Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tony73]

According to that wild rumour being reported, Tesla is scrapping the new unboxed production line for the $25k car and instead building a massive data centre there. I find that unbelievable for two reasons. First, you would still need the new gigatexas unboxed production line for building robotaxis (unless the plan is to start with model Y/3 based robotaxis), and secondly Tesla can fit both a large data centre and the new production line in gigatexas no problem.

You don’t “need” the unboxed line to build the robotaxi. A regular line would build it even if it’s not as efficient.

Elon may very well have decided that speed to market trumps efficiency. If you believe like he does that Tesla is worth zero without FSD, everything that is happening makes sense.

All the handwringing over the next gen car is kind of pointless. Tesla is first and foremost an autonomy play. Anyone that does not believe in autonomy should not be in the name.

The pivot to autonomy just appeared sooner than we all expected.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Would be pretty funny if Elon Musk scales training compute 1000x and uses all the electricity in the United States, raising prices wildly, and forcing everyone to stop buying EVs.

"It's for the mission" repeat the lemmings after taking their sedative.



P.S. - as I may have to explain for some, that was a joke.

 

[jerry33]

IF this is true then just like with the late 4680 cells then the massive risk is no huge increases in vehicle sales for many years.

Why do you think the 4680 cells are late? The original presentation had a six year (probably optimistic) timeline and it hasn't been six years yet. Just because a number of people say they are late doesn't mean they are late. Tesla is working the plan and making pretty good progress.

 

[Krugerrand]

Is this manipulation or is there a rational reason for Fisker's value to more than double today?

View attachment 1038785

In my opinion, Tesla is more valuable than the value currently indicated by TSLA.

Computer glitch.

 

[AudubonB]

A fun day down south today….back in Alaska in a bit

 

[Tony73]

Why do you think the 4680 cells are late? The original presentation had a six year (probably optimistic) timeline and it hasn't been six years yet. Just because a number of people say they are late doesn't mean they are late. Tesla is working the plan and making pretty good progress.

Even with the IRA, I doubt Tesla will eke out much of a cost advantage over CATL and BYD.

 

[AudubonB]

 

[sunwarriors]

I thought Drew was going to be a major cofounder for CEO status in an Elon succession scenario. LOL

Also shout out to everyone here who thought Twitter would hire Sheryl Sandberg or other names within Elons personal sphere as CEO when I said it would be someone completely unknown to us.

This isn’t over yet. I keep warning yall that double digits is going to happen if no $25k car in the next two years as our valuation gets re rated to a car company with no working robotaxi. You keep downvoting me when I’m trying to save ya money!

Pro tip, Hong Kong market approved bitcoin ETF today the bull cycle is still in early phases. Tesla stock ain’t doing anything the next 1-2 years. Not a trade, but based off the pure fundamentals of the disasterous corporate strategy. Nothing is gonna save this stock until a mass produced cheap car or hope for a near term mass produced Optimus.

If you’re still here you (1) have Tesla is a taxable account so are a forced hodler like my taxable shares, (2) are too blinded by Elon cultism to see the reality and are not a real investor, or (3) have sunk cost fallacy at not selling now despite the obvious obvious red flags!!!

Drew left!!! FFS!!! how quick the worship narrative changes from “Tesla fine look at seasoned vets like Drew still here” to “Tesla has so much great talent random Drew replacement will step up and be just as good”.

Keep finding bull narratives while bank account keeps going down

I think there is little room for even constructive discussion here, outside of all the bulls. But, generally, past performance is not indicative of future returns when it comes to stocks.

Tesla of 10-15 years ago is not the Tesla of today. The EV market is far more mature/competitive now (I've mentioned this before and consumers have more choice) and Tesla had to have massive price cuts (remember the $68k MY?). Cutting price, 0% interest rates in China, layoffs, those are all negatives and even though it's true, that companies do it all the time, the general growth in EVs is sorta dead for Tesla so it's now pushing/harping FSD/robotaxis that will justify it's valuation. It's up to you/me/everyone if they buy that narrative at this point. Drew and some execs leaving is irrelevant in the long term discussion I feel and we're all wasting too much time on it to care what the real/hidden reason is. I don't and it doesn't matter I feel longer term.

Layoffs, no matter what is bad for morale and there can be subsequent cuts so folks on the edge may start to look for other jobs affecting productivity, at least top performers. I hope the folks laid off at least get severance unlike Twitter. I also don't buy why ultra smart AI folks would want to work for Tesla when AI startups probably have more monetary upside simply from a valuation perspective, but that train is sorta sailing off as well I think.


Bottom line for folks is whether you believe in AI/Robotaxi and Tesla will dominate that sector in the future. I'm generally not a believer in robotaxi's even though I agree that Tesla alone will run the fleet and not individual users due to maintenance, damage/repair/etc/dirty cars that it's just not worth a normal semi-well off person to bother with it. They would also be competing directly with Tesla who can do it for cheaper (look at Hertz) and has all the internal control/benefits to clean/fix/get cheaper cars on the road. Robotaxis, (all IMO) will go the way of the Segway and won't amount to much, but like all the opinions here, they're all like bholes and we have them. I also think Uber/Lyft drivers are sorta the cheap labor (with no benefits) and spending billions on robotaxi's to replace that industry, not to mention regulatory hurdles (any 1 serious accident like Cruise and we can see it held up again), seems so far off still to me.

Disclosure: I have no stock/monetary position in Tesla (outside of probably retirement index stuff).

 

[Carl Raymond]

Great visual of the potential of what Tesla and Boring Company are partnering on to work towards -

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779772236645183811

Somewhere in the bottom pic is an exhaust stack, venting the tunnel below. Get caught downwind from it and you get a sense your life expectancy is falling with each breath. Tunnels and electrification are a matched pair. ICE defenders forget this.

 

[AudubonB]

<removed photo>

 

[AndrewZ]

Elon has been saying autonomy is the key to
Tesla’s value for years now, word for word said it was “the difference between Tesla being worth a lot or basically nothing” and that he believes a new EV company can’t succeed without electrification and autonomy in tandem.

That can be a very good thing or a very bad thing depending on your personal beliefs around how close this stuff actually is

 

[Krugerrand]

Would be pretty funny if Elon Musk scales training compute 1000x and uses all the electricity in the United States, raising prices wildly, and forcing everyone to stop buying EVs.

"It's for the mission" repeat the lemmings after taking their sedative.



P.S. - as I may have to explain for some, that was a joke.

Jokes are usually funny. Don’t quit your day job.

View attachment 1038800
A fun day down south today….back in Alaska in a bit

What are you doing driving one of those death machines?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Executive that high up are often given the option to resign to save face rather than be fired.

Personally, I think Drew didn't want to spend family time commuting to Mumbai.

 

[philw1776]

I worded this poorly. I meant with spacex she is not known for her engineering work. She works on the sales side and managing customers. (Which she does very well)

Missed the significant role Elon gave her in charge of the entire Starship program in Texas. Engineering & project management.

 

[Fred42]

View attachment 1038803

looks better inside than out

 

[DarkandStormy]

Why do you think the 4680 cells are late? The original presentation had a six year (probably optimistic) timeline and it hasn't been six years yet. Just because a number of people say they are late doesn't mean they are late. Tesla is working the plan and making pretty good progress.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34112343/tesla-battery-day-cutting-battery-cost/

 

[InTheShadows]

https://www.tiktok.com/video/7357758176504089898

(pedal can get stuck in trim

mirror:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779571445930324456

Possible explanation for the delivery halt

All I have to say is I mashed my pedal this am while it was plugged in and pressed as hard as I possibly could on it trying to slide it forward and it moved about 1/16” after about 20 seconds of this pressure. There is no way our pedal is coming off with normal use. VIN mid 4000’s delivery last week.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

looks better inside than out

"That's what she sai....." j/k. I agree with you.

 

[woodisgood]

The pivot to autonomy just appeared sooner than we all expected.

Yes - make no mistake, the company is pivoting hard. Turbulence is to be expected.

FSD’s progress has been witnessed by all of us in real-time - including folks inside Tesla. Not sure there was a lot of internal belief about it happening in any near-term timeframe until recently, so many things that should/could have been done in preparation for launch fell by the wayside, with the humdrum of running an auto business taking priority.

 

[Usain]

I also don't buy why ultra smart AI folks would want to work for Tesla when AI startups probably have more monetary upside simply from a valuation perspective, but that train is sorta sailing off as well I think.

As a veteran of many, many startups, I can tell you the answer to that one.

Working for a startup is very risky. It can be super-fun and super-lucrative if you work hard and get lucky. You are usually making a lot less with longer hours than working somewhere else.

And if there is no liquidity event within a few years then you are probably looking for employment elsewhere. Even if there is a liquidity event, there is no guarantee that you are going to make a lot of money from stock options. Sometimes startups are bought for very little money. Sometimes dilution is so bad that your stock options become almost worthless.

And yes, sometimes you hit it just right and come out with a nice pile of cash. I've experienced all of the above.

But startups are definitely not for everyone.