Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

It is a stretch to say some members offer different views on Tesla and EM.

What we have witnessed just in the last hour was opinion wrapped in stale bread offered as fact.

Please try harder....or better yet, don't.

 

[2daMoon]

You're arguing that Elon is saying one thing and secretly believing another. You haven't yet produced any evidence of that. It's on you to prove that he didn't believe they could do semi-convoying in 2017, or that they would make four styles of solar tile, or that supercharging would be free forever.

Nobody's arguing that Elon's never been wrong. He's made bold predictions and missed the mark multiple times. But it's entirely possible that he believes his predictions when he's making them.

To put it more succinctly, "lying" has an element of there being an intention to deceive.

Saying you plan to do something, or intend to accomplish such an such, and not meeting your estimated timeline would only be lying if it could be demonstrated that the original intent was to benefit in some way as a result of intentionally deceiving people.

To put it another way, only through extreme gyrations of imagination could someone come to the conclusion that Elon Musk lied about his plans and goals. Particularly in light of his achievements.

When someone makes such a claim with no evidence, beyond someone's disappointment and generally negative outlook on life, it cannot be taken seriously at any level.

As an counter-example: Trevor Milton has lied, been found guilty of benefiting financially from his lies, and will pay for having lied though paying fines and serving jail time.

Perhaps a study of how Trevor's deceit was handled by the legal system might better illustrate a step by step to employ in order to establish a claim of Elon having lied. Good luck with that.

 

[Usain]

Tesla isn't a desperate verge-of-broke company anymore-- there's no reason they need to make a bet-the-company bet here with no backup plan.

Nevertheless, I think it is what Elon will do. Maybe there will be a vague notion of a backup plan, but I think he will bet the company on robotaxi. The ball is teed up. Time to swing for the fences.

And that's exactly what I want. When you are trying to break new ground, half measures don't get it done. But if Tesla is truly dedicated to seeing robotaxi happen, the chance of success is pretty high. It looks like the pieces are in place now. It just takes a ton of hard work to put those pieces together.

 

[2daMoon]

The ball is teed up. Time to swing for the fences.

You are mixing metaphors.

Obviously, you are not a bowler.

 

[scaesare]

They have Semis now. Why are we not hearing about the convoy technology? Hint - because they can't do it.

You seem to keep missing the "can" part.

Example: Rear seat heaters in Model 3. Clearly, they "could" enable them. Yet they weren't at release. Some time later, they did.

I can think of about 37 reasons they aren't adding untested functionality to early-release limited volume fleet Semis yet.. can't you?

Perhaps you forgot what was said at the Solar Roof unveiling. I get it, it's been 7.5 years.

What was said in that presentation that was untrue?

It would appear you, like Musk, don't seem to quite comprehend the word "forever" like the rest of society. I thought all Superchargers were going to be powered by the sun? How's that going?

Once again, for those who he was speaking to, it is. As long as they disclose to a new customer the different terms 5 years later, you really see that as an untruth?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1078010341651492865

Mine are still original 11 years and 180,00 miles later. What's the typical lifetime of a car?

Look, if you want to bury your head in the sand on how Elon has misled customers and investors, that's your prerogative. I'll stand on the side of truth.

Nope, I look at context. If you (deliberately) ignore that, you can frame things in all sorts of lights. Given that there are very few "absolutes" in life, looking for the reasonable meaning in context will help you avoid being let down.


In other news, the convenience-store travel mug I bought 30 years ago that offered "free refills forever" that no longer does has me questioning the meaning of life....

 

[wtlloyd]

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/08/nyc-congestion-tax-price-fee-location

Amid all the RT discussion let us not forget there are other forces at work outside our Tesla bubble.

 

[Mengy]

Tesla isn't a desperate verge-of-broke company anymore-- there's no reason they need to make a bet-the-company bet here with no backup plan.

I agree going all in on the RT would be a risky move since FSD isn't solved yet, but we do know it's what Elon strongly wanted to do a few years ago thanks to the Isaacson biography. The Gen3 consumer car was only planned because Lars and Franz convinced Elon to reluctantly change his mind.

Maybe the rapid progress of FSD lately has convinced Elon to go back on that decision? While risky and probably not a wise course of action, we must also admit it is a possibility.

 

[advocate8]

Yes.




Sure. But if it's not L5 (and Tesla has been years-wrong on when it will be, since at least 2016), then the company is in a very very bad position.

Or to put it another way:

Plan A:
Engineer a next-gen vehicle that consumers can buy with controls, and can also be a robotaxi.

Plan B:
Only design a robotaxi, betting on wide L4 if not L5 by end of 2025.


In plan A- if there's no L4 end of 2025, Tesla will still have a #1 selling new vehicle to sell millions of driving volume, revenue, profit, and the mission in large amounts. If there IS L4 end of 2025... they STILL will... plus those vehicles can be RTs immediately at an only slightly-less-than-optimal-but-still-high profit on the RT portion. While they take a year to mod it into a full RT-only design. Not much lost either way.

In plan B-If there IS L4 end of 2025, great! But if there's no L4 end of 2025, the company is now still stuck with the same existing models and an RT they can't actually sell because it can't self drive. Volume stays in the 2.x million range (or they slash 3/Y pricing so deep, without corresponding COGs reduction, to maybe get to 3M?). Either way it's years before they can fix this.



Tesla isn't a desperate verge-of-broke company anymore-- there's no reason they need to make a bet-the-company bet here with no backup plan.

Bingo. “Swing for the fences” and “bet the company” is not required. Tesla can walk and chew gum at the same time. Unless it gets tossed into one of those bizarre artificial and unnessary pressure cooker situations we’ve seen before out of Musk. Which it smells like right now.
Car companies need new, 100-percent deliverable products in the pipeline. Even if Reuters is half wrong here -- and I’m still not hearing a proper denial from Tesla -- 2028 or whatever for a new gen 3 model is egregious. Think about what the aging product lineup will look at that point.

 

[Usain]

I agree going all in on the RT would be a risky move since FSD isn't solved yet, but we do know it's what Elon strongly wanted to do a few years ago thanks to the Isaacson biography. The Gen3 consumer car was only planned because Lars and Franz convinced Elon to reluctantly change his mind.

Maybe the rapid progress of FSD lately has convinced Elon to go back on that decision? While risky and probably not a wise course of action, we must also admit it is a possibility.

Elon is an overgrown child. Tesla is an overgrown startup. Children and startups are not risk averse.

 

[Musskiah]

I wonder if this guy thinks FSD is worth $12k?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777041486464590132

 

[Usain]

Bingo. “Swing for the fences” and “bet the company” is not required. Tesla can walk and chew gum at the same time. Unless it gets tossed into one of those bizarre artificial and unnessary pressure cooker situations we’ve seen before out of Musk. Which it smells like right now.
Car companies need new, 100-percent deliverable products in the pipeline. Even if Reuters is half wrong here -- and I’m still not hearing a proper denial from Tesla -- 2028 or whatever for a new gen 3 model is egregious. Think about what the aging product lineup will look at that point.

Tesla is not about selling cars any more. It's an AI and robotics company. Elon keeps saying this but nobody believes him.

 

[Linkmeup]

Tesla is not about selling cars any more. It's an AI and robotics company. Elon keeps saying this but nobody believes him.

Whatever is the fastest path to sustainability!

 

[Musskiah]

This $8.4B is juat the Realized Energy Revenue projection for 2024. Unrealized Revenue (Deferred Rev + Unsatisfied Performance Obligations) will likely top $6B!

 

[Southpasfan]

The difference between making a RT and a consumer Model 2 will not be significant. They are designed to be built simultaneously on the same line. Tesla will almost certainly (99.99999% probability) do both. But if FSD is solved and approved by regulators by the time it comes out (it won't be in general but may be in VERY limited locales) then Tesla may prioritize production of the RT first. That will take a few days of production (seriously) until that limited market is saturated, then they will proceed with consumer vehicles.

Over time, more regions will get approval and Tesla will prioritize RT over consumer vehicles when they can, but it will be quite awhile before all of the production capacity could be consumed by Robotaxis alone.

Tesla is not stupid. They will make both. Not even sure why we or anyone else is even considering this, it's silly.

And I think while RTs may be more profitable than making cars, RT's only advance the mission to the extent they are adoptable in the location.

Unlike EVs, which will basically completely replace ICE vehicles, RT's are a form of transportation, not the potential only form.

It would be detrimental to the mission to not proceed with a Model 2.

PS, I do believe that RTs are only "more profitable" because at the moment Uber and traditional cab companies charge a huge premium over the cost of the actual car (and, a premium over the cost of the driver). An RT fleet still has the cost of the car and of administration of the program, and insurance and energy. It seems theoretically cheaper to just hail a cab, but there is a reason most people buy at least one car.

 

[Discoducky]

I guess you're implying that only Model X real world data is used for Model X FSD and Model 3 real world data is used for Model 3 FSD, etc.
I don't believe this is true, but I'm no expert on this topic. Perhaps @Discoducky has some insight on this matter.

All data from all vehicles is applicable

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Tesla is not about selling cars any more. It's an AI and robotics company. Elon keeps saying this but nobody believes him.

You forgot energy.

 

[cliff harris]

They have Semis now. Why are we not hearing about the convoy technology? Hint - because they can't do it.

Perhaps you forgot what was said at the Solar Roof unveiling. I get it, it's been 7.5 years.

It would appear you, like Musk, don't seem to quite comprehend the word "forever" like the rest of society. I thought all Superchargers were going to be powered by the sun? How's that going?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1078010341651492865

Look, if you want to bury your head in the sand on how Elon has misled customers and investors, that's your prerogative. I'll stand on the side of truth.

Volkswagen, Audi, Toyota, Porsche, all brands found IN COURT to be lying, deliberately, and will a huge concerted effort to deceive not just customers, but regulators who exist to prevent us literally being poisoned by emissions, or killed due to safety defects. All those chief executives and boards of directors paid effectively ZERO penalty as a result, when many of us would rightfully consider them guilty of thousands of cases of manslaughter...
And toyota running ad campaigns for YEARS saying that their hybrid cars were 'self charging'... and meanwhile many of them heavily lobbied (polite spelling of bribed) politicians to weaken environmental regulation so they could make more money while society paid the price.

...and yet Elon & Tesla is the auto company/CEO you think lies?

 

[Discoducky]

No. I wasn't implying that at all. But there is a reason why Cybertruck doesn't have FSD yet.

As I understand it, most of the stack is not dependent upon a particular model of car and its camera placement. But a small part of it is. And that small part would need training or emulating or something. Even if real-world data is not needed for training of the new platform, real-world testing would be needed.

And I would think it might be difficult to pull off a demo without at least some testing and exposing the new vehicle to public sightings.

But I'm out of my depth here and, like you, I would love to hear what @Discoducky has to say.

After driving mine for a week, it feels like the new EPAS steering is the main reason. The spatial needs are not as substantial. Critical safety code takes a ton of work.

 

[Musskiah]

The massive jump in TAM resulting from the price adjustments to M3 and MY from 2021 to present. When the FED loosens its reigns on interest rates, demand will be robust. This may be one reason why Tesla is deciding to prioritize Robotaxis, because M3 and MY are already priced in a range that over 25% of the US population can access. Keep in mind, if you price in the tax credit, over 50% of the US is in play. The "soft demand" thesis can't argue with facts like these.

 

[capster]

In the not-too-distant future all vehicles will be able to communicate, making accidental collisions a thing of the past.

Cars already communicate with their signals and other lights as well as horns and sirens.

People have been working on vehicle-to-vehicle communications (V2V) for ages but there doesn’t seem to have been that much pressure to adopt it.

Perhaps it is a hammer looking for a nail.