Banning naked short selling would go a long way to help. Regular short selling has a lot of downsides.