Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Discoducky]

Take some drives away from California or wherever you are. We are in no way on the march of 9s yet. Trust me I want to be. And we're a lot closer now than we were a few months ago. But we're not there yet.

Sorry, but I disagree. When there are ZERO repeatable critical/safety disengagements from the ENTIRE fleet that signals/suggests that the current approach is working/scalable. Next step/milestone is explaining the fractional critical DEs from the 12 stack and remember we are NOT talking about sign issues as these are not yet implemented (aka road closed, school zone...etc)

If you have another suggestion, I'm all ears!

 

[elasalle]

I hadn't gotten an invite for my new Model Y Performance and I really wanted to try Version 12.3, so I signed up for FSD for $99. However, I was given version 11 which is NOT why I signed up. Does anyone know a reason for this? How do I get version 12?

Blast it on Titter include Rohan
Doesn’t seem right

 

[Artful Dodger]

I hadn't gotten an invite for my new Model Y Performance and I really wanted to try Version 12.3, so I signed up for FSD for $99. However, I was given version 11 which is NOT why I signed up. Does anyone know a reason for this? How do I get version 12?

Most likely, it's because you're on a 2024.8.x branch of the car's OS. If that's so you'll have to wait until FSD v12 is released on a car OS that's in a higher revision # than your current version. HTH.

Vehicle Software Updates - Teslascope

View the release notes and other metrics for all Tesla vehicle updates.

teslascope.com

 

[Buckminster]

Have you priced the entire robotaxi fleet? Even at just $20,000 per car, 10 million cars per year is $200 billion dollars in capex to buy the whole fleet. That's every year. Tesla doesn't have that kind of capital. They need to sell enough robotaxis to pay for their portion of the fleet. This also mitigates the Monopoly and competition concerns which will undoubtedly arise.

Indeed, for several years I've held that Tesla will be able to purchase robotaxis in the same proportion as the gross margin on the entire vehicle program. IE: if the hardware has a 30% GM then Tesla will be able to purchase about 30% of the fleet production. This self-funding business model is the way Tesla has always conducted business.

I assumed that energy pays for the fleet which given today's calcs won't be sufficient. However, I'm assuming gross profit per vehicle is $50k so it buys itself within 6 months. Doesn't seem a stretch to me given the war chest they already have. There are numerous other sources of revenue including Optimus where I assume something similar but could payoff itself even faster. Elon would need to break his rule of 30% margin to save the planet.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Each business line is self funding. That means energy products pay for r&d and expansion of other energy products. With robotaxi the cash conversion cycle is what matters. Tesla currently receives payment for the cars it manufactures on average 20 days after the car is built. Yet, they do not have to pay their suppliers for 90 days. This was the basis of Elon's famous quote years ago that the more production Tesla has the better it's cash flow.

If Tesla was to switch to a 6-month cash conversion cycle as you suggest, that would dramatically affect Tesla's business model. I don't think they're going to do that.

You still haven't addressed the anti-competition and Monopoly aspects of restricting sales of robotoxies to third parties. There are more reasons to do those sales then strictly finances.

 

[EQC_]

Who would ever agree to finance tesla by buying RT that could be osborned tomorrow?

Sortof joking, sortof not: isn't that what we've all been doing buying FSD-capable SEXY cars the past few years?

 

[AndrewZ]

FSD disengagement reports were only added ~1 year ago in FSD Beta v11.3.1

If you mean the old "bug report" voice feature anybody could do- those were never being "submitted" anywhere...they are stored locally on the car and Tesla never sees them at all unless you open a service ticket in the app and they then in connection with the service ticket connect into your specific car to check the logs that are saved with the report.

Nope I just mean the clips recorded upon disengaging, when hitting the camera button, the stuff originally extolled during Autonomy Day 2019 that was supposed to help identify problems for fixing

Like Chuck’s ULT where performance was largely unchanged until Tesla put boots on the ground at that specific turn. It’s good to see Tesla is gearing up to put more boots on the ground.

 

[Buckminster]

Each business line is self funding. That means energy products pay for r&d and expansion of other energy products. With robotaxi the cash conversion cycle is what matters. Tesla currently receives payment for the cars it manufactures on average 20 days after the car is built. Yet, they do not have to pay their suppliers for 90 days. This was the basis of Elon's famous quote years ago that the more production Tesla has the better it's cash flow.

If Tesla was to switch to a 6-month cash conversion cycle as you suggest, that would dramatically affect Tesla's business model. I don't think they're going to do that.

You still haven't addressed the anti-competition and Monopoly aspects of restricting sales of robotoxies to third parties. There are more reasons to do those sales then strictly finances.

Not all businesses have pulled their weight. Superchargers, service etc. I don't see how the business model changes anyway if the cars are paid for by other streams (or cash) to support a 6 month head start.

Not sure that a singular Tesla Network is less of a monopoly if the vehicles are public owned. It will also take a while to be a monopoly in any one market.

 

[Musskiah]

This is what I'm interest in most....not 12.4's absolute performance, but the rate of progress of 12.4 vs 12.3 which has been praised so well....I'll keep reading for these opinions.

*12.3 & *12.3.4
Not 12.4, correct.

 

[Knightshade]

. This also mitigates the Monopoly and competition concerns which will undoubtedly arise.

I think a lot of those concerns are from folks who don't have accurate understanding of the relevant laws.

Having a monopoly is entirely legal. Antitrust law doesn't punish you just because you make a thing nobody else had figured out how to make yet.

An unlawful monopoly exists when one firm has market power for a product or service, and it has obtained or maintained that market power, not through competition on the merits, but because the firm has suppressed competition by engaging in anticompetitive conduct.

Since RTs will (everyone seems to be expecting anyway) be offering a largely existing service (taxi/ride hailing) and doing so at lower than everyone elses prices, but without needing any improper/illegal acts to do so there's no grounds for concerns along these lines.

 

[GatorMeat]

Things that significantly improve public safety really shouldn’t be locked behind a subscription pay gate especially when all cars have the hardware and it’s merely a software toggle.

If FSD prevents accidents at high speed, can detect pedestrians and avoid hitting them, etc then doesn’t it seem a bit immoral to not make those features standard across the fleet? Not even for the driver’s sake, for the sake of other users on public roads.

What safety features have ever been mandated to be provided for free by manufacturers? Seat belts? ABS? Airbags?
This is an absurd idea.

 

[hitchhiker]

Have you priced the entire robotaxi fleet? Even at just $20,000 per car, 10 million cars per year is $200 billion dollars in capex to buy the whole fleet. That's every year. Tesla doesn't have that kind of capital. They need to sell enough robotaxis to pay for their portion of the fleet. This also mitigates the Monopoly and competition concerns which will undoubtedly arise.

Tesla has never done all-in world-wide on anything... even when they had the money. They only grow as fast as their expertise and logistics can grow. So they'll start with one or two cities, and expand one or two cities at a time... with cash-flow expanding with it. I doubt it'll be completely self-funding at first, but it'll become self-funding reasonably fast.

And I'm not entirely sure the first cities will be in the US. They'll be wherever they can get regulatory approval the fastest.

 

[Joe F]

I agree I had my 2017 MS with 12.3.4 drive me to my colonoscopy ( ) and it did intervention free and smooth as glass.....then got lost in the parking lot one business over from Dr. office.

Maybe it detected a big a-hole behind the wheel and thought the car was stolen and went into limp mode?

 

[Knightshade]

And I'm not entirely sure the first cities will be in the US. They'll be wherever they can get regulatory approval the fastest.

As noted....a lot... there's already a dozen or more US states where they can put RTs on the road immediately, without any "regulators" needing to approve anything.

That said- they'll be in the US because that and Canada are the only places even the Beta have been able to work so far, and Canada is certainly more heavily regulated than the US is.

What will be most telling is what happens in CA... unlike the 12+ states where you can just throw RTs on the road immediately as long as they say "These are RTs, trust me bro! also I have insurance" California DOES actually require licensing and approval from regulators-- and again unlike those states requires some detailed reporting of the performance of your RT fleet.... so Tesla might well avoid CA out of the gate... OTOH it's the place they've got the most data and where from most reports FSD is already over trained and works the best.

 

[Knightshade]

BTW, the relevant text on Tesla's FSD page looks like this:

It sort of suggests that those who purchased FSD outright might get full autonomy eventually. But I can't find anywhere it says that when full autonomy is achieved, then full autonomy will actually be included with your purchase.

I just hope Tesla will clarify this.

Only those who bought FSD before ~March 2019 were every promised* any autonomy (ie higher than L2) at all.

*promised as in the actual purchase page/description of what you were buying promised you actual autonomy of L4 (or arguably L5)--- not referring to any aspirational things Elon might have said at various times


Around April 2019 they began selling the "new" version of FSD with very different wording, that never promised anything about L2 with your purchase.


That said- I believe if Tesla is able to deliver >L2 to existing/legacy fleet they will do so to both groups of buyers.

But if they can not then only the first (much smaller-- and smaller still since many have since traded their "earlier version" FSD in by now) are "owed" something legally--- we just discussed that aspect in the options thread, the guesstimate at the # in this group is sub 50k at this point (based on known # of cars sold in that period, the take rate estimates from the tracker, and there being at least some % that are no longer in service or that traded their cars in)

 

[Buckminster]

Another reason for robotaxis being owned by Tesla is how it would work if they are not. I buy a robotaxi and decide to place it on the network at weekends only. During weekdays it takes me to work. It drops me off and then needs to find a car parking space in an unspecified car park. This is more complicated than just going to its next pickup spot. I send it to the pizza shop to collect my lunch clogging the roads and not even earning. I have to phone the pizza company to say it’s 50 yards away because it couldn’t park in front. How do I get it cleaned? I cant drive it through the Carwash.. Tesla will need to solve that for network usage but not private usage. What happens if I decide to take it off the network altogether. It’s my car but will be limited to only Tesla network or my app control.

 

[SOULPEDL]

FSD V12.3.4 can now see most dips in Az depending on size, small one's are hit and miss, but acceptable enough not to disengage. That is HUGE for me, having about 2-3 in any direction around our home. On V12.3.3 it could not see any dips (we're talking small but annoying @ 1' wide, 2" dip is all). I value the suspension system.

Based on the broad improvements I'm reading here, and confirmed some on my AM drive, I'm pulling in a pilot launch date prediction by 25% from before ("this year" was my last guess). I have one M3 ready for testing right now. Let's Go!

I can't decide if it will be unOccupied or unSupervised first, but leaning towards removing the human first (and locally) to get a solid measurement on critical DEs without the human intervention. Risky so do it small... like here in Chandler Az. We would also see Waymo and Tesla compared on the same turf. Weather is perfect here today!

Having sonar on both vehicles, I still don't have parking, and we are all missing reverse and ASS (Summon). So... besides that and the Hwy stack, what's missing besides the general march of 9's and weather etc?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Only those who bought FSD before ~March 2019 were every promised* any autonomy (ie higher than L2) at all.

*promised as in the actual purchase page/description of what you were buying promised you actual autonomy of L4 (or arguably L5)--- not referring to any aspirational things Elon might have said at various times


Around April 2019 they began selling the "new" version of FSD with very different wording, that never promised anything about L2 with your purchase.


That said- I believe if Tesla is able to deliver >L2 to existing/legacy fleet they will do so to both groups of buyers.

But if they can not then only the first (much smaller-- and smaller still since many have since traded their "earlier version" FSD in by now) are "owed" something legally--- we just discussed that aspect in the options thread, the guesstimate at the # in this group is sub 50k at this point (based on known # of cars sold in that period, the take rate estimates from the tracker, and there being at least some % that are no longer in service or that traded their cars in)

Exactly, we have one of those and kept it for this reason. (FSD on a M3 RWD, spec'd at 325 mi range).

 

[Unpilot]

Had three separate trips this morning. All intervention free. Really impressive.

I found if I let it figure out the best way to handle a situation without my help...it does.

This morning I'm in far right lane of three lane Rd. I will need to turn right in a mile. Traffic is slowly inching forward. I can see the cars in front of me getting into center lane for some reason...then my car does the same ( smoothly sliding in-between two cars)...then I see why..traffic cones for a blocked lane. As soon as we are past that...right back over.

Very impressive.

If SP drops on 1st quarter earnings...I'm buying.

 

[Knightshade]

Having sonar on both vehicles, I still don't have parking, and we are all missing reverse and ASS (Summon). So... besides that and the Hwy stack, what's missing besides the general march of 9's and weather etc?

Missing for a system that can operate without a human in the drivers seat?

A complete OEDR, which it does not have presently
A system to perform the dynamic DDT fallback task, which is does not have presently
Defining the ODD of the L4 system (which will almost certainly at least include weather, of not other factors)

L4 is not just "L2 that gets really good"- there's fundamental functional pieces that do not exist in an L2 system that are required for L4.


Feels like we JUST had this conversation in this forum like... a couple days ago... for roughly the 793rd time.... so I guess try 794 at suggesting folks wanting to understand this stuff in detail instead either go here where this stuff is discussed ad nauseum

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

Or go here and actually read SAE J3016

https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/54/02/2d5919914cfe9549e79721b12e66/j3016-202104.pdf